Listening to Mwai Kibaki yesterday, any alert Kenyan would have concluded that we are in very serious trouble. The “duly elected president” was at his vintage best (for those who know him well).
Firstly he pulled away Prof Sam Ongeri from the Anan talks a clear indication that launching the free secondary school education program was more important than those talks which so many Kenyans are hanging all their hopes on (pole sana). The whole idea is to prop up his government and emphasize business as usual (which is what every middle class and wealthy Kenyan is desperate for, for mostly selfish reasons).
Secondly Mwai Kibaki also talked at length about resettling displaced persons and the government helping them to rebuild their houses. I do not for one minute support the gruesome murder and chaos that has been going on, but what do you think the other side felt? Those with land issues high on their agenda. The president was behaving as if all that has happened means nothing.
Then there was another even clearer sign that all was not well. Annan came out of the talks yesterday looking a very tired and frustrated man. He asked the press to leave him alone and then took a long walk along Kenyatta Avenue with his bodyguards in tow. Later in the evening, he issued a statement announcing a news blackout on the talks and a last dash 48 to 72 hours to reach an agreement of sorts. It seems everybody has forgotten the strange events of last Friday when a breakthrough was announced and then when everybody went to Harambee house nothing happened.
Previous posts here by Taabu and Kalamari are pretty accurate about the state of affairs and it is clear from the comments that followed them that many Kenyans have a lot of hope riding on the Anan talks. Those Kenyans are not very different from Mwai Kibaki asking victims of post election violence to go back to the Rift Valley and promising that the government (which is rapidly running out of cash and resources) will build houses for them. In fact he made this announcement shortly after launching free secondary school education. Mr Kibaki must know something that we don’t, it seems that Kenya has discovered gold and oil at the same time, so money is no longer a problem despite the huge tourism earnings being wiped out.
If I were to tell you all about the real situation on the ground, it would be incitement. But let me censor things a little and give you an idea.
The Kalenjin community are far from being tired from all the violence. I actually grew up with kalenjins when I was very young and I was pretty sure that I know the community well. The events since December 30th have shown me that I know nothing. Many Kenyans are not aware f the fact that at one point the Kalenjin militia exchanged fire with the Kenya army. In the environs of Nakuru. The professional soldiers easily won ove the amateur ones, but my point is; can you imagine the cheek of attempting something so reckless?
You would need to visit the Rift Valley to understand the reality of the damage that has been done there. Heavily edited TV footage does not do justice to the situation on the ground.
But what makes it difficult for me to sleep at night is the attitude on the ground of this community. For starters they are NOT interested in a coalition government. Not even one with Raila as the president. All they want is the government they voted for in power.
One of my informants on the ground put it thus;
“I was amazed when a Kenyan from this community who hardly seems to have spent too long a period in a classroom told me that the idea is to cripple all transport to neighboring Uganda, Rwanda etc and get those people to join their side in the war. I almost asked him what War, but quickly checked myself. You don’t ask such questions in the Rift Valley.”
The Kikuyu have re-grouped very quickly and it seems that funds are flowing to he Mungiki so much so that unlike the Kalenjin militia, these guys don’t need to set up road blocks or get “taxes”. Where is the cash coming from? This makes these guys very focused in the things that they do. As you read this, Naivasha town has changed into some medieval town overnight where you will not find a single woman wearing trousers.
I cannot say more, but take it from me, things are not good.
To avert disaster what Kenyans badly need now is a peacekeeping force from the AU or UN to come into the country and stop the killings (which are on the increase by the way). The second agenda would be to find a way to come up with brand new constitution without involving the current crop of politicians who have brought the country to its’ knees. Then we need a new election where everybody who has ever been to parliament will be barred from standing for office. I am convinced that this will give us true leaders from he fresh crop (leaders are incidentally created at a time of great crisis such as his one). Anybody who claims that we have leaders in Kenya at the moment should have their heads examined.
P.S. I am also desperate for life to return to normal in Kenya. Most of my family including very close relatives is still in Kenya. But I have to be realistic based on the facts that I have. There is no point coming here and cheating my readers that all is well and that something will come out of the Anan talks. Still I would love to be wrong on this one folks, I really worry a lot.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Dr Mutua’s Inclusion In Visa Ban being Discussed?
As Hardliners In Kibaki Government Reign Supreme
It was here in Kumekucha, early last month that we informed you that the International community was discussing possible Visa bans against prominent Kenyans who have contributed to the crisis in the country.
As you read this 10 Kenyans from both sides of the political divide are already on a list that should be made public soon. This initial list has no surprises and includes mainly individuals who should have had this Visa ban slapped on them years ago. Most of them featured prominently in the infamous Kroll report. As it is some analysts feel that it is too little late. However there is no denying the fact that it will hurt the individuals and their immediate families a great deal. Students will be deported from universities and wives who enjoyed frequent London or Dubai shopping trips will have less to talk and brag about at their next social.
But what should be even more interesting is the next list of 30 that the Americans have revealed that they are working on. Unconfirmed reports reaching Kumekucha indicate that the name of Dr Alfred Mutua the government spokesman may be on that list for issuing inflammatory statements before and after the crisis. Naturally this means that the name of his wife is also on the said list.
If this report turns out to be true numerous Kenyans will be delighted. It is even more hilarious because Mutua has recently released a statement praising the Visa ban and calling for the release of the names of persons on the list.
The so-called government spokesman has behaved in a manner that has put the entire PR profession into disrepute and derision. One friend has described him as “a nasty piece of work.” In fact charges should be preferred against Dr Mutua and his counterpart at the police headquarters, this Kiraithe man for spreading falsehoods. It is ludicrous that Kenyans expect their young ones and future generations to be model citizens incapable of picking up pangas to attack their neighbors when they lack role models and instead have the likes of Mutua and Kiraithe to look up to who repeatedly go on air to spread blatant lies in full view of their own children and even grand children. Remember the widely circulated story from Kiraithe and company to the effect that the clip showing a policeman shooting and killing an unarmed demonstrator in Kisumu was computer generated trickery akin to a Rambo movie? The latest is that the police officer involved, Edward Kirui has been arrested and will be charged with murder. See what I am talking about?
The inclusion of Mutua’s name on the list may just end up saving thousands of Kenyan youths from turning into serial liars and criminals.
Meanwhile the actions of the Kibaki administration clearly indicates that after weeks of uncertainty, the hardliners are firmly back at the helm. The idea of having both an Igad and East African Community meeting in Nairobi was the kind of evil idea that would only have emerged from the Kitchen cabinet. This group of old men seem to have been under the illusion that nobody would think much of the meetings and nobody would guess what their intentions were—namely to legitimize the Kibaki government. Actually this is one of the major causes of the crisis; that is people in the Kibaki government assuming that Kenyans are fools. The EAC meeting was postponed late yesterday and it is clear this happened because of the pressure from the opposition and the civil society.
What should worry Kenyans even more is that the hardliners are fully in charge as the so-called Annan peace talks are going on. It is already quite clear that the Kibaki camp will never change its’ position and they are only at the negotiating table to buy time so that things cool down.
Nothing but divine intervention can save Kenya now.
It was here in Kumekucha, early last month that we informed you that the International community was discussing possible Visa bans against prominent Kenyans who have contributed to the crisis in the country.
As you read this 10 Kenyans from both sides of the political divide are already on a list that should be made public soon. This initial list has no surprises and includes mainly individuals who should have had this Visa ban slapped on them years ago. Most of them featured prominently in the infamous Kroll report. As it is some analysts feel that it is too little late. However there is no denying the fact that it will hurt the individuals and their immediate families a great deal. Students will be deported from universities and wives who enjoyed frequent London or Dubai shopping trips will have less to talk and brag about at their next social.
But what should be even more interesting is the next list of 30 that the Americans have revealed that they are working on. Unconfirmed reports reaching Kumekucha indicate that the name of Dr Alfred Mutua the government spokesman may be on that list for issuing inflammatory statements before and after the crisis. Naturally this means that the name of his wife is also on the said list.
If this report turns out to be true numerous Kenyans will be delighted. It is even more hilarious because Mutua has recently released a statement praising the Visa ban and calling for the release of the names of persons on the list.
The so-called government spokesman has behaved in a manner that has put the entire PR profession into disrepute and derision. One friend has described him as “a nasty piece of work.” In fact charges should be preferred against Dr Mutua and his counterpart at the police headquarters, this Kiraithe man for spreading falsehoods. It is ludicrous that Kenyans expect their young ones and future generations to be model citizens incapable of picking up pangas to attack their neighbors when they lack role models and instead have the likes of Mutua and Kiraithe to look up to who repeatedly go on air to spread blatant lies in full view of their own children and even grand children. Remember the widely circulated story from Kiraithe and company to the effect that the clip showing a policeman shooting and killing an unarmed demonstrator in Kisumu was computer generated trickery akin to a Rambo movie? The latest is that the police officer involved, Edward Kirui has been arrested and will be charged with murder. See what I am talking about?
The inclusion of Mutua’s name on the list may just end up saving thousands of Kenyan youths from turning into serial liars and criminals.
Meanwhile the actions of the Kibaki administration clearly indicates that after weeks of uncertainty, the hardliners are firmly back at the helm. The idea of having both an Igad and East African Community meeting in Nairobi was the kind of evil idea that would only have emerged from the Kitchen cabinet. This group of old men seem to have been under the illusion that nobody would think much of the meetings and nobody would guess what their intentions were—namely to legitimize the Kibaki government. Actually this is one of the major causes of the crisis; that is people in the Kibaki government assuming that Kenyans are fools. The EAC meeting was postponed late yesterday and it is clear this happened because of the pressure from the opposition and the civil society.
What should worry Kenyans even more is that the hardliners are fully in charge as the so-called Annan peace talks are going on. It is already quite clear that the Kibaki camp will never change its’ position and they are only at the negotiating table to buy time so that things cool down.
Nothing but divine intervention can save Kenya now.
Is The Kenyan Economy On The Brink Of Shutting Down?
Plus: What will happen when you meet a Kibaki descendant at some cocktail party 30 years from now.
Business and economics is boring to most people, but I will keep this very simple, so please bear with me. This is very important and is bound to affect every Kenyan.
Over 300 CEOS based in Kenya recently came out in a strong lobby to political leaders to come back to their senses. Led by the brilliant Safaricom CEO Michael Joseph, the most important part of their message was a warning. Some politicians seem to think that if the violence were to stop today, life would immediately go back to normal. It is not quite as simple as that and after you read through this post, you will begin to understand why.
Let’s say you were a chief executive of a company handling consumer products, sitting somewhere in Industrial Area Nairobi. Where would your big markets be? Here I am sure I will surprise you.
Nairobi would naturally be your biggest market, especially the slum areas and low income estates. Have you ever wondered why every consumer product these days has a miniature size of everything? That is the market segment where most companies make their profits. Now we know the Kibera is virtually shut down and Mathare is almost there.
Then there is another problem. The vast majority of residents in those areas survive from hand to mouth. That means the Kshs 150 or 200 that they get paid daily for casual labor is what they will take to the shop to make their purchases for the day. Many of these people have not done any work since December 30th last year. Others make money from the daily sales of “mboga” (vegetables). We are all aware that many folks have not done any business since before the elections.
Back to our CEO seated in Nairobi. With things in a mess in Nairobi, it is only natural that you as CEO will need to look to your other large markets starting with Mombasa. Now don’t even go there because the tourism industry is no more. Interestingly there are many businesses in Nairobi that have been sustaining a large staff based on strong sales in Mombasa.
That would leave you as CEO with only the Mount Kenya region and parts of Eastern province which have also been affected indirectly because there are people there whose business relies on selling to customers in the affected regions of the country.
When you sit down and analyze the effects of the post election crisis, it becomes clear every single area of the economy has been affected and even if peace were to suddenly return now, over 50 per cent of the economy is gone with tourism (mainly at the Coast) and Kenya’s bread basket in the Rift Valley, topping the list of casualties.
The impact all this is having on unemployment is colossal. So colossal that it is a very serious threat to national security.
Interestingly these are boom times for certain service industries. One excellent example is the mobile telephony industry. When there is a crisis, communication increases and whatever little money that is flowing the economy will find its’ way into the pockets of mobile phone service providers like Safaricom and Celtel.
Let me end this post by saying something about the Kenya shilling. I don’t know how long the government will be able to prop up the Kenya shilling for. But there is suspicion that this is being done to allow some certain fat cats to transfer their local assets to some safe havens outside the country. Incidentally Swiss accounts and European cities are no longer considered safe (the Kroll report blew that myth sky high). New destinations include other African countries like Namibia (large amounts of the stolen Moi assets have been transferred there) and a few other African countries. These sources claim that as soon as this exercise is over, the shilling will drop to its’ real value (estimated at around Kshs 80 to the dollar currently and still falling).
P.S. Whatever happens next, history will remember Mwai Kibaki as the one term president and former economics professor who made a terrible miscalculation that cost Kenyans dearly. I don’t envy future generations of the Kibakis. Imagine meeting a young Kibaki somewhere 30 years from now. The conversation would go something like this.
You: Kibaki? Any relations to the former president?
Kibaki: I am the great grandson, but please keep it secret, my life has been miserable because of it and there is nowhere in the world I can hide.
You: You can’t really blame people can you, your great grandfather was responsible for the deaths of thousands of Kenyans and some very serious distraction. I’m sorry but this is too emotional for me, please allow me to mingle with other guests.
(You will then make a quick exit muttering unprintable words under your breath).
Business and economics is boring to most people, but I will keep this very simple, so please bear with me. This is very important and is bound to affect every Kenyan.
Over 300 CEOS based in Kenya recently came out in a strong lobby to political leaders to come back to their senses. Led by the brilliant Safaricom CEO Michael Joseph, the most important part of their message was a warning. Some politicians seem to think that if the violence were to stop today, life would immediately go back to normal. It is not quite as simple as that and after you read through this post, you will begin to understand why.
Let’s say you were a chief executive of a company handling consumer products, sitting somewhere in Industrial Area Nairobi. Where would your big markets be? Here I am sure I will surprise you.
Nairobi would naturally be your biggest market, especially the slum areas and low income estates. Have you ever wondered why every consumer product these days has a miniature size of everything? That is the market segment where most companies make their profits. Now we know the Kibera is virtually shut down and Mathare is almost there.
Then there is another problem. The vast majority of residents in those areas survive from hand to mouth. That means the Kshs 150 or 200 that they get paid daily for casual labor is what they will take to the shop to make their purchases for the day. Many of these people have not done any work since December 30th last year. Others make money from the daily sales of “mboga” (vegetables). We are all aware that many folks have not done any business since before the elections.
Back to our CEO seated in Nairobi. With things in a mess in Nairobi, it is only natural that you as CEO will need to look to your other large markets starting with Mombasa. Now don’t even go there because the tourism industry is no more. Interestingly there are many businesses in Nairobi that have been sustaining a large staff based on strong sales in Mombasa.
That would leave you as CEO with only the Mount Kenya region and parts of Eastern province which have also been affected indirectly because there are people there whose business relies on selling to customers in the affected regions of the country.
When you sit down and analyze the effects of the post election crisis, it becomes clear every single area of the economy has been affected and even if peace were to suddenly return now, over 50 per cent of the economy is gone with tourism (mainly at the Coast) and Kenya’s bread basket in the Rift Valley, topping the list of casualties.
The impact all this is having on unemployment is colossal. So colossal that it is a very serious threat to national security.
Interestingly these are boom times for certain service industries. One excellent example is the mobile telephony industry. When there is a crisis, communication increases and whatever little money that is flowing the economy will find its’ way into the pockets of mobile phone service providers like Safaricom and Celtel.
Let me end this post by saying something about the Kenya shilling. I don’t know how long the government will be able to prop up the Kenya shilling for. But there is suspicion that this is being done to allow some certain fat cats to transfer their local assets to some safe havens outside the country. Incidentally Swiss accounts and European cities are no longer considered safe (the Kroll report blew that myth sky high). New destinations include other African countries like Namibia (large amounts of the stolen Moi assets have been transferred there) and a few other African countries. These sources claim that as soon as this exercise is over, the shilling will drop to its’ real value (estimated at around Kshs 80 to the dollar currently and still falling).
P.S. Whatever happens next, history will remember Mwai Kibaki as the one term president and former economics professor who made a terrible miscalculation that cost Kenyans dearly. I don’t envy future generations of the Kibakis. Imagine meeting a young Kibaki somewhere 30 years from now. The conversation would go something like this.
You: Kibaki? Any relations to the former president?
Kibaki: I am the great grandson, but please keep it secret, my life has been miserable because of it and there is nowhere in the world I can hide.
You: You can’t really blame people can you, your great grandfather was responsible for the deaths of thousands of Kenyans and some very serious distraction. I’m sorry but this is too emotional for me, please allow me to mingle with other guests.
(You will then make a quick exit muttering unprintable words under your breath).
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Kumekucha Forecasts for 2008
The question on everybody’s mind is when will the current crisis end?
My answer: Not quickly enough. As you read this my firm belief is that the peace of Kenya is now out of the hands of the two major protagonists, namely the MP for Othaya Hon Mwai Kibaki and the MP for Langata Hon Raila Odinga. PNU are nervously cheering on Mungiki and ODM are nervously cheering on the Kalenjin, Luo and Luhya militia. Both parties hope that these violent groups will help them achieve their objectives. What they don’t seem to realize is that even if they sign an agreement today, ending the current violence will be very difficult. You see the problem with violence is that it begets more violence and it becomes an endless spiral or bottomless pit of violence and more violence. The truth is that negotiations should involve representatives of ordinary Kenyans. Back to answering the question. The violence will drag on for a number of weeks at the very least and for a couple of months at the most. It all depends on how quickly those involved in the negotiations move to address the core underlying issues that are the cause of the violence and were only triggered by what many saw as a stolen election.
To understand the three classes of Kenyans and what they wish for, please read my previous post.
What will happen to the economy?
Finance minister Amos “the stock exchange is not a fish market” Kimunya said with a straight face the other day that the Kenyan economy will hardly feel the effects of the violence if a quick agreement is reached in the ongoing negotiations. He even said that rebuilding and repairing the mess will spur growth.
