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Thursday, October 18, 2007

Why Raila Odinga Will Lose The Langata Parliamentary Seat

Intensive investigations by Kumekucha clearly show that if elections were to be held today, there is no way that Raila Odinga will be able to retain his Langata constituency seat.

What has been quietly going on at the constituency, behind the scenes is a very deliberate effort to ensure that thousands of Kenyans will be unable to vote not to mention the fact that tens of thousands of voters mainly from Central province have been registered in the constituency to vote with the sole objective of ensuring that the ODM presidential candidate never sees the inside of the 10th parliament, let alone the presidency.

Analysts are seeing a wider scheme that will give the numerous ODM supporters a nasty shock when election results are announced. It is also now crystal clear why the president did not renew deputy chairman Gabriel Mukele’s tenure at the commission despite a lot of pressure from the opposition, civil society and even the diplomatic corps. This latest revelation also clearly gives an indication of why there is no way that experienced Samuel Kivuitu’s contract at the helm of the ECK will be renewed. And this is the reason why the sly old man has started playing politics in a high stakes game that he could easily end up winning. With the latest information, it also now makes a lot of sense to elevate newly appointed commissioner Mrs Pamela Tutui to the helm of ECK. She would have no chance in hell of sorting out the mess that will emerge on election day with majority of Kenyans crying foul, many not fully understating what has been done.

But let me start at the beginning.

Impeccable sources have assured this writer that the President’s team has never quite forgiven the resounding defeat they suffered in the hands of Raila Odinga during the infamous referendum over a new constitution of November 2005. The chain of events that followed the referendum clearly show evidence of bitterness and a hurried emotional decision on the part of the president that almost caused his government to come crashing down.

You will remember that the usually laid back-make-no-hurried-or-drastic-decisions president suddenly made the unprecedented move of sacking all cabinet ministers and the country remained without a cabinet for slightly over 2 weeks. The move was an emotional one to show the enemy who was really in charge but it backfired badly when to the utter shock of Kenyans politicians did what they have never done before. We actually saw cabinet appointees rejecting their appointments. In fact there was a time when it looked like nothing would save the Kibaki government until last minute horse trading brought Musikari Kombo and Charity Ngilu back in line.

It is clear that the bitter taste of those events has never left the president’s mouth and it is difficult for him or any of the PNU top brass to make any speech or public utterance without hurling a barb or two in the direction of Raila Odinga and ODM. In fact the president and his insiders blame every failure of this administration on Raila Odinga and they are very determined to teach the Langata MP a lesson he will never forget.

What makes the Kibaki team even more bitter against Raila is the fact that the ODM presidential candidate used open lies to turn many Kenyans against the altered draft constitution that the Kibaki administration was pushing for which would have guaranteed the President a second term or at the very least more than 7 years at the helm (yes, Kenyans are notorious for not reading the small print).

It is now emerging exactly how that lesson was going to be taught. If all had gone well, then unsuspecting voters would have arrived at polling stations on Election Day only to be told that they have double registered and can therefore not vote.

Kenyans would also have been shocked to see one Stanley Livondo duly elected as the next MP for Langata. The revenge of the referendum losers would have been complete when the ODM presidential candidate despite winning majority votes countrywide would have been disqualified from ascending to the presidency because the constitution clearly demands that the president MUST be an elected member of Parliament.

It is certainly not a good thing for any Kenyan whether PNU supporter or ODM diehard, for the battle for the presidency to be such a personal thing.

My advice to you is that if you are a registered voter in Langata constituency, use this link to check your voter status NOW, before you read the next post or do anything else. This is also something vital for any registered voter to do right away, before it is too late.


Anonymous said...

Whether you use the Calculus, Pythagorus or whichever formula you use... you'll still arrive at the same answer – Raila will never see presidency! Don't even bother checking the ECK register it wont help much. If you are double registered... sorry, ballot box till 2012. If your names and details appear correct, what more can you do to save Raila? What?

5 more years of economic growth, prosperity and good governance from the master of economics!! Am off to order the finest champagne that money can buy... (Chris & ODM nyote mwaalikwa!).

Oh! before I forget! yeah there is Steadman... Chris kindly let them continue "analysing" they need the cash. The results are good, they work like adrenaline in the euphorically-charged masses of One Dangerous Man.

(mr. steel pulse)

bloggeratti said...

News Flash, Chris.

If you believe Kenya will have a president who doesn't manipulate the electoral and govt machinery in his favour, then you can as well believe in Father Christmas!

In my view, if it was Raila, Kalonzo or Dream-on-Muiru in the hotseat, they would do the same!

Mkenya Halisi said...

Chris! I think you shoud forget a 'President Raila' in your lifetime! I wish you saw the arrogance of one Anyang' Nyong'o in Debate '07 on KTN on Wednesday 17/10/07. We expect him and Kajwang to be powerful ministers in Agwambo government!!! They should forget it, the elite Kenyans can read between the lines and would not let the country to go to dogs! NEVER!!!He shoud also not see the 10th Parliament (maybe as a nominated member!)

Anonymous said...

