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Monday, September 17, 2007

Why Uhuru Announcement Was A Big Blunder For The Kibaki Camp

Uhuru’s announcement has cost the president a lot of votes. Here’s why…

How many mistakes can a presidential candidate make and still get away with it, without being punished for them, even when they are the incumbent? That is a question whose answer Kenyans will soon find out.

However in keeping to my contract with my dear readers (which I take very seriously) I have done a little research on possible voting patterns countrywide and the results have surprised even me. But more on that in my next post.

In the grassroots (where I need not remind you all good folks, is where the majority of votes are) the move by official leader of the opposition, Uhuru Kenyatta to support President’s Kibaki’s re-election bid has cost the president a number of votes.

What is now emerging is a clear anti-kikuyu sentiment that is creeping into some of the president’s long time strongholds. Uhuru’s announcement is being viewed by many ordinary Kenyans as a clear sign of the tribalism that many have suspected runs very deeply through the current administration.

The big danger here is that it hardly matters whether this is true or not. What matters at this juncture and matters terribly, is the public perception of things.

What would I have done if I was running the Kibaki campaign?

I would have made every effort to ensure that the President keeps Uhuru as far as possible from my re-election bid. Even snub him, if necessary. This would have helped the president a great deal to avoid the tribalism label. It is no accident that the alternative press political weekly, The Weekly Citizen has this week carried a Kikuyu bashing headline talking about what they call “naked tribalism.”

Let us ask ourselves the critical question. How many votes would Uhuru bring to the table in a Kibaki campaign? Or let us ask the question even more bluntly; what would the president have lost had Uhuru remained in the opposition. According to me the answer to that question is very little, almost zero. But the truth is that the president has lost tremendously as a result of Uhuru’s announcement backing him.

Which leads me to ask that question that you guys must be getting sick of hearing about in this blog, but alas it needs to be asked. Namely, who is running the president’s re-election campaign and what experience do they have in politics?

Interestingly in the same way that the Kibaki administration has mostly been a blundering indecisive one, his re-election campaign is being run in the same way and that does not auger well for his re-election prospects.


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8 comments:

Ken said...

I like reading your blog, but with all due respect, refrain from being carried away from Tribal Politics. Maybe President Kibaki did not see it as you see it because he is not as tribal as you. Further more, PNU has constituents parties that represent all parts of the country. All I see is Uhuru Kenyatta re strategising for 2012. If he remained in ODM, KANU could have been swallowed because their request ODM remain a party of parties was rejected. But being in a coalition(PNU) that respects individual parties and has a chance of winning the election, KANU has a opportunity to reinvent itself in the future. Besides, with Kenyan politicians, most would have jumped ship from KANU to other more popular parties to seek re election leaving KANU as a shell. But now, many may remain in KANU and fight for their seat using its ticket. Under the circumstances, I think it was a wise move by Uhuru Kenyatta. Only Tribal leaders will start smearing him and Kibaki with aim of achieaving anti-Kikuyu sentiments.

I hope one day as Kenyans we get over this and dwell on real issues affecting Kenyans.

Vee said...

I agree with Ken. We need to move away from Tribal politics! For one we should agree that we are tribalists and move on to National building. You don't hear the Spanish Minority in US being chastized for voting their own, or the whites their own or the blacks their own. It's simply a survival strategy. After 200+ years of civilization if the American's haven't phased out their form of tribalism then I don't see why we should with our mere 40+ years of freedom.

Second, I support the angle at which Uhuru has dealt with 2007 campaigns. He wasn't ready in 2002 and he wasn't ready now. The only way he can get voted back in his Gatundu constituency is if he supports Kibaki. KANU can survive under the PNU guise while they re strategise for 2012. As Ken said in ODM, KANU & Uhuru would be no more.

On Kibaki's part Uhuru will provide much needed funds and some the KANU strongholds that PNU was unlikely to get for their own. They might be 4-5 constituencies but they are constituencies all the same.