One does not need to be an economist to realize that this cock and bull story is rubbish. The truth is that the Central bank has been making every effort to shore up the shilling by flooding the market with dollars in a vain attempt to ensure that their well laid plan do not change. But even the Central bank has so many dollars and no more.
Any day now we will see the shilling in a free fall against major foreign currencies like the dollar. I am told that a packet of maize flour is over Kshs 100/- in Malindi. This is just a sign of things to come. But what is even more worrying is the threat of serious hunger. Remember that the houses in the Rift Valley were not the only things that were being set on fire. Acres of maize and other foods were also being set on fire. If it is true that the Rift Valley is the bread basket of the nation, then we know what to expect, don’t we? Remember that even if the peace talks yield fruit quickly, this will help but it will not bring back the burnt food. Brace yourself for a weaker shilling and also to pay very high prices for food.
Read what experts say about the food situation in Kenya
What will happen politically?
Kenyans will end up with the many reforms that they have yearned for including a new constitution. However the sad question that keeps on nagging at me is that how much blood of Kenyans will pay for this? Actually only one man can begin to have any idea when it comes to answering this question. And that’s the MP for Othaya who currently wields the immense powers of the presidency of Kenya.
My answer: Not quickly enough. As you read this my firm belief is that the peace of Kenya is now out of the hands of the two major protagonists, namely the MP for Othaya Hon Mwai Kibaki and the MP for Langata Hon Raila Odinga. PNU are nervously cheering on Mungiki and ODM are nervously cheering on the Kalenjin, Luo and Luhya militia. Both parties hope that these violent groups will help them achieve their objectives. What they don’t seem to realize is that even if they sign an agreement today, ending the current violence will be very difficult. You see the problem with violence is that it begets more violence and it becomes an endless spiral or bottomless pit of violence and more violence. The truth is that negotiations should involve representatives of ordinary Kenyans. Back to answering the question. The violence will drag on for a number of weeks at the very least and for a couple of months at the most. It all depends on how quickly those involved in the negotiations move to address the core underlying issues that are the cause of the violence and were only triggered by what many saw as a stolen election.
To understand the three classes of Kenyans and what they wish for, please read my previous post.
What will happen to the economy?
Finance minister Amos “the stock exchange is not a fish market” Kimunya said with a straight face the other day that the Kenyan economy will hardly feel the effects of the violence if a quick agreement is reached in the ongoing negotiations. He even said that rebuilding and repairing the mess will spur growth.
One does not need to be an economist to realize that this cock and bull story is rubbish. The truth is that the Central bank has been making every effort to shore up the shilling by flooding the market with dollars in a vain attempt to ensure that their well laid plan do not change. But even the Central bank has so many dollars and no more.
Any day now we will see the shilling in a free fall against major foreign currencies like the dollar. I am told that a packet of maize flour is over Kshs 100/- in Malindi. This is just a sign of things to come. But what is even more worrying is the threat of serious hunger. Remember that the houses in the Rift Valley were not the only things that were being set on fire. Acres of maize and other foods were also being set on fire. If it is true that the Rift Valley is the bread basket of the nation, then we know what to expect, don’t we? Remember that even if the peace talks yield fruit quickly, this will help but it will not bring back the burnt food. Brace yourself for a weaker shilling and also to pay very high prices for food.
Read what experts say about the food situation in Kenya
What will happen politically?
Kenyans will end up with the many reforms that they have yearned for including a new constitution. However the sad question that keeps on nagging at me is that how much blood of Kenyans will pay for this? Actually only one man can begin to have any idea when it comes to answering this question. And that’s the MP for Othaya who currently wields the immense powers of the presidency of Kenya.
The Amazing Kumekucha Predictions
Regulars of Kumekucha have noted that nine out of ten times, I tend to correctly predict exactly what is going to happen next. My analysis which most readers start by disagreeing with, always end up being spot on. I am not one to brag; rather I wanted to give our numerous new readers a little background before I dive into today’s rather detailed post.
Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.
- When everybody else was calling political analyst Muahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in th event that he was defeated.
- Kumekucha kept on calling the coming elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right.
- In probably the most ominous post ever in this blog, on the even of the election Kumekucha I openly shared my fears on the elections and the big danger that lay ahead for Kenyans. Youi can read the post for yourself here.
There is really no big deal here. I believe 1,000 per cent that we are all prepared for certain times and to accomplish certain tasks during our lives. The trick is to listen to your inner voice and don’t ask too many questions.
It amazes me how from the launch of this blog, I have always found myself discussing the issue of the injustices committed against the Luo community in this country and the fact that many of their sons have been murdered. We have repeatedly said here that unless this injustices were addressed, they were a time bomb waiting to explode. I am greatly distressed over what has happened in our country but I dare say that somebody who has been reading Kumekucha over the last two years understands the issues much better that many other Kenyans. And I DON’T say that with a single iota of pride in me. Anybody else would have been prepared.
It is with this in mind that I will attempt to answer my reader’s question about what we should expect in Kenya over the next year or so.
We have suffered so much bad news in recent times so let me start with the good news.
Kenya will emerge from this crisis, a united nation and stronger that it has ever been. Certain “proud” tribes with a strong superiority complex will have a much deeper respect for others and we shall greatly thrive in our diversity. Kenya shall; have a new constitution which will give much more power to the common man and the horrors of the Kroll report and grand corruption where a handful of people own the nation will be a thing of the past. What will follow will be such immense economic growth and development that other countries in Africa and beyond will envy Kenya and wonder what it is about this country called Kenya.
But what scares me is the bridge that we have to cross to reach that Canaan.
Currently the divide between the rich and the desperate is very pronounced. In fact we have three different groups of people in Kenya with very different aspirations at the moment.
Firstly, the rich wonder why the peasant savages are slaughtering each other ) even if they have been paid to do so). They are desperate that things should go back to normal as soon as possible so that they can go back to their previous life and continue to make their money and do their deals. Some good folks in this group believe that if only Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga can sit down and agree to share power, everything will go back to normal and they will be able to have their old life back. Many of the people in this group have made arrangements of where in the world they are going to live if the situation continues the way it is currently.
Then we have Kenya’s know-it-all middle class folks. They are eager for this crisis to end as soon as possible so that they can go back to their old comfortable life. Some people in this group have been laid off and are very angry at either Raila or Kibaki depending on which side of the political divide they fall. Many of the people in this group are regular readers of this blog and are the owners of the very opinionated, biased and sometimes uninformed comments that they leave in this blog. Some of the wealthier middle class Kenyans view this whole business as a game of sorts, that they have to win.
The third group which has the vast majority is the group I will call the desperados. These are the ordinary Kenyans or ordinary Mwananchi, if you like. The problem is that most Kenyans in the other two classes do not understand these folks and neither are they interested in understanding the. This is one of the reasons why we are in the mess we are in today. Fascinatingly despite the hardships, deaths etc. there guys do not want the current crisis to be resolved too quickly. Many of those involved in violence have never been gainfully employed and would love for the violence to drag on for months and will in fact do anything for this to happen. Others are being fed in refugee camps and for the first time in a long time do not have to worry themselves sick about where their next meal is going to come from. I dare say that some of them are feeding much better now than they have ever fed in their entire lives. Very sad but also very true. This the cheap labor from which the filthy rich in Kenya have been able to make their fortunes from. This group dreams of genuine change in Kenya and a new political dispensation that will give them a fighting chance.
In my next post I make my predictions of what Kenyans can expect.
Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.
- When everybody else was calling political analyst Muahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in th event that he was defeated.
- Kumekucha kept on calling the coming elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right.
- In probably the most ominous post ever in this blog, on the even of the election Kumekucha I openly shared my fears on the elections and the big danger that lay ahead for Kenyans. Youi can read the post for yourself here.
There is really no big deal here. I believe 1,000 per cent that we are all prepared for certain times and to accomplish certain tasks during our lives. The trick is to listen to your inner voice and don’t ask too many questions.
It amazes me how from the launch of this blog, I have always found myself discussing the issue of the injustices committed against the Luo community in this country and the fact that many of their sons have been murdered. We have repeatedly said here that unless this injustices were addressed, they were a time bomb waiting to explode. I am greatly distressed over what has happened in our country but I dare say that somebody who has been reading Kumekucha over the last two years understands the issues much better that many other Kenyans. And I DON’T say that with a single iota of pride in me. Anybody else would have been prepared.
It is with this in mind that I will attempt to answer my reader’s question about what we should expect in Kenya over the next year or so.
We have suffered so much bad news in recent times so let me start with the good news.
Kenya will emerge from this crisis, a united nation and stronger that it has ever been. Certain “proud” tribes with a strong superiority complex will have a much deeper respect for others and we shall greatly thrive in our diversity. Kenya shall; have a new constitution which will give much more power to the common man and the horrors of the Kroll report and grand corruption where a handful of people own the nation will be a thing of the past. What will follow will be such immense economic growth and development that other countries in Africa and beyond will envy Kenya and wonder what it is about this country called Kenya.
But what scares me is the bridge that we have to cross to reach that Canaan.
Currently the divide between the rich and the desperate is very pronounced. In fact we have three different groups of people in Kenya with very different aspirations at the moment.
Firstly, the rich wonder why the peasant savages are slaughtering each other ) even if they have been paid to do so). They are desperate that things should go back to normal as soon as possible so that they can go back to their previous life and continue to make their money and do their deals. Some good folks in this group believe that if only Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga can sit down and agree to share power, everything will go back to normal and they will be able to have their old life back. Many of the people in this group have made arrangements of where in the world they are going to live if the situation continues the way it is currently.
Then we have Kenya’s know-it-all middle class folks. They are eager for this crisis to end as soon as possible so that they can go back to their old comfortable life. Some people in this group have been laid off and are very angry at either Raila or Kibaki depending on which side of the political divide they fall. Many of the people in this group are regular readers of this blog and are the owners of the very opinionated, biased and sometimes uninformed comments that they leave in this blog. Some of the wealthier middle class Kenyans view this whole business as a game of sorts, that they have to win.
The third group which has the vast majority is the group I will call the desperados. These are the ordinary Kenyans or ordinary Mwananchi, if you like. The problem is that most Kenyans in the other two classes do not understand these folks and neither are they interested in understanding the. This is one of the reasons why we are in the mess we are in today. Fascinatingly despite the hardships, deaths etc. there guys do not want the current crisis to be resolved too quickly. Many of those involved in violence have never been gainfully employed and would love for the violence to drag on for months and will in fact do anything for this to happen. Others are being fed in refugee camps and for the first time in a long time do not have to worry themselves sick about where their next meal is going to come from. I dare say that some of them are feeding much better now than they have ever fed in their entire lives. Very sad but also very true. This the cheap labor from which the filthy rich in Kenya have been able to make their fortunes from. This group dreams of genuine change in Kenya and a new political dispensation that will give them a fighting chance.
In my next post I make my predictions of what Kenyans can expect.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Strong Case For A New Republic Of Mount Kenya
Proof of America’s role in fanning current chaos and their solid support for Kibaki
Proof that the civil war may have already started as security forces from different tribes defy orders from their superiors
I can’t remember when it first started but recently it has become clear that it is difficult to have a discussion on the situation in Kenya with my Kikuyu beauty without one of us getting emotional and even losing their temper. (For those who are new to this blog, this blogger is the product of a mixed marriage between a Kamba father and a Bukusu mother and has been happily married to a Kikuyu beauty for over 22 years now)
This state of affairs in my house has really surprised me because going into the elections Mrs Kumekucha was a staunch Raila supporter. This is even stranger because she has no relatives in the Rift Valley and has therefore NOT been affected by any of the killings. In fact she was as puzzled as I was at the wild celebrations my in-laws were involved in after Mwai Kibaki was announced winner (despite the tension in the country and the fact that even a young child could see that the elections were stolen).
My 17 year old son has been a great help in sorting out that problem. All he has had to do is ask which side of the divide he should support and that ends the heated argument right on its’ tracks.
But I have been thinking deeply about this shift in emotions and have done my own research and I have realized that Kenya is in much bigger trouble than most people realize.
Ever since this blog was launched in May 2005, our main theme has been the tribal tensions in Kenya which started during the Jomo Kenyatta administration. We have also talked at length about the widening gap between the rich and the poor and how it has always been a time bomb waiting to explode. Few Kenyans have taken us seriously until December 30th.
The strong feeling amongst supporters of President Kibaki is that the crisis in the country has been actively promoted and sponsored by Raila Odinga and ODM and the biggest culprit is the Luo tribe (although in reality the biggest problem is clearly in the Rift Valley). They also feel that the strong anti-Kikuyu sentiments from the rest of the country are borne out of jealousy from the rest of the Kenyan tribes who are mostly lazy and do not possess the same business acumen and enterprising nature of the Kikuyu. They wonder why the Luo cannot wait until 2012, when the Kikuyu waited 10 years as former president Moi rigged 2 presidential elections (1992 and 1997). Members of this community are mostly eager to get back to work and to put the elections behind them but are greatly angered by the calls for mass action which makes this impossible.
The Luo, Kalenjin and most of the tribes in the 6 provinces that Raila Odinga won, feel that they have had more than enough of the Kikuyu who they feel are domineering and completely insensitive to the fact that there are 41 other tribes in the country. The last straw that broke the camel’s back is the disputed presidential elections of last year where to them the Kikuyu now want to rub their dominance in the face of other Kenyans by wanting to rule them by force, even after their candidate President Kibaki clearly lost the presidential election.
What has made this whole issue even more complex is the fact that blood has now been spilt on both sides. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that healing the differences now will take decades at best and there is a good chance that the healing will never take place. That is the reality.
As drastic as secession looks, it is increasingly looking like the only solution that can work long term. Why not give the Kibaki supporters their own country, mainly surrounding the Mount Kenya region (The Republic of Mount Kenya?) and then the rest of the 6 provinces of Kenya (The Republic of Kenya) can also have their own country. The immediate effect of this will be to dramatically cool tensions between the two sides and there are even those analysts who believe that there will be closer co-operation between the communities when they are independent.
There is little doubt that the Kikuyu will continue to dominate business in both republics because of their exceptional enterprising nature, but the difference this time is that the tensions will have been eliminated by the fact that both sides will have their own republics.
The most important result of this bold move will be that it will save thousands of lives and avert the looming civil war that now seems inevitable. Indeed there are those who believe that a low key civil war has already started in Kenya (see this article).
The biggest stumbling block to any solution remains the Americans. Recently there has been a well publicized apparent spat between the Kenyan government and the Americans. No doubt it has fooled many naïve Kenyans (as it was meant to in the wake of increased awareness of what the Americans are doing quietly as part of their foreign policy strategy for the region). Read this article that tables overwhelming proof of American mischief in Kenya and how it has contributed to the current crisis. The Americans don’t give a hoot how much Kenyan blood is spilt and indeed analysts at the American embassy are already keenly aware that the country is on the verge of a very bloody civil conflict. The Kenyan public will make a giant step forward the minute they see the Americans for who they really are.
Email I received yesterday;
Dear Chris,
First of all let me thank you for the good work that you're doing and keeping it real. I have been reading your blog for the past two years and have to admit,it's conscious about the common Kenyan Mwananchi, may God be with you always. I don't have much to say about what's happening in our country now,it's rather evident. I would like to bring something to your attention though. Yester evening on KTN Jioni, there was a very interesting piece of news that showed there's light at the end of the tunnel. There was this couple that just wedded in Mwea, the husband was luo and the wife kikuyu, you should have seen the joy in both their faces, families and friends. Chris, i was moved. This proved wrong very many people who saw it given the history between these two tribes.
One of the root problems to our current situation is tribalism which is deeply rooted amongst most of our folks. Am in such a relationship and it has not been easy. Al in all, we must shun tribalism and see each other as people. I pray for peace and Justice and that people learn from the couple in Mwea. God bless Kenya...
Proof that the civil war may have already started as security forces from different tribes defy orders from their superiors
I can’t remember when it first started but recently it has become clear that it is difficult to have a discussion on the situation in Kenya with my Kikuyu beauty without one of us getting emotional and even losing their temper. (For those who are new to this blog, this blogger is the product of a mixed marriage between a Kamba father and a Bukusu mother and has been happily married to a Kikuyu beauty for over 22 years now)
This state of affairs in my house has really surprised me because going into the elections Mrs Kumekucha was a staunch Raila supporter. This is even stranger because she has no relatives in the Rift Valley and has therefore NOT been affected by any of the killings. In fact she was as puzzled as I was at the wild celebrations my in-laws were involved in after Mwai Kibaki was announced winner (despite the tension in the country and the fact that even a young child could see that the elections were stolen).
My 17 year old son has been a great help in sorting out that problem. All he has had to do is ask which side of the divide he should support and that ends the heated argument right on its’ tracks.
But I have been thinking deeply about this shift in emotions and have done my own research and I have realized that Kenya is in much bigger trouble than most people realize.
Ever since this blog was launched in May 2005, our main theme has been the tribal tensions in Kenya which started during the Jomo Kenyatta administration. We have also talked at length about the widening gap between the rich and the poor and how it has always been a time bomb waiting to explode. Few Kenyans have taken us seriously until December 30th.
The strong feeling amongst supporters of President Kibaki is that the crisis in the country has been actively promoted and sponsored by Raila Odinga and ODM and the biggest culprit is the Luo tribe (although in reality the biggest problem is clearly in the Rift Valley). They also feel that the strong anti-Kikuyu sentiments from the rest of the country are borne out of jealousy from the rest of the Kenyan tribes who are mostly lazy and do not possess the same business acumen and enterprising nature of the Kikuyu. They wonder why the Luo cannot wait until 2012, when the Kikuyu waited 10 years as former president Moi rigged 2 presidential elections (1992 and 1997). Members of this community are mostly eager to get back to work and to put the elections behind them but are greatly angered by the calls for mass action which makes this impossible.
The Luo, Kalenjin and most of the tribes in the 6 provinces that Raila Odinga won, feel that they have had more than enough of the Kikuyu who they feel are domineering and completely insensitive to the fact that there are 41 other tribes in the country. The last straw that broke the camel’s back is the disputed presidential elections of last year where to them the Kikuyu now want to rub their dominance in the face of other Kenyans by wanting to rule them by force, even after their candidate President Kibaki clearly lost the presidential election.
What has made this whole issue even more complex is the fact that blood has now been spilt on both sides. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that healing the differences now will take decades at best and there is a good chance that the healing will never take place. That is the reality.
