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Saturday, January 19, 2008

How Long Can Mwai Kibaki Survive?

The angry reaction from a section of suspect readers of this blog illustrates the current mood in State House perfectly.

Why do I call the readers of a blog suspect? For the simple reason that their behaviour is bizarre to say the least. Their comments clearly suggest that they abhor and strongly disagree with the content in this blog. Ordinarily when you do not like something that you see on the web, you move on. Time is precious. And yet this group of readers have stayed on, saying everything they know how to discredit every story published here. They have refused to leave. Make your own conclusions as to who they really are and what their real objective is.

When I re-introduced comment moderation yesterday, this group was extremely angry. Threats poured in as I moderated and I deleted most of them. It was easy to sense the frustration at the fact that things did not go their way. The carefully and well thought out damage they had planned for the most popular Kenyan blog had been thwarted.

The mood is the same inside Mwai Kibaki’s State house as handlers scramble to find a way to keep the Kibaki administration going for another couple of months. Their plan to enforce the daylight vote theft has met with much stronger resistance than they had imagined. Despite the largest deployment of security forces countrywide in the history of the country, the situation is much worse than it was on 30th December, the ill-fated day when a few individuals inside State House decided to bite the bullet and execute a broad day light robbery of the presidential elections.

Still Kibaki hopes against all hope that the whole crisis will somehow blow over and Kenyans and the international community will come to that place where they accept him as their president for the next 5 years. But the Kibaki think tank is up against enormous odds and it is probably dawning on them just how expensive stealing an election can be.

On the political front there is a problem that scares Mwai Kibaki, the economics professor, more than anything else. In fact much more than Raila Odinga and 6 months of mass action. That thing is members of the Kikuyu tribe driven out of their land. Many of our readers here have no interest of history but the colonial government did many things to Africans which they got away with. Things went badly wrong for them when they drove Kikuyus out of their land. You just don’t do that.

This time around the Kikuyu have been driven from their land by members of the Kalenjin tribe. Information reaching this blogger is to the effect that already the reverberations of this land issue are starting to be felt amongst Members of parliament from Kikuyu areas. Chances are high that they will soon start to break ranks with the rest of the community. Kenyans are about to find out just how close and devoted to the land those from the house of Mumbi are. The minute the Kikuyu unity fails, the Kibaki administration will hardly survive a few weeks.

But even if the Kikuyu unity somehow holds, the entire world community has rejected the presidential results. In other words nobody who matters in the world believes that Mwai Kibaki won the presidential vote. What everybody does not seem to agree on is the way forward from this truth. Some say the country is not ready for a re-run. Others say that nothing else can solve this crisis short of another presidential election. Despite the tensions I tend to believe that only this second alternative will work to get the nation out of its’ current crisis.

Meanwhile Raila Odinga and ODM have announced that they have now halted their mass action protest and will now seek other means. Apparently those other means have been leaked out and now most people know that it is going to be some form of economic boycott where ODM will ask its’ supporters to boycott certain products and companies who support the illegal government of Mwai Kibaki. Will this new strategy work? Actually everything depends on execution, but if this plan is carried out well, then it could end up being much more effective than the street protests.

But even as the government has to deal with all these immediate emergencies there is parliament looming ever closer and there is no guarantee that the huge “cash incentives” currently being thrown around will work as was proved by the election of the speaker which the government side lost narrowly despite heavy investment.

Incidentally parliament requires a simple majority to pass a vote of no confidence against the Kibaki government and send the country back to the polls`. Some analysts think that this is unlikely because the sitting MPs would not like to face another expensive campaign where they are not sure of winning. This time, this is not quite true because every member who votes for such a motion will be a hero of the people and will have no problem retaining their seats in the ODM strongholds in such a snap election.

The truth of the matter is that President Kibaki and PNU have lost quite a bit of support after the events of December 30th and ODM and Raila have just been gaining support by the day.

Now concerning money, what many analysts have failed to realize is the huge expenditure that has been used to retain law and order since December 30th. And yet the traditional cash cow of tourism is no more with tourist hotels in Mombasa virtually empty. Tax collection has been at a very low ebb because there are numerous businesses which have not earned any income since before the ill-fated elections. The expenses related to maintaining the peace remain very high.

Experts believe that the government will soon launch instruments of borrowing from the public to get the cash to keep the country going. But one wonders how investors will view a government T-Bill issue in Kenya shillings when it looks like Kenya may end up being another Zimbabwe with hyper inflation in just a few months.

Don’t even mention the expensive exercise of propping up the Kenya shilling that the Central Bank has been busy with in recent times. Predictably when they run out of their forex reserves, the Kenya shilling could well fall like a stone.

So as the pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether this government will make it to 2012, it is simply this; how much longer can Mwai Kibaki survive?

16 comments:

New Kenyan said...

