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Monday, July 16, 2007

President Kibaki's Secret Election—Winning Strategy

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Today's posts are all dedicated to the closest friend I ever had, the late Ger Nyanjom, whose life was brutally cut short before he could achieve his dreams. The man who shot him at point blank range in a Nairobi office and stole nothing in 2005 has never been arrested to this day. Circumstances point to the fact that my friend "G" as he was fondly known to those who were close to him, lost his life because he was a Luo (sorry, I can't give details).

Thank you "G" for being there for me when I was down and out. I will not rest until all the Luo propaganda, that has caused so much anguish to this community and which was partly to blame for your death, is reversed and all Kenyans reach a place where they understand and appreciate the Luo community as precious Kenyans whose contribution to our beloved motherland has always been downplayed and undermined. I dream that one day soon, a popular Luo president will be elected in Kenya and the electorate will not even notice that he is a Luo…


I hope all you good folks know who Mutahi Ngunyi is. It is very important that you know because he is at the center of an election campaign winning strategy that has been carefully implemented even before the chaotic referendum of 2005 that is designed to see the ailing, sickly President Kibaki back in power for another 5 year term.

Mutahi Ngunyi is that guy in specs who used to make cutting edge analysis in the run up to the 2002 general elections, mostly on KTN TV. He has admitted himself that during those elections he also did some consultancy work for the Kibaki team (which he says in one column that was published in the Daily Nation, candidate Kibaki at that time did not appreciate and arrogantly wondered whether he (Ngunyi) knew what he was talking about.)

In the early years of the Kibaki administration Mutahi Ngunyi's column in the Sunday Nation had become a must-read, especially because of his biting, but well-researched criticism of the Kibaki administration. But suddenly one day, without any proper explanation, the column disappeared. It was later learnt that Mr Ngunyi's highly critical columns had served their intended purpose and the political scientist had joined the president's team of political advisors.

It seems that this information is yet to reach the Standard media group because they still carry the man's views as independent views on both KTN and the Standard newspaper.

I would like to draw your attention to a newspaper article heavily quoting Ngunyi that was published in the Sunday Standard, yesterday. In the article Ngunyi emphasizes that the coming elections will be a two-horse race affair between President Kibaki and Raila Odinga. He ignores the current activity within Kanu and Moi's clear hand in a move that will yield no doubt yield a third major presidential candidate and a political force carefully positioned to cash in on the massive expected fall out in both ODM and Narc-Kenya when the parliamentary candidates nomination exercises are completed. All this is information Ngunyi is definitely aware of.

Read The Standard article for yourself;

So why would Ngunyi be doing this? The answer is rather obvious. Such a scenario would play right into the hands of the President's advisors and would ensure a Kibaki victory.

The terrible truth, which hurts me deeply even as I write it (see my other post to discover why) is that a Raila candidacy as the ODM candidate would greatly favor President Kibaki. It does not matter how united ODM would be. And that is the reason why this otherwise excellent political analyst made his strange statement to the newspapers.

Insiders have revealed to this blogger (and I have published almost all the information I have obtained here. Almost all. Some of it is too hot even for this blog—maybe later) that there is one possible ODM candidate who causes the president's advisors to urinate in their trousers. That man's name is Musalia Mudavadi. A united ODM that remains intact with Mudavadi as the candidate would deliver a landslide victory to ODM. Sadly if such a thing were to occur, Kenyans would be placing a Goldenberg suspect (yet to be cleared, like Saitoti) as President of Kenya. The man is also not only a close confidante of retired President Moi, but the two are related.

So why would a Raila candidature favor President Kibaki? Regular readers of this blog will know the answer to that question. Years of Jomo Kenyatta propaganda after the assassination of Tom Mboya is deeply ingrained in the psyche of even younger Kenyans that it has been passed onto. Make no mistake about it, propaganda is very powerful indeed.

While many of the so-called Gema communities voted against the government and for the Orange during the referendum, majority of them will not vote for a Raila presidency. What will happen is that ODM will bag the majority of seats in parliament and lose the presidency.

Let me be a little more blunt (and you will forgive me because I am here to tell the truth as I see it. When I favor a candidate I will say so openly and I have said several times here that out of the current candidates, Raila Odinga is the most suitable. He is the one I would favor over Mwai Kibaki any day. But suitability and political reality are often two very different things. Even the political dreams that Kumekucha has are easier to achieve than a Raila Presidency. The horrible truth is that while many Kenyans seated in the comfort of their city offices will say that they can vote for Raila, when they go back to their villages to do the actual voting, the tribal demons that will arise in them will not allow them to vote for a Luo.

If you don’t believe me, just talk quietly to the following villagers; Kikuyu, Kamba, Kisii, Kuria, Masai, Meru, Giriama, Digo (I think you all know that the majority of votes are scattered out there in remote villages many of which you have not been to—luckily Kumekucha has traveled widely in Kenya) and ask them if they would vote for a Raila presidency? When they say "No" don't bother to ask them why because very few people will tell you the truth. And even fewer know the truth behind how this "feeling" was deliberately planted in the hearts and minds of so many Kenyan communities during the Kenyatta presidency and what the objective of doing this was.

