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Saturday, July 14, 2007

Kalonzo Musyoka’s Worst Nightmare

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From the latest Steadmann Polls, we now know why Kalonzo Musyoka wanted the ODM presidential candidate decided early. What his handlers feared would happen has come to pass, at least according to the latest poll where he has continued to slip further behind as Raila surges ahead.

We also know that amongst the “lies peddled by current prominent ODM luminaries was that Kalonzo would be the opposition’s presidential candidate. That would explain the sudden popularity of the Mwingi North MP and his high score even in Luo Nyanza for the presidency. But now that the rift within ODM has become common knowledge, it seems that the popularity of the candidate is melting fast before our very eyes.

I have always said that I do not consider the Steadmann polls accurate and I have not changed my position. The polls reflect mostly the feelings of Kenyans who have their heads above the water. The millions of voiceless fellow countrymen whom it is claimed live on a dollar a day (actually many of them don’t see that amount of cash in a year) are yet to have their say.

I could take the Steadmann pollsters to parts of Mathare, Kibera and Dagoretti where if they will refuse to believe that they are in Kenya.

But what is even more disturbing about the ODM nomination is that my reseach shows that there is a significant number of voters who will cross to Narc-Kenya if Kalonzo fails to be named the ODM-presidential candidate. Probably not enough to mean defeat for a Raila led ODM, but still significant enough to be anxious about. Sadly this also includes ordinary folk on the ground.

President Kibaki 45%
Raila Odinga 25%
Kalonzo Musyoka 11%
Musalia Mudavadi 3%
Uhuru Kenyatta 2%
William Ruto 2%
Undecided 7%
Will not vote 1%
No preferred candidate 1%


Poll conducted June 27th to July 4th 2007


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7 comments:

vikii said...

Here we go now. First of all I must say that, knowing steadman's sampling and computation, and believe u me I do, their polls are over 95% correct. That doesnt mean the results would be exactly the same and that is why we talk about a 3% margin of error meaning that there is a 0.03 probability of getting something different. I argued here in January that those polls were accurate but for absolutely obvious reasons, I got alot of stick from the same characters now only disagreeing with the distribution of the sample. They come up with something like 'most of those polled are kenyans with their heads above the water'. At that time the same characters were even arguing that steadman had not conducted any polls "beacuse neither them nor any of their cousins or anybody they knew had been polled". That is a very backward way of reasoning if u ask me because a sample of 2000 people out of a population of 12 million means that u have a 0.000166667 (0.02%)chance of being polled. My point is that I believe in the Steadman findings and people should not change when the situation appears to favour their now common 'horses'. That is called dishonesty.

I said here about two weeks ago that Raila has effectively replaced Kalonzo as the big boy of the ODM. Raila is a gifted POLITICIAN, an indefatigable campaigner and Kalonzo's gentlemanly modus operandi means his support had to crush in the face of sustained machiavelli-influenced kind of operation that would occassionally include shedding of tears. I agree that is precisely why we wanted an early nomination.

About 'some Kalonzo supporters trooping to NArc Kenya', well I doubt that. I am not ruling out them backing Kibaki if Kalonzo is not the odm candidate. Some people may find my insistence since last December that Kalonzo is the ODM candidate come rain or shine weird. This is an extremely stubborn politician (especially when mistreated) and Raila should start shopping for a party because there is no way either in this world or the next he is going to be the ODM-K candidate. I am seeing a Raila, Balala, Nyaga and Mudavadi exit. Each of them may of course go his own way but they have to ship out. Kalonzo may choose to use the ODM as a negotiation tool with Kibaki to form either a pre or a post election coalition. In the event that he chooses not to run then he would better follow his supporters to Kibaki because that is the direction they would undoubtedly head. He should not attempt to swim against the wishes of his people. About the number that will suport Kibaki not being big enough to hand raila a big loss, well i tried every mathematical functions and formulae known to me to try to ascertain the authenticity of such an allegation and I hereby submit that that conclusion must have been conceived in pluto.

Taabu said...

You can take Steadman poll to the bank but the problem is which bank, Trade bank or Equity. Both of these banks have the same history and before you shout growth they will be under.