As drastic as secession looks, it is increasingly looking like the only solution that can work long term. Why not give the Kibaki supporters their own country, mainly surrounding the Mount Kenya region (The Republic of Mount Kenya?) and then the rest of the 6 provinces of Kenya (The Republic of Kenya) can also have their own country. The immediate effect of this will be to dramatically cool tensions between the two sides and there are even those analysts who believe that there will be closer co-operation between the communities when they are independent.
There is little doubt that the Kikuyu will continue to dominate business in both republics because of their exceptional enterprising nature, but the difference this time is that the tensions will have been eliminated by the fact that both sides will have their own republics.
The most important result of this bold move will be that it will save thousands of lives and avert the looming civil war that now seems inevitable. Indeed there are those who believe that a low key civil war has already started in Kenya (see this article).
The biggest stumbling block to any solution remains the Americans. Recently there has been a well publicized apparent spat between the Kenyan government and the Americans. No doubt it has fooled many naïve Kenyans (as it was meant to in the wake of increased awareness of what the Americans are doing quietly as part of their foreign policy strategy for the region). Read this article that tables overwhelming proof of American mischief in Kenya and how it has contributed to the current crisis. The Americans don’t give a hoot how much Kenyan blood is spilt and indeed analysts at the American embassy are already keenly aware that the country is on the verge of a very bloody civil conflict. The Kenyan public will make a giant step forward the minute they see the Americans for who they really are.
Email I received yesterday;
Dear Chris,
First of all let me thank you for the good work that you're doing and keeping it real. I have been reading your blog for the past two years and have to admit,it's conscious about the common Kenyan Mwananchi, may God be with you always. I don't have much to say about what's happening in our country now,it's rather evident. I would like to bring something to your attention though. Yester evening on KTN Jioni, there was a very interesting piece of news that showed there's light at the end of the tunnel. There was this couple that just wedded in Mwea, the husband was luo and the wife kikuyu, you should have seen the joy in both their faces, families and friends. Chris, i was moved. This proved wrong very many people who saw it given the history between these two tribes.
One of the root problems to our current situation is tribalism which is deeply rooted amongst most of our folks. Am in such a relationship and it has not been easy. Al in all, we must shun tribalism and see each other as people. I pray for peace and Justice and that people learn from the couple in Mwea. God bless Kenya...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Kenya Polls Crisis: What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
Kenyans Should Prepare Themselves For A Nightmare Where Their Worst Fears Become Reality
Since Mwai Kibaki and a few handlers fiddled with presidential election votes and stole the election thus plunging the country into chaos, many Kenyans have come out calling for peace.
Even the media has been convinced to censor itself in many instances (to avoid incitement) for the sake of peace. So far nothing has worked and peace in Kenya has continued to be elusive.
Few have really bothered to ask themselves why Kenya has stubbornly refused to return to the peace and tranquility we had all taken for granted, and the media has continued to play games. Let the world know today that when the police chase rioters into the slum area of Kibera and spray bullets into houses with rather “porous” walls, according to the Kenyan media, this is not news. Only the Standard newspaper under considerable pressure occasionally dares to include such occurrences in a major article somewhere in the newspaper.
Naturally everybody is eager that things should go back to normal as soon as possible. After all our children need to go to school and we need to earn a living and therefore anybody who does not promote peace is the enemy (like Kumekucha. Only that most people do not know that Kumekucha wants peace more badly than most, that is why I have been warning about tribal tensions in this blog for over 2 years now).
It is yet to dawn on the minds of most peace-seeking Kenyans that there is no way that peace will come unless we address the root cause of the problem. I challenge you to tell me how else peace can come. I hear somebody saying; by telling the Luos and Kelenjins to shut up. (That is the “ingenious suggestion” of some commentators in this blog).
It is also yet to dawn on most Kenyans that the biggest hindrance to the restoration of peace are not violent Luos or angry Kalenjins. It is not the mass action called for by Raila Odinga and his gang.
It is the gentleman whom most of you saw seated taking notes as he listened to a carefully selected delegation of private sector personalities (most of whom helped fund his campaign) the pother day in State House. That man calls himself the president of the republic of Kenya. If this was not such serious business, that is laughable. This is the same man whose wife slapped a civil servant in public in front of the poor man’s family. Rumours have persisted that the same woman (who obviously needs medical help) slapped Gitobu Imanyara in State House who is said to have responded with a punch that floored the first lady. Security personnel then descended on Imanyara and caused him serious harm, so the rumours say. The most serious issue here is not whether those persistent rumours are true or not. It is the fact that they can be linked to the so-called president of the republic of Kenya here.
This is the same man who during a campaign meeting last year exchanged words with a member of the public over their rowdy behaviour. I [petrsonally thought that the nexyt thing he was gpoing to do was to personally remove the man from the meeting. PLEASE!!!
This is the one man in Kenya and the entire world who has all the powers to end the crisis and deaths right away. The truth is that at this hour when Kenya needs leadership most, this man does not have the courage to rise to the occasion. But olet me ask a question even after saying all this; Who started the fire in the first place?
Here are 3 options this man has at his disposal to return the situation in Kenya to normal.
1) Resign like a gentleman on the grounds that people doubt his win and spearhead the formation of an interim government whose sole purpose will be to prepare the country for a fresh general elections. I guarantee you this will put an immediate stop to the violence and life will go back to normal for Kenyans.
2) To humble himself for the sake of Kenya the country (he loves?) and invite the opposition for serious negotiations, preferably at a neutral place. This business of inviting them at State House is playing power games when Kenyans are dying. He will not need to step down from the precious presidency for this one and if there is sincerity on his side he will be surprised at the kind of concessions he can get from the folks he robbed in broad daylight last December.
3) Alternatively, since the country is already a police state, to stop pretending that it is NOT and to arrest all opposition politicians declare emergency law and use the military to cow everybody back into line. And while he is at it declare Kenya an African socialist country, dictatorship and a monarchy at that and stop this pretence of trying to fool the world that we had presidential elections in Kenya last December. This can also work like a dream. You will be amazed at what can happen when somebody comes out with the truth. It is true that the truth always sets even evil politicians and entire countries free. This oretence and hypocracy is killing us!!!
Now instead of exercising his powers (albeit obtained dishonestly) the occupant of State House just sits there as his wife slaps people around and his policemen shoot innocent people dead in cold blood (after which the police spokesman says that TV news footage is the work of some creative mind on a computer). Meanwhile he is busy using the one single weapon that has mostly worked for politicians, appealing to the tribal sentiments of his tribes-mates, which by the way is incitement and is one of the major causes of the violence in Kenya. The fascinating thing is that he is dealing with intelligent people and some of his tribes-mates have already seen him for what he is and have come out and spoken boldly. (Thank you Maina Kiai.) There are of course many others, some of whom saw him for what he really is very early on like John Githongo. Githongo fled the country and warned us all, only that we did not take him seriously. Now we have only ourselves to blame because we received enough warnings and in good time too. Or did we think that Githongo wanted an excuse to get residency in the UK?
So while the “sensible” Kenyans continue to appeal for peace and calm, both sides of the divide have a number of nasty surprises up their sleeves for us all.
What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
1) Nobody seems to have noticed that Mwai Kibaki is NOT interested in any negotiations. He is the president and if you don’t want to wait until 2012, meza wembe (swallow a razor blade). He has the total support of the Americans. Mta-do?. This evil super power which most Kenyans believe is angelic and can do no wrong has been making very hypocritical statements in public and doing the very opposite in secret. I put it to you that the illegitimate government of Mwai Kibaki would not last one day without the support of Uncle Sam.
But alas, Uncle Sam does not really care how many Kenyan “monkeys” die as long as their precious plans for East Africa remain in place, especially their policy on dealing with terrorists. The Americans WILL NEVER allow Raila Odinga to be president of Kenya simply because he has said openly that he would fight for justice. The Americans are NOT interested in justice, they are interested in RESULTS and it does not really matter what bloodbath happens in Kenya as long as Americans are safe. What makes matters worse is that George W. Bush is on his last term and so “political considerations” are really not that critical.
Mwai Kibai knows this and as a result will not budge from State House, no matter how many Kenyans die. As long as his immediate family is safe, (including his serial-slapper wife) Kibaki would care less of 1 million people die. The sad thing here is that Raila Odinga and company think that Kibaki will eventually be moved by the deaths of Kenyans. So guess what is inevitably going to happen?
2) Kibaki insiders have been arguing back and forth for weeks now over the pros and cons of arresting the Pentagon top brass and charging them in court. Had they taken this decision early, it may have worked, but now as they dither; it is no longer a viable option. But guess what? The fact that they are still discussing it means that there is a huge possibility that they will carry it out. I leave it to you to imagine what will happen if Raila Odinga and William Ruto are arrested. I have only two words to describe the consequences. SHUT DOWN.
3) The game Mwai Kibaki is playing now is what I call the “vulture game”. The vulture circles at a distance as an able bodied man struggles across the desert without food or water. The Vulture is a very patient bird. It will never attack. It just waits patiently circling all the time to ensure that no other vulture lays claim to it’s prey. When the man finally collapses in exhaustion, the vulture will still not move. It will wait for death. Always circling lower and lower until finally it lands on its’ prey.
The powers of the office of president of Kenya are such that virtually all the holders of the office have often confused themselves for the Almighty himself. With those powers and in the comfort of State House Mwai Kibaki can afford to wait until the peasants have tired of killing each other. Until the so-called brave Kenyans are starving and have to get back to work to feed their families.
So what we should expect of Kenya is another Zimbabwe. Hyper inflation where you will need a car-boot-full of Kenya shillings to buy a few drinks at your local. Mwai Kibaki and his cronies do not believe it will reach there. So far they have successfully propped up the Kenya shilling. In fact the shilling appreciated sharply one day recently when there was terrible violence, tension and uncertainty in the country, some investors Kenya has!
The shilling remains bravely strong above the psychological Kshs 70 mark. Kumekucha’s humble opinion is that the Kenya shilling will hold out for some time, maybe even a month, but when it starts falling, it will fall like a heavy stone.
4) If you are not yet scared then what the ODM side has in store for Kenyans should freak you out. Remember that these guys worked hard and won the general elections, which was then “stolen” from them in broad daylight right in front of the eyes of the world. In case you are not a Kenyan and have no idea what Kenyans do to thieves then let me tell you they execute mob justice and kick, stone and club thieves to death. They love to do that and think nothing of the bloody mess. ODM can not dare do this to the rather powerful thief this time, but I am trying to illustrate the anger they feel.
Especially one man called Raila Amollo Odinga. Let me tell you that the man has not even started doing what he knows how to do so well. Many readers of this blog have laughed off the economic boycott plan. Soon the tears in their eyes will not be from laughter but from crying. Watch what happens in the next few days.
This is what I call holding a man by his balls (pardon my expression). What has driven Kenyan politics since 1963 has been one thing and one thing alone. MONEY. Touch or threaten a politician’s money and you have him by the balls. What does a man do when somebody holds him there, they cry for mercy and submit or they fight back with “murder” at the top of their mind. Watch what happens in the next few weeks as the economic boycott is implemented fully.
Remember that there is a huge middle class in Kenya that voted ODM. In fact just half of it is capable of shutting down a number of corporates in just a few days. The really scary thing is how far these ODM guys will go in economic boycotts and sabotage.
I have been wrong before and I have also been right before, this time I pray that I am wrong but I fear that I am too close to what will actually unfold before our very eyes.
Believe me when I say that only divine intervention can save Kenya now.
Oh, there is one thing Kenyans can do, but it is a virtual impossibility. Our Kikuyu brothers and sisters can all rise up and say “NO” to the dictatorship of Mwai Kibaki. To be fair quite a number of them have already done this, but not nearly enough to make an impact.
Since Mwai Kibaki and a few handlers fiddled with presidential election votes and stole the election thus plunging the country into chaos, many Kenyans have come out calling for peace.
Even the media has been convinced to censor itself in many instances (to avoid incitement) for the sake of peace. So far nothing has worked and peace in Kenya has continued to be elusive.
Few have really bothered to ask themselves why Kenya has stubbornly refused to return to the peace and tranquility we had all taken for granted, and the media has continued to play games. Let the world know today that when the police chase rioters into the slum area of Kibera and spray bullets into houses with rather “porous” walls, according to the Kenyan media, this is not news. Only the Standard newspaper under considerable pressure occasionally dares to include such occurrences in a major article somewhere in the newspaper.
Naturally everybody is eager that things should go back to normal as soon as possible. After all our children need to go to school and we need to earn a living and therefore anybody who does not promote peace is the enemy (like Kumekucha. Only that most people do not know that Kumekucha wants peace more badly than most, that is why I have been warning about tribal tensions in this blog for over 2 years now).
It is yet to dawn on the minds of most peace-seeking Kenyans that there is no way that peace will come unless we address the root cause of the problem. I challenge you to tell me how else peace can come. I hear somebody saying; by telling the Luos and Kelenjins to shut up. (That is the “ingenious suggestion” of some commentators in this blog).
It is also yet to dawn on most Kenyans that the biggest hindrance to the restoration of peace are not violent Luos or angry Kalenjins. It is not the mass action called for by Raila Odinga and his gang.
It is the gentleman whom most of you saw seated taking notes as he listened to a carefully selected delegation of private sector personalities (most of whom helped fund his campaign) the pother day in State House. That man calls himself the president of the republic of Kenya. If this was not such serious business, that is laughable. This is the same man whose wife slapped a civil servant in public in front of the poor man’s family. Rumours have persisted that the same woman (who obviously needs medical help) slapped Gitobu Imanyara in State House who is said to have responded with a punch that floored the first lady. Security personnel then descended on Imanyara and caused him serious harm, so the rumours say. The most serious issue here is not whether those persistent rumours are true or not. It is the fact that they can be linked to the so-called president of the republic of Kenya here.
This is the same man who during a campaign meeting last year exchanged words with a member of the public over their rowdy behaviour. I [petrsonally thought that the nexyt thing he was gpoing to do was to personally remove the man from the meeting. PLEASE!!!
This is the one man in Kenya and the entire world who has all the powers to end the crisis and deaths right away. The truth is that at this hour when Kenya needs leadership most, this man does not have the courage to rise to the occasion. But olet me ask a question even after saying all this; Who started the fire in the first place?
Here are 3 options this man has at his disposal to return the situation in Kenya to normal.
1) Resign like a gentleman on the grounds that people doubt his win and spearhead the formation of an interim government whose sole purpose will be to prepare the country for a fresh general elections. I guarantee you this will put an immediate stop to the violence and life will go back to normal for Kenyans.
2) To humble himself for the sake of Kenya the country (he loves?) and invite the opposition for serious negotiations, preferably at a neutral place. This business of inviting them at State House is playing power games when Kenyans are dying. He will not need to step down from the precious presidency for this one and if there is sincerity on his side he will be surprised at the kind of concessions he can get from the folks he robbed in broad daylight last December.
3) Alternatively, since the country is already a police state, to stop pretending that it is NOT and to arrest all opposition politicians declare emergency law and use the military to cow everybody back into line. And while he is at it declare Kenya an African socialist country, dictatorship and a monarchy at that and stop this pretence of trying to fool the world that we had presidential elections in Kenya last December. This can also work like a dream. You will be amazed at what can happen when somebody comes out with the truth. It is true that the truth always sets even evil politicians and entire countries free. This oretence and hypocracy is killing us!!!
Now instead of exercising his powers (albeit obtained dishonestly) the occupant of State House just sits there as his wife slaps people around and his policemen shoot innocent people dead in cold blood (after which the police spokesman says that TV news footage is the work of some creative mind on a computer). Meanwhile he is busy using the one single weapon that has mostly worked for politicians, appealing to the tribal sentiments of his tribes-mates, which by the way is incitement and is one of the major causes of the violence in Kenya. The fascinating thing is that he is dealing with intelligent people and some of his tribes-mates have already seen him for what he is and have come out and spoken boldly. (Thank you Maina Kiai.) There are of course many others, some of whom saw him for what he really is very early on like John Githongo. Githongo fled the country and warned us all, only that we did not take him seriously. Now we have only ourselves to blame because we received enough warnings and in good time too. Or did we think that Githongo wanted an excuse to get residency in the UK?
So while the “sensible” Kenyans continue to appeal for peace and calm, both sides of the divide have a number of nasty surprises up their sleeves for us all.
What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
1) Nobody seems to have noticed that Mwai Kibaki is NOT interested in any negotiations. He is the president and if you don’t want to wait until 2012, meza wembe (swallow a razor blade). He has the total support of the Americans. Mta-do?. This evil super power which most Kenyans believe is angelic and can do no wrong has been making very hypocritical statements in public and doing the very opposite in secret. I put it to you that the illegitimate government of Mwai Kibaki would not last one day without the support of Uncle Sam.
But alas, Uncle Sam does not really care how many Kenyan “monkeys” die as long as their precious plans for East Africa remain in place, especially their policy on dealing with terrorists. The Americans WILL NEVER allow Raila Odinga to be president of Kenya simply because he has said openly that he would fight for justice. The Americans are NOT interested in justice, they are interested in RESULTS and it does not really matter what bloodbath happens in Kenya as long as Americans are safe. What makes matters worse is that George W. Bush is on his last term and so “political considerations” are really not that critical.
Mwai Kibai knows this and as a result will not budge from State House, no matter how many Kenyans die. As long as his immediate family is safe, (including his serial-slapper wife) Kibaki would care less of 1 million people die. The sad thing here is that Raila Odinga and company think that Kibaki will eventually be moved by the deaths of Kenyans. So guess what is inevitably going to happen?
2) Kibaki insiders have been arguing back and forth for weeks now over the pros and cons of arresting the Pentagon top brass and charging them in court. Had they taken this decision early, it may have worked, but now as they dither; it is no longer a viable option. But guess what? The fact that they are still discussing it means that there is a huge possibility that they will carry it out. I leave it to you to imagine what will happen if Raila Odinga and William Ruto are arrested. I have only two words to describe the consequences. SHUT DOWN.
3) The game Mwai Kibaki is playing now is what I call the “vulture game”. The vulture circles at a distance as an able bodied man struggles across the desert without food or water. The Vulture is a very patient bird. It will never attack. It just waits patiently circling all the time to ensure that no other vulture lays claim to it’s prey. When the man finally collapses in exhaustion, the vulture will still not move. It will wait for death. Always circling lower and lower until finally it lands on its’ prey.
