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Saturday, November 17, 2007

Will ODM-Kenya Be The Surprise Party Of the 2007 General Elections?

Long before the elections we discussed an interesting strategy that KANU was putting in place then that would position the party perfectly to receive the inevitable fall out from the nominations.

Well Kanu bigwigs changed their minds and threw in their lot with incumbent Mwai Kibaki, but their strategy now seems to have been taken up by Hoo Ndii Emm.

Details are still emerging but ODM-K top officials have been busy today receiving defectors from both sides of the divide.

Actually this puts the party in a stronger position than most people may realize. It means that the party has a good chance of spreading its’ tentacles into both PNU and ODM strongholds. The end result is that this party of all parties will end up with the most nationalistic outlook of all 3 major political parties. From my quick projections it could also mean that ODM-K will end up with the second largest number of seats in the 10th parliament.

Clearly this is not a party that can be ignored. In fact those Kenyans who have not being paying enough attention to what Kalonzo Musyoka is saying (including your truly) needs to wake up and start listening carefully. It is very possible that this will be the most important political party in the house and could form the backbone of the opposition in the 10th parliament.

Admittedly Hoo Ndii Emms’ Chungwa House was also packed with complaining aspirants who claim that they had lost in unfair polls. These were mostly from Ukambani and many were demanding a refund of their nomination fees. Fortunately the impact of these losers will be very minimal and will hardly affect the results in Hoo Ndii Emm’s favour right across the Ukambani districts.

There is one other key issue that many political analysts have been ignoring. It is the fact that the more MPs a political party gets into parliament, the more votes its’ presidential candidate will end up with. The reality on the ground is that when a parliamentary candidate convinces the electorate, they will tend to also vote for his or her presidential candidate. Keen observers need to start considering the possibility of Kalonzo Musyoka ending up in the top two, when the results are tallied up.

As I did this post, the results from the nominations were still trickling in but the general feeling is that as I said here months ago, politicians are for the first time facing some very angry voters who have a point to prove. The latest information indicates that giants have fallen en masse. See my other post.

1 comment:

Vee said...

I've been watching the ODM-K camp since the nominations began and I tend to agree with you on it being the surprise party of 2007. I don't see them however forming the next government but I would be really happy if they formed the bulk of the next opposition (whoever takes over). Their visionary ideas & young squad would hopefully keep the next government on their toes.

As I listened to Kalonzo answer Julie Gichuru's questions yesterday "On the Spot" yesterday I realized that he does have some very viable ideas in mind. But the one question I felt he was unable to give a solid answer for is how he (and his proposed govt) would fund all these ideas. What I think he lacks is an Economist's mind especially in explaning how he plans to get our Economy up to double digit growth.

Another thing is that since Friday, I've seen Kalonzo too much on the TV screen welcoming defectors. As a Presidential candidate he should be criss crossing the country a second time pushing his agenda forward. The defectors can be welcomed by the chairman of the ODM-K board.

The fact that he is the only Presidential candidate with a female vice is also endearing and I think ODM-K should come up with a strategy where Julia is shown off to the public more often, along side Kalonzo and discussing issues that affect women greatly. We need to see her in North Eastern discussing early marriages, F.G.M, rape et al. We need to see her in the slums talking with women who've been harassed by cops, lost their sons in the Mungiki wars. We need to see her help pull down a Changaa den alongside women who are sick and tired of seeing their men waste away to drinking.

Basically I think ODM-K lacks a strong strategy to win the elections but they do have a chance to work at it for another 5 years and get it right.

Meanwhile, let's see what Raila has to say tonight when he is On The Spot on NTV.


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