Fighting opinion polls is akin to fighting science. And you only ignore political dynamics reflected in the quarterly polls by failing to appreciate statistics, which unfortunately if the human face the present computer age. Change your mind if you must but don't lie with statistics because such lies are not sustainable. Tinkering with your null hypothesis (no change) is to unwittingly change your objective, just ask Vikii.

That said, Kalonzo may be down whether is out I am not sure and the jury is till out. The religious kipindi on KBC of yore 'chochote chaweza kutokea' couldn't be an apt summary. In my book I still refuse to edit the first edition that ODM remains united or gets poltically hanged separately. Any other move is pretence, not that they are any better but considering them playing in their own league that is.

derek said...

So far, so good, Raila Odinga fits the billing as the most popular shout for the presidency run come December. It is clean as a whistle!

True, he can take on Mwai Kibaki at the moment, but there will but no much change. The reality is that nothing more will change. Voter election studies in the 20th century indicate that most voters make their minds in six months to election time and very little change ever takes place during the campaign period.

In the ODM pack, Raila is currently in a class of his own. No doubt. Kalonzo Musyoka remains, by any hypothetical description that may arise, as the sure loser of any direct poll within the ODM pitting him against Raila. Simply said, the battle is between Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga.

But there is another battle that looms with the registration of the party/movement. This is typical of the 1992 scenario when Martin Shikuku, a Ken Matiba ally ran away with the certificate to split the original FORD into many sub-Fords. If Maanzo and the elusive party holders maintain their shenanigans, then Raila Odinga is doomed.

Maanzo is not even a politician and the other signatory is not very different from Kamlesh Pattni’s driver who was registered as a director of one of the Goldenberg bank. In the ODM case, the man is a matatu tout. That is the calibre of leaders that we want to shape the destiny of Kenya. Sure, think about the tout, not Gummo this time, signing the election certificate of the next president of Kenya.

But one reason that stops both politicians is the credible chance of the party to agree, on one thing, the mode of electing the man to hold the torch for the party during the elections. As the opinion polls suggest Raila has improved in his ratings and there no shade of doubt about it. On the same, Kalonzo has lost ground and it goes without saying.

Not to belittle Kalonzo and praise Raila, it might have been a sign of cowardice by both parties at the Mombasa ODM rally and those who feel that it is a bitter pill to swallow, have no reason but accept that it was a wrong start, and the simply widened the rift between the party hopefuls. This should have been a chance to show the thousands of doubters that they were a united outfit.

I repeat again to day, whoever brought/bought/accepted the Hummer gift and whoever changed the party slogan! Now, it is more obvious than before that the popularity contest can be won by Raila, if the party is to resort to the expensive election process and further on, a futile one, but is he ELECTABLE. Considering that thousands of disillusioned party members, including politicians are making their minds known, it will be interesting to see how things will unravel in the coming weeks.

Najib Balala has made his feelings about the Council of Elders known, the Kamba leaders have pealed off (for the time being) and the Raila mob are now shouting their voices hoarse, as if they have emasculated their principle enemy Kalonzo with the Mombasa show, one thing that lingers in the mind, is if ODM will remain the same as the civil war takes another turn. The ODM atom waits to explode.

Obviously, Uhuru Kenyatta does not belong to the cast, and this is further made obvious with the backstabbing and fighting in Kanu. I don’t know much about what will happen with the 2-week ultimatum and whether the remarks by the ODM luminaries will carry any weight, and what will happen to the rest of the electorate, but I will obviously keep an eye on a few things – and they shall remain, one, that Kikuyus are our adui (cannot be denied at any time) and the Luo are unelectable (cannot be denied either). All words bear the quotes of one Raila Odinga. I don’t know what will happen when the famed DP propaganda machine (Young Democrats) engages its throttle gear.