The powers of the office of president of Kenya are such that virtually all the holders of the office have often confused themselves for the Almighty himself. With those powers and in the comfort of State House Mwai Kibaki can afford to wait until the peasants have tired of killing each other. Until the so-called brave Kenyans are starving and have to get back to work to feed their families.
So what we should expect of Kenya is another Zimbabwe. Hyper inflation where you will need a car-boot-full of Kenya shillings to buy a few drinks at your local. Mwai Kibaki and his cronies do not believe it will reach there. So far they have successfully propped up the Kenya shilling. In fact the shilling appreciated sharply one day recently when there was terrible violence, tension and uncertainty in the country, some investors Kenya has!
The shilling remains bravely strong above the psychological Kshs 70 mark. Kumekucha’s humble opinion is that the Kenya shilling will hold out for some time, maybe even a month, but when it starts falling, it will fall like a heavy stone.
4) If you are not yet scared then what the ODM side has in store for Kenyans should freak you out. Remember that these guys worked hard and won the general elections, which was then “stolen” from them in broad daylight right in front of the eyes of the world. In case you are not a Kenyan and have no idea what Kenyans do to thieves then let me tell you they execute mob justice and kick, stone and club thieves to death. They love to do that and think nothing of the bloody mess. ODM can not dare do this to the rather powerful thief this time, but I am trying to illustrate the anger they feel.
Especially one man called Raila Amollo Odinga. Let me tell you that the man has not even started doing what he knows how to do so well. Many readers of this blog have laughed off the economic boycott plan. Soon the tears in their eyes will not be from laughter but from crying. Watch what happens in the next few days.
This is what I call holding a man by his balls (pardon my expression). What has driven Kenyan politics since 1963 has been one thing and one thing alone. MONEY. Touch or threaten a politician’s money and you have him by the balls. What does a man do when somebody holds him there, they cry for mercy and submit or they fight back with “murder” at the top of their mind. Watch what happens in the next few weeks as the economic boycott is implemented fully.
Remember that there is a huge middle class in Kenya that voted ODM. In fact just half of it is capable of shutting down a number of corporates in just a few days. The really scary thing is how far these ODM guys will go in economic boycotts and sabotage.
I have been wrong before and I have also been right before, this time I pray that I am wrong but I fear that I am too close to what will actually unfold before our very eyes.
Believe me when I say that only divine intervention can save Kenya now.
Oh, there is one thing Kenyans can do, but it is a virtual impossibility. Our Kikuyu brothers and sisters can all rise up and say “NO” to the dictatorship of Mwai Kibaki. To be fair quite a number of them have already done this, but not nearly enough to make an impact.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
How Long Can Mwai Kibaki Survive?
The angry reaction from a section of suspect readers of this blog illustrates the current mood in State House perfectly.
Why do I call the readers of a blog suspect? For the simple reason that their behaviour is bizarre to say the least. Their comments clearly suggest that they abhor and strongly disagree with the content in this blog. Ordinarily when you do not like something that you see on the web, you move on. Time is precious. And yet this group of readers have stayed on, saying everything they know how to discredit every story published here. They have refused to leave. Make your own conclusions as to who they really are and what their real objective is.
When I re-introduced comment moderation yesterday, this group was extremely angry. Threats poured in as I moderated and I deleted most of them. It was easy to sense the frustration at the fact that things did not go their way. The carefully and well thought out damage they had planned for the most popular Kenyan blog had been thwarted.
The mood is the same inside Mwai Kibaki’s State house as handlers scramble to find a way to keep the Kibaki administration going for another couple of months. Their plan to enforce the daylight vote theft has met with much stronger resistance than they had imagined. Despite the largest deployment of security forces countrywide in the history of the country, the situation is much worse than it was on 30th December, the ill-fated day when a few individuals inside State House decided to bite the bullet and execute a broad day light robbery of the presidential elections.
Still Kibaki hopes against all hope that the whole crisis will somehow blow over and Kenyans and the international community will come to that place where they accept him as their president for the next 5 years. But the Kibaki think tank is up against enormous odds and it is probably dawning on them just how expensive stealing an election can be.
On the political front there is a problem that scares Mwai Kibaki, the economics professor, more than anything else. In fact much more than Raila Odinga and 6 months of mass action. That thing is members of the Kikuyu tribe driven out of their land. Many of our readers here have no interest of history but the colonial government did many things to Africans which they got away with. Things went badly wrong for them when they drove Kikuyus out of their land. You just don’t do that.
This time around the Kikuyu have been driven from their land by members of the Kalenjin tribe. Information reaching this blogger is to the effect that already the reverberations of this land issue are starting to be felt amongst Members of parliament from Kikuyu areas. Chances are high that they will soon start to break ranks with the rest of the community. Kenyans are about to find out just how close and devoted to the land those from the house of Mumbi are. The minute the Kikuyu unity fails, the Kibaki administration will hardly survive a few weeks.
But even if the Kikuyu unity somehow holds, the entire world community has rejected the presidential results. In other words nobody who matters in the world believes that Mwai Kibaki won the presidential vote. What everybody does not seem to agree on is the way forward from this truth. Some say the country is not ready for a re-run. Others say that nothing else can solve this crisis short of another presidential election. Despite the tensions I tend to believe that only this second alternative will work to get the nation out of its’ current crisis.
Meanwhile Raila Odinga and ODM have announced that they have now halted their mass action protest and will now seek other means. Apparently those other means have been leaked out and now most people know that it is going to be some form of economic boycott where ODM will ask its’ supporters to boycott certain products and companies who support the illegal government of Mwai Kibaki. Will this new strategy work? Actually everything depends on execution, but if this plan is carried out well, then it could end up being much more effective than the street protests.
But even as the government has to deal with all these immediate emergencies there is parliament looming ever closer and there is no guarantee that the huge “cash incentives” currently being thrown around will work as was proved by the election of the speaker which the government side lost narrowly despite heavy investment.
Incidentally parliament requires a simple majority to pass a vote of no confidence against the Kibaki government and send the country back to the polls`. Some analysts think that this is unlikely because the sitting MPs would not like to face another expensive campaign where they are not sure of winning. This time, this is not quite true because every member who votes for such a motion will be a hero of the people and will have no problem retaining their seats in the ODM strongholds in such a snap election.
The truth of the matter is that President Kibaki and PNU have lost quite a bit of support after the events of December 30th and ODM and Raila have just been gaining support by the day.
Now concerning money, what many analysts have failed to realize is the huge expenditure that has been used to retain law and order since December 30th. And yet the traditional cash cow of tourism is no more with tourist hotels in Mombasa virtually empty. Tax collection has been at a very low ebb because there are numerous businesses which have not earned any income since before the ill-fated elections. The expenses related to maintaining the peace remain very high.
Experts believe that the government will soon launch instruments of borrowing from the public to get the cash to keep the country going. But one wonders how investors will view a government T-Bill issue in Kenya shillings when it looks like Kenya may end up being another Zimbabwe with hyper inflation in just a few months.
Don’t even mention the expensive exercise of propping up the Kenya shilling that the Central Bank has been busy with in recent times. Predictably when they run out of their forex reserves, the Kenya shilling could well fall like a stone.
So as the pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether this government will make it to 2012, it is simply this; how much longer can Mwai Kibaki survive?
Why do I call the readers of a blog suspect? For the simple reason that their behaviour is bizarre to say the least. Their comments clearly suggest that they abhor and strongly disagree with the content in this blog. Ordinarily when you do not like something that you see on the web, you move on. Time is precious. And yet this group of readers have stayed on, saying everything they know how to discredit every story published here. They have refused to leave. Make your own conclusions as to who they really are and what their real objective is.
When I re-introduced comment moderation yesterday, this group was extremely angry. Threats poured in as I moderated and I deleted most of them. It was easy to sense the frustration at the fact that things did not go their way. The carefully and well thought out damage they had planned for the most popular Kenyan blog had been thwarted.
The mood is the same inside Mwai Kibaki’s State house as handlers scramble to find a way to keep the Kibaki administration going for another couple of months. Their plan to enforce the daylight vote theft has met with much stronger resistance than they had imagined. Despite the largest deployment of security forces countrywide in the history of the country, the situation is much worse than it was on 30th December, the ill-fated day when a few individuals inside State House decided to bite the bullet and execute a broad day light robbery of the presidential elections.
Still Kibaki hopes against all hope that the whole crisis will somehow blow over and Kenyans and the international community will come to that place where they accept him as their president for the next 5 years. But the Kibaki think tank is up against enormous odds and it is probably dawning on them just how expensive stealing an election can be.
On the political front there is a problem that scares Mwai Kibaki, the economics professor, more than anything else. In fact much more than Raila Odinga and 6 months of mass action. That thing is members of the Kikuyu tribe driven out of their land. Many of our readers here have no interest of history but the colonial government did many things to Africans which they got away with. Things went badly wrong for them when they drove Kikuyus out of their land. You just don’t do that.
This time around the Kikuyu have been driven from their land by members of the Kalenjin tribe. Information reaching this blogger is to the effect that already the reverberations of this land issue are starting to be felt amongst Members of parliament from Kikuyu areas. Chances are high that they will soon start to break ranks with the rest of the community. Kenyans are about to find out just how close and devoted to the land those from the house of Mumbi are. The minute the Kikuyu unity fails, the Kibaki administration will hardly survive a few weeks.
But even if the Kikuyu unity somehow holds, the entire world community has rejected the presidential results. In other words nobody who matters in the world believes that Mwai Kibaki won the presidential vote. What everybody does not seem to agree on is the way forward from this truth. Some say the country is not ready for a re-run. Others say that nothing else can solve this crisis short of another presidential election. Despite the tensions I tend to believe that only this second alternative will work to get the nation out of its’ current crisis.
Meanwhile Raila Odinga and ODM have announced that they have now halted their mass action protest and will now seek other means. Apparently those other means have been leaked out and now most people know that it is going to be some form of economic boycott where ODM will ask its’ supporters to boycott certain products and companies who support the illegal government of Mwai Kibaki. Will this new strategy work? Actually everything depends on execution, but if this plan is carried out well, then it could end up being much more effective than the street protests.
But even as the government has to deal with all these immediate emergencies there is parliament looming ever closer and there is no guarantee that the huge “cash incentives” currently being thrown around will work as was proved by the election of the speaker which the government side lost narrowly despite heavy investment.
Incidentally parliament requires a simple majority to pass a vote of no confidence against the Kibaki government and send the country back to the polls`. Some analysts think that this is unlikely because the sitting MPs would not like to face another expensive campaign where they are not sure of winning. This time, this is not quite true because every member who votes for such a motion will be a hero of the people and will have no problem retaining their seats in the ODM strongholds in such a snap election.
The truth of the matter is that President Kibaki and PNU have lost quite a bit of support after the events of December 30th and ODM and Raila have just been gaining support by the day.
Now concerning money, what many analysts have failed to realize is the huge expenditure that has been used to retain law and order since December 30th. And yet the traditional cash cow of tourism is no more with tourist hotels in Mombasa virtually empty. Tax collection has been at a very low ebb because there are numerous businesses which have not earned any income since before the ill-fated elections. The expenses related to maintaining the peace remain very high.
Experts believe that the government will soon launch instruments of borrowing from the public to get the cash to keep the country going. But one wonders how investors will view a government T-Bill issue in Kenya shillings when it looks like Kenya may end up being another Zimbabwe with hyper inflation in just a few months.
Don’t even mention the expensive exercise of propping up the Kenya shilling that the Central Bank has been busy with in recent times. Predictably when they run out of their forex reserves, the Kenya shilling could well fall like a stone.
So as the pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether this government will make it to 2012, it is simply this; how much longer can Mwai Kibaki survive?
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Money Tips For Blog Readers
Why would one seek a reliable company where they can purchase silver, gold or other precious metals and coins or bullion? Why would this task be so important?
Firstly there are not many reliable and experienced companies that specialize in investment of precious metals. And yet this is one investment vehicle that is critical for anybody who wants to ensure that the vale of their assets are maintained and not eroded.
This is precisely why knowing a company like Monex Deposit Company (MDC) is so useful. For those who are not aware, Monex has been America’s gold silver and precious metals investments leader for over 30 years now.
Firstly there are not many reliable and experienced companies that specialize in investment of precious metals. And yet this is one investment vehicle that is critical for anybody who wants to ensure that the vale of their assets are maintained and not eroded.
This is precisely why knowing a company like Monex Deposit Company (MDC) is so useful. For those who are not aware, Monex has been America’s gold silver and precious metals investments leader for over 30 years now.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
How I Will Vote And Why
Plus Bizarre Incident of APs Found With Marked Kibaki Ballot Papers
In a few hours time, Kenyans go to the polls in what I have called the mother of all general elections.
If I get to the polling booth here’s what I will do and why.
My choice for councilor and MP will not make much sense to most of you but I can assure you that neither will go to ODM or PNU.
I have thought long and hard about my presidential vote. Those who have been here for a long time know that my preferred presidential candidate is not running. If John Githngo had run I woild have trooped over to the polling station where I am registered and I would have cast my vote for him even if I was sure I was the only Kenyan voting for him. You see contrary to what most Kenyans think a vote is NEVER lost or wasted. This thing is about your conscience. The big question you should always ask yourself is if you will live with our choice for the next 5 years.
Luckily my conscience still works (You can easily numb this critical faculty you know).
Despite the fact that I love my in-laws very much and despite the fact that I always seem to have a crash on Kikuyu ladies (like Mrs Kumekucha—even after all those years, PKW—many months ago, my good friend Sayra—the latest flame whom I feel so close to, my younger brother’s wife who is also Kikuyu accused me a few minutes ago of wanting to seat next to her—she was joking of course, etc.) I am not voting PNU. I woud never be able to live with myself if I did because a vote for PNU is a vote for Moi and Anglo Leasing and most of all it would be vote against John Githongo, a man who has risked his life and done Kenya proud.
Stevo comes from my tribe. But my vote for Ngilu in 1997 was the last time I will ever vote for tribal reasons. A man who hides in the toilet to avoid an important vote in parliament is not my idea of the courageous president we need to carry Kenya forward.
Personally I don’t like Raila and I have never liked him. I don’t want to go into details because there are a lot of things I know about his true character (e.g. the Shem Ochudho-Kenya-Pipeline-appointment saga). But like an unmarried woman running into her late 40s and with no other suitor in site except this man whose breath smells but has the money and loves me enough, I will vote Raila with all my heart and with a clean conscience. Out of all the terrible choices, he is clearly the best suited to take Kenya to the next level. In fact my prayer is that ODM fulfill only one election pledge and Kenya will be well on its’ way to being a super power in Africa. I am of course referring to the devolution agenda as per the Bomas draft.
Besides, if Raila turns out to be a disappointment, we will vote him out in 2012 (the year I expect that we will have a Kumekucha candidate for president.). Wembe ni ule ule.
Another reason why I am voting the previously “unelectable” presidential candidate is to help get it into the heads of Kenyans that anybody can be president. And besides it is not a bad strategy to change presidents every 5 years until we get the right candidate.
P.S. This business of Administration policemen being found with marked ballot papers in favor of the incumbent is really bizzare. It reminds me of the prophecy by somebody I don’t know to the effect that a lot will be exposed in these 2007 elections and also that one of the presidential candidates secretly plans to “spill blood” but will fail miserably.
This is high drama, especially the part where security personnel chased the KTN journalists with the AP rigging story and then when they lost them, they laid an ambush at I&M Building. Luckily the brave journalists gained access into the building through a back entrance and managed to file their story which was aired on KTN last night. I spoke to my Dad briefly about the incident and he seems to believe that this is ODM propaganda (he is voting Kibaki and nothing will change him). But we’re still great friends.
In a few hours time, Kenyans go to the polls in what I have called the mother of all general elections.
If I get to the polling booth here’s what I will do and why.
My choice for councilor and MP will not make much sense to most of you but I can assure you that neither will go to ODM or PNU.
I have thought long and hard about my presidential vote. Those who have been here for a long time know that my preferred presidential candidate is not running. If John Githngo had run I woild have trooped over to the polling station where I am registered and I would have cast my vote for him even if I was sure I was the only Kenyan voting for him. You see contrary to what most Kenyans think a vote is NEVER lost or wasted. This thing is about your conscience. The big question you should always ask yourself is if you will live with our choice for the next 5 years.
Luckily my conscience still works (You can easily numb this critical faculty you know).
Despite the fact that I love my in-laws very much and despite the fact that I always seem to have a crash on Kikuyu ladies (like Mrs Kumekucha—even after all those years, PKW—many months ago, my good friend Sayra—the latest flame whom I feel so close to, my younger brother’s wife who is also Kikuyu accused me a few minutes ago of wanting to seat next to her—she was joking of course, etc.) I am not voting PNU. I woud never be able to live with myself if I did because a vote for PNU is a vote for Moi and Anglo Leasing and most of all it would be vote against John Githongo, a man who has risked his life and done Kenya proud.
Stevo comes from my tribe. But my vote for Ngilu in 1997 was the last time I will ever vote for tribal reasons. A man who hides in the toilet to avoid an important vote in parliament is not my idea of the courageous president we need to carry Kenya forward.
Personally I don’t like Raila and I have never liked him. I don’t want to go into details because there are a lot of things I know about his true character (e.g. the Shem Ochudho-Kenya-Pipeline-appointment saga). But like an unmarried woman running into her late 40s and with no other suitor in site except this man whose breath smells but has the money and loves me enough, I will vote Raila with all my heart and with a clean conscience. Out of all the terrible choices, he is clearly the best suited to take Kenya to the next level. In fact my prayer is that ODM fulfill only one election pledge and Kenya will be well on its’ way to being a super power in Africa. I am of course referring to the devolution agenda as per the Bomas draft.
Besides, if Raila turns out to be a disappointment, we will vote him out in 2012 (the year I expect that we will have a Kumekucha candidate for president.). Wembe ni ule ule.
Another reason why I am voting the previously “unelectable” presidential candidate is to help get it into the heads of Kenyans that anybody can be president. And besides it is not a bad strategy to change presidents every 5 years until we get the right candidate.
