Uhuru’s announcement has cost the president a lot of votes. Here’s why…
How many mistakes can a presidential candidate make and still get away with it, without being punished for them, even when they are the incumbent? That is a question whose answer Kenyans will soon find out.
However in keeping to my contract with my dear readers (which I take very seriously) I have done a little research on possible voting patterns countrywide and the results have surprised even me. But more on that in my next post.
In the grassroots (where I need not remind you all good folks, is where the majority of votes are) the move by official leader of the opposition, Uhuru Kenyatta to support President’s Kibaki’s re-election bid has cost the president a number of votes.
What is now emerging is a clear anti-kikuyu sentiment that is creeping into some of the president’s long time strongholds. Uhuru’s announcement is being viewed by many ordinary Kenyans as a clear sign of the tribalism that many have suspected runs very deeply through the current administration.
The big danger here is that it hardly matters whether this is true or not. What matters at this juncture and matters terribly, is the public perception of things.
What would I have done if I was running the Kibaki campaign?
I would have made every effort to ensure that the President keeps Uhuru as far as possible from my re-election bid. Even snub him, if necessary. This would have helped the president a great deal to avoid the tribalism label. It is no accident that the alternative press political weekly, The Weekly Citizen has this week carried a Kikuyu bashing headline talking about what they call “naked tribalism.”
Let us ask ourselves the critical question. How many votes would Uhuru bring to the table in a Kibaki campaign? Or let us ask the question even more bluntly; what would the president have lost had Uhuru remained in the opposition. According to me the answer to that question is very little, almost zero. But the truth is that the president has lost tremendously as a result of Uhuru’s announcement backing him.
Which leads me to ask that question that you guys must be getting sick of hearing about in this blog, but alas it needs to be asked. Namely, who is running the president’s re-election campaign and what experience do they have in politics?
Interestingly in the same way that the Kibaki administration has mostly been a blundering indecisive one, his re-election campaign is being run in the same way and that does not auger well for his re-election prospects.
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