To get the answer to that question we need to coldly analyze what she is capable of bringing to the table for either ODM Kenya or Narc Kenya.
Can she deliver at least most of the Kamba vote as a block?
The answer to that is question is "No". With Kalonzo Musyoka still actively trying to convince his community that he has a fighting chance of getting into State house, at best that vote will be sliced into two, and this will also heavily depend on which side Ngilu finally joins. The truth of the matter is that Ngilu joining Raila could cause her to even lose her parliamentary seat. It really is a terrible thing, but it is the truth. What has happened is that tribalism has reared its' ugly head again and naturally most Kambas are siding with your blue eyed boy in the current fracas within ODM.
Ngilu on her own is however extremely popular in Ukambani. One has to remember that she has been busy campaigning since 2003 when she realized that the Narc dream was dead. And we have the Ministry of Health payroll to prove just how active she has been in her campaigns.
This is why if Ngilu ends up in the Kibaki camp, she will probably be of a lot more value to the Kibaki campaign than she ever will for the Raila one. Again a nasty thing to say, but the truth and reality on the ground.
So the big question has to be; where will she end up?
ODM-Kenya hopes are very high that she will join the Raila/Balala/Ruto faction at their moment of great need. However what the ODM folks and most Kenyans fail to elaize is just how smart this lady from Ukambani is. Many this week have called her emotional, but Ngilu has often proved that she is a serious political strategist. Few remember that she was the glue that held the opposition together first in NAK and then later in the original National Rainbow Coalition that swept Mwai Kibaki into State House. Sometimes that is the power of a woman, while the men are thinking of the thighs they saw in the newspaper photograph, she has already read all their minds and is a step ahead.
I will be very surprised if Ngilu joins ODM-or what's left of it. Instead expect to hear her discussing a new alliance from the remnants of ODM-Kenya and those not comfortable with the ruling GNU (government of national unity). This woman's record speaks for itself, she does not join alliances, she initiates them.
But why the great enmity with Kalonzo Musyoka? So great is the venom she has towards Mr Musyoka that Ngilu would more easily cut deal with Moi-the devil she fought for so long than with Kalonzo. In fact their rivalry hinges on being personal. To be honest I have no idea, but I am sure there is a story, which sadly, we may never know.
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