P.S. This business of Administration policemen being found with marked ballot papers in favor of the incumbent is really bizzare. It reminds me of the prophecy by somebody I don’t know to the effect that a lot will be exposed in these 2007 elections and also that one of the presidential candidates secretly plans to “spill blood” but will fail miserably.
This is high drama, especially the part where security personnel chased the KTN journalists with the AP rigging story and then when they lost them, they laid an ambush at I&M Building. Luckily the brave journalists gained access into the building through a back entrance and managed to file their story which was aired on KTN last night. I spoke to my Dad briefly about the incident and he seems to believe that this is ODM propaganda (he is voting Kibaki and nothing will change him). But we’re still great friends.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Elections 2007: What Consequences?
As we head to the elections after Boxing day, I find that I have less and less to say to you my dear readers and more worrying to do.
If Raila wins, what will the consequences be? Will the Kibaki administration hand over power peacefully? Will they accept defeat?
If Kibaki wins what will happen to Kenya? Will Kenyans in 6 provinces accept the results? Will the multitudes of Kenyans desperate for change—any change accept such a result?
How long will it take to heal the wounds that started with the terribly expensive referendum of 2005 which cost Kenyans much more than just a lot of money?
What if the elections produce a constitutional crisis that the current constitution can never handle?
And most of all my eyes are firmly focused on the Langata constituency where nobody quite knows what is going to happen.
Enough has been said and now is the time to sit back and see what happens. Now is the time to let the people of Kenya speak. My prayer is that they will speak so loudly and clearly that there will be no constitutional crisis. My prayer is that precious lives will be spared. The truth is that no politician is worth dieing for let alone our current crop of selfish, self-seeking ….. (I restrain myself from using abusive language).
The truth is that even as Kenyans shout themselves hoarse in support of their preferred candidate, this is a very dangerous and unpredictable time for Kenya.
I take this opportunity to wish you all my dear friends, a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year, 2008. Thank you for your support and most of all thank you for your patience as I have rumbled on and on throughout the year coming up with views that have been very different from the ones you hold dear. Nothing personal though, I just love my country too much and I am sure the same is true with you and that is why you have chosen to spend valuable time here with all the characters that have made “kumekucha” their home.
Please don’t run away in shame if the election results don’r go the way you want. Let’s keep talking here and learning from each other so that we quickly get to understand why the election results go they way they will.
Let’s continue to love our country, irrespective of our poliyical leanings. After all Kenya is bigger than out preferred candidate, bigger than our issues and feelings.
God bless Kenya. God bless us all.
If Raila wins, what will the consequences be? Will the Kibaki administration hand over power peacefully? Will they accept defeat?
If Kibaki wins what will happen to Kenya? Will Kenyans in 6 provinces accept the results? Will the multitudes of Kenyans desperate for change—any change accept such a result?
How long will it take to heal the wounds that started with the terribly expensive referendum of 2005 which cost Kenyans much more than just a lot of money?
What if the elections produce a constitutional crisis that the current constitution can never handle?
And most of all my eyes are firmly focused on the Langata constituency where nobody quite knows what is going to happen.
Enough has been said and now is the time to sit back and see what happens. Now is the time to let the people of Kenya speak. My prayer is that they will speak so loudly and clearly that there will be no constitutional crisis. My prayer is that precious lives will be spared. The truth is that no politician is worth dieing for let alone our current crop of selfish, self-seeking ….. (I restrain myself from using abusive language).
The truth is that even as Kenyans shout themselves hoarse in support of their preferred candidate, this is a very dangerous and unpredictable time for Kenya.
I take this opportunity to wish you all my dear friends, a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year, 2008. Thank you for your support and most of all thank you for your patience as I have rumbled on and on throughout the year coming up with views that have been very different from the ones you hold dear. Nothing personal though, I just love my country too much and I am sure the same is true with you and that is why you have chosen to spend valuable time here with all the characters that have made “kumekucha” their home.
Please don’t run away in shame if the election results don’r go the way you want. Let’s keep talking here and learning from each other so that we quickly get to understand why the election results go they way they will.
Let’s continue to love our country, irrespective of our poliyical leanings. After all Kenya is bigger than out preferred candidate, bigger than our issues and feelings.
God bless Kenya. God bless us all.
Vindication Is At Hand
Guest post by Sam Okello
Fellow Kenyans,
In just three days, the journey the Hon. Raila Amollo Odinga started in the eighties will enter a new phase. With his election to the presidency, a matter approved from on high, the nation will embark on the final leg of a chapter that should have closed in the sixties, immediately after independence, but never did. I'm talking about national reconciliation and the creation of a nation that works for everyone.
What we've witnessed in the years since President Jomo Kenyatta took oath to lead the nation to prosperity has been the unequal distribution of national resources and the selective development of pockets of the nation. The result is that vast areas of Kenya remain sinfully underdeveloped, while others wallow in wealth and boast some of the richest Kenyans.
But what is more disturbing is the increasing tribalization of the nation. The shameless manner in which President Kibaki constituted his Cabinet and other key appointments is a case in point. He was obviously acting in the same way Presidents Kenyatta and Moi acted when it was their turn. The sad thing is, with President Kibaki, a man Kenyans voted for in droves, suffering wananchi finally decided that unrepresentative governments should not lead Kenya. He betrayed the trust, just like Moi and kenyatta before him. And so in three days Kenyans will vote to right the wrongs that have been allowed to go on for forty years.
When that happens, there's only one word that can and will describe the change that will have taken place. VINDICATION. It will be a vindication of the ideals our freedom fighters fought for. A vindication of the Kenya Waruru Kanja thought was possible when he called on us to end the politics of elimination. A vindication of the ideals Bishop Muge tirelessly advocated before his life was painfully snapped out. A vindication of the ideals Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko and JM and Masinde Muliro were killed trying to help take root in Kenya. Indeed, it will be a vindication of the one thing Kenyans have known all along...that when all is said and done, deep down we all long to live in peace and harmony one with another.
That's why about three weeks ago I dared to say that the Hon. Raila Odinga was God's choice to lead Kenya. Because at a time when the nation is standing on the threshold of taking its place among the the greatest and modern democracies of the world, when human rights and the celebration of humility are viewed by Kenyans as the next great thing, the Lord in His wisdom has seen it fit to call His servant, the Hon. Odinga, to lead His people to that place. And thankfully, the Hon. Odinga has said, "Here am I, Lord, send me."
The Lord sends the Hon. Odinga in three days. At that point we all start a journey to Kenyanize Kenya. A journey to true brotherhood. Let there be nobody in five years who'll say they feel left behind, unwanted. Because more than anything else, that is how we'll all know that for the first time since independence, the Lord has blest Kenya with a government for the people. And as I pen off, I hope that in five years, the Hon. odinga will still be able to go around the nation and meet millions of Kenyans who adoringly call him...Agwambo...Tinga...Nyundo!
I don't think he wants us to call him His Excellency, does he?
Fellow Kenyans,
In just three days, the journey the Hon. Raila Amollo Odinga started in the eighties will enter a new phase. With his election to the presidency, a matter approved from on high, the nation will embark on the final leg of a chapter that should have closed in the sixties, immediately after independence, but never did. I'm talking about national reconciliation and the creation of a nation that works for everyone.
What we've witnessed in the years since President Jomo Kenyatta took oath to lead the nation to prosperity has been the unequal distribution of national resources and the selective development of pockets of the nation. The result is that vast areas of Kenya remain sinfully underdeveloped, while others wallow in wealth and boast some of the richest Kenyans.
But what is more disturbing is the increasing tribalization of the nation. The shameless manner in which President Kibaki constituted his Cabinet and other key appointments is a case in point. He was obviously acting in the same way Presidents Kenyatta and Moi acted when it was their turn. The sad thing is, with President Kibaki, a man Kenyans voted for in droves, suffering wananchi finally decided that unrepresentative governments should not lead Kenya. He betrayed the trust, just like Moi and kenyatta before him. And so in three days Kenyans will vote to right the wrongs that have been allowed to go on for forty years.
When that happens, there's only one word that can and will describe the change that will have taken place. VINDICATION. It will be a vindication of the ideals our freedom fighters fought for. A vindication of the Kenya Waruru Kanja thought was possible when he called on us to end the politics of elimination. A vindication of the ideals Bishop Muge tirelessly advocated before his life was painfully snapped out. A vindication of the ideals Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko and JM and Masinde Muliro were killed trying to help take root in Kenya. Indeed, it will be a vindication of the one thing Kenyans have known all along...that when all is said and done, deep down we all long to live in peace and harmony one with another.
That's why about three weeks ago I dared to say that the Hon. Raila Odinga was God's choice to lead Kenya. Because at a time when the nation is standing on the threshold of taking its place among the the greatest and modern democracies of the world, when human rights and the celebration of humility are viewed by Kenyans as the next great thing, the Lord in His wisdom has seen it fit to call His servant, the Hon. Odinga, to lead His people to that place. And thankfully, the Hon. Odinga has said, "Here am I, Lord, send me."
The Lord sends the Hon. Odinga in three days. At that point we all start a journey to Kenyanize Kenya. A journey to true brotherhood. Let there be nobody in five years who'll say they feel left behind, unwanted. Because more than anything else, that is how we'll all know that for the first time since independence, the Lord has blest Kenya with a government for the people. And as I pen off, I hope that in five years, the Hon. odinga will still be able to go around the nation and meet millions of Kenyans who adoringly call him...Agwambo...Tinga...Nyundo!
I don't think he wants us to call him His Excellency, does he?
Friday, December 21, 2007
Mupende Musipende, Kamlesh (Paul) Pattni Is Already In The 10th Parliament
…And He Could Be The Next Official Leader Of The Opposition
Kamlesh Pattni, now known s brother Paul Pattni is believed to have been the main architect behind the multi-billon shilling Goldenbeg scam. Other tycoons who committed lesser evils like Ketan Somaia are now behind bars but Pattni continues to defy all odds and is now set to be a member of the 10th parliament.
Part of the reason why the man is not behind bars is because he is extremely intelligent and appears to have too much on former President Moi and his hand in Goldenberg.
So how is Pattni going to find his way into parliament even if he does not win a parliamentary seat? Actually Kenda is set to win a number of parliamentary seats countrywide and Pattni will have an opportunity to nominate not only himself but quite a number of other characters into the August house. It all depends on the number of seats that he will win and all signs are that his extremely well financed KENDA political party is going to win quite a number of seats. Those seats will be used to support Moi and his former henchmen who stole billions from the Kenyan people and are looking like they will get away with it.
Kenyans in every constituency need to be very careful about electing anybody from KENDA into parliament. A vote for KENDA is a vote for corruption and Moi.
Pattni’s chances for the Westlands seat don’t appear to be too bad after all. The way incumbent Fred Gumo is behaving (accompanying Raila to campaign meetings countrywide) suggest that he has already given up on being re-elected and is now looking for a nomination to parliament from ODM. The Asian influence in Westlands and Pattni’s almost bottomless pockets put him as a firm favorite for the seat and probably the next official leader of the opposition.
There have been reports that each KENDA parliamentary candidate has received Kshs 10 million for their campaign and when you consider the fact that it is only ODM that has fielded more candidates than KENDA, then Pattni and KENDA are the party to watch.
Kumekucha Poll
Much has been said and asked about my controversial poll. I will say no more. I only ask Kenyans that they judge me and the poll against the real results which will start trickling in on the 28th of December and which we will closely monitor and report about here.
Kamlesh Pattni, now known s brother Paul Pattni is believed to have been the main architect behind the multi-billon shilling Goldenbeg scam. Other tycoons who committed lesser evils like Ketan Somaia are now behind bars but Pattni continues to defy all odds and is now set to be a member of the 10th parliament.
Part of the reason why the man is not behind bars is because he is extremely intelligent and appears to have too much on former President Moi and his hand in Goldenberg.
So how is Pattni going to find his way into parliament even if he does not win a parliamentary seat? Actually Kenda is set to win a number of parliamentary seats countrywide and Pattni will have an opportunity to nominate not only himself but quite a number of other characters into the August house. It all depends on the number of seats that he will win and all signs are that his extremely well financed KENDA political party is going to win quite a number of seats. Those seats will be used to support Moi and his former henchmen who stole billions from the Kenyan people and are looking like they will get away with it.
Kenyans in every constituency need to be very careful about electing anybody from KENDA into parliament. A vote for KENDA is a vote for corruption and Moi.
Pattni’s chances for the Westlands seat don’t appear to be too bad after all. The way incumbent Fred Gumo is behaving (accompanying Raila to campaign meetings countrywide) suggest that he has already given up on being re-elected and is now looking for a nomination to parliament from ODM. The Asian influence in Westlands and Pattni’s almost bottomless pockets put him as a firm favorite for the seat and probably the next official leader of the opposition.
There have been reports that each KENDA parliamentary candidate has received Kshs 10 million for their campaign and when you consider the fact that it is only ODM that has fielded more candidates than KENDA, then Pattni and KENDA are the party to watch.
Kumekucha Poll
Much has been said and asked about my controversial poll. I will say no more. I only ask Kenyans that they judge me and the poll against the real results which will start trickling in on the 28th of December and which we will closely monitor and report about here.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Is Gallup’s Shocker About A Kibaki Lead True?
One can do all sorts of surveys and polls these days. In fact there is one you can do without leaving your desk—everything is done online. Let me take this opportunity to emphasize to Kumekuchans that the survey I published recently was NOT done in this way. In fact a lot of the data collection I did on my own. Actually I have been traveling a lot over the last few weeks and that is why my posts were so few and irregular then.
This I can tell you with all certainty the Gallup poll is pure rubbish. The problem with the other polls is that they concentrate too much in towns and major trading centres which I noted on my trip this time is heavily populated by people from all corners of the republic and not just the people in the area.
Something else I cam assure you is that Kenyan voters are in a very bad mood indeed and the results on 27th will be very difficult to swallow for many seasoned politicians. The message I got on the ground was very clear. It was;
“You guys somehow fixed the nominations, lets see you fix the elextions on the 27th.”
What pollsters need to tell Kenyans is what has caused the electorate to change their minds so many times as we head to the elections. Then they need to explain how a candidate can lead in six provinces and stil be in a neck to neck battle with his opponent who leads in only one province and has a slight lead in another. It just does not make any sense.
The position with Gallup is that Steadmann claimed the local affiliation which Gallup disputed and so the polls have all along been Steadmann polls. But it seems that Steadmann finally met the stringent requirements of Gallup who have a name to protect and are now the local reps. I’d like to tell the Gallup folks that their name is about to receive a major dent come the 27th of this month.
Still as far as Kenyan voters are concerned Steadmann is a better known name. Gallup means absolutely nothing to most Kenyans.
But what has been worrying opposition ranks the most is the recent utterances by PNU people to the effect that the opposition should e ready to accept the results. Meaning that the election results are already known to some PNU insiders and they show Mwai Kibaki victorious.
Judging from my extensive travels countrywide and my own survey, this is impossibility. It would be easier to tame a full grown crocodile on the Tana River and leave it with your toddler after only a day or two and expect to find her safe and alive than it would be for Kibaki to lead any electon poll in Kenya now or in the near future.
I am not favoring anybody. I am simply stating the cold facts on the ground as they are.
This I can tell you with all certainty the Gallup poll is pure rubbish. The problem with the other polls is that they concentrate too much in towns and major trading centres which I noted on my trip this time is heavily populated by people from all corners of the republic and not just the people in the area.
Something else I cam assure you is that Kenyan voters are in a very bad mood indeed and the results on 27th will be very difficult to swallow for many seasoned politicians. The message I got on the ground was very clear. It was;
“You guys somehow fixed the nominations, lets see you fix the elextions on the 27th.”
What pollsters need to tell Kenyans is what has caused the electorate to change their minds so many times as we head to the elections. Then they need to explain how a candidate can lead in six provinces and stil be in a neck to neck battle with his opponent who leads in only one province and has a slight lead in another. It just does not make any sense.
The position with Gallup is that Steadmann claimed the local affiliation which Gallup disputed and so the polls have all along been Steadmann polls. But it seems that Steadmann finally met the stringent requirements of Gallup who have a name to protect and are now the local reps. I’d like to tell the Gallup folks that their name is about to receive a major dent come the 27th of this month.
Still as far as Kenyan voters are concerned Steadmann is a better known name. Gallup means absolutely nothing to most Kenyans.
But what has been worrying opposition ranks the most is the recent utterances by PNU people to the effect that the opposition should e ready to accept the results. Meaning that the election results are already known to some PNU insiders and they show Mwai Kibaki victorious.
Judging from my extensive travels countrywide and my own survey, this is impossibility. It would be easier to tame a full grown crocodile on the Tana River and leave it with your toddler after only a day or two and expect to find her safe and alive than it would be for Kibaki to lead any electon poll in Kenya now or in the near future.
I am not favoring anybody. I am simply stating the cold facts on the ground as they are.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Political Parties And The 10th Parliament
The political temperatures are very high in Kenya. So high that for sometime I feared to publish the results of a countrywide poll I carried out. Well, I finally published it and got exactly what I had expected. Insults and folks saying that this is an ODM blog.
By publishing the provincial breakdown, I will only attract more insults, so I will not publish any more details about my poll. People will not believe the kind of support the candidate previously known as “the unelectable” enjoys in Simoen Nyachae’s Kisii or in most of Nairobi for that matter. Thank you PKW for reserving your comments for the 28th.
I did not publish the polls to upset anybody, I simply documented what the people on the ground are saying.
With this kind of obsession with the presidential elections, very little attention is being paid to the parliamentary elections. And yet whoever is elected president, their success or failure will hinge very heavily on how much support and goodwill they will enjoy from the 10th parliament.
Going by the mathematical law of probabilities, Kamlesh (or is it Paul?) Pattni’s KENDA party will be an extremely influential political party in the 10th parliament as will ODM-K. But it seems that the most powerful bloc of all will be the collection of numerous little known parties who collectively should end up with the second or third highest number of seats in parliament. This is significant and means that any presidential candidate who hopes to win the forthcoming polls should already be talking to and warming up to these minnows because they will make all the difference in the 10th parliament.
One of the reasons for this fascinating trend will be the fiasco of the party nominations where many popular candidates who had won their party nominations were locked out. They were left with no alternative but to find a way into the ballot paper for the constituency by joining one of the numerous (over 250) political parties. Most of these fringe political parties, Kenyans have never heard of.
