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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Is Gallup’s Shocker About A Kibaki Lead True?

One can do all sorts of surveys and polls these days. In fact there is one you can do without leaving your desk—everything is done online. Let me take this opportunity to emphasize to Kumekuchans that the survey I published recently was NOT done in this way. In fact a lot of the data collection I did on my own. Actually I have been traveling a lot over the last few weeks and that is why my posts were so few and irregular then.

This I can tell you with all certainty the Gallup poll is pure rubbish. The problem with the other polls is that they concentrate too much in towns and major trading centres which I noted on my trip this time is heavily populated by people from all corners of the republic and not just the people in the area.

Something else I cam assure you is that Kenyan voters are in a very bad mood indeed and the results on 27th will be very difficult to swallow for many seasoned politicians. The message I got on the ground was very clear. It was;

“You guys somehow fixed the nominations, lets see you fix the elextions on the 27th.”

What pollsters need to tell Kenyans is what has caused the electorate to change their minds so many times as we head to the elections. Then they need to explain how a candidate can lead in six provinces and stil be in a neck to neck battle with his opponent who leads in only one province and has a slight lead in another. It just does not make any sense.

The position with Gallup is that Steadmann claimed the local affiliation which Gallup disputed and so the polls have all along been Steadmann polls. But it seems that Steadmann finally met the stringent requirements of Gallup who have a name to protect and are now the local reps. I’d like to tell the Gallup folks that their name is about to receive a major dent come the 27th of this month.

Still as far as Kenyan voters are concerned Steadmann is a better known name. Gallup means absolutely nothing to most Kenyans.

But what has been worrying opposition ranks the most is the recent utterances by PNU people to the effect that the opposition should e ready to accept the results. Meaning that the election results are already known to some PNU insiders and they show Mwai Kibaki victorious.

Judging from my extensive travels countrywide and my own survey, this is impossibility. It would be easier to tame a full grown crocodile on the Tana River and leave it with your toddler after only a day or two and expect to find her safe and alive than it would be for Kibaki to lead any electon poll in Kenya now or in the near future.

I am not favoring anybody. I am simply stating the cold facts on the ground as they are.

1 comment:

Weider said...

chris- and all ye kumekucha bloggers! please get a copy of tha Bible and turn to Psalm53. God sees all. be calm n chill for the 27th. dont fret about the sponsored opinion polls. GOD LOVES KENYA!!

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