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Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Elections 2007: The Kind Of Elections You Should Expect

As promised yesterday, I have agonized all night putting myself in the shoes of the incumbent and imagining that I was him seeing State House literally slip through my incumbent fingers before my very eyes as I watch.

By the way this is a very important exercise as it will give us all some very useful insights on what we should expect over the next few weeks leading up to the general elections.

The only thing that would have an outside chance of working would be to clandestinely look for a candidate to sponsor to erode the popularity of Raila and to take away as much votes as possible from the opposition side. This candidate would have to be chosen carefully because it is vital that they do not take any votes from the incumbent. This should not sound so far-fetched because there is nothing that a sizeable media and advertising budget cannot do to get just the right candidate very popular overnight. It would be preferable for that candidate to be young, the kind that would excite the millions of younger voters now firmly in the ODM ship. But of course chances of such a candidate winning would be nil, but remember that the objective would be to put a credible spoiler. This candidate should be seen to be an enemy of the Kibaki camp and will even take a few well aimed barbs in his direction. However their campaign strategy will be to tell Kenyans that both Raila and Kibaki are the same and only the young generation can save Kenya. Such a message has the potential now of catching fire like an uncontrollable bush fire in a dry savannah landscape.

Another useful thing to do would be pull out all the files from the intelligence service on characters like Kalonzo Musyoka and Mutula Kilonzo and to even start the process of preparing prosecutions. Believe me there is plenty of dirt on the files on these two characters. The whole objective would be to get Kalonzo Musyoka and the entire Hoo Ndii Emm to back President Kibaki’s re-election bid.

The next part of the strategy would be to unleash plenty of violence and terror to cause chaos and confusion (especially in opposition strongholds) while keeping real issues out of the campaign process. This would then all be blamed on ODM and that man with a violent history called Raila Odinga. This is not very difficult to do as “moneybags Livondo” proved to all of us last weekend.

Fellow Kenyans, in short I have come to the horrifying conclusion that there is no way the Kibaki handlers and camp will push for a peaceful elections because doing so is not in their best interests. That is a terrible thing to say but it is the truth. Of course as all this will be happening, the Kibaki camp will do its’ best to project an image of respectability and a team very keen on peaceful elections. But let us remember that we are dealing with politicians here. So don’t focus on what they say, instead focus on what they do and read between the lines rather than the actual sugar-coated sentences.

As you read this there are tens of thousands of Kenyan who are refugees in their own country in the Mount Elgon area. The government has been “unable” to quell the violence in that area. Also note that whatever has happened, Simon Nyachae has still NOT been charged for his actions at Kisii (captured on national television).

To complete the whole “horror movie” that is elections 2007, former president Moi is a major decision maker on President Kibaki’s campaign team. Here is the man who invented ethnic cleansing for election purposes in Kenya. And he must be more that a little upset at the way he has been received in many areas of Kalenjin Rift Valley in recent times. He will want to teach the wananchi a lesson or two—please don’t ask me how he will do this. But here is a hint shortly after multi-partyism was reintroduced in the country. He told delighted and cheering Kenyans; “Hii multiparty itachoma nyinyi.” (this multiparty will burn you). How prophetic his words proved to be… and to this day.

Those of you who know how to pray for divine intervention, now is a very good time to get into some very serious prayers for the beloved motherland.

4 comments:

jjcom said...

Chris,
This was a nice analysis. Unfortunately, you are not in the compaign strategy team just like me. Given the chance, i would have advised him to quit now with honour and allow Raila to ascend to power.
I would have advised Moi to do the same in 1988 when he was still cherised, before he became the destroyer, grabber and name it.

As for the devine intervention, i blv God will appoint a leader for us, a leader who will make a difference.
For Kibaki, no kind of persuation can make Kenyan's forgive him. We wanted to know what he had done on the pre-election pledges he made in 2002. Infact, dared us keep the card which had five promises so that we judge him after 5 years. God I thank you for keeping me alive to mark the form.
instead of defending himself or even asking one of the loud mouthed to explain this issue, they decided to hurl insults at a felow kenyan, a Kenyan who has the same rights to dignity and honour. Shame on them! Hypocrites!
Just look at Makwere, Nyachae, etc you will indeed require a miracle to win.
As we say, the development record of Kibaki speaks for itself. He has not done enough, he has tried but not achieved a pass. Just ask him to take the road from Nairobi to western, North rift, Kuria etc and he will indeed know what we have for his development record. If i were Kibaki,i would stop using that platform of development because there is none except by Dr Mutua. Does he even know the number of pupils in primary schools against the teachers, the desks, buildings!!!! Shame. Now you know.

