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Sunday, October 21, 2007

Why Kenya Is In Big Trouble

I just want to make two quick points today.

Firstly, the events of Kenyatta day have sadly proved what I said here just a few days ago. And that is the fact that the President and his men have taken this battle against Raila Odinga and ODM very personally. That should be very bad news for ALL Kenyans across the political divide.

Who wants to be involved in a personal battle? I certainly don’t and no person in their right mind would want to. What this means is that there are no rules. This is personal. The whole idea is to make sure the other man loses come what may.

Again armed with this information, the reports we have been receiving concerning the Langata voter’s register start to make a lot of sense. Basically my dear fellow Kenyans, there is very big trouble ahead of us. May the good Lord have mercy.

Secondly, there is something else that has now clearly come out about the current political situation in Kenya. President Kibaki is fighting the political battle of his career and the only problem is that he has nothing from his past to prepare him for what is already happening and will continue to unfold in the next few weeks.

Let me explain.

President Moi had a nightmare of a time as the country’s VP and he survived it for 12 long horrible years. This man was right there at the centre when the murderous blood-thirsty Kiambu Mafia of President Kenyatta ruled and did what they felt like. I am sure that it was not fun for Moi and he must have cried in bed at night many times because he was between a rock and a hard place. He couldn’t resign and go away because he knew too much and would have almost certainly been murdered and yet staying on was a horrible never-ending nightmare.

Moi found that he had to be very careful and think ahead before doing any tiny little thing. It was very good political training for what lay ahead of him as President and is what enabled him to rule Kenya for 24 years always out-thinking and outmaneuvering the enemy and basically surviving unscathed every time.

Tom Mboya had to organize a Union under very difficult conditions in the mid 50s, but somehow managed to raise the membership considerably and re-organize things despite a hostile colonial government. That experience catapulted him to national union politics and prepared him for his later political career where he will forever be remembered as an organizer without equal who would fix problems long before anybody even realized that there was any problem.

So what has prepared President Kibaki for what may well be his Waterloo?

It is widely known that at the first sign of danger when he represented a Nairobi constituency in the 60s Kibaki fled to Othaya where he has been since. His seat there has never really been threatened and he has never done any wrong in the eyes of his constituents who see him as the village boy who made good and should never be troubled.

In fact it is now emerging that had Kibaki been an astute politician and campaigner, he would have won the presidency much earlier than he did. Instead he had to go through the embarrassing loss of face to his junior Kenneth Matiba in 2002. Interestingly President Moi’s handlers had judged him the main threat to Moi’s presidency and went to work with crude character-assassination tactics like full page ads in the daily press carrying past quotes like the (Mugumo tree and razor blade one) and the infamous Kanu briefs propaganda campaign. Alas it was soon realized that he was never going to be a threat politically.

The president had his best opportunity to win in 1997, but again despite massive support from central province, he was unable to put together a winning campaign. Many other politicians given half of a similar chance would have easily won the presidency. In 2002, his campaign was handled by others and he won. This time round those “others: are all in the challenger’s side fighting him.

In sharp contrast Raila Odinga is a seasoned campaigner with a track record. Years of fighting president Moi have hardened the man into a considerable political entity on his own. In other words there is plenty from Raila’s past to prepare him for this battle.

That’s life. Even I was prepared well for my work here in Kumekucha.

I got into trouble with the special branch political police in the 80s when I was a youngster fresh from high school all due to a mistaken identity mix up details of which I have never found out to date.

My dad could not stop talking about Tom Mboya and his political brilliance, so I was forced to read his biography and the history of Kenya in great detail not knowing of what use it would be to me. Finally I had the opportunity of “fighting invisible enemies in the shadows” after I launched a very successful alternative press publication. All this and many other experiences have prepared me very well for Kumekucha which I believe with all my heart is my destiny. I was born to help fight for a better Kenya through this humble blog.

So even as you consider my political analysis of today, what about you? What have your past experiences and tribulations prepared you for?


Anonymous said...

Did you notice how detached the content of your post was from the title? you start with this alarmist heading and then offer nothing to back it up.

macs34 said...

I call it a shame.

If you wanted us to talk about how life has treated us and in the process harden us, you would have come up with something like.. "Life on the Edge- tel your tale" or "True living - what is your take?"

This one has just come short of my expectation.

The only thing i cannot imagine is that if RAO wins will Kibaki be able to handover like MO1 did? This can only smell like trouble, dances like trouble, and surely it looks like trouble... if Chris you meant this, sincerely Kenya we're in BIG TROUBLE than what you wrote.

Anonymous said...

Lets cut the crap here!!! Politics more so Kenyan politics is not about Ideology its about personality, our 'holier than thou opposition' has been mad-slinging kibaki from the year 2003, with words like
"Kibaki P.O. Box Othaya"
"Kibaki Bure, toka etc"

they started a bare-knuckle brawl and Kibaki would be a fool not to fight fire with fire!

Please respect our inteligence and drop the pretence and blatant hypocracy.

Mr. Lionheart (PNU INTELIGENCE AGENCY) aka Wakerekete!


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