Yep. It’s going to be a very fascinating general election.
By publishing the provincial breakdown, I will only attract more insults, so I will not publish any more details about my poll. People will not believe the kind of support the candidate previously known as “the unelectable” enjoys in Simoen Nyachae’s Kisii or in most of Nairobi for that matter. Thank you PKW for reserving your comments for the 28th.
I did not publish the polls to upset anybody, I simply documented what the people on the ground are saying.
With this kind of obsession with the presidential elections, very little attention is being paid to the parliamentary elections. And yet whoever is elected president, their success or failure will hinge very heavily on how much support and goodwill they will enjoy from the 10th parliament.
Going by the mathematical law of probabilities, Kamlesh (or is it Paul?) Pattni’s KENDA party will be an extremely influential political party in the 10th parliament as will ODM-K. But it seems that the most powerful bloc of all will be the collection of numerous little known parties who collectively should end up with the second or third highest number of seats in parliament. This is significant and means that any presidential candidate who hopes to win the forthcoming polls should already be talking to and warming up to these minnows because they will make all the difference in the 10th parliament.
One of the reasons for this fascinating trend will be the fiasco of the party nominations where many popular candidates who had won their party nominations were locked out. They were left with no alternative but to find a way into the ballot paper for the constituency by joining one of the numerous (over 250) political parties. Most of these fringe political parties, Kenyans have never heard of.
Yep. It’s going to be a very fascinating general election.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Kumekucha Poll Survey: Bizarre Results in Kisii
Anytime now, I will be releasing the results of a countrywide survey that I have carried out with the help of our numerous countrywide sources of information.
The different thing about this survey is that it was done amongst the ordinary folks of Kenya as well as the down and out struggling to put food on the table who make up the vast majority of voters.
To be absolutely honest I believe that I have always had my hand very close to the pulse of the nation, but I was still quite surprised by some of the findings that came through.
Today I will share about one of the areas of the country where our findings really surprised me.
I know the Kisii people fairly well and I have assumed all along that considering the strong influence Hon Simeon Nyachae has on the people in this area, ODM was unlikely to get anything better than lukewarm support from the Abagusii community.
My recent survey has proved just how wrong I was. A large chunk of the Kisii vote is set to go in the direction of ODM and the party’s presidential candidate Raila Odinga. In fact sources on the ground indicate that Hon Nyachae has in recent weeks greatly softened his previously highly combative attitude against ODM and Raila Odinga that culminated in the ugly incident of violence against ODM’s Ruto and Magara a few weeks ago. Insiders insist that the Roads Minister and chief PNU campaigner in the area has sent feelers to the people and to the ODM high command that he has nothing personal against the party or Raila Odinga. That is quite a telling gesture coming from an old hand experienced politician like Nyachae.
This is certainly not good news for PNU strategists who have all along counted Kisii as being more or less in the bag for the president, especially due to repeated assurances by Nyachae who has taken charge of the Kisii campaign and has told the president that he needn’t bother himself with trips to Kisii because the entire community is already in the bag for him.
I have been concurring with this sentiment knowing how deep and passionate the Abagusii are when it comes to cultural matters, most of all issues like circumcision where the Luo have different cultural practices for initiation that are mostly ridiculed in Kisii. In fact most women in Kisii are still circumcised and campaigns against this brutal FMG practice by numerous well-funded NGOs in the area have had very little impact. So it seemed that defeating Raila and ODM in Kisii was very simple. All that was required was for politicians like Nyacahe to take to the dias and lead the crowd in Kisii circumcision songs. No speeches would be necessary.
Now surprisingly it seems that an entire community has had its’ thinking transformed overnight. I will not for a minute pretend to know why and how this has happened.
But what is crystal clear are the percentage figures for thise area of Nyanza province. Kisii, is clearly ODM country and who can forget the chilling remark from one respondent who told our source in Kiswahili.
“Ikifika saa kumi na mbilli jioni tarehe 27th Dec, Wakenya watakua wamemalizana na Kibaki. Mimi sidaganyi wewe.” Roughly translated into English: “When the clock strikes 6 pm on 27th December, Kenyans will have sealed the fate of Mwai Kibaki. I am NOT lying to you.
The 5 Most Popular Stories in Kumekucha today-10th Nov
1. What this election is really all about
2. Who is this woman called Marianne Briner?
3. Mystery behind Raila's sudden popularity
4. What our Luo brothers need to know
5. Sahel CEO says that Raila is God's choice
The different thing about this survey is that it was done amongst the ordinary folks of Kenya as well as the down and out struggling to put food on the table who make up the vast majority of voters.
To be absolutely honest I believe that I have always had my hand very close to the pulse of the nation, but I was still quite surprised by some of the findings that came through.
Today I will share about one of the areas of the country where our findings really surprised me.
I know the Kisii people fairly well and I have assumed all along that considering the strong influence Hon Simeon Nyachae has on the people in this area, ODM was unlikely to get anything better than lukewarm support from the Abagusii community.
My recent survey has proved just how wrong I was. A large chunk of the Kisii vote is set to go in the direction of ODM and the party’s presidential candidate Raila Odinga. In fact sources on the ground indicate that Hon Nyachae has in recent weeks greatly softened his previously highly combative attitude against ODM and Raila Odinga that culminated in the ugly incident of violence against ODM’s Ruto and Magara a few weeks ago. Insiders insist that the Roads Minister and chief PNU campaigner in the area has sent feelers to the people and to the ODM high command that he has nothing personal against the party or Raila Odinga. That is quite a telling gesture coming from an old hand experienced politician like Nyachae.
This is certainly not good news for PNU strategists who have all along counted Kisii as being more or less in the bag for the president, especially due to repeated assurances by Nyachae who has taken charge of the Kisii campaign and has told the president that he needn’t bother himself with trips to Kisii because the entire community is already in the bag for him.
I have been concurring with this sentiment knowing how deep and passionate the Abagusii are when it comes to cultural matters, most of all issues like circumcision where the Luo have different cultural practices for initiation that are mostly ridiculed in Kisii. In fact most women in Kisii are still circumcised and campaigns against this brutal FMG practice by numerous well-funded NGOs in the area have had very little impact. So it seemed that defeating Raila and ODM in Kisii was very simple. All that was required was for politicians like Nyacahe to take to the dias and lead the crowd in Kisii circumcision songs. No speeches would be necessary.
Now surprisingly it seems that an entire community has had its’ thinking transformed overnight. I will not for a minute pretend to know why and how this has happened.
But what is crystal clear are the percentage figures for thise area of Nyanza province. Kisii, is clearly ODM country and who can forget the chilling remark from one respondent who told our source in Kiswahili.
“Ikifika saa kumi na mbilli jioni tarehe 27th Dec, Wakenya watakua wamemalizana na Kibaki. Mimi sidaganyi wewe.” Roughly translated into English: “When the clock strikes 6 pm on 27th December, Kenyans will have sealed the fate of Mwai Kibaki. I am NOT lying to you.
The 5 Most Popular Stories in Kumekucha today-10th Nov
1. What this election is really all about
2. Who is this woman called Marianne Briner?
3. Mystery behind Raila's sudden popularity
4. What our Luo brothers need to know
5. Sahel CEO says that Raila is God's choice
The Worrying Thing About Raila’s Financial Backers
Guest post by a former insider
One clarification first: I do not hold the key to a solution, but I may be able to explain where and how things went wrong .... the solution lies in the hands of each and everybody of you when you go to vote on December 27th .....
Things went wrong a long time ago but as long as a totally corrupt and surpressing Government (speak Moi) did not allow free expression of mind and controlled the press totally, many things were not known and could not be known. And if anybody dared to talk, he (she) disappeared out of public (political) life and sometimes even got killed (and I do not only talk about Dr. Ouko .....).
But now you have the possibility to know and to talk - and still, the same people who held you for ransom for so long, continue controlling your life - and that is unexcusable .... do not allow this to happen.
Although I do not see that things will change in the next 10 or so years ... Moi, Biwott and also Kibaki are too clever .... whenever it suits them they fall back on the tradition that elders have to be respected ...... they manipulate a whole country ..... and even these tribal slogans creating hate and fear amongst Kenyans - Kenyans who have learned to live, laugh (and love) together in normal times.
But with Elections, all of the sudden this subject is coming in. Do you not ask yourself 'why?' - 'why all of the sudden'?
The answer is very simple: Because it fits into the pattern of certain people and they know very well how to organize and use this. This is not new, it was done all the time. Just remember the so-called 'ethnic' cleansing in 1992 where thousands have been killed and more lost their homes.
So the Mt. Elgon situation of today already existed before and was used to create fear amongst the people ..... 'be careful, see what happens if you don't elect me (at that time Moi who was in danger after Ouko got killed and he had to succumb to the call for a multi-party-system)' and now the same with Kibaki 'if you do not re-elect me, things will go out of control ......' - we are your saviours, and nobody else ....
I do not say that Raila is the perfect man ..... there are too many open questions also regarding him. He has some business contacts which I do not trust a bit (South African Whites with a very shady past) ... he owes them a lot of money and they are interested that he becomes President so they get back their money .... they are mainly interested in the oil-deals but also in road-construction and other profitable business like railways, refinery, ports etc. ..... why do you think Raila has started to talk about building a new port in the north, a railway-connection to the Sudan, etc. etc. - but his partners are criminals, internationally known crooks ..... and that's scary ....
And then there is still Biwott .... I do not want to go into details regarding him .... but it is more than worrisome (and here I quote Mutula Kilonzo who once wrote to me regarding Biwott: that a man like him can influence the outcome of elections and even decide on who becomes the next President, is the most disturbing thing and says a lot about Kenya...) ... and reading that one of his wives - Prof. Kamar - (besides her he has two more: one jewish white and a Tanzanian) - is running for Parliament on an ODM-ticket and besides her also her brother ..... gives me more than a chill ....besides the fact that already one of his daughters - Esther Koimet - is holding a very crucial position in the financial government sector.
And now I better stop .... although I did not answer your initial question: how did I come into all this ????? That's a very long story ..... but piece by piece I will give you the answer ..... just be a little bit patient.
Regards,
Marianne Briner
The 5 Most Popular Stories in Kumekucha today-10th Nov
1. What this election is really all about
2. Who is this woman called Marianne Briner?
3. Mystery behind Raila's sudden popularity
4. What our Luo brothers need to know
5. Sahel CEO says that Raila is God's choice
One clarification first: I do not hold the key to a solution, but I may be able to explain where and how things went wrong .... the solution lies in the hands of each and everybody of you when you go to vote on December 27th .....
Things went wrong a long time ago but as long as a totally corrupt and surpressing Government (speak Moi) did not allow free expression of mind and controlled the press totally, many things were not known and could not be known. And if anybody dared to talk, he (she) disappeared out of public (political) life and sometimes even got killed (and I do not only talk about Dr. Ouko .....).
But now you have the possibility to know and to talk - and still, the same people who held you for ransom for so long, continue controlling your life - and that is unexcusable .... do not allow this to happen.
Although I do not see that things will change in the next 10 or so years ... Moi, Biwott and also Kibaki are too clever .... whenever it suits them they fall back on the tradition that elders have to be respected ...... they manipulate a whole country ..... and even these tribal slogans creating hate and fear amongst Kenyans - Kenyans who have learned to live, laugh (and love) together in normal times.
But with Elections, all of the sudden this subject is coming in. Do you not ask yourself 'why?' - 'why all of the sudden'?
The answer is very simple: Because it fits into the pattern of certain people and they know very well how to organize and use this. This is not new, it was done all the time. Just remember the so-called 'ethnic' cleansing in 1992 where thousands have been killed and more lost their homes.
So the Mt. Elgon situation of today already existed before and was used to create fear amongst the people ..... 'be careful, see what happens if you don't elect me (at that time Moi who was in danger after Ouko got killed and he had to succumb to the call for a multi-party-system)' and now the same with Kibaki 'if you do not re-elect me, things will go out of control ......' - we are your saviours, and nobody else ....
I do not say that Raila is the perfect man ..... there are too many open questions also regarding him. He has some business contacts which I do not trust a bit (South African Whites with a very shady past) ... he owes them a lot of money and they are interested that he becomes President so they get back their money .... they are mainly interested in the oil-deals but also in road-construction and other profitable business like railways, refinery, ports etc. ..... why do you think Raila has started to talk about building a new port in the north, a railway-connection to the Sudan, etc. etc. - but his partners are criminals, internationally known crooks ..... and that's scary ....
And then there is still Biwott .... I do not want to go into details regarding him .... but it is more than worrisome (and here I quote Mutula Kilonzo who once wrote to me regarding Biwott: that a man like him can influence the outcome of elections and even decide on who becomes the next President, is the most disturbing thing and says a lot about Kenya...) ... and reading that one of his wives - Prof. Kamar - (besides her he has two more: one jewish white and a Tanzanian) - is running for Parliament on an ODM-ticket and besides her also her brother ..... gives me more than a chill ....besides the fact that already one of his daughters - Esther Koimet - is holding a very crucial position in the financial government sector.
And now I better stop .... although I did not answer your initial question: how did I come into all this ????? That's a very long story ..... but piece by piece I will give you the answer ..... just be a little bit patient.
Regards,
Marianne Briner
The 5 Most Popular Stories in Kumekucha today-10th Nov
1. What this election is really all about
2. Who is this woman called Marianne Briner?
3. Mystery behind Raila's sudden popularity
4. What our Luo brothers need to know
5. Sahel CEO says that Raila is God's choice
Sunday, December 09, 2007
What This Election Is Really All About
In a few days time (how time flies) Kenyans will go to the polls to make perhaps the most important decision humans on these shores have ever had to make in East African history.
The saddest thing of all as that day rapidly approaches is the fact that the real issues in these elections have deliberately been crowded out by non-issues. Contrary to what many folks think, Elections 2007 is not about tribalism. Actually it is about money and corruption.
Let me explain.
There is plenty of evidence that the Kibaki administration started out very serious about fighting corruption. In recent times it has often been suggested that they never intended to do anything about it. That IS NOT TRUE.
To bring into perspective the decision you and I have to make seated/standing inside some polling booth it is important that we understand where and why that fight against corruption ended.
Actually all was going well until sometime in mid 2004. Just before things went terribly wrong, impeccable sources have it that a deal had been struck (with some of the thieves of public funds) to have quite a hefty sum of money returned into the country. For a moment it looked like Kenya was about to make a dramatic turn in the right direction.
Reports on exactly what triggered the derailment of the fight against corruption at this stage are varied. Some sources say that insiders convinced the president that his administration was doomed without a “reliable source of funding.” Others say that intelligence reports showed evidence of destabilization of the Kibaki administration by some very rich individuals in the former Kanu government using their ill-gotten wealth. The truth will probably never be known.
What happened next was that some very prominent personalities in Kibaki’s inner circle made “private deals” that effectively killed all the good progress that had been made. One of those characters (a cabinet minister) was suddenly flash with cash and bought shares in Lewa Downs even as he undertook expensive private construction programmes in Meru and Karen in Nairobi, all at the same time. His cabinet colleague who had been dodging auctioneers in the run-up to the 2002 general elections suddenly paid off all his hefty debts and also got involved in major private construction projects in Nyeri.
But what many people who were aware of what was happening did not realize at the time was that the president’s re-election team for 2007 was effectively coming together at that particular juncture.
Those “private deals” are the real reason why retired President Moi and the Kenyatta family have solidly thrown everything behind the Kibaki re-election campaign. These are all individuals, so where does tribalism come in? How is it that these elections have become so charged with ethnicity?
The answer is very simple. A large percentage of Kenyans have been “cheated” in much the same way that the masses of Kenya have always been fooled. We have been hoodwinked into defending thieves and corrupt individuals using the old time-worn but very effective strategy of politicians in these shores of saying that the entire tribe/community is under siege. The right Kenyan term is; “our tribe is being finished.”
Interestingly the Kalenjin community, whom other Kenyans have always assumed (very wrongly) are not intelligent, have NOT fallen for that old trick this time. However the house of Mumbi whom Kenyans have always held in high esteem assuming that they are extremely intelligent have swallowed the bait hook line and sinker. The message to the Kikuyu has been simple and effective. It is; “if Kibaki is not re-elected, the Kikuyu will be finished.” This is the kind of rubbish that even a crocodile on the Tana River with its’ powerful jaws wide open cannot swallow. Yet it is the feeling amongst most of our Kikuyu brothers and sisters.
The true position is that the Kenyatta family and the Kibaki family stand to lose a lot of money if President Kibaki is not re-elected. Of course both families had no intention whatsoever of sharing that loot with the community or putting it into any community-based projects for that matter.
My humble message to my Kikuyu brothers and sisters (and indeed my in-laws) is very simple. Whatever voting decision you make on 27th is your democratic right. But just remember that you and your children’s children will have to live with the consequences of your decision for years to come. If I were you and still felt that warm fuzzy filling towards my tribes mate that is unshakeable, I would rather look at the other candidates from the community like Kenneth Matiba and Pastor Pius Muiru. A vote for these two will be much easier on your conscience for years to come. The harsh reality of this matter is that a vote for Kibaki is a vote for Moi and the billions he and his family have stashed away abroad. It is a vote saying that the status quo should be maintained at all costs (kazi inendelee).
If you feel very strongly about voting for a candidate who has no chance of winning then why not throw your weight around Kalonzo Musyoka of ODM-K (I dare not mention Raila because that name provokes the kind of emotions we all know amongst the House of Mumbi). A solid Kikuyu vote for Kalonzo is enough to get him into State House. In my view he is the least qualified of the 3 major candidates, but conscience is everything and such a decision would also rest well in the conscience of my Kikuyu brothers.
It is instructive that PNU is the only political party amongst the big 3 that has not dared mention the issue of fighting corruption in its’ agenda. That is commendable. They are sincere.
P.S. If this post means that Kumekucha has broken the rule of being neutral, so be it. However in my view, being neutral does not mean throwing the truth out of the window. Here’s some more “neutral truth” for you. Many individuals in ODM are corrupt and have helped in fleecing public coffers. That one is also a fact and Kenyan voters will need to consider this very carefully as they cast their votes for their MPs. My advice; vote individuals and ignore party affiliation, because political parties in Kenya are not worth the paper on which their registration certificates are typed on.
