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Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The Amazing Kumekucha Predictions

Regulars of Kumekucha have noted that nine out of ten times, I tend to correctly predict exactly what is going to happen next. My analysis which most readers start by disagreeing with, always end up being spot on. I am not one to brag; rather I wanted to give our numerous new readers a little background before I dive into today’s rather detailed post.

Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.

- When everybody else was calling political analyst Muahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in th event that he was defeated.

- Kumekucha kept on calling the coming elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right.

- In probably the most ominous post ever in this blog, on the even of the election Kumekucha I openly shared my fears on the elections and the big danger that lay ahead for Kenyans. Youi can read the post for yourself here.

There is really no big deal here. I believe 1,000 per cent that we are all prepared for certain times and to accomplish certain tasks during our lives. The trick is to listen to your inner voice and don’t ask too many questions.

It amazes me how from the launch of this blog, I have always found myself discussing the issue of the injustices committed against the Luo community in this country and the fact that many of their sons have been murdered. We have repeatedly said here that unless this injustices were addressed, they were a time bomb waiting to explode. I am greatly distressed over what has happened in our country but I dare say that somebody who has been reading Kumekucha over the last two years understands the issues much better that many other Kenyans. And I DON’T say that with a single iota of pride in me. Anybody else would have been prepared.

It is with this in mind that I will attempt to answer my reader’s question about what we should expect in Kenya over the next year or so.

We have suffered so much bad news in recent times so let me start with the good news.

Kenya will emerge from this crisis, a united nation and stronger that it has ever been. Certain “proud” tribes with a strong superiority complex will have a much deeper respect for others and we shall greatly thrive in our diversity. Kenya shall; have a new constitution which will give much more power to the common man and the horrors of the Kroll report and grand corruption where a handful of people own the nation will be a thing of the past. What will follow will be such immense economic growth and development that other countries in Africa and beyond will envy Kenya and wonder what it is about this country called Kenya.

But what scares me is the bridge that we have to cross to reach that Canaan.

Currently the divide between the rich and the desperate is very pronounced. In fact we have three different groups of people in Kenya with very different aspirations at the moment.

Firstly, the rich wonder why the peasant savages are slaughtering each other ) even if they have been paid to do so). They are desperate that things should go back to normal as soon as possible so that they can go back to their previous life and continue to make their money and do their deals. Some good folks in this group believe that if only Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga can sit down and agree to share power, everything will go back to normal and they will be able to have their old life back. Many of the people in this group have made arrangements of where in the world they are going to live if the situation continues the way it is currently.

Then we have Kenya’s know-it-all middle class folks. They are eager for this crisis to end as soon as possible so that they can go back to their old comfortable life. Some people in this group have been laid off and are very angry at either Raila or Kibaki depending on which side of the political divide they fall. Many of the people in this group are regular readers of this blog and are the owners of the very opinionated, biased and sometimes uninformed comments that they leave in this blog. Some of the wealthier middle class Kenyans view this whole business as a game of sorts, that they have to win.

The third group which has the vast majority is the group I will call the desperados. These are the ordinary Kenyans or ordinary Mwananchi, if you like. The problem is that most Kenyans in the other two classes do not understand these folks and neither are they interested in understanding the. This is one of the reasons why we are in the mess we are in today. Fascinatingly despite the hardships, deaths etc. there guys do not want the current crisis to be resolved too quickly. Many of those involved in violence have never been gainfully employed and would love for the violence to drag on for months and will in fact do anything for this to happen. Others are being fed in refugee camps and for the first time in a long time do not have to worry themselves sick about where their next meal is going to come from. I dare say that some of them are feeding much better now than they have ever fed in their entire lives. Very sad but also very true. This the cheap labor from which the filthy rich in Kenya have been able to make their fortunes from. This group dreams of genuine change in Kenya and a new political dispensation that will give them a fighting chance.

In my next post I make my predictions of what Kenyans can expect.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chris,
Are you refering to me in your second categoty? Anyhow, I forsee Kenya emerging from this crisis stronger than before. I have always told my friends that this crisis not only divides us now, but also provides us with the impetus for long lasting unity. Let us hate Kikuyus, let us hate Luos, let us hate Kalenjins, let us hate Kisiis, let us hate Kambas and let us hate all other tribes that I have not enumarated. But, at the end of the day, I want to be able to go back to Karatina, Kisumu, Eldoret and ofcourse Machakos. I can not fathom not visiting these areas. War-mongers like Nyachae from my community perfected arrongance but guess how desperate he must be feeling left out in the current anarchy by his 70 year old agemates. We the Kisii people taught him a lesson by shutting him out even with the threat of his militia - chinkororo.

