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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Are All The Polls Putting Raila Ahead Rigged?

The latest Steadmann poll puts ODM presidential hopeful, Raila Odinga slightly ahead of President Kibaki. 44% of those polled said that they would vote for Raila while 40% said they preferred President Kibaki. Only 10% said that they would for Kalonzo Musyoka.

This is the only survey by Steadmann where it has been revealed how the survey was financed. This particular one was paid for by the Standard Newspapers group.

However the poll was conducted ONLY in Nairobi.

This is very surprising because most analysts (including those leaving comments in this blog have always been sure of a Kibaki victory in Nairobi.)

Of course there are also those wonderful Kumekucha readers who believe that any poll that puts Raila ahead of Kibaki has been rigged or is just plain propaganda. I will be very interested in what Jeff and PKW have to say about this latest Steadmann poll.

As reported here, some days back, all the figures coming in are telling a story that nobody wants to believe. They seem to suggest that if the election were to be held today, Raila Odinga would not only win, he would win by a landslide.

Other strategies to halt Raila’s popularity that even I thought would work very effectively seem to be falling flat. For instance the circumcision thing that Simeon Nyachae tried to pull off in his Kisii stronghold has backfired badly and we are seeing photographs on the front page of newspapers of Kisii people burning effigies of Mr Nyachae.

Deep in Central province, there is a lot of discontent against the Kibaki administration. In my view, were the elections to be held today, Raila would get no less than 15% of the votes in Central province and probably even more.

So what has happened? What has changed in Kenya?

Actually a lot seems to have happened. For starters the younger generation is starting to assert itself in Kenyan politics and many of them abhor tribalism and all that it stands for. Many of them are well educated and able to influence folks in their rural areas. I can say that we are in for a shock this time round. But nobody will be more shocked than the political classes who have held on to power for too long by cheating the masses.

If I was Raila I would also be very frightened. Frightened at the extremely high expectations Kenyans have of an ODM government. To be very honest, so far I have not seen any conclusive evidence that they can deliver on their promises. However most Kenyan voters seem to be of the opinion that they deserve a chance.

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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Polls are rarely if ever conclusive, but people cannot deny the feeling on the ground amongst the common Kenyan people. The people who just want an accountable leader irrespective of tribe. The fact that a senior politician can refer to circumcision as a factor for leadership, is indicative of the ignorance that has prevented the GNU or PNU from delivering to the people. Furthermore President Bush of the United States is not circumcised, which I'm sure Kioko and others probably cannot tolerate, yet he is the leader of the most powerful nation in the world, he may be seen as ignorant amongst many around the world, but he attended prestigious schools like Kibaki and when times got rough he didn't need to create a another party he had strategists like Karl Rove around him to ensure he won a second term. When those around him created bad press and hurt his agenda (despite being key allies) they resigned i.e. Rumsfeld, he didn't re-appont them when things cooled down. For those voting for Kibaki ask yourselves has he improved the livelihoods of your family members, will your children realistically have a chance to attend post secondary education, do you have more money in your wallets to put food on the table? Does that matter or is it more important that you have someone from your immediate community in power. Folks, Kenyans are becoming more educated. For humour's sake I'll ask mr. kioko if he has dug himself that grave yet?

Anonymous said...

These ratings could be fake.The reason is that if you want to counter the effect of this wind called ODM then the best thing to do is use Mois tactics which he used against Matiba.At that time Matiba was leading and that feeling was being felt all over even when he arrived from a trip (just like Railas's) he was welcomed by so many people singing and jumping around (kin of the same thing we saw the other day when Raila arrived).Little did he know that these people were paid by Moi to welcome him back and the press then KBC was hired to make him look good.So Matiba went ahead and thought he was the best he then relaxed in his campaigns Moi stepped up his. As much as people would like to say that Moi rigged the elections dont really think he rigged Matiba rigged himself out when he relaxed his campaigns.So Raila should be warned that just when things seem to be really good they could be heade to the rocks.

Anonymous said...

Simon Says, Lets prove raila is not popular by voting him out please
http://kenyapolls.blogspot.com/2007/09/kenya-07-online-presidential-polll.html

Anonymous said...

http://kenyapolls.blogspot.com/2007/09/
kenya-07-online-presidential-polll.html

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