The question on everybody’s mind is when will the current crisis end?
My answer: Not quickly enough. As you read this my firm belief is that the peace of Kenya is now out of the hands of the two major protagonists, namely the MP for Othaya Hon Mwai Kibaki and the MP for Langata Hon Raila Odinga. PNU are nervously cheering on Mungiki and ODM are nervously cheering on the Kalenjin, Luo and Luhya militia. Both parties hope that these violent groups will help them achieve their objectives. What they don’t seem to realize is that even if they sign an agreement today, ending the current violence will be very difficult. You see the problem with violence is that it begets more violence and it becomes an endless spiral or bottomless pit of violence and more violence. The truth is that negotiations should involve representatives of ordinary Kenyans. Back to answering the question. The violence will drag on for a number of weeks at the very least and for a couple of months at the most. It all depends on how quickly those involved in the negotiations move to address the core underlying issues that are the cause of the violence and were only triggered by what many saw as a stolen election.
To understand the three classes of Kenyans and what they wish for, please read my previous post.
What will happen to the economy?
Finance minister Amos “the stock exchange is not a fish market” Kimunya said with a straight face the other day that the Kenyan economy will hardly feel the effects of the violence if a quick agreement is reached in the ongoing negotiations. He even said that rebuilding and repairing the mess will spur growth.
One does not need to be an economist to realize that this cock and bull story is rubbish. The truth is that the Central bank has been making every effort to shore up the shilling by flooding the market with dollars in a vain attempt to ensure that their well laid plan do not change. But even the Central bank has so many dollars and no more.
Any day now we will see the shilling in a free fall against major foreign currencies like the dollar. I am told that a packet of maize flour is over Kshs 100/- in Malindi. This is just a sign of things to come. But what is even more worrying is the threat of serious hunger. Remember that the houses in the Rift Valley were not the only things that were being set on fire. Acres of maize and other foods were also being set on fire. If it is true that the Rift Valley is the bread basket of the nation, then we know what to expect, don’t we? Remember that even if the peace talks yield fruit quickly, this will help but it will not bring back the burnt food. Brace yourself for a weaker shilling and also to pay very high prices for food.
Read what experts say about the food situation in Kenya
What will happen politically?
Kenyans will end up with the many reforms that they have yearned for including a new constitution. However the sad question that keeps on nagging at me is that how much blood of Kenyans will pay for this? Actually only one man can begin to have any idea when it comes to answering this question. And that’s the MP for Othaya who currently wields the immense powers of the presidency of Kenya.