The one place where Kenyans should keep a very careful eye on in the run up to the forthcoming polls is the Rift Valley province. There is no doubt that this will be a major political battle ground this time round.
The old Kanu guard led by aging former president Moi will be going all out to ensure that Kanu wins back all their parliamentary seats. Already violence has been unleashed in the province as a mere foretaste of worse things to come with flair ups in Molo and a very serious problem which has persisted in the Mount Elgon area.
It is quite clear that the likes of ODM will not be able to just walk in and take the parliamentary seats up for grabs without some resistance from Moi’s Kanu faction. One of the tricks that Moi will definitely use will be to frighten the ODM candidates in the province (many of whom are known looters and corrupt individuals) that a win for Odinga spells doom for their future safety from prosecution. Moi will also appeal to his community’s basic instincts to protect their own by telling them a vote for President Kibaki is the only way of keeping Moi and his family safe from prosecution and the ridicule of a prison term or a confession session in front of a truth and reconciliation commission.
Information that I am receiving from the ground tells me that these are issues that have split the community right down the middle with the younger generation having had enough of Moi while the older folks are prepared to do anything to protect the former president and his immediate family. The older generation view any move against Moi as an affront to the entire community. What Moi and kin really need to start getting worried about is the fact that the younger frustrated Kalenjins who are die hard supporters of ODM are the majority.
What Kenyans need to be very careful about is the fact that the older generation politicians like Moi are accustomed to playing dirty and care for little else than their desired end results. What this means is that possible assassinations of key players, if all else fails cannot be ruled out.
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