Long live Kenya. We shall prevail.

Obuya.

papa plus said...

Not to pre-empt your analysis and predictions of what is to come for Kenya but my view is that Kenya needs a real awakening to its state of mind and moral attitude towards itself and others. I say this because I was surprised at the reactions from the election shananigans to put it mildly. Now I like to think that am not a tribalist so PNU fans bare with me.

I called a good friend of mine some years back when Anglo leasing and Githongo happened. It was xmas time and with Kibaki at state lodge mombasa partying and eating, the news came that folks in the north were experiencing hunger ergo the dog food offer by a white lady which GK turned down as an insult. Anyway, my friend's reaction was that what else is new in the north? They have always been hungry.
That remark shocked me.
It was completely devoid of empathy and the sense of "us" as a nation. And mind you, my friend is my age, a doctor, and has been exposed to the developed world.

Fast forward to Kivuitu's antics and the swearing in and GSU at KICC and black outs... I called another friend, to see how they were doing. The answer I got was that they were ok, celebrating the New year, and that there was a little tension because of the ODM loss. She ended by wishing me a very Ha P NU year!
Again completely devoid of empathy. 800 dead, bullet riddled, chared, beheaded, butchered bodies later, I ask is this the little tension she was talking about?

Rwanda happened and we all saw the movies and documentaries and books. But we never learned anything. You are right when you talk about poverty disparity in Kenya. This is where the problem lies. We are not going to see the promised land if this issue is not adressed. Kivuitu and ECK damaged the integrity of the voting process and no one has faith in the process. A lot of apathy will follow, folks will opt to stay home instead of vote - just like during the Moi era.

I don't see any relief in sight in a long, long time. But I could be wrong.

Omuntu said...

CHRIS,

For once I'm glad to agree with you..maybe this unity thing you've predicted is already starting...I dunno.

I'm glad you mentioned the fact of the Luo leaders not making it. I'm not Luo, but I've come to see and wonder that for some reason, the REAL prominent Luo leaders never make it far, and It's sad.

It's not only sad for the Luo community but also sad for kenya as a whole. Look at Tom Mboya, brilliant guy, who was loved across the nation from kyuks to Luos, to everyone else, although he was deeply hated by Jaramogi- I dunno why. He eventually died.
Then Look at Dr Robert Ouko, brilliant man, kenya needs such leaders. we all know what ahppened to him.

You know it's as if there's some dark forces out there who never want these real Luo leaders to emerge.

I also think there's a whole lot of more capable Luo leaders who are just hiding in the background , in the comfort of their private businesses or careers who have read the writings on the wall and who dare not venture to any visible leadership within the Luo community.

I also feel vernacular Languages should be discouraged. I know people will give me heat fro this but at the end of the day when you sit down and really think about it, you see that this is the root cause of most of our problems.

However, we should also take cues and learn from india. It's a democracy with many more "tribes" than us and they do it somehow, plus they have the caste system which makes it even more complex. Actually the caste system may make it simpler for them to live together coz people know their place in society and thus cannot dare that.

koros said...

Chris i agree with, i have been a regular visitor to this blog and i know you are always at the point. The damage and world attention kenya has been exposed is enough to change the counry for the good. Kenya will emerge very strong and more democratic and a new eck will be constituted in which it will be very hard to rigged election in new kenya. Look the world best and true democraries were born after a bad civil wars among its citizens i hope kenya will be the next one in line after the mess we have seen.GOD BLESS KENYA

Anonymous said...

Two things.
one,
You, Kumekucha, are quite opinionated. Whether your ideas are born of fact, that is for you to know and for me to wonder.
Two
You have been luck with those predictions. Don't count your chicks before they hatch.

ToneLoc said...

You are way too simplistic. I take issue with the concepts: -

(a) the rich who don't know.

Many of Kenya's rich supported and financed Kibaki's campaign. I believe some of them must have known about the probable consequences of a rigged election, and thought that they would contain the mess.

(b) the middle-class who wouldn't care, as long as they get paid their salaries.