The saddest thing of all as that day rapidly approaches is the fact that the real issues in these elections have deliberately been crowded out by non-issues. Contrary to what many folks think, Elections 2007 is not about tribalism. Actually it is about money and corruption.
Let me explain.
There is plenty of evidence that the Kibaki administration started out very serious about fighting corruption. In recent times it has often been suggested that they never intended to do anything about it. That IS NOT TRUE.
To bring into perspective the decision you and I have to make seated/standing inside some polling booth it is important that we understand where and why that fight against corruption ended.
Actually all was going well until sometime in mid 2004. Just before things went terribly wrong, impeccable sources have it that a deal had been struck (with some of the thieves of public funds) to have quite a hefty sum of money returned into the country. For a moment it looked like Kenya was about to make a dramatic turn in the right direction.
Reports on exactly what triggered the derailment of the fight against corruption at this stage are varied. Some sources say that insiders convinced the president that his administration was doomed without a “reliable source of funding.” Others say that intelligence reports showed evidence of destabilization of the Kibaki administration by some very rich individuals in the former Kanu government using their ill-gotten wealth. The truth will probably never be known.
What happened next was that some very prominent personalities in Kibaki’s inner circle made “private deals” that effectively killed all the good progress that had been made. One of those characters (a cabinet minister) was suddenly flash with cash and bought shares in Lewa Downs even as he undertook expensive private construction programmes in Meru and Karen in Nairobi, all at the same time. His cabinet colleague who had been dodging auctioneers in the run-up to the 2002 general elections suddenly paid off all his hefty debts and also got involved in major private construction projects in Nyeri.
But what many people who were aware of what was happening did not realize at the time was that the president’s re-election team for 2007 was effectively coming together at that particular juncture.
Those “private deals” are the real reason why retired President Moi and the Kenyatta family have solidly thrown everything behind the Kibaki re-election campaign. These are all individuals, so where does tribalism come in? How is it that these elections have become so charged with ethnicity?
The answer is very simple. A large percentage of Kenyans have been “cheated” in much the same way that the masses of Kenya have always been fooled. We have been hoodwinked into defending thieves and corrupt individuals using the old time-worn but very effective strategy of politicians in these shores of saying that the entire tribe/community is under siege. The right Kenyan term is; “our tribe is being finished.”
Interestingly the Kalenjin community, whom other Kenyans have always assumed (very wrongly) are not intelligent, have NOT fallen for that old trick this time. However the house of Mumbi whom Kenyans have always held in high esteem assuming that they are extremely intelligent have swallowed the bait hook line and sinker. The message to the Kikuyu has been simple and effective. It is; “if Kibaki is not re-elected, the Kikuyu will be finished.” This is the kind of rubbish that even a crocodile on the Tana River with its’ powerful jaws wide open cannot swallow. Yet it is the feeling amongst most of our Kikuyu brothers and sisters.
The true position is that the Kenyatta family and the Kibaki family stand to lose a lot of money if President Kibaki is not re-elected. Of course both families had no intention whatsoever of sharing that loot with the community or putting it into any community-based projects for that matter.
My humble message to my Kikuyu brothers and sisters (and indeed my in-laws) is very simple. Whatever voting decision you make on 27th is your democratic right. But just remember that you and your children’s children will have to live with the consequences of your decision for years to come. If I were you and still felt that warm fuzzy filling towards my tribes mate that is unshakeable, I would rather look at the other candidates from the community like Kenneth Matiba and Pastor Pius Muiru. A vote for these two will be much easier on your conscience for years to come. The harsh reality of this matter is that a vote for Kibaki is a vote for Moi and the billions he and his family have stashed away abroad. It is a vote saying that the status quo should be maintained at all costs (kazi inendelee).
If you feel very strongly about voting for a candidate who has no chance of winning then why not throw your weight around Kalonzo Musyoka of ODM-K (I dare not mention Raila because that name provokes the kind of emotions we all know amongst the House of Mumbi). A solid Kikuyu vote for Kalonzo is enough to get him into State House. In my view he is the least qualified of the 3 major candidates, but conscience is everything and such a decision would also rest well in the conscience of my Kikuyu brothers.
It is instructive that PNU is the only political party amongst the big 3 that has not dared mention the issue of fighting corruption in its’ agenda. That is commendable. They are sincere.
P.S. If this post means that Kumekucha has broken the rule of being neutral, so be it. However in my view, being neutral does not mean throwing the truth out of the window. Here’s some more “neutral truth” for you. Many individuals in ODM are corrupt and have helped in fleecing public coffers. That one is also a fact and Kenyan voters will need to consider this very carefully as they cast their votes for their MPs. My advice; vote individuals and ignore party affiliation, because political parties in Kenya are not worth the paper on which their registration certificates are typed on.
WHO IS THIS WOMAN CALLED MARIANNE BRINER?
Many people - even in some roundtable-discussions in the American TV - have asked the question 'who is this woman called Marianne Briner and what is her background?'
So I have decided to give some answers.....
I grew up in Germany in a very social and open environment - although being born in 1941 in the middle of World War II this was sometimes not easy. My father was not serving as a soldier but was belonging to a Medical Team in charge of wounded soldiers and also prisoners of war. He was a very courageous man and I admired him a lot.
Just to give you an example: As I said before, he was also in charge to control the health of some high-ranked prisoners, amongst whom were even some Russian Generals ...... my father made sure that they were not only getting medical attention, but also decent food and could send some letters to their families at home (actually this was strictly forbidden, so my father had to smuggle these messages out and then mail them under his own name) ..... as I said before, he was a very courageous man.
Some of these Russians became his friends and he even managed to get them out of their prison-cells to attend the Christmas celebrations at our house...... I was only 3 or 4 years old, but I remember very well how I was sitting on their labs and they were hugging me with tears in their eyes thinking about their own children...... and singing old Russian Christmas songs with beautiful voices ...... and my mother - who had a beautiful voice herself - joining them - and then we were all attending the church-service at 5 a.m. - making sure that they reached their prison camp before anybody could realize that they had spent this very special night outside.......
When it was clear that the war was finishing, many of these prisoners in other camps got killed (shot) by the German Authorities but my father managed to set 'his' prisoners free - i.e. letting them 'escape' .........
He later got a medal for this by the Russian Government and some of these Russian Officers came even personally a few years later to thank him personally.
So I had inspite of the fact that we were living during the World-War-II-aftermaths a very happy childhood with a lot of privileges as I have realized only later since at that time it was all 'natural' for me.
My parents always insisted that also as a girl (I had a brother who was one year younger) you have to have a good education enabling you to become independent in your future life.
This seems to be normal today. But at that time it was not ...... girls were 'allowed' to be intelligent ....... but - please - not too much - since their utmost 'goal' was to 'catch' a good man, settle down and become a good wife and mother ...... and that was it........
As a result I attended a very selective Gymnasium for Girls (similar to a Girl's High School). The biggest attraction there was our Music-Teacher - Otto Daube. He was a friend of the Wagner-Family and well-connected in the international music world.
So we had the privilege that the most famous international musicians and singers of that time came to our school to give free concerts for us.
And each year he invited some of us to accompany him to attend the Wagner-Festival in Bayreuth ..... and for two years I was one of this 'selective' group.
For those who do not know what this means: The Wagner-Festival is upto today the most exclusive and prestigeous international venue - with a waiting list to get tickets - not only for one season but for upto 10 years .....
Besides this classical event, we were also interested in Jazz - attending (again with the help of our famous music teacher) concerts of Louis Armstrong, Duke Ellington, Dizzie Gillespie, Chris Barber, Miles Davies etc. -
And this leads me to the best of all:
Since we (and I talk about a group of friends and myself) were not satisfied with 'only' attending these concerts, but wanted to do something ourselves, we got the permission to convert an old war-bunker in my hometown Hattingen into a 'jazz-bunker' ......... o.k. I admit, it helped that the father of one of us was the Mayor and another one was the Administration-Director and both of them liked our idea .......
But it was us who worked in it day and night - cleaning, painting etc. - and finally we got the permission to use it and then the best thing of all: people like Louis Armstrong etc. came and gave private concerts - and not only that, they loved it and told friends about it and it soon became a very famous venue ....... and best of all: it was free of charge since none of these famous people ever charged us for their appearances ......
Maybe it helped that amongst us was the son and heir of the famous Krupp (Steel) Dynasty - Arndt von Bohlen - I don't know .... but it was fun ...... and some of my old friends of that time (like von Stockhausen and Klaus Doldinger) even became very famous musicians and another friend is now one of the most famous German TV-Actresses ..... Marie-Luise Marjan .....
Besides my father, the biggest 'impact' on my life had the sister of my mother.
She was married in the Netherlands and her husband was the Director of the West-Indian-Banana-Company (WIBIC) with the brand-name 'Fyffes' which later became the famous 'Chiquita'.....
His brother was the Financial Adviser of the Dutch Queen (first Wilhelmina and then Juliana - grandmother and mother of the present Queen Beatrix).
Since I used to spend all my summer-holidays in the Netherlands, it was Beatrix and her younger sister Irene with whom I spent most of my time .... and we became very close friends.
I soon learned that my aunt (my mother's sister) had been a driving force behind rescuing Dutch Jews from the Holocaust during the War - first hiding them and finally arranging for their departure mainly to the United States - risking her own life in doing this.
She also set up a Charity Organization for mistreated girls and women at a time when nobody even believed that these horrible things existed. This earned her later the title 'Dame of the Court' - given to her by Queen Beatrix.
And here life and its amazing stories crops in:
the present Queen is Beatrix - the same with whom I once went bicycling during my childhood - and her husband was Claus von Amsberg ......... and he was directly related to my daughter's husband ......... actually Crown-Prince Willem Alexander is a first cousin of my daughter's husband ..... and he is also related to the Spanish Royal House (my daughter calls this 'the Spanish branch of the family tree...' - and this was one of the reasons why Jeff Koinange was so interested in her - calling her 'royal' ..............
As I said before, my childhood was not very 'normal' and this applies to the rest of my life - I think .....................
My first 'boyfriend' was Klaus Westphal - the son of one of the most famous German Atomic-Power-Physician - his 'Godfather' was Albert Einstein ..... and this should give you an idea ..............
Get me right - at that time things were very innocent and not like it is today - we met during a school trip - he was two years older than me..... we started writing to each other and then he invited me to come to visit him in Berlin. When my parents had some objections (don't forget, things were different at that time) ..... his mother wrote a very nice letter to my mother assuring her that everything was fine ..............
So I got the permission by my parents to visit him ..... and from then on we kept contacts ....... even after I met my future husband and then Klaus also met his present wife Margrit ...... it was an innocent friendship which started when we were both just teenagers ....... and it always stayed like that.
Klaus is living since many years in the US and has become very famous ..... he was one of the driving forces behind the Jurassic Park movies ...... for all those who are interested to know more about him: google 'Klaus Westphal' ...... and you will know what I am talking about .... his father's name was Wilhelm F. Westphal - for the ones who really want to know more .....
Other people who had a strong influence on my life:
Ivo Andric - Literature Nobel Price winner - I met him and his wife in Yugoslavia when I was only 20 years old ..... they invited me to their home and we kept contact for some years after. The way I met him is a story in itself: I was on holidays and while we had a beach party, one of our local friends pointed to a house on a hill informing us that it is the holiday residence of Ivo Andric who had been awarded the Nobel Price for Literature. To be honest, we had already a little bit (too much) red wine - and I challenged them 'Shall we bet that latest in two days from now I will be invited by Ivo Andric???? ...... My friends started laughing and told me to 'sober up' ..... and stop dreaming !!!!!!! But when I went back to my hotel, I started to write a letter in which I congratulated him and told him that I would like to meet him ...... I dropped the letter the following morning in the mail-box at the entrance gate of his house ...... and waited.
And already the same day, I found a message in my hotel inviting me for lunch the following day......... He was a very nice, very polite man. Also his wife was present (she worked as a Doctor at a Belgrade Hospital) ..... and both of them spoke fluently German........ I stayed until Dinner since he wanted to know so many things about Germany, the young Generation, politics etc. At that time, the communist regime did not allow him to travel freely and the only contacts he had were with people from the then German Democratic Republic .....
I saw him twice after this ..... and then he also wrote for some time ...... we lost contact when I started to work as Air Hostess and moved to Frankfurt.
Another 'famous' old friend of mine is Donald Kursch - I met him when he was American Vice-Counsel in Zurich - he later became Special Ambassador of the US in the Kosovo ...... he introduced me to some friends in New York who then invited me to some High Society Functions. One was the wedding of the Heir of Wrigley Chewinggum .... which took place at the Jade Room of the Waldorff-Astoria Hotel ....
At another occasion I also met Ted Kennedy and later also Robert and Ethel Kennedy .... and I was in Los Angeles when Bob Kennedy was shot and a few days later again in New York where I had the possibility to see the coffin and attend the church service at the St. Patrick Cathedral ....
There are many more who crossed 'my path's ..............
So you see, my life did not start in Kenya .............. it 'started' long before that ..............................maybe one day I will also write about this as my daughter is pleading with me since years .........
So I have decided to give some answers.....
I grew up in Germany in a very social and open environment - although being born in 1941 in the middle of World War II this was sometimes not easy. My father was not serving as a soldier but was belonging to a Medical Team in charge of wounded soldiers and also prisoners of war. He was a very courageous man and I admired him a lot.
Just to give you an example: As I said before, he was also in charge to control the health of some high-ranked prisoners, amongst whom were even some Russian Generals ...... my father made sure that they were not only getting medical attention, but also decent food and could send some letters to their families at home (actually this was strictly forbidden, so my father had to smuggle these messages out and then mail them under his own name) ..... as I said before, he was a very courageous man.
Some of these Russians became his friends and he even managed to get them out of their prison-cells to attend the Christmas celebrations at our house...... I was only 3 or 4 years old, but I remember very well how I was sitting on their labs and they were hugging me with tears in their eyes thinking about their own children...... and singing old Russian Christmas songs with beautiful voices ...... and my mother - who had a beautiful voice herself - joining them - and then we were all attending the church-service at 5 a.m. - making sure that they reached their prison camp before anybody could realize that they had spent this very special night outside.......
When it was clear that the war was finishing, many of these prisoners in other camps got killed (shot) by the German Authorities but my father managed to set 'his' prisoners free - i.e. letting them 'escape' .........
He later got a medal for this by the Russian Government and some of these Russian Officers came even personally a few years later to thank him personally.
So I had inspite of the fact that we were living during the World-War-II-aftermaths a very happy childhood with a lot of privileges as I have realized only later since at that time it was all 'natural' for me.
My parents always insisted that also as a girl (I had a brother who was one year younger) you have to have a good education enabling you to become independent in your future life.
This seems to be normal today. But at that time it was not ...... girls were 'allowed' to be intelligent ....... but - please - not too much - since their utmost 'goal' was to 'catch' a good man, settle down and become a good wife and mother ...... and that was it........
As a result I attended a very selective Gymnasium for Girls (similar to a Girl's High School). The biggest attraction there was our Music-Teacher - Otto Daube. He was a friend of the Wagner-Family and well-connected in the international music world.
So we had the privilege that the most famous international musicians and singers of that time came to our school to give free concerts for us.
And each year he invited some of us to accompany him to attend the Wagner-Festival in Bayreuth ..... and for two years I was one of this 'selective' group.
For those who do not know what this means: The Wagner-Festival is upto today the most exclusive and prestigeous international venue - with a waiting list to get tickets - not only for one season but for upto 10 years .....
Besides this classical event, we were also interested in Jazz - attending (again with the help of our famous music teacher) concerts of Louis Armstrong, Duke Ellington, Dizzie Gillespie, Chris Barber, Miles Davies etc. -
And this leads me to the best of all:
Since we (and I talk about a group of friends and myself) were not satisfied with 'only' attending these concerts, but wanted to do something ourselves, we got the permission to convert an old war-bunker in my hometown Hattingen into a 'jazz-bunker' ......... o.k. I admit, it helped that the father of one of us was the Mayor and another one was the Administration-Director and both of them liked our idea .......
But it was us who worked in it day and night - cleaning, painting etc. - and finally we got the permission to use it and then the best thing of all: people like Louis Armstrong etc. came and gave private concerts - and not only that, they loved it and told friends about it and it soon became a very famous venue ....... and best of all: it was free of charge since none of these famous people ever charged us for their appearances ......
Maybe it helped that amongst us was the son and heir of the famous Krupp (Steel) Dynasty - Arndt von Bohlen - I don't know .... but it was fun ...... and some of my old friends of that time (like von Stockhausen and Klaus Doldinger) even became very famous musicians and another friend is now one of the most famous German TV-Actresses ..... Marie-Luise Marjan .....
Besides my father, the biggest 'impact' on my life had the sister of my mother.
She was married in the Netherlands and her husband was the Director of the West-Indian-Banana-Company (WIBIC) with the brand-name 'Fyffes' which later became the famous 'Chiquita'.....
His brother was the Financial Adviser of the Dutch Queen (first Wilhelmina and then Juliana - grandmother and mother of the present Queen Beatrix).
Since I used to spend all my summer-holidays in the Netherlands, it was Beatrix and her younger sister Irene with whom I spent most of my time .... and we became very close friends.
I soon learned that my aunt (my mother's sister) had been a driving force behind rescuing Dutch Jews from the Holocaust during the War - first hiding them and finally arranging for their departure mainly to the United States - risking her own life in doing this.
She also set up a Charity Organization for mistreated girls and women at a time when nobody even believed that these horrible things existed. This earned her later the title 'Dame of the Court' - given to her by Queen Beatrix.
And here life and its amazing stories crops in:
the present Queen is Beatrix - the same with whom I once went bicycling during my childhood - and her husband was Claus von Amsberg ......... and he was directly related to my daughter's husband ......... actually Crown-Prince Willem Alexander is a first cousin of my daughter's husband ..... and he is also related to the Spanish Royal House (my daughter calls this 'the Spanish branch of the family tree...' - and this was one of the reasons why Jeff Koinange was so interested in her - calling her 'royal' ..............
As I said before, my childhood was not very 'normal' and this applies to the rest of my life - I think .....................
