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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Which Political Grouping Will Win The Most Parliamentary Seats?

I usually don’t give too many predictions but here is one for you. The current political situation will change dramatically before we go to the polls. I will not go further to be as arrogant as some commentators here who are fond of adding statements like; you can take that to the bank.

This time round, it is the electorate who will set the agenda and you can be sure that corruption will be very high on the list of issues that will dominate this election with the Kroll report and other reports that have not yet been released dominating center stage.

Ultimately these will be the elections where Kenyans will vote strongly against corruption.

However the current reality on the ground is that the same party whose presidential candidate seems to be leading in polls, are also currently set to win the highest number of parliamentary seats if the polls were to take place today (but please don’t get too excited, I told you that things are bound to change.)

The issue of predicting which political party will win the majority of parliamentary seats is fairly simple in Kenya. You just need to look at one province and the party that wins the majority of seats in that province is bound to win that same competition nationally, That province is of course the vast Rift Valley which has the highest number of parliamentary seats.

In spite of the strong Kikuyu influence in this province, the party that is currently leading in Rift Valley is ODM. There are several factors that have contributed to this state of affairs.

One of the major ones is historical. The Kalenjins in the Rift Valley have always felt extremely wary of members of the house of Mumbi. This hostility dates back to the Kenyatta administration when many members of that community settled in fertile land in the Rift Valley most of which was grabbed from Kalenjins. It is therefore pretty difficult for a Kalenjin on the ground to be convinced to cast their vote for a Kikuyu candidate when they have a choice to cast their lot with another community, unlike in 2002.

The president’s men have clearly recognized this fact and their strategy for the Rift Valley is to use Kanu. The reason why this is not proving to be successful leads us to the second major factor. And that is the fact that most of the strongest and most influential parliamentary candidates are in ODM. It will be an uphill task for anybody to unseat the kingpins from the vast Rift Valley that are now milling around the ODM ship.

The fact that ODM is currently leading in the parliamentary seats stakes is further confirmation of the leaked polls that seem to suggest that Raila Odinga is leading. But let’s be careful here with predictions on winners, parliament has not adjourned sine die yet. The Major realignments and defections that will take place then will set the stage for the final showdown, where I can assure you at this early date that the game in Rift Valley will be extremely dirty.

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5 comments:

bloggeratti said...

Point to note 1:
This years election has the highest number of registered voters (Appx. 14 million, going by media reports)

Point to note 2:
ODM is already crying foul about poll rigging plans in place by the govt.

Point to note 3:
Kivuitu's tenure at ECK will be over by DEC '03.

Point to note 4:
Despite one of the highest voter registration exercise in the history of Kenya, the time when polling stations should be open for voting has been reduced from 7am to 7pm, to 8am to 5pm.

Point to note 5:
New polling stations will be added, according to ECK, yet voter registration is over (????)

No points for guessing what gova's game plan is, and from Emilio's confident arrogance on TV, the election is as good as won.

But, time will tell.

Anonymous said...

kibaki tene? Where on earth. You have to go home. Anybody associating with moi should go home. We will vote you out Mr Kibaki

Joseph Obiero said...

I was one of the fortunate few who managed to engage ODM luminary Raila Odinga after his visit to Denver. I have been resident in the US after obtaining my green card in 1996 and starting my career as a Walmart line stores clerk. I landed home over the weekend and the politics that I’ve found here are as hot as I could not have imagined. The “king” gets here on Saturday and I would wish to urge you all to join the crowds at the airport to welcome him home. We in the diaspora have avoided tribal politics and I was drawn to the meeting after following the events at home closely, during which period I started to feel that the man known variously as "Tinga" and lately "Hammer" may be a true agent of change in homeland politics.
After his keynote address at Denver, I and a group of about 6 friends engaged Raila for about 15 minutes in the hallway next to the auditorium. I will replicate our conversation and his answers. They are not verbatim, but give the gist of all what he said as accurately as my mind can remember.

JO: 'When you talk broadly about radical changes, can you tell us in specifics, without resorting to generalities?