He will be there for 4 more months and we will go to new elections. It will be this (well known) vs this (well knows too) and the arithmetic will work. This fossil called Kibaki has to go. WE never elected him and he doesn't represent us at all. In fact, he was manipulated by the mafia as to how he can survive after stealing the election and now they are cursing themselves. Curse be upon them.

Anonymous said...

I Think your moderation makes a lot of sense. However, I also think that it is worth for you to keep us informed about the incoming hate posts. It is a fact that they are coming in and it is important for people top understand the level of risk this country is taking due to a few crooks at state house. Incitement is a fact of life in Kenya and while it should not be encouraged we also need to know about its level and form.

By the way, what is wrong with the Nations website?

In terms of the shilling, it is not just tourists who are not spending. There is a huge community og NGO and IO's in Nairobi and they will soon stop spending as well. In fact as I understand it from some friends the UN is still not up and running as normal - and Nairobi is a global headquarter; you see the ramifications are huge even if we do not appreciate the cocky attitude of red plates (nor do the new yorkers by the way) - hey, we're all a bit jealous of their fat pays! But they do matter to the economy let's be honest and worried about that.

Pandora

Spencer said...

The truth is coming out bit by bit and very soon this illegit government will crumble! The force and willpower of the people shall prevail. Read 'Countdown to Deception: 30 hours that destroyed Kenya' (http://www.pambazuka.org/actionalerts/comments/count_down_to_deception/) and you will understand why Kibaki should not only be in Othaya as a rejected president but should also be appearing at the International Tribunal facing charges of gross crimes against humanity. I was wondering where the Civil Rights Groups were when Kenyans were demonstrating the last 3 days but I got my answer in their commendable piece of work above! They should now institute private legal proceedings against the ECK comissioners in particular and Senior staff especially ECK’s legal officer, Jemimah Keli

The economic boycotts will work if what I have already seen Kenyans do since yesterday is anything to go by (5 of my friends have already closed their A/Cs with Equity).

If this government is bombarded from all angles it will crumble in 3 months!

Anonymous said...

Try the Nation site again. It has been on and off all day but now seems fine.

Patriot damu

Tobby said...

Just got this and thought to ask if you are aware:

There was tension at Statehouse this morning after it appeared that Lucy Kibaki had landed another hand on a newly elected legislator. This time the victim was none other than renowned lawyer Gitobu Imanyara. It is said that Imanyara retaliated by firing a fist salvo sending Lucy scampering to the floor in front of Mwai Kibaki.
Security men were called in and it is said that some of them punched and kicked Imanyara who was later taken to Nairobi hospital. It is claimed that Mr. Imanyara had been invited to Statehouse by the President to work out a possibility of filing charges against Budalang’i MP, Ababu Namwamba, after his attack on the President in what is now famously known as “The Standing Order Of The 10th Parliament”. The first Lady was pushing for the charges to be filed. However, Mr. Imanyara insisted that it was a waste of time causing an argument and its aftermath.
More on this later…
NEWSBREAKER 17-1-2008

Robert K said...

We're either with you or we're against you. Any criticism is a plot by the government to put the man down. So here goes, I love the blog! Keep up the good work, the Kibaki government must be brought to its knees, long live Raila Odinga, the peoples president

Anonymous said...

I also received several text messages about the Imanyara incident and I'm still waiting to know if its true or not. If Kibaki actually summoned Imanyara to State House to discuss the possibility of filing charges against Namwamba or any othe MP for that matter for incidents that happened on that day in parliament, then Kibaki qualifies to be the most stupid Kenyan alive today. And considering that the is the longest serving MP in the current parliament then he ough to be really ashamed of himself. My layman legal mind reminds me that no charge can be brought against any MP for whatever utterances they spew out in and withing parliament precints. I don't remember this being changed and if so someone please enlighten me.

Kenya nchi yetu said...

Chris, the only reason why people would want to sabotage this blog would be because they are feeling threatened or insecure. These are not people of lesser means. For them to go to the lengths that they are tells me that it is now hurting where it counts. I agree - State House may now be realizing what they have unleashed. I'm sure the incumbents just want people to go back to their lives - which they will. Food has to be put on the table. Children have to go back to school. But I don't believe that Kenyans who feel robbed are going to let it pass this time.

Kenya is Mine too said...

Chris, thanks for all the updates. I stumbled upon this blog exactly a year ago when things were literally going down at the "Ivory Towers" on Kimathi Street, but I digress.

I'd like to request that you post some of the drivel that has been left by the lowlifes trying to destroy the blog. This is so that we can see just how low they can sink in their quest to maintain status quo.

Also at a later date can you post details on the cabal that have Kibaki by the wotsits, and their business activities.

Thanks and keep safe

Anonymous said...

With the idea of economic boycotts, the mass action now includes those unable to attend rallies and if implemented to the letter will bring him down on his knees. There has been cries about the common Mwananchi suffering as a result which is unfortunate but sacrifices have to be made where rights of the people are defiled in broad day light.Keep up the pressure ODM, you are the peoples choice.

