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Thursday, October 18, 2007

Why Raila Odinga Will Lose The Langata Parliamentary Seat

Intensive investigations by Kumekucha clearly show that if elections were to be held today, there is no way that Raila Odinga will be able to retain his Langata constituency seat.

What has been quietly going on at the constituency, behind the scenes is a very deliberate effort to ensure that thousands of Kenyans will be unable to vote not to mention the fact that tens of thousands of voters mainly from Central province have been registered in the constituency to vote with the sole objective of ensuring that the ODM presidential candidate never sees the inside of the 10th parliament, let alone the presidency.

Analysts are seeing a wider scheme that will give the numerous ODM supporters a nasty shock when election results are announced. It is also now crystal clear why the president did not renew deputy chairman Gabriel Mukele’s tenure at the commission despite a lot of pressure from the opposition, civil society and even the diplomatic corps. This latest revelation also clearly gives an indication of why there is no way that experienced Samuel Kivuitu’s contract at the helm of the ECK will be renewed. And this is the reason why the sly old man has started playing politics in a high stakes game that he could easily end up winning. With the latest information, it also now makes a lot of sense to elevate newly appointed commissioner Mrs Pamela Tutui to the helm of ECK. She would have no chance in hell of sorting out the mess that will emerge on election day with majority of Kenyans crying foul, many not fully understating what has been done.

But let me start at the beginning.

Impeccable sources have assured this writer that the President’s team has never quite forgiven the resounding defeat they suffered in the hands of Raila Odinga during the infamous referendum over a new constitution of November 2005. The chain of events that followed the referendum clearly show evidence of bitterness and a hurried emotional decision on the part of the president that almost caused his government to come crashing down.

You will remember that the usually laid back-make-no-hurried-or-drastic-decisions president suddenly made the unprecedented move of sacking all cabinet ministers and the country remained without a cabinet for slightly over 2 weeks. The move was an emotional one to show the enemy who was really in charge but it backfired badly when to the utter shock of Kenyans politicians did what they have never done before. We actually saw cabinet appointees rejecting their appointments. In fact there was a time when it looked like nothing would save the Kibaki government until last minute horse trading brought Musikari Kombo and Charity Ngilu back in line.

It is clear that the bitter taste of those events has never left the president’s mouth and it is difficult for him or any of the PNU top brass to make any speech or public utterance without hurling a barb or two in the direction of Raila Odinga and ODM. In fact the president and his insiders blame every failure of this administration on Raila Odinga and they are very determined to teach the Langata MP a lesson he will never forget.

What makes the Kibaki team even more bitter against Raila is the fact that the ODM presidential candidate used open lies to turn many Kenyans against the altered draft constitution that the Kibaki administration was pushing for which would have guaranteed the President a second term or at the very least more than 7 years at the helm (yes, Kenyans are notorious for not reading the small print).

It is now emerging exactly how that lesson was going to be taught. If all had gone well, then unsuspecting voters would have arrived at polling stations on Election Day only to be told that they have double registered and can therefore not vote.

Kenyans would also have been shocked to see one Stanley Livondo duly elected as the next MP for Langata. The revenge of the referendum losers would have been complete when the ODM presidential candidate despite winning majority votes countrywide would have been disqualified from ascending to the presidency because the constitution clearly demands that the president MUST be an elected member of Parliament.

It is certainly not a good thing for any Kenyan whether PNU supporter or ODM diehard, for the battle for the presidency to be such a personal thing.

My advice to you is that if you are a registered voter in Langata constituency, use this link to check your voter status NOW, before you read the next post or do anything else. This is also something vital for any registered voter to do right away, before it is too late.