Tony said...

Kibaki just needs to get Majority Votes[51%] in addition to 25% in 5 provinces to win outright!!

In these circumstances, Kibaki starts off with an unassailable lead from his backyard.

Consider Kenya Electoral History in 1992 and 1997, when Kibaki, as the record shows, got most of his votes from the Mount Kenya region as follows:

1992:

Moi - 1.9 million votes [35.5%]
Matiba - 1.4 million votes [26.16%]
Kibaki - 1.1 million votes [20.56%]
Odinga - 900000 votes [16.82%]
fringe candidates - approx. 50000 votes.

Total votes cast - approx. 5.35 million.

1997:

Moi - 2.4 million votes [39.6%]
Kibaki - 1.9 million votes [31.35%]
Raila - 700000 votes [11.55%]
Wamalwa - 550000 votes [9.07%]
Ngilu - 460000 votes [7.59%]
Fringe Candidates - 50000 votes.

Total vote cast - approx. 6.06 million.


Given the above factual history, it is reasonable to assume that Kibaki will probably have 35 to 40% of the National Vote in the bag BEFORE you can start counting votes from other regions. Inspite of Raila being in the lead according to the opinion polls, Kibaki will require just another 11 - 16% of the National vote to get the majority he needs to be declared the winner. Who is going to bet that he can't get that 16% plus 25% in 5 provinces?

Even if Raila gets 100% in Western and Nyanza, Kibaki will still get his 25% in Nairobi, Central, Rift Valley, Eastern and Coast.

If, according to the ECK there are 10 million actual voters, and gauging from the Mt Kenya regions votes in past elections as above, Kibaki can count on getting at least 3.5 to 4 million votes off the starting blocks. He will therefore need to get just over 1 to 1.5 million votes to win. Who can dispute that he won't?

This time too, the opposition has no capacity to cause tribal clashes and deny Kikuyus in the diaspora the right to vote whether in Western, Rift Valley or Coast provinces as they did in the past.
Another thing, even if Raila gets 70 - 80% of the votes in all provinces except the crucial Central, Nairobi, Eastern and Rift Valley, then he cannot possibly have the numbers to win. That is an indisputable fact, opinion poll or no opinion poll or even the number of people who will show up at Uhuru park on Saturday. They can even be a million but it will make no difference. FACTS AND FIGURES NEVER LIE.

jjcom said...

Tony's comment well noted. The problem you seem to say that the Kikuyus dont need others to rule. kenya is bigger than any one tribe. This is not the miracle Kibaki needs.

if you can remember the opinion polls during the referendum, the Kikuyus dismissed it and went ahead to ignore the rest of kenyans. They mis-advised the president to go to othaya and sleep as the race had been won, a race to keep one tribe in power for ever! ask the eck and you can get the figures.

The registered voters in Kenya is 14.5m out of which 500000 are dead and 338000 double registration. that leaves us with about 13600000. the estimated voter turn out 9.5m or 70% as most Kenyans are now informed.
Yet there is no dispute as to Kibaki's strength in central and eastern where again unfortunately, Kalonzo is spoiling for him the Kamba vote.
he will also get a reasonable vote in rift valley almost thirty%.
Now, wake up and do your calculations correctly.

Anonymous said...

Hye,
Tony could be right but by the standards of his own kinsmen who do simple arithmetic. He is a tribalist par excellence and if Kenya is made up of just one tribe (read Gema) then why didn't banana win the referendum? Dont be cheated my brother, with such kind of grand standing on numerical strength its gonna be a repeat of the referendum vote that is the rest of Kenya against Gema.
Trust me on this, until the Gema tribes will learn how to co-exist with the other 30+ tribes in kenya power will elude them for a very long tyme starting with this elections.

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