Anonymous said...

Moderation or censorship. Boy, you self important propagandaist. There's a great divide between your so called truths and reality. Discord in the house of Mumbi? that's laughable. There's never been any unity in the house of mumbi in the first place, just a realisation on who would make a better president. We've got the past five years to prove it! i know right now you are seething coz its the truth, curious? Read on. The US will never support Raila, not after his ill advised MOU with muslims. the UK wasted their money backing Raila, no more contracts from Kenya for them... there were none anyway. Granted the Kalenjin and the Luo must be pacified, for the sake of Kenya. But the UK led EU backed the wrong horse and four months down the line they'll feel it.
Inflation? Production in the central highlands, Eastern, Central Rift and Coast plus imports should keep that in check. Plummeting dollar also helps. We didn't interupt production as badly as Zimbabwe did and the US would probably not let that happen for two reasons:
1. War on terror. Raila is Qaddafi's pal.
2. Larger East Africa: Stability in Uganda and Rwanda is contingent upon the stability in Kenya.
Kwa Hivyo... meza wembe!

Anonymous said...

If Kibaki was so un popular as you want to claim, over 4million voters(ODM said is an advert he got 4.1million)would not have trsuted him.Again what we are seeing in the so called mass protests are hired goons who want to steal others peoples properties(Kisumu is "finished").Kibaki will be there for the five years and then Kalonzo Musyoka 2012.We will not leave this country in the hands of killers.You talk only of the Kikuyus, my own Luo brothers have been killed in Nairobi, Kisumu and the number now could be over a thousand(thats why Raila was crying).Raila has also realised that propaganda and lies have an end and his continued call for mass action is hurting his people more than anyone is and he fears thenm seeing him for whom he realy is..a tribal worlord out to sacrifice his peoples' blood to get to power.Just like his father, he will die without ever having seen the presidency.KIBAKI AEENDELEE MIAKA TANO NA MUNGU AMBARIKI

Anonymous said...

Raila thinks Kenyans are stupid.I am tired of this talk that Kenyans want Kibaki to step down.Yes lets talk about a third of the country and two thirds wants him to stay.
Raila is the president of the Luo and Kalenjin and Kibaki the rest of the country.His plans to isolate the Kikuyus has backfired.
Economic sabotage is loughable what crap?!!Do the Luos have their own buses?banks etc?let them try and they will starve to death while Raila takes brookside milk(he loves it).If you have ecer listened to the noise of a dying cow, or a lorry loosing power as it goes up the hill then you know that ODM is a spent force.Terrorists must be dealt with

bloggeratti said...

CHRIS,

My opinions on this matter are sure to rub some the wrong way.

Anyway, here goes:

1. My choice for president would be one who quietly guides the system as it chugs along, rather than a blabbermouth who is always on Page 1, issuing one nauseating statement after another.
4 million plus Kenyans voted for Kibaki so all this "step down", "illegal", "not the people's president" cacophony is pure hogwash. I voted for Kibaki not Raila. If Raila is the "people's choice", what does that make me? An animal?

2. I'm not saying my president is entirely innocent. In my view, PNU 'out-stole' ODM on votes, so whoever is on the hot seat isn't entirely innocent as "Safi-kama-pamba" sycophants would have us believe.
So the "You stole the presidency" mass choir isn't exactly made of saints - they did their share of stealing, too.
My argument? ODM better drop the under-dog, puppy dog script and lay their cards on the table - as equal crooks.

3. Boycott shmoycott.
- Equity (ODM's biggest enemy) plans to open a branch in (among many other locations) "102% voter turn-out" Bondo; everything else (the stock market, the dollar, tourism) is on free-fall, though not to irrecoverable proportions.
- Meanwhile, you-know-who's Spectre International stands to lose a fortune if the new gas-cylinder standards come into play
- Further, you-know-who's AMARCO (African Merchant Assurance Co.) can kiss the lucrative Ministry of Defence insurance contract goodbye.

Who will be the biggest loser in the economic boycott? And do you think that (like all true Homo Politicos) they have forgotten what side of their bread is buttered?

Hah!

bloggeratti said...

As you are wondering about Prez. Kibaki's survival, here are some points to ponder on William "Milosevic" Ruto.

1. Word is that a couple of months from now, the verdict on the KQ flight 512 (insured by Warring Willy's African Merchant Assurance Co.) will be out and he will be ordered to pay up big time. Which is rather disturbing coz he does'nt have enough to cover all those affected.

2. Remember Reuben Chesire? Moi's bossom buddy to bits? Who was shoved out of Eldoret North by Ruto (after an election marred by violence)?
Well, word is Willy ought to watch his back, coz both Chesire and Moi got an axe to grind with him.

3. Looks like the honeymoon with ODM leader Raila is similarly coming to an end for obvious reasons.

Anonymous said...

Bull shit! what do you have to say now sucker?

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