Hey Chris, what happened to the article on Kalonzo that had comments on Raila by one DR. BERNDT SCHNYDER??

Njoroge-mzee wa kijiji said...

The issue of losing the Langata seat is getting real each passing day. I bet teh fact that you are bringing up this issue again in two days speaks volumes. My advise was for Agwambo to first insulate himself from distractions and complications that can hitherto stop his grandmarch. I live, sleep, sneeze and snore the village, and my fellow villagers are unable to stop this engaged train. This is Raila's election to lose. If the elections gets tribal ( and they shall be - see the republican poll)Raila shall kiss goodbye to Langata seat. The Luhya, Kikuyu and offcourse thenubians are the largest voting block in langata this time round ( see citizen newspaper). To Raila, these guys were not happy with teh constitution referendum lose, i bet they believe its payback time. Better land in a safer seat in Nyanza and thus focus on your presidential campaign when the parlimentary seat is secure. This is my humble advise.

On Prof Anyang nyongo - i was very disturbed, you came out poorly in debate 07. If thats whats coming with Raila, my tribesmen (sorry for stooping too low on this one) may shy from supporting him. The arrogance was just too much, i have alot of respect for your academic credentials, but am not sure you are supporting agwambo - As kalembe would say " you may have scared a thousand votes. Please sober up and don't allow emotions and bitterness to drive you. You are a national leader. My fellow villagers are scared stiff. Arrogance does not help the cause nor does it convert for agwambo. Njoroge - Mzee wa kijiji

Anonymous said...

This dangerous man is equivalent to vomit in your bed (after a serious drinking spree) – very uncomfortable & disturbing. The faster you get a fresh set of bedding the better! So Chris, you thought that this was a "STOP-PRESS" kinda issue – Sorry but we love our peace & the fragile harmony that has co-existed between our fellow brethren cannot be entrusted to this Dangerous Man. What you purport to be going on (thats if anything is going on) are just but rumours all in the name of doing extensive investigation. Have you stopped to consider that his preference is dwindling in the lights of Anyang Nyongo, thats why you are out in arms over ECK register? Kenyans are bright people and will not walk the talk (hata wewe Chris unajifanya pumbavu sana, yet you can qualify for more than what you are worth). Of late this blog has become pro-ODM and I wonder what will come of it when all comes crumbling down. The other day you deleted my post, no problem, its your blog at the least, but its very sheepish of you!

BTW... Chris, you seem to be a right-winger of Raila (or better still a next door fish-monger). Please tell me has he got some land that he can till, so that he can age gracefully away from this ridicule? Ama he will be your co-moderator of this blog come 2008?... mavi ya kuku!!!

(mr. steel pulse)

Q said...

I am a luhya living in kibera, let no one lie to you, my tribesmen are all voting for Raila. We cant have another 5 years of Mamlukis and arrogance.

Anonymous said...

Please be advised that All Kenyans in North America support President Kibaki and PNU, let no body fool you that Kenyans in the Diaspora are dessenting voices. we are smart enought to see the development taking place in our country and we love it.

We Love Kenya...

Anonymous said...

Which kenyans in North America are you talking about? Please don't feed us "bull". Most people I know here do not support Kibaki. Also, the crap that Raila will lose in Kibera in sheer nonsense. This government may be desperate, but they too cannot possible pull that one; it would cause the "mother" of all headaches for them

Anonymous said...

What you people have not asked yourself is this, does the constitution say who becomes president if Raila fails to secure the Lang'ata seat? It does not. It is silent on that. You are actually all deceived because you do not offer a solution there. What happens if he secures a majority vote and fails in Lang'ata? Does Kibaki become President? Actually the nation would go into a crisis and chaos would prevail. Kibaki's handlers have bad intentions, but those intentions could bring civil strife to a nation that has been hitherto peaceful.

Anonymous said...

I was never a big Raila fan, Having grown up and raised in Langata until i saw Kibaki's Government. Cronies, Corrupt individuals, Ugly leadership to say the least. Economic growth in Kenya is not his work. The guy is having a mental Shutdown to say the least. Don't you guys listen to things he says in Public???hao wako pale pale, Sisi tuko hapa hapa.??? What does that mean. Kibaki is surrounded by people who dont want to lose power and would do whatever to maintain power and thier big salaries. Kenyans Wake UP!!! I am not a luo but support RAILA to the fullest. its time for Moi, His sons, Biwott, Pattni, Saitoti, Mutula Kilonzo, ohter corrupt kenyan Indians and some people mentione din the Kroll Report to pay. the only way for that to happen is by bidding Kibaki Bye bye and saying hallo to new leadership. But then again i have more question
Log in to my Blog KENYANBOY

Anonymous said...

in response to anonymous who asks what would happen in the fortunate eventuality that raila becomes the president but looses the "kibera Parliamentary seat" ; the constitution silently calls for a repeat of the national poll. the current government goes acting for another ninety days until the polls are repeated thus giving our man from othaya the chane to rightfully claim what is his. I wont bore you with the intricate finer legal details of how this works out. lakini KAZI IENDELEEEE!

wakili mkuu!

Anonymous said...

