Recent surveys have clearly shown that most Kenyans do not believe that Moi's declared support for Kibaki is inconsequential as some of our dear readers and commentators believe.
Others here have said that Rift Valley has changed too much for Moi to have any major impact on what happens in the next few weeks and ultimately in the general elections.
Of course all this is ignoring one of Moi's most effective secret weapons which he has used for years with great success. And this is his uncanny ability to pass on a clear message directly to the electorate that does not pass through the press where we can all read and analyze and ridicule it.
So the question any serious analyst should be asking themselves is what Moi will tell Kalenjin voters. Let us first admit that selling anything Kikuyu in the Rift Valley is a very difficult thing to do, so Moi will need to be very aggressive determined and pull out all stops or checks he may have earlier placed in front of himself in the coming vicious winner takes all battle.
It is not what Moi says in public that will have an impact but what is said in secret away from press coverage.
There is no denying that Moi is still very respected amongst his Kalenjin community and one of the last things the community would like to see is Moi and his son Gideon behind bars. So it goes without saying that he will urge his community to vote for Kibaki so as to guarantee his freedom and that of his son. This is a very effective call that the Kalenjins will respond to much more quickly than any heady rhetroric and promises from the ODM brigade.
It is also quite likely that away from the glare of lights and TV cameras or the ears of any reporter, former President Moi will remind the Kalenjin community of the 1982 coup of which leading ODM presidential contender, Raila Odinga is a self-confessed participator and organizer. He will then urge the people to sober up and consider whether this is the sort of person they would like to be their next president.
But probably the most appealing of the cards that the president will be "playing under the table" is that of a promise of a clear route that will see a Kalenjin in State house once again in 2012. The Kanu party leader who will lead the assault of delivering the majority of Rift Valley votes to president Kibaki will be in line to be appointed Vice president in the next government of national unity (GNU). However since that person is Uhuru Kenyatta who hails from the Kikuyu tribe, we obviously cannot have a president and his vice president from the same tribe. So, the mantle will be passed on to the person next in line which would have been William Ruto. But since Mr Ruto has deserted the heart of Kanu for Raila Odinga's ODM, the next person in line to retain the delicate balance in the party which has a huge percentage of ultra-loyal Kalenjins, can only by the MP for Baringo Central. Yes, Gideon Moi himself. That should give him the chance to consolidate his power and greatly increase his chances (with lots of coaching from dad) of ascending to the presidency in 2012.
Such a secret game plan whispered to voters in the expansive Rift valley province will cause many of them to abandon the orange and vote in a manner that presents the best opportunity for one of their own to end up in State House after the 2012 polls.
If you want a glimpse of things to come, let me take you to the year 1997 when as President Moi was seeking what was going to be his last term, there was a lot of unrest amongst the kalenjin most of who felt short-changed and openly said that they had not gained as much as the Preisdent's own Turgen community. The generally better educated Nandis were the ones complaining the loudest. Analysing the political situation then, I said that Rify Valley would show a surprisingly good result for the opposition and especially Mwai Kibaki who had campaigned a lot in the region that year. However I alsmot collapsed when the election results started trickling in from the Rift Valley. The guys who had been bitterly complaining dutifully trooped to the poling stations and voted for President Moi almost to a man.
Expect the same this time. Lots of noise in support of ODM, lots of orange-eating all over the Rift Valley, but come voting day, the votes will go to Kanu and Kibaki.
Can this young aspirant turn out to be a giant killer In Cherangany?
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