Regulars of Kumekucha have noted that nine out of ten times, I tend to correctly predict exactly what is going to happen next. My analysis which most readers start by disagreeing with, always end up being spot on. I am not one to brag; rather I wanted to give our numerous new readers a little background before I dive into today’s rather detailed post.
Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.
- When everybody else was calling political analyst Muahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in th event that he was defeated.
- Kumekucha kept on calling the coming elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right.
- In probably the most ominous post ever in this blog, on the even of the election Kumekucha I openly shared my fears on the elections and the big danger that lay ahead for Kenyans. Youi can read the post for yourself here.
There is really no big deal here. I believe 1,000 per cent that we are all prepared for certain times and to accomplish certain tasks during our lives. The trick is to listen to your inner voice and don’t ask too many questions.
It amazes me how from the launch of this blog, I have always found myself discussing the issue of the injustices committed against the Luo community in this country and the fact that many of their sons have been murdered. We have repeatedly said here that unless this injustices were addressed, they were a time bomb waiting to explode. I am greatly distressed over what has happened in our country but I dare say that somebody who has been reading Kumekucha over the last two years understands the issues much better that many other Kenyans. And I DON’T say that with a single iota of pride in me. Anybody else would have been prepared.
It is with this in mind that I will attempt to answer my reader’s question about what we should expect in Kenya over the next year or so.
We have suffered so much bad news in recent times so let me start with the good news.
Kenya will emerge from this crisis, a united nation and stronger that it has ever been. Certain “proud” tribes with a strong superiority complex will have a much deeper respect for others and we shall greatly thrive in our diversity. Kenya shall; have a new constitution which will give much more power to the common man and the horrors of the Kroll report and grand corruption where a handful of people own the nation will be a thing of the past. What will follow will be such immense economic growth and development that other countries in Africa and beyond will envy Kenya and wonder what it is about this country called Kenya.
But what scares me is the bridge that we have to cross to reach that Canaan.
Currently the divide between the rich and the desperate is very pronounced. In fact we have three different groups of people in Kenya with very different aspirations at the moment.
Firstly, the rich wonder why the peasant savages are slaughtering each other ) even if they have been paid to do so). They are desperate that things should go back to normal as soon as possible so that they can go back to their previous life and continue to make their money and do their deals. Some good folks in this group believe that if only Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga can sit down and agree to share power, everything will go back to normal and they will be able to have their old life back. Many of the people in this group have made arrangements of where in the world they are going to live if the situation continues the way it is currently.
Then we have Kenya’s know-it-all middle class folks. They are eager for this crisis to end as soon as possible so that they can go back to their old comfortable life. Some people in this group have been laid off and are very angry at either Raila or Kibaki depending on which side of the political divide they fall. Many of the people in this group are regular readers of this blog and are the owners of the very opinionated, biased and sometimes uninformed comments that they leave in this blog. Some of the wealthier middle class Kenyans view this whole business as a game of sorts, that they have to win.
The third group which has the vast majority is the group I will call the desperados. These are the ordinary Kenyans or ordinary Mwananchi, if you like. The problem is that most Kenyans in the other two classes do not understand these folks and neither are they interested in understanding the. This is one of the reasons why we are in the mess we are in today. Fascinatingly despite the hardships, deaths etc. there guys do not want the current crisis to be resolved too quickly. Many of those involved in violence have never been gainfully employed and would love for the violence to drag on for months and will in fact do anything for this to happen. Others are being fed in refugee camps and for the first time in a long time do not have to worry themselves sick about where their next meal is going to come from. I dare say that some of them are feeding much better now than they have ever fed in their entire lives. Very sad but also very true. This the cheap labor from which the filthy rich in Kenya have been able to make their fortunes from. This group dreams of genuine change in Kenya and a new political dispensation that will give them a fighting chance.
In my next post I make my predictions of what Kenyans can expect.