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Monday, October 01, 2007

Why Are The Diplomatic Corps So Worried About Election Violence?

Diplomacy is the art of lying creatively while maintaining a straight face.

Today all the major western power’s representative talked to the press about the looming mother of all general elections emphasizing that they were not backing any “horse”. Actually the diplomats addressed a number of issues, but the purpose of this post is to try and see through their diplomatic pronouncements to their real concerns and objectives on the ground.

Firstly all western powers share one deep concern—to ensure that Kenya remains peaceful. If anything were to happen to disturb the peace in Kenya a lot of their operations would be badly disrupted. For example did you know that Nairobi has an enviable reputation with donor organizations as one city in black Africa where you will find anything you need. This is in sharp contrast to many other African capitals where certain vital supplies have to be imported and this makes operations very difficult when moving relief food and other supplies to war torn or disaster areas on the continent.

But let’s get back to today’s press conference.

I predicted here over a year ago that this year’s general elections would be the most violent in history. My conclusions were based on what is at stake this time round when compared to past elections.

Fascinatingly the diplomats dwelt on that point at great length this morning. They said that the elections were going to be very closely fought because the opinion polls have so far been swinging from one candidate to another. They also said that a lot was at stake and therefore electoral violence was a major concern to them. They emphasized that although they were neutral, they would not remain silent if election malpractices occurred (and election violence is clearly one way of denying Kenyans a free and fair election).

I expect that the Kibaki side which is said to be trailing Raila will face a lot of animosity as they hit the campaign trail and indeed many of them have already started to sense that all is not well. So the million shilling question is how they will react to this? If the action of Mr Moneybags Livondo yesterday is anything to go by, then we expect that the president’s foot soldiers will favor violence as the most effective counter-strategy, even as they find ways and means to blame it all on ODM supporters.

Moi has secretly told those close to him that the reason he is campaigning against Raila is to avert bloodshed because those close to the Kibaki administration have assured him that they will NOT hand over power to Raila Odinga. Let anybody else win the elections BUT NOT Raila Odinga, Moi says that they have told him.

It seems that the diplomatic corps’ own intelligence services have informed them to be on the look our for some serious violence in these elections. Naturally they have also given them a pretty good idea of who is bound to win and what it means for western interests like the war on terrorism which is very high on the crowded American agenda in this part of the world.

The way the diplomats emphasized on this election violence thing today has gotten me very suspicious and more nervous that before. They seem to have some information which the rest of us clearly do not have. Although there is really nothing surprising here because we all know how former president Moi and many other powerful persons in the Kibaki re-election team play this game.

And as we have said here many times before which the diplomats repeated this morning;

The stakes are dangerously high this time round.

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Anonymous said...

Stop your unintelligable broo-ha-ha!!tell us when Moi started caring about Kenya.please tell us!!!when he left our economy in negative.-1.2!!!!!!!!!!!!did he care about our plight,inflation,lack of basics like food,shelter????caused by his flagrant abuse of the economy?and his halfbaked tribesmen running the country's major instistutions?
So telling us that he's trying to avert violence,because he's been told........bla bla fishcake, is PURE CRAP!!!!!
I'm constantly amazed at the energy the guys supporting agwambo have.they concort all types of theories,lies,propaganda.
Its like sufurias of ugali will multiply in their can you,you Chris,even have the temerity to tell us,your readers,that Moi is trying to avert war,and not taking care of his personal interests like he always has,like we have always known????SHAME ON YOU!!!!!
Dont join that class!!plzzzzzz!!of overzealous idiots!!
i bet you've seen the smss.
'if youre a member of GEMA,come to Equity.we're giving you money to buy safaricom shares.condition is,you must belong to GEMA,Gikuyu,Meru or Embu.' then 'pls forward this to all non GEMA'
and the other one 'these uncircumsized dirty smelly men should never be allowed to rule.together with the uncivilised hunters and gatherers cattle rustlers from the caves.the presidency is for the House of Mumbi.'
and you honestly think theres a kikuyu who has time to do this?for what????stop making money just to send 1000 smsss????for what??is Kibaki our father??aingie asiingie Life goes on!!!
Anyway Chris,stop that crap.youre above it.especially that bit of moi caring about us Kenyans,......!you know do!!!

Anonymous said...

well chris you've done it!! Kudos and you know what you've gaduated summa cum laude. As a shrink of course. let them traumatised kenyans let it out..sorry it had to be on you. if u can't handle it call me up will hook u up with Dr phil Mcgraws cell no.

Anonymous said...

Well, the same chaos were predicted in the runup to the 2002 elections. So let's hope like last time, all these predictions of doom and gloom will prove to be false!


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