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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Surely Raila Odinga Can’t Be That Popular

Since the first day I launched this blog I have never feared to speak my mind or the truth as I saw it. One well know political personality made a comment recently in my hearing; “the amazing thing about that Kumekucha guy is that most of his predictions seem to come true.”

Kumekucha does NOT support Raila, but I am obligated to report the truth and to investigate the mood on the ground and get back to my readers without fear or favor. So even when I’m trying my best to do that many desperate Kenyans bluntly scream; “Kumekucha is an ODM blog.”

I’ll tell you one thing—it will take much more than that to stop me.

The situation on the ground is that Raila Odinga and ODM are leading in ALL provinces except Central where one poll has given Raila 15%. This is according to no less than 5 different independent polls—3 of them were commissioned by the Sunday Nation and published last weekend, one was commissioned by the Standard and the other was the usual Steadmann poll.

I never like to brag but do you remember the results of my own survey in this blog where I said that Raila will receive 15 per cent of the vote from central province? Do you remember how most readers reacted? Even the Raila’s own supporters doubted my figures. Of course Kibaki supporters mocked that post. Well, I have news for you. I was wrong and the other pollster who seems to confirm what I said here weeks ago is also wrong. The very latest word on the ground from the heart of Central province is that the man from Luo Nyanza will get a much higher percentage than that.

So what has happened countrywide? What is really going on? Why this sudden Raila euphoria?

Actually it really isn’t sudden. The support the ODM crowd has enjoyed in the grassroots has been extremely high, right from the days of the referendum on the new constitution. But then how could Kenyans see it? Especially those of us who read newspapers every day. And even more so, those of us seated in air-conditioned luxury apartments surfing the web and leaving sworn and abusive comments in this blog about what you know about Kenyan politics and how sure you are that you are correct in your analysis.

Ladies and gentlemen, that is in fact the crux of the sharp differences that I have had with many of my dear “knowledgeable” readers here. The truth is that they can hardly understand the majority voter (the common man on the ground). The difference between me and many mainstream media journalists is that when I want to find out the mood on the ground I go right down to the grass roots and my rule is to never trust what politicians say. I only listen to them when they seem to confirm what I have already heard on the ground. There you are—the secret of Kumekucha’s success is now out. Yep. The secret formula that has lifted this blog from oblivion to the most read political blog in the history of Kenyan politics.

Let me put it in another way so that it is clearer. The difference between me and you and the majority of the guys who are going to vote in less than 78 days from today is this. You and me are very fortunate and we do not miss meals. Some of my readers here are so wealthy that it will make you dizzy. Now, the guys who are going to vote skip most meals (NOT voluntarily to cut their weight). They are also very frustrated and they tend to get upset when you tell them as a government that you have done a good job and grown the economy and that they should give you another 5 years and a chance to finish the job you started. The way they see it is that judging by what has happened to them in the last 5 years, by the time you “finish” your intended job, they will also be “finished” and dead from starvation.

Raila Odinga and the ODM crowd are not poor. Some of them are very wealthy. But they have taken the trouble to find out what is really going on down there. The result is that whenever they open their mouths, as hypocritical as some of them are, they strike a chord with the common man. So what do you expect?

The truth is that if elections were to be held today ODM would have a landslide victory. That is the truth and I don’t create the news and neither did I create that situation. Mine is only to observe and report it without fear or favor.

2 comments:

Njoroge said...

You are spot on, the man is exciting the political landscape in Kenya. Everyone has noticed the energy in the man and how serious he is taking the business of leadership in Kenya in this elections. Personally i admire his passion for the job. This could be good for Kenya. One other thing, all the guys (no women) seeking to occupy the house on the hill mean well for themselves first and for Kenya. If you asked all of them they would like to lord it oer a successful Kenya. Where i come from we are also realising we could do better as a community with a non kikuyu presidency provided the seat holder sustains the economy and creates opportunities for all. As a business man, any small job you get someone thinks its through the intervention of him. While in essence you hae worked for it. Am pretty sure, and holding all other factors constant especially where Raila were to reassure central province of fairness the 15% is set to increase further. I hae met some fellows from the community who are almost getting converted that a Raila president could be good for Kenya. More bashing of the community would allienate him from the community even further. All the same Kenyans should wake to the reality that an incumbent president can also do little for his community. A reality most Kenyans would not buy. Apart from maziwa prices and appoitment of friends in the name of teh tribe, the man has done to central what he has done elsewhere. He may eem have done little in central for the fear of being taken as a tribal king. What has he done on Thika road. My bet is that he was not willing to ye for a second term, but was forced to do it for the sake of his friends. Otherwise how do you explain a man who starts a party two weeks ago, with all the intelligence, money and power of incumbency. He would hae created a powerful political machine ages ago ahen he realised all was not well or immediately after independence. The man has been a good economic manager but has underperformed in political management. I want to leave you all with this story ( assuming it qualifies to be a story), i was in one division in coast province, and while the communities were happy with water, free education, cashew nut factory, roads, classes through CDF etc - their main worry was? If all has been done to them, triple that must have been undertaken in central province. The truth is otherwise. Mo womder the elections hall be not about issues but about that " other community" this is what 2007 elections shall be all about. Sorry for the long monomlogue but "hivyo mdiyo ilivyo"

Charles Njoroge - Mzee wa kijiji

Anonymous said...

There is this notion that some people peddle around that a Raila Government will be no good for the Kenyan economy. Kikuyu community are known for their spark attraction to money generation and they thus form the bigger part of indigenous successful Kenyan community. It is therefore not surprising that PNU operatives are talking of a rundown economy if Raila takes leadership. I have read a few things about Railas vision on economy and there is nothing that indicates he is the kind of person to "go happy spending" and amass wealth outside of this country.
After all he is one of the few politicians with long running family business that has survived very hard and trying political and economic times. In a nut shell, he has good financial judgment.
The long vision he wrote on http://odmk.org/ is worth looking at. If you filter out the political points of view you will see a vision for a better Kenya on the economic front. The man is very capable and Kibaki has raised the bar which hitherto Moi's gov had lowered so much that Kibaki had no real difficulty surpassing Moi's economic achievement.

Can Raila surpass Kibakis achievement. I believe the answer is yes.

Daniel Owiti

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