Raila(R.O): 'The changes I envisage and that I have promised to address within my first 90 days in office are; Dismantling the cabals of tribalism that are choking our country and resulting in runaway corruption and frustration for the people of Kenya. Since the Moi era, or 'error' as I call it, prime jobs have been stuffed with semi-literate Kalenjin herdsmen. I imagined that Kibaki would correct this but in fact he mantained many of them, and those he sent home were replaced by his kleptocratic tribesmen. As we all know, 90% of all thievery is perpetrated by one tribe in Kenya and these are the people I must put behind bars and later on catch up with the Goldenberg and the anglo-leasing – we call it anglo-fleecing – crooks.

J.O: But people see the likes of William Ruto in your team.

R.O: The matter of bringing in corrupt leaders was started by Kibaki, and in truth, do not be surprised if you find that the likes of William Ruto find themselves behind bars after the elections, because he has cases pending against him. I will not interfere with the courts at all. For now, Ruto is a political necessity, but you know in politics we do have blind loyalties and if we are to win this battle, we have to use all options available. With Uhuru running against Kibaki, the Kikuyus will be divided for sure.

Note: This has since changed, since Uhuru joined Kibaki, but I am certain from what I have heard on the ground, the situation is even worse than opposing Kibaki.

J.O: You seem to have won over Western province, with Musalia as a running mate, but are you sure they will not blackmail you like they did Kibaki when Kombo forced certain key appointments on him especially after the referendum?

R.O: In my case, this will not happen. Musalia has a much weaker character in person than Kombo, and you know the joke about humble Luhya servants as cooks and watchmen...Anyway, jokes aside, Luhya disunity is a blessing for us and I would never have wanted it any other way. Had the Luhyas united, my plans would have been impossible to fulfil because my nomination was at stake, and if someone like Musalia ruled Kenya, he would not be able to effect the radical changes I talk about. His father was a Moi loyalist and even now if you look carefully, Musalia, like Kalonnzo, still behaves as if he is beholden to Moi and cannot talk ill of, much less put Moi behind bars where he belongs. Musalia was created by Moi and given his seat after his father's death since Musalia's was one of Moi's key men and a beneficiary of the grand corruption of the day. I am aware of this but I recognize that I cannot get perfect partners, and truly my friends; there is an election to be won.

JO: When are you planning to go back home?

RO: I am scheduled to be back by Saturday 22nd/Sept/2007 and I would wish to take this opportunity to invite you home for Easter next year, and I assure you that it will take you a long time before you interact with the Kikuyu or Kalenjin officials you used to see everywhere-unless of course you plan to visit Kamiti! In closing, I want to tell you that Hon Muite prepared a long list of charges against Moi and his sons way back in the 90's when we first thought liberation was at hand. That list is still valid in 2008 and you will read about it in the future. Many of these retired Rift Valley barons will spend their last days incarcerated.

JO: How are you prepared to handle the crisis being created by the Kibaki team regarding your involvement in the 82 coup, since they are using media such as the Government owned Kenya times to smear your name?


RO: I truely do not regret my role in the 82 coup, in fact I relish my contribution to that struggle. Those who died are martyrs, and every free country; Cuba, Venezuela, etc had its share of revolutionary martyrs. Even here in America! If it was needed, or was an only option, I would do the same again for the sake of my people. We cannot shy from confronting forces of evil by armed means if need be. That was the beginning of the struggle that got Moi out and the continuing struggle to now get Kibaki out. Kenyans have waited for too long to get rid of these dictators.

SUMMARY
There was much more and I cannot enumerate everything here. But the meeting was memorable and I hope to meet him here also. For all those who are available, let us all meet him when he comes back home for his grand arrival party. I will tell you more when we meet there.


Joseph-Oloo Obiero, Denver.

Billy said...

Enemies of change have resorted to propaganda. There is nobody in denver by the name Joseph Oloo Obiero. Everybody who talked to Raila had their pictures taken. We know each other here in Denver pretty well. Whoever started this propaganda must be a true son of Mt. Kenya region.

Anonymous said...

The comments by one Joseph Oloo Obiero bear all the hallmarks of a retarded person. There is no way Raila could have made such comments. Are you really from Denver??? You do not sound sane to me. What are you doing in Colorado with such a small mind anyway??? I reject your deposit with the utmost contempt.

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