Now you understand why it would be in Narc Kenya's best interests to create chaos within ODM and ensure that the ODM candidate is not anybody else but Raila Odinga, because he will be very easy to deal with come the day of reckoning when Kenyans have to vote in their next president.

Other articles in this blog from the past on Mutahi Ngunyi…

As Nation columnist, his predictions mostly came true

How the man looks like plus article announcing that he is in fact one of the main advisors

John Githongo Versus Mutahi Ngunyi: The Court battle

7 comments:

Taabu said...

Well spoken Chris but just a nasty reminder to you that you have unknowingly fallen into your own pit. Some days ago you thought of thinking outside the box and derided those enslaved to REALITY. But just re-read your analysis above and see the big chunk you have bitten of the very chalice. Yap reality rules and idealism never leaves the classroom door. And the consequences, nasty (mostly) and otherwise, are all out there for us to wade in. Need I say more? I guess not lest I spoil the political broth.

Back to Ngunyi. You know the Oxford graduate is smart but does the name Jonathan Moyo ring the same tune when you mention his name? Yap JM was Mugabe immediate ex info and propaganda minister who after serving the master so diligently thought he was one himself. Alas ask Derek when he wondered why his palms had no hair and his madness was eventually revealed.

The good professor thought he would succeed Bob and when the later dismissed hi and chose a nondescript lady as VP, Jonathan threw political tantrums. He was hounded out of office, refused Zanu-PF nomination and barely made it an independent MP. Now the used toilet paper is damped and flushed. But why am I saying all these?

Prof JM lived in Kenya as a critic of Mugabe before he was COOPERATED (smells Ngunyi transition from Sun Nation's Insight to alleged State House, ehe?). While in NRB Moyo and Ngunyi got Ford funding of $10m and stated the EA Alternatives, a regional tri-monthly news-academic magazine that introduced the word BANDIT ECONOMY in our lexicon. After two issues it folded and the rest as they wont to say is history.

A court case has been dragging between Ford Foundation and Ngunyi and Moyo as defendant. Ford wants her money back and Ngunyi had to re-invent himself.

Make no mistake; Mutahi is in a class of his own on matters of quality of grey material in between the ears. He can still remain objective even if supping from State Hse. Provided he doesn't lie through the teeth, his views remain very schooled and only a fool can dismiss him.

Yes, Ngunyi is a credible political scientist but is practicing hwat he is preaching? Typical Kenyan life, talk big and lofty ideas but live petty dishonest lies. On that same realm I can bet my last penny and breathe on the predictable tirades of the ilk 'what does Moyo or Ford or whatever has to do with his analysis'. Bring them on folks I am armoured.

vikii said...

Mr. Kumekucha u r one very interesting chap. U amaze me. I will give credit 2 u for acknowledging Mutahi Ngunyi's razor sharp mind even though he does not believe in the same political faith u subscribe to. I however have a few bones to chew with u because letting u off the hook after publishing distorted truths of such magnitude would amount to endorsing them.


First of all, as u rightly put it,Musalia is just a suspect just the same way Raila is a suspect of land grabbing/duping. Kenyans have a right to question Mudavadi's involvemnt in mega corruption but he should not be judged on a different scale from the one judging his peers, regardless of who they are. In my opinion corruption is not and will never be a comparative concept So the issue of some people being better than others does not arise. It is plain simple, any corrupt 'leader'(Or any leader suspected of corruption) should be fought like a plague.

I respect your cause of 'emancipating the luos from the york of stigma'. While doing so, please refrain from your acute tribalism. Yes it is very tribalistic of you to launch a wholesome condemnation of entire communities just because you are frustrated. When you talk of how kikuyus will not vote for Raila despite them 'obviously lacking any reason to do so', I expect you to also tell us why almost all luos will not vote for Kibaki or Kalonzo. U are evidently assuming that the luos are better thinking beings than all other communities, otherwise why on earth would u think they dont buy propaganda against other communities when the reverse is happening?

I am saying here for the 101st time that I can vote for Raila only with a gun held at me. That however has nothing to do with his luo roots. Most kenyans have no problem with anybody's luoness or kambaness. They have a problem with the men themselves. For me, Raila Odinga and Kumekucha are just some of the 'educated' Kenyans living in the fifties. To accuse pple of discriminating u on the basis of tribe without being able to quote one single person verbatim is the height of hypocrisy and defeatism. I was listening to Anyang Nyongo'o, the so called professor, on TV the other day and I laughed aloud. He was telling Martha Karua what traitors they (Read kikuyus) are. He reminded her of the Homeguards of the fifties, the Matiba/Kibaki candidacies and the MOU. Now that has to be the most simplistic argument by a professor ever. It is the same disease suffered by these crusaders of "Luo presidency" of crying foul everytime. I support Kalonzo , but if he looses the presidency that has nothing to do with anybody giving the kamba people a raw deal, no. People will give reasons like his "cowardice", his "aloofness" or whatever it is u have against him. The same thing applies to presidential candidates Kibaki and Koigi.