Many of the worst hate-mongers on the Internet, even the war-mongers, are middle-class folk. In private discussions, there is bitterness.

(c) lower class folk who are victims.

Lower class folks have grievances related to land, social restrictions on freedom to live and do business, treatment at work, etc. Thus they are some of the most violent people in this madness. They are not simple victims. Some are tribalists.

Anonymous said...

Am a Ugandan who has watched the tragic events in your country with sadness!! I need to warn you that the killings,violence,disruption of communities,are very difficult to recover from. We grew up under Amins reign of terror which ended amost 30 years ago but still generates passionate debate from time to time
The leaders and anyone who cares for Kenya must quickly find a solution for the poor young people who have been out in streets leading the fights otherwise it is going to take alon long timefor recovery.
Theres hope even in such tragic circumstances.Last night on sky news i saw two injured young men sleeping on the same bed in Naivasha hospital from the two trbes that the leaders have spent their excuse for politics,alienating.
We are praying for yuo.

Anonymous said...

One of the reasons why so many Kenyans visit this blog is to read fair and balanced analysis like this one posted by Chris .

I don't think anyone takes the likes of Phil/ Taabu seriously knowing very well that they are biased towards their parties. Hear no evil and see no evil.

All that these bloggers do is whip up emotions thus evoke many replies on their posts. Thanks chris for being fair and balanced and for this wonderful blog which we use to express our boiling emotions rather than take to the streets.

Of course Kenya will emerge from this crisis stronger and it's up to our leaders to bang their heads together since time is of the essence.

Long live Kenya!

Anonymous said...

Chris,
Sorry I've become a real pessimist in the case of Kenya, but not without a good reason.
1) The group that suffers from Superiority complex is not about to change. This arrogance cannot be trimmed down by just mass action- i wonder what more drastic steps are needed??
2)I doubt Mr. Annan will achieve much with our stiff necked brothers and sisters- I wish him all the best though.
3) From a x-tian perspective which could have been our best hope yet- we do not have any x-tians in Kenya any more just tribal church leaders and church goers. How can we expect God to be selective, he cannot hear our prayers bcoz they are overcoated with tribal arrogance.
4) Since we seem to be unable to solve our problems like sane pple the only other options are a free for all or military take over as suggested by some.
- Being Africa what is the Military takes over and refuses to hand back to civilians?
Will we really emerge stronger when I'm afraid to declare my names in full yet I never applied to belong to this or that tribe?
-How can we be stronger if you cannot venture out of yr comfort zone( read ancestral origin?)
-Personally I'm afraid if we have to emerge stronger we indeed have a very long way to go, I hope we are prepared?

A Scribe said...

There is no such thing as tribalism in Kenya in the sense of any hate, favor, prejudice etc resulting from tribal identities.

What for example, defines a Kikuyu? What are the universal characteristics of a kikuyu person?

I guarantee you cannot list many beyond language and the sound of their last names. So if language and nomenclature is the only thing that can help us pick out a Kikuyu in a line up of 42, then to hate a kikuyu means to hate WHAT HE IS and what he is mainly is his language and his name, if we chose not to look at him as a Kenyan.

What then is there to hate in the Kikuyu language? As horrendous sounding as the name Wakihiko is, what is there to elicit such passionate hate as to result to the acts that we are witnessing today?

There is no such thing as tribalism. Beyond the fact that Kalenjins produce good runners and their names have the Che's and the Kip's there is not much else that a Kikuyu can tell you about a kalenjin. So what is there for a Kikuyu to hate in a Kalenjin?

Curiously, inject politics in tribe and now you have a different animal. if what we are witnessing is "tribal warfare", kikuyus would never have worked with Luos during the Nyayo era since tribal hatred should be a constant outside the influence of politics (if that is all it was) unless a "tribal truce" is called.

It is all about politics.

There is therefore no need to abolish our native tongues or "tone down" our diversities since that is not where the problem is.

bloggeratti said...

CHRIS

One thing about all Kenyan communities is that they have cultural stereotypes, some quite derogatory.

Also, through history, these communities have suffered from one form of oppression or other, from either colonialists or successive goverments.

Maybe that's what has relegated Africans to a state of permanent complaints with no sense of forging ahead. Considering we are on the same page, oppression-wise, I think it's high time we quit whining and move on.

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