Many times for the protection of my sources, I cannot name them. This is the case with the fascinating figures I hereby publish here which show the possible votes Raila Odinga would get, were Kenyans to go to the polls today.
Kindly note that I am NOT making any predictions. Two and a half months is a long time and anything can happen.
Interestingly the estimates exclude Central province and Eastern where it is widely expected that candidate Raila will be whitewashed and will probably get very few votes. However the following is the percentage of votes he would get from the remaining 6 provinces were elections to be held today;
Nyanza 76%
Western 44%
North Eastern 68%
Coast 54%
Nairobi 44%
Rift Valley 60%
According to these figures Raila Odinga would win the elections were it to take place today. I am certain that with the Uhuru mistake that has been made, these figures are bound to go up further in places like Coast, Nairobi and Rift Valley. In fact if the Kibaki team continues to blunder the way it has so far, it is going to be an anti-climax because they will hardly be any competition to get excited about.
Still, as any political analyst worth their salt would tell you we have a long time to go to Election Day and most of all the real campaigns have hardly began. For instance it is widely expected that a significant portion of Baba Giddy’s vast ill-gotten wealth will be poured into the Mwai Kibaki re-election campaign. We are talking a couple of billions of Kenya shillings at the very least. Now that is not the kind of money you pour into Kenya today and fail to get results. In short there is a long grueling campaign ahead for the 3 major candidates and within that time, the situation can change completely from what we have on the ground today.
It is now clear that to Moi these elections are very similar to the first multi-party elections of 1992 but the stakes are even higher this time. Not to mention that in 1992, it was much easier to rig and buy people. Let me remind you that that is the year when so much money was printed that Kenyans have never recovered. This time round money may not be printed (at least not officially) but we can expect plenty of nasty mischief.
Already Baba Giddy is making it clear that he will not hold anything back. He has now brought up the issue of the 1982 failed coup attempt yet again and obviously this is meant to discredit one Raila Odinga.
Kenyans who have heard rumours to the effect that information is power, are about to find out that this is not a rumour after all but the truth. Moi has a lot of information on Raila Odinga and those who do not like the Langata MP should prepare themselves for a treat as plenty of highly tasty “morsels of scandal” will be released from Baba Giddy, who is just getting warmed up now. Some of it directly but a lot of it will be conveniently leaked out to news sources.
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