I read your other article about how a Mboya presidency (The one Oginga Odinga supposedly blocked)was supposed to be devoid of tribalism. My question is 'Who said that'?. I am seeing your systematic attempt to potray the luos as 'holier than thou'----Everybody else is surely a mistake dont u think so?. I wish u luck.

Phil said...

Chris,

You seem to be raising doubts as regards the possibilities of Raila Odinga winning the presidency as a single opposition candidate. And regrettably you are basing your analysis on comments attributed to Mutahi Ngunyi who is now working full time for the Kibaki regime. Ngunyi's porfolio is known to be a political think-tank based in state house and he is certianly the brain behind the so called government of national unity as well as the proposer of that political party known as NARC-Kenya. He might even be the proposer of the controversial Media Bill, everybody knows information is power. Ngunyi is entitled to his opinion, but I honestly do not see him having better knowledge of political under-currents than any of us in this blog. As a political commentator, he has made his fortune and continues to be paid from state resources just to ensure the regime does not cock-up as it is used to do.

While I am not underestimating the strength of the incumbent and the fact that he has state resources behind him, Chris you seem to be underestimating the knowledge and aspiration of the common Kenyan voter. There are those voters who have been impressed by Kibakinomics and are also bound to vote for Kibaki as a Kikuyu versus Luo candidate, but I can assure you that majority of Kenyans, unlike our politicians, are seeing beyond what I call slight economic recovery and tribal voting. Indeed, Raila is widely acknowledged as one of the few remaining Kenyans capable of bringing real change to this country. Fortunately, what matters is that voters are now well informed to know on whose side they want to be. It therefore means nothing as to what Mutahi Ngunyi opines. He only has one vote. Although general elections do not happen every year, it is now becoming apparent that Raila will certainly beat Kibaki and shame sceptics like Mutahi Ngunyi and Chris, the former who is being paid handsomely to try and make political fools out of Kenyans. Kibaki's election in 2002 was a disaster in itself because Moi did not manage his succession democratically not least as a statesman. Kibaki's government and family was oozing with confidence in the early part of his term; they took voters for granted and publicly insulted his opponents. Some journalists were even assaulted. It is only the referendum defeat that made them wake up to reality. And what an embarassment it was. And that reality is that another term for Kibaki will be trully a nightmare and I doubt if voters will allow it. The year 2012 might be only five years away, but I remind you Chris, present high school students will be adults and most likely jobless without a clue on how to start independent lives. No, we have had enough, thank you sir.

Taabu said...

That obsession clouds a clear vision is an old but apt adage. Brother Vikii you must not allow your dislike of somebody make you loose your cool. You have it in you to argue your case factually but always stop when you suspect taht you are spreading yourself too thin. It may expose your soft underbelly. At such junctures just read aloud what you have typed and when you find your pulse rate racing or voice raised then that is a red flag that soberness is taking leave my brother.

As always I hold brief for nobody except my self. That is my one penny take for you. You have the freedom to trash it and even shred it, you are welcome by brother. Over to you.

vikii said...

Taabu I dont understand why u think I lost my cool. I did not and if that's how i come out then I apologize.

The issue of who i like or dislike does not arise. I just said that it makes little sense to campaign for or against someone on the basis of tribe. I respect your political inclination Taabu or anybody else for that matter, but surely dont u think all those other candidates who can not win the presidency like Koigi, Ojiambo, Balala or even Ruto can cook up these theories where they say kenyans are rejecting them because of their tribes? No tribe is bigger than another and that is one fact I think people are reluctant to accept.

I guess my supposed dislike for Raila was noted when i said I can never vote for him. But dont I have a right, like everyone else to say my preferences? Chris has said in this very article that he would go for Raila over Kibaki anytime. He has since the creation of the earth mantained his preference of Raila to Kalonzo. Are u guys enforcing a 'code of conduct' that if anybody differs with that school of political thought then he should be branded an outcast? Again like I said I am not here to fight with anyone but in my opinion nobody wants a rubberstump blog or is that the way u want us to go guys?

I never meant to hurt anyone but I have a bad habit of speaking my mind---This luo thing is being taken too far. Period.

Taabu said...

Chris, Chris, what is happening here at Kumekucha? Are you latently proving to us that you have no way of sieving what is posted here? The first post have just been VANDALIZED with some cheap porn stuff. We know where to that kind of material and we surely don't need it here. Please do something immediately for my sanity (and probably many others).

Anonymous said...

I am not a Luo - but I know Luos helped a Kikuyu ascend to the presidency twice - first in 1963 and second in 2002

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