Politics is a dirty game. The game is on here!!!Let play it by Voting for RAILA.
Thank you
Smart ones

Anonymous said...

Kenyan, kenyans can we do the civil thing here and stop hurling all manner of insults. Point is chris is just trying to stir some debate and instead of sober debate you either come out as pro raila or pro kibaki demagogues. shame on all of you.

Proud kenyan

Anonymous said...

No matter who wins people will still make noise. Why not let the man on the hill continue to rule and we invest in kenya as most of us are doing. Kikuyu's, Luo's Luyia's, kambas etc are invetsting. Cjildren are going to school, Medical treatment is free, Roads are getting smooth etc.

Anonymous said...







Philip Roy said...

What if Kibaki wins?

After five years with all the drama going on inside PNU right now,What will happen in 2012?

Will it be Kibaki Tena, coz as it stands he is the most qualified ever, even Baba Wa taifa aka Moi says so now, after saying a lot of stuff about him in 1992.


Benjamin Bett said...

To claim that Raila will lose the langata seat is as good as saying Mabaki will lose the Othaya seat. This is inviting war in this country. I can NEVER accept election results that show either Mabaki or AGWAMBO the GREAT as losing their parliamentary seats.

Of course the fact that Mabaki will have to resign his parliamentary seat after loosing the elections to AGWAMBI the GREAT is another story for another day in January 08

solomon said...

you'll still arrive at the same answer – Raila will never see presidency! Don't even bother checking the ECK register it wont help much. If you are double registered... sorry, ballot box till 2012. If your names and details appear correct, what more can you do to save Raila? What?

5 more years of economic growth, prosperity and good governance from the master of economics!! Am off to order the finest champagne that money can buy... (Chris & ODM nyote mwaalikwa!).

If raila wins - he should really be scared. Because if epople refuse to see Kibaki's open development record, what makes him think tha kenyans will see his?


Anonymous said...

kibaki anabaki. FULLSTOP.
Let him start removing all his beer cans,panties and all paraphenelia from the house on the hill becoz a new occupant is knocking LOUD on the door!!! To fight AGWAMBO the GREAT in Langata is akin to matching your fiercest dog to a lion. No matter what irregularities Mabaki has in the book, Raila is always TEN GIANT STEPS ahead!!!! The only campaign weapon mabaki has remained with is DISHING out our WEALTH in the name of devt, to every LOCATION he goes to. Question is, WHO will PAY for all these whatevers he is dishing out in the long run??????????????????

Anonymous said...

I want to assure you and its unfortunate that some of you from the house of Mumbi (The Tribal Kikuyus) are still unable to see beyond your tribalistic view-points that Langata is Raila's, left-right-center and whichever direction you may think of.

Raila is not only Kenya's next President (Thanks to the rest of majority open-minded Kenyan voters from the other 41 tribes) but will rule Kenya in the best way Kenyans have always wanted. The guy represents real Change and is not only the best Kenya can have but is an African icon.
Kibera Voter

Anonymous said...

Raila will not and i repeat will not loose his Langata seat. This is the propaganda by the government to keep him occuppied in Langata and keep him away from keeping in touch with other human beings.
Kenyans in Diaspora especially in North AMERICA are in full support of RAILA. I swear by the living God if they were to vote 90% of them will go for Raila. Case when Raila came to DENVER. All tribes came except the usual suspects. Minnesota it was flocked and New Jersey the same. AGWAMBO TOSHA.

Anonymous said...

....This latest revelation also clearly gives an indication of why there is no way that experienced Samuel Kivuitu’s contract at the helm of the ECK will be renewed.

You were saying?

Anonymous said...

definition: being tribal is supporting a fellow tribesman REGARDLESS of their stand.

supporting a fellow tribesman becaouse of their values, or what they believve in is not tribalism. a luo supporting raila for what the believe in is no necesarily tribalism. neither is a kikuyu supporting kibaki for his record and beliefs.

we are all kenyans. lets stop being FANATICS of one or the other. lets scrutinise the facts SOBERLY. remeber its 5 YEARS! THE NUMBER OF YEARS you are voting for someone to be in your life.

I won't tell you whom to vote for but am praying that God reveals the truth to us. honestly, i believe we should all work together for a common good.

sadly, everyone here claims to argue from a point of knowledge by supporting their candidates blindly. everyone here, i bet, is not here to be convinced but to convince. futile!!! if only we were discussing God so passionatly. then, am sure He'd give us a leader who would see to both(raila's and kibaki's teams) needs.


Omulalu said...

Qouting yesterdays saturday nation, "According to Infotrak Harris poll, Central Province residents top the list of potential voters who believe that things have improved at 87 per cent while Nyanza take the number one position of those who differ at 70.

In Western, Rift Valley, Eastern, Coast, Nairobi and North Eastern more than half of the potential voters believe that things are yet to improve". Could this be strong evedince for unequal distribution of resources other kenyans have been complaining about? By the way, i am not a Luo, am a Luhya from Kakamega and will vote for Raila.Let no one cheat kibaki that he has support from Kakamega. No reasonable kenyan is ready for a tribal government.

John S Mbayaki
Mines, CO. USA.


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