Tony Gachoka, John Githongo (if he will ever stand on a political podium), are so far the only one from the hegemonic Kikuyu tribe identified with ODM and any observer will see that writing on the wall. Joseph Kamotho jumped ship, Charles Njonjo went mute, Paul Muite coiled his tail, and Uhuru Kenyatta is faced with a Catch 22 situation (tribe/party/nation – does not know where he belongs). Anyway, if the Githongo story is true, it carries some weight, but as Chris wrote one time ‘this time is ours’ (repeated by Koigi wa Wamwere today), then he should try and find a better constituency to launch his politics given that his target electorate rejected Kamotho (twice), Arthur Magugu, Peter Kuguru and even Uhuru, and many more for associating with ‘others’.

For Kalonzo and all his supporters should note this, that the only way he will stand against Kibaki is ‘Tosha’ by the consensus and if the compromise candidature model can be bought and work and thereafter appease the people making such decisions. For the time being, he should think about 2012, which he has in his path, a rejuvenated Uhuru Kenyatta and may be a repackaged Musalia Mudavadi. Forget Najib Balala and his delusion.

Taabu said...

Hey Derek, I thought you were typing a comment but after few lines it turned SO FAMILIAR without you acknowledging the source or telling us that its a cut-and-paste. Or is it only me? I hope I am wrong but I fear it is true that your reproduced a Sunday papers without the honour of acknowledgment. Please do bro, it is never too late, ama?

derek said...

Taabu sorry, I have also noticed it. I was updating something on MICRSOFTWORD and made it by mistake. Sorry. I wish Chris could chuck it. I have sent him an email on the same. Again sorry. IT was CUT, PASTE and Pasted the wornd stuff from the WORD document I was doing the draft on. POLE NDUGU. I hope all understand before Chris gets it out!

derek said...

Folks, this is the post I wanted to post. I am sorry about the mix-up. Not intended and not recycling. Taabu, thanx for the kind observation. It could have been harsh from another angle - Derek

Raila Odinga, not Kalonzo Musyoka can take on Mwai Kibaki at the moment, but there will but no much change. Unless something drastic happens, then the election and its results will be as they are in the opinion polls.

The reality is that nothing more will change. Voter election studies in the 20th century indicate that most voters make their minds within six months to election time and very little change ever takes place during the campaign period.

Whatever cosmetic dressings that the ODM protagonists will want to put in the face of the public, one real thing is that unless a miracle happens, there is a split looming. So real, that other people fear mentioning it rightly. Like the Sword of Damocles it hangs over the ODM and the mere announcement of the presidential candidate will herald another chapter in the party’s year long

Why did Janet Ongera register the movement? What was her main aim in doing that? And who actually consented her to do that? Why also, did she have to use her own employees?

Then the real battele! There is a battle that looms with the registration of the party/movement. This is typical of the 1992 scenario when Martin Shikuku, a Ken Matiba ally ran away with the certificate to split the original FORD into many sub-Fords. If Maanzo and the elusive party holders maintain their shenanigans, then Raila Odinga is doomed.

Maanzo is not even a politician and the other signatory is not very different from Kamlesh Pattni’s driver who was registered as a director of one of the Goldenberg bank. In the ODM case, the man is a matatu tout. That is the caliber of leaders that we want to shape the destiny of Kenya. Sure, think about the tout, not Gumo this time, signing the election certificate of the next president of Kenya.

But one reason that stops both politicians is the credible chance of the party to agree, on one thing, the mode of electing the man to hold the torch for the party during the elections. As the opinion polls suggest Raila has improved in his ratings and there no shade of doubt about it. On the same, Kalonzo has lost ground and it goes without saying.

vikii said...

People, Maanzo or anybody for that matter doesnt have to be a politician to heqad a party. Even if that were a requirement, Maanzo is a parliamentary candidate for Makueni constituency. That alone makes him a politician. Touts signing certificates is no big deal because we expect the same touts or even people in lower echelons of society to employ the said president.

In my opinion the ODM has more important and urgent matters to attend to. Those matters are drafting a constitution that is acceptable to all members and electing delegates who in turn should elect those to replace the Maanzo group if the latter is unqualified to head the party. After the election of signatories then the presidential candidates can go and seek the mandate of representing the party in the election proper. Someone somewhere is getting the hierrachy of priorities wrong.

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