My first 'boyfriend' was Klaus Westphal - the son of one of the most famous German Atomic-Power-Physician - his 'Godfather' was Albert Einstein ..... and this should give you an idea ..............
Get me right - at that time things were very innocent and not like it is today - we met during a school trip - he was two years older than me..... we started writing to each other and then he invited me to come to visit him in Berlin. When my parents had some objections (don't forget, things were different at that time) ..... his mother wrote a very nice letter to my mother assuring her that everything was fine ..............
So I got the permission by my parents to visit him ..... and from then on we kept contacts ....... even after I met my future husband and then Klaus also met his present wife Margrit ...... it was an innocent friendship which started when we were both just teenagers ....... and it always stayed like that.
Klaus is living since many years in the US and has become very famous ..... he was one of the driving forces behind the Jurassic Park movies ...... for all those who are interested to know more about him: google 'Klaus Westphal' ...... and you will know what I am talking about .... his father's name was Wilhelm F. Westphal - for the ones who really want to know more .....
Other people who had a strong influence on my life:
Ivo Andric - Literature Nobel Price winner - I met him and his wife in Yugoslavia when I was only 20 years old ..... they invited me to their home and we kept contact for some years after. The way I met him is a story in itself: I was on holidays and while we had a beach party, one of our local friends pointed to a house on a hill informing us that it is the holiday residence of Ivo Andric who had been awarded the Nobel Price for Literature. To be honest, we had already a little bit (too much) red wine - and I challenged them 'Shall we bet that latest in two days from now I will be invited by Ivo Andric???? ...... My friends started laughing and told me to 'sober up' ..... and stop dreaming !!!!!!! But when I went back to my hotel, I started to write a letter in which I congratulated him and told him that I would like to meet him ...... I dropped the letter the following morning in the mail-box at the entrance gate of his house ...... and waited.
And already the same day, I found a message in my hotel inviting me for lunch the following day......... He was a very nice, very polite man. Also his wife was present (she worked as a Doctor at a Belgrade Hospital) ..... and both of them spoke fluently German........ I stayed until Dinner since he wanted to know so many things about Germany, the young Generation, politics etc. At that time, the communist regime did not allow him to travel freely and the only contacts he had were with people from the then German Democratic Republic .....
I saw him twice after this ..... and then he also wrote for some time ...... we lost contact when I started to work as Air Hostess and moved to Frankfurt.
Another 'famous' old friend of mine is Donald Kursch - I met him when he was American Vice-Counsel in Zurich - he later became Special Ambassador of the US in the Kosovo ...... he introduced me to some friends in New York who then invited me to some High Society Functions. One was the wedding of the Heir of Wrigley Chewinggum .... which took place at the Jade Room of the Waldorff-Astoria Hotel ....
At another occasion I also met Ted Kennedy and later also Robert and Ethel Kennedy .... and I was in Los Angeles when Bob Kennedy was shot and a few days later again in New York where I had the possibility to see the coffin and attend the church service at the St. Patrick Cathedral ....
There are many more who crossed 'my path's ..............
So you see, my life did not start in Kenya .............. it 'started' long before that ..............................maybe one day I will also write about this as my daughter is pleading with me since years .........
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Danger Ahead: The Next Move Could Leave Kenyans Numb With Shock
For one magical moment in the recent post where I reproduced the hate literature being distributed in the Rift Valley, all major Kumekucha contributors for once seemed to find a common ground. Everybody agreed that this was something that Kenya does NOT need.
It is my sincere hope that what I am about to say will be received in the same spirit because it is bigger than petty partisan politics. It is more important than PNU and more important than ODM, ODM-Kenya and any other political party for that matter.
Let me also emphasize that it has nothing to do with tribalism. The truth is that greedy politicians have always managed to rally their tribesmen around themselves in their grand mission to enrich themselves and to destroy any obstacle standing in their way. This appeal to the tribe has always worked like magic. For instance nobody talks about Anglo Leasing any more because the widely held view by those supporting PNU is that there is a bigger enemy that has to be dealt with first. Little do they know that this election is all about retaining power so as to continue with the plan of personal enrichment and more Anglo Leasing by certain individuals in the current government. It has nothing to do with our poor Kikuyu brothers, some of whom have suffered more than other communities in Kenya, losing scores of relatives who basically died for nothing.
In the same way, Tom Mboya was NOT assassinated by the Kikuyus and neither was Robert Ouko bumped off by the Kalenjins. NO!!! This dirty work was carried out by individuals who fell back on their tribes for support after their evil mission was accomplished.
For some time now, there have been rumours (mainly brushed aside by most wise know-all analysts) about an impending political assassination. Interestingly this rumour has been strongest amongst security personnel (which should tell you a lot.)
The reason why many people do not take such rumours seriously is because they assume that it is all Domo and ODM propaganda. My enquiries have revealed a totally different chilling picture.
For starters, to date nobody has been able to explain the mystery of the Artur brothers and their real mission in the country. Impeccable sources recently revealed that they were brought in to “clean up” and that their mission was to assassinate a certain list of prominent Kenyans. The identity of the two well known personalities who brought them into the country left me thunderstruck and even I am frightened to name them here.
These same individuals have not abandoned their “cleaning up ideas.” In recent times some Israelis have been recruited to explore the same option amongst other options. Some of these “other options” being explored will make any right thinking Kenyan sick to the pit of their stomach. But admittedly it is a strategy that many politicians have pulled off very successfully in the past both locally and elsewhere. The option is to assassinate a senior person within PNU and then blame it on the ODM crowd.
My prayer is that the individuals involved in this evil should abandon their plans, no matter how desperate they may be.
What should really worry Kenyans is the fact that powerful forces behind the scenes have not been happy with recent political developments and their plans to influence the forthcoming polls seem to have been frustrated with everything going wrong. That fact should make every sensitive, intelligent Kenyan very worried indeed because the most likely thing that would happen is for these guys to pull off some desperate measure that will leave Kenya in chaos.
Mercifully experts in this macabre business believe that most of the individuals currently involved are incapable of pulling off such an act successfully. This coupled with the fact that the intelligence system in Kenya currently is “leaking very badly” makes it highly unlikely that such an evil plan would succeed.
Naturally very few people will take such claims seriously. Not when everybody is now very emotionally involved in supporting their preferred presidential candidates and every bit of information is analyzed in terms of which side it is hurting and whose propaganda it is.
The truth about the information I have just revealed from highly impeccable sources, is that the biggest loser in it all will be Kenya and the ordinary folk in Kenya. NOT ODM or PNU or ODM-K which by the way are all the same thing.
Let me repeat that I have often said here that unless we can face the past and deal with the ghosts of that past, we will always leave ourselves vulnerable to history repeating itself in a most undesirable manner. We cannot ignore the past and expect the future to be bright. Political assassinations of the past MUST be addressed and resolved.
It is my sincere hope that what I am about to say will be received in the same spirit because it is bigger than petty partisan politics. It is more important than PNU and more important than ODM, ODM-Kenya and any other political party for that matter.
Let me also emphasize that it has nothing to do with tribalism. The truth is that greedy politicians have always managed to rally their tribesmen around themselves in their grand mission to enrich themselves and to destroy any obstacle standing in their way. This appeal to the tribe has always worked like magic. For instance nobody talks about Anglo Leasing any more because the widely held view by those supporting PNU is that there is a bigger enemy that has to be dealt with first. Little do they know that this election is all about retaining power so as to continue with the plan of personal enrichment and more Anglo Leasing by certain individuals in the current government. It has nothing to do with our poor Kikuyu brothers, some of whom have suffered more than other communities in Kenya, losing scores of relatives who basically died for nothing.
In the same way, Tom Mboya was NOT assassinated by the Kikuyus and neither was Robert Ouko bumped off by the Kalenjins. NO!!! This dirty work was carried out by individuals who fell back on their tribes for support after their evil mission was accomplished.
For some time now, there have been rumours (mainly brushed aside by most wise know-all analysts) about an impending political assassination. Interestingly this rumour has been strongest amongst security personnel (which should tell you a lot.)
The reason why many people do not take such rumours seriously is because they assume that it is all Domo and ODM propaganda. My enquiries have revealed a totally different chilling picture.
For starters, to date nobody has been able to explain the mystery of the Artur brothers and their real mission in the country. Impeccable sources recently revealed that they were brought in to “clean up” and that their mission was to assassinate a certain list of prominent Kenyans. The identity of the two well known personalities who brought them into the country left me thunderstruck and even I am frightened to name them here.
These same individuals have not abandoned their “cleaning up ideas.” In recent times some Israelis have been recruited to explore the same option amongst other options. Some of these “other options” being explored will make any right thinking Kenyan sick to the pit of their stomach. But admittedly it is a strategy that many politicians have pulled off very successfully in the past both locally and elsewhere. The option is to assassinate a senior person within PNU and then blame it on the ODM crowd.
My prayer is that the individuals involved in this evil should abandon their plans, no matter how desperate they may be.
What should really worry Kenyans is the fact that powerful forces behind the scenes have not been happy with recent political developments and their plans to influence the forthcoming polls seem to have been frustrated with everything going wrong. That fact should make every sensitive, intelligent Kenyan very worried indeed because the most likely thing that would happen is for these guys to pull off some desperate measure that will leave Kenya in chaos.
Mercifully experts in this macabre business believe that most of the individuals currently involved are incapable of pulling off such an act successfully. This coupled with the fact that the intelligence system in Kenya currently is “leaking very badly” makes it highly unlikely that such an evil plan would succeed.
Naturally very few people will take such claims seriously. Not when everybody is now very emotionally involved in supporting their preferred presidential candidates and every bit of information is analyzed in terms of which side it is hurting and whose propaganda it is.
The truth about the information I have just revealed from highly impeccable sources, is that the biggest loser in it all will be Kenya and the ordinary folk in Kenya. NOT ODM or PNU or ODM-K which by the way are all the same thing.
Let me repeat that I have often said here that unless we can face the past and deal with the ghosts of that past, we will always leave ourselves vulnerable to history repeating itself in a most undesirable manner. We cannot ignore the past and expect the future to be bright. Political assassinations of the past MUST be addressed and resolved.
The PNU MOU That Nobody Is Talking About
Guest column by Kijana M. Kibisu
One question that has refused to go away is why the leader of the official opposition party would abandon his constitutional role to support the re-election of a sitting head of state. Historians tell us that this unprecedented action has already Uhuru a place in the Guinness Book of Records.
What historians forget to add is that Uhuru's move took months of negotiations with the current regime. In a series of meetings brokered by Central Province old guard, John Michuki, Njenga Karume and Kibaki's Muthaiga golf club friends, Uhuru was prevailed upon not only to abandon his plans of running for the top post in 2007 but also to reunite KANU by making peace with Nicholas Biwott's New KANU. Further, he was asked to keep a decent distance from Raila's Odinga's ODM. These discussions culminated in the signing of a secret MoU between Kibaki and Uhuru. So what was Uhuru promised in return?
By agreeing to support Kibaki's PNU, KANU was allowed the privilege of preserving its identity within the umbrella party. While other parties were being pressurized to accept joint nomination under PNU, KANU was exempted. The second part of the MoU dealt with campaign funds.
The president agreed to underwrite KANU's campaign costs in this year's elections (the party received 50m shillings just to participate in PNU's launch). The third and most important aspect of the MoU dealt with Kibaki succession plan. In this regard, Kibaki promised to use all state resources at his disposal to ensure Uhuru's victory in 2012 elections. For a while, Central Province leaders and strategists have focused their attention on a succession plan that would ensure retention of power in the region.
Although names like George Saitoti, Martha Karua, and Kiraitu Murungi have been bandied on and off, Uhuru is increasingly seen as the region's crème de la crème. Not only is he young, savvy and untainted by pervasive corruption, Uhuru comes from the well known Kenyatta family that has immense wealth. Kibaki's current and rather spirited campaign is therefore more than a just fight for a second five-year term. It is a battle to ensure that power is retained in Central Province until 2022, at least! This was, in essence, the MoU between Uhuru and Kibaki. Indeed, Uhuru has publicly admitted this strategy (without divulging its essential details) when he met with angry KANU supporters to try and assuage their anger over his unilateral decision to offer KANU's support to Kibaki.
In the meantime and even as Kenyans sing and dance their hearts out in support of their favourite political parties, Kibaki and his Central Province friends are busy selling off public assets to themselves at throw away prices. Hiding behind persistent calls for privatization by Bretton Woods's institutions, they are wasting no time at all in disposing of ALL public assets. By the time power passes into the hands of others in 2022 (but preferably later), nothing but 'bare bones' will be left. This is why the thought of this well thought out plan being disrupted by Raila and his ODM party evokes so much anger and panic in Central Kenya. The 'good work' that Kibaki started in 2002 is not done yet, you know. Another 5 (but preferably 15) years are needed to complete the work! What you may not know is that this good work is consolidation of both political and economic power in one region.
The concept of devolution of political and economic power away from the Centre (another name for Central Province), is clearly inimical to the grand plan referred to above. The idea is that once the plan is implemented, everybody else (mainly from Western, Coast, Rift Valley and NE provinces) could only be employees (not owners) of former public (but now private) companies owned by the new super rich elite. Millions of others would be tenants in Nairobi offices and houses owned by the same group. However, this plan would come a cropper if new economic centers (in Kakamega, Kwale, Busia, Garissa or Narok) were to spring up through the devolution or ugatuzi arrangement. Suddenly, property value in Nairobi might come tumbling down. Cheap labour, mainly from Western Kenya and parts of Eastern that keeps Nairobi's economy running would vanish overnight.
Why would someone from Sabatia take up an askari job and live in a mabati shack in Nairobi for just 200 shillings a day? It is also easy to imagine what might happen if devolved regional administrations decided to build or upgrade airports in Kisumu, Busia or build cold storage centers in North Eastern. Suddenly, horticultural and livestock produce from these regions would find their way into the same external markets that are currently dominated by Central Kenya farmers. To these folks, ugatuzi is clearly an idea whose time has not come.
This year's election is perhaps the most important election in Kenya's history. The outcome will determine whether or not the Grand Power Plan outlined above succeeds. By re-electing Kibaki, Kenyans can forget about any meaningful change for another 15-20 years.
Kijana M. Kibisu works for an international think tank in Nairobi.
One question that has refused to go away is why the leader of the official opposition party would abandon his constitutional role to support the re-election of a sitting head of state. Historians tell us that this unprecedented action has already Uhuru a place in the Guinness Book of Records.
What historians forget to add is that Uhuru's move took months of negotiations with the current regime. In a series of meetings brokered by Central Province old guard, John Michuki, Njenga Karume and Kibaki's Muthaiga golf club friends, Uhuru was prevailed upon not only to abandon his plans of running for the top post in 2007 but also to reunite KANU by making peace with Nicholas Biwott's New KANU. Further, he was asked to keep a decent distance from Raila's Odinga's ODM. These discussions culminated in the signing of a secret MoU between Kibaki and Uhuru. So what was Uhuru promised in return?
By agreeing to support Kibaki's PNU, KANU was allowed the privilege of preserving its identity within the umbrella party. While other parties were being pressurized to accept joint nomination under PNU, KANU was exempted. The second part of the MoU dealt with campaign funds.
The president agreed to underwrite KANU's campaign costs in this year's elections (the party received 50m shillings just to participate in PNU's launch). The third and most important aspect of the MoU dealt with Kibaki succession plan. In this regard, Kibaki promised to use all state resources at his disposal to ensure Uhuru's victory in 2012 elections. For a while, Central Province leaders and strategists have focused their attention on a succession plan that would ensure retention of power in the region.
Although names like George Saitoti, Martha Karua, and Kiraitu Murungi have been bandied on and off, Uhuru is increasingly seen as the region's crème de la crème. Not only is he young, savvy and untainted by pervasive corruption, Uhuru comes from the well known Kenyatta family that has immense wealth. Kibaki's current and rather spirited campaign is therefore more than a just fight for a second five-year term. It is a battle to ensure that power is retained in Central Province until 2022, at least! This was, in essence, the MoU between Uhuru and Kibaki. Indeed, Uhuru has publicly admitted this strategy (without divulging its essential details) when he met with angry KANU supporters to try and assuage their anger over his unilateral decision to offer KANU's support to Kibaki.
In the meantime and even as Kenyans sing and dance their hearts out in support of their favourite political parties, Kibaki and his Central Province friends are busy selling off public assets to themselves at throw away prices. Hiding behind persistent calls for privatization by Bretton Woods's institutions, they are wasting no time at all in disposing of ALL public assets. By the time power passes into the hands of others in 2022 (but preferably later), nothing but 'bare bones' will be left. This is why the thought of this well thought out plan being disrupted by Raila and his ODM party evokes so much anger and panic in Central Kenya. The 'good work' that Kibaki started in 2002 is not done yet, you know. Another 5 (but preferably 15) years are needed to complete the work! What you may not know is that this good work is consolidation of both political and economic power in one region.
The concept of devolution of political and economic power away from the Centre (another name for Central Province), is clearly inimical to the grand plan referred to above. The idea is that once the plan is implemented, everybody else (mainly from Western, Coast, Rift Valley and NE provinces) could only be employees (not owners) of former public (but now private) companies owned by the new super rich elite. Millions of others would be tenants in Nairobi offices and houses owned by the same group. However, this plan would come a cropper if new economic centers (in Kakamega, Kwale, Busia, Garissa or Narok) were to spring up through the devolution or ugatuzi arrangement. Suddenly, property value in Nairobi might come tumbling down. Cheap labour, mainly from Western Kenya and parts of Eastern that keeps Nairobi's economy running would vanish overnight.
Why would someone from Sabatia take up an askari job and live in a mabati shack in Nairobi for just 200 shillings a day? It is also easy to imagine what might happen if devolved regional administrations decided to build or upgrade airports in Kisumu, Busia or build cold storage centers in North Eastern. Suddenly, horticultural and livestock produce from these regions would find their way into the same external markets that are currently dominated by Central Kenya farmers. To these folks, ugatuzi is clearly an idea whose time has not come.
This year's election is perhaps the most important election in Kenya's history. The outcome will determine whether or not the Grand Power Plan outlined above succeeds. By re-electing Kibaki, Kenyans can forget about any meaningful change for another 15-20 years.
Kijana M. Kibisu works for an international think tank in Nairobi.
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