The latest Steadmann poll puts ODM presidential hopeful, Raila Odinga slightly ahead of President Kibaki. 44% of those polled said that they would vote for Raila while 40% said they preferred President Kibaki. Only 10% said that they would for Kalonzo Musyoka.
This is the only survey by Steadmann where it has been revealed how the survey was financed. This particular one was paid for by the Standard Newspapers group.
However the poll was conducted ONLY in Nairobi.
This is very surprising because most analysts (including those leaving comments in this blog have always been sure of a Kibaki victory in Nairobi.)
Of course there are also those wonderful Kumekucha readers who believe that any poll that puts Raila ahead of Kibaki has been rigged or is just plain propaganda. I will be very interested in what Jeff and PKW have to say about this latest Steadmann poll.
As reported here, some days back, all the figures coming in are telling a story that nobody wants to believe. They seem to suggest that if the election were to be held today, Raila Odinga would not only win, he would win by a landslide.
Other strategies to halt Raila’s popularity that even I thought would work very effectively seem to be falling flat. For instance the circumcision thing that Simeon Nyachae tried to pull off in his Kisii stronghold has backfired badly and we are seeing photographs on the front page of newspapers of Kisii people burning effigies of Mr Nyachae.
Deep in Central province, there is a lot of discontent against the Kibaki administration. In my view, were the elections to be held today, Raila would get no less than 15% of the votes in Central province and probably even more.
So what has happened? What has changed in Kenya?
Actually a lot seems to have happened. For starters the younger generation is starting to assert itself in Kenyan politics and many of them abhor tribalism and all that it stands for. Many of them are well educated and able to influence folks in their rural areas. I can say that we are in for a shock this time round. But nobody will be more shocked than the political classes who have held on to power for too long by cheating the masses.
If I was Raila I would also be very frightened. Frightened at the extremely high expectations Kenyans have of an ODM government. To be very honest, so far I have not seen any conclusive evidence that they can deliver on their promises. However most Kenyan voters seem to be of the opinion that they deserve a chance.
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