In summary, it doesn't matter how what has happened is perceived... it's all about them securing for themselves power while we sit and watch the drama unfold. I'm not afriad of what will happen come 2008 what is of concern to me is this tribalistic thinking. It needs to go, we need to start thinking ideas and issues not parties and personalities!

Anonymous said...

Chris your full of mucus or puss in your big head!!! How did you even pass your kindergaten grade? basic arthimetic seems to be a nightmare for you. How come you ended up having a breakthough (even though figures are terribly wrong?)... c'mon speak up! dont shit on yourself. Of, course your son did that for you... right? I cant belive your depending on your 2nd grade son to activate your sophomore pea-sized mucus-oozing brain!!!

Hit the gound nice and realize your totaly wrong, the idiot running (Odinga Dictatorship Movement) cannot even spell his name let alone fight for silly MOU's that cannot put a handfull of Omena on his idiotic clowns!

Walman. Wisconsin

Anonymous said...

I object to the abusive vitriol Walman is churning out against Kumekucha.

JM

Anonymous said...

I think rather than shurning abuses at each other there is need for constructive criticism and no space for emotions but for informed comments. I agree with Kumekucha commentary for the following reasons: Ask yourself why would Moi or for that matter his protegy - Uhuru back someone they have overtly criticised in the past few years or even months?
Why would the leader of opposition throw in the towel when there was a credible opposition to give him the platform for effective coalitions and safeguard what he stood for during referendum, namely tribalism?
No matter the reasons for his joining the Kibaki camp, his historical criticisms of Kibaki's move to poach KANU MPs will show you that the sudden change of tactic is nothing but to make Uhuru relevant. However the question is relevant - WHERE? Believe me, the perception of the common mwananchi, me included is that Uhuru was forced to change tactics: 1) because Moi, more than safeguarding his interests, he is against Odinga's presidency for sheer anger for what Odinga did for Moi in the wake of formation of NARC - and Uhuru is any way and will forever remain Moi's project; 2) the Gatundu factor embedded in tribalism which needed Uhuru to remain relevant in his constituency to retain his parliamentary seat; and 3) was the fact that Uhuru had just lost his magic touch in politics considering he had been swallowed with the eminence of the likes of Ruto, Odinga, and Musyoka and now Mudavadi and he had to remake himself....the only way being going back to Tribalism. It is important for everyone to know that the Kenyan electorate has undergone tremendous dynamism over the years and in the process the space for public opinion getting enlarged - Kenyans are therefore quietly seeing how events are unfolding and are aware of the game of triablism taking roots in Kenyan again....perpetrated by former presidencies and now evident in the incumbent and we can be sure that come the general elections, no matter how much money or propaganda the incumbent will pour - Kenyans will end up making the right choice - not on the basis of cash but their well informed conscience.
Onchwari. C., India

Ochieng said...

it is sad how we can get so nasty on Kumekucha... manners must be maintained. by the way Walman is in Wincosin. how informed is he of the reality we face back here at home? probably looking for some appointment by supporting vulgarity? not in Kenya try it out in Winco. avoid it avoid it man.
Tobias

Javan Onguru, Esq. said...

Hi patriotic Kenyans,

There is an SMS circulating among the Mt. Kenya tribes which is very dangerous to our good nation, and I quote "we are sending this message to you in strict confidence of our own, our Government has set aside some Ksh 5 billion to enable our people purchase Safaricom shares.The money is available at Equity bank but first you will need to register first with MEGA and provide all your personal details.The share will be bought for you by MEGA. We have set aside 75% of the shares for Embus,Merus,and Kikuyus. Pass the text to only our people" end of quote.

Is this the Kenya we want? Can they deny this? Let the rest of Kenya know who we are dealing with!

Anonymous said...

Uhuru threatened to take Kibaki to court for poaching Kanu MPs to his cabinet. Now Uhuru has poached himself to Kibaki. Uhuru said ODM lacks structures - what structures does PNU have? As one says it is perception that matter. To many of us Uhuru is going back to the House of Mumbi and thus those who dont belong to the house of Mumbi will vote with their feet. I agree - Uhuru is taking away Kibaki's votes than helping Kibaki win.

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