One would have thought that the best strategy for any politician in the 10th parliament who does not get a cabinet position, would be to position themselves in the opposition in readiness for the next general elections which many people believe will be held in 2 years time.
After all going by what has happened in the past, the government always manages to get unpopular sooner or later presenting a “through pass” to any carefully positioned opposition candidate to easily get re-elected into the august house.
But alas, Kenyan politics always has its’ bizarre twists. It is now becoming clearly evident that hardly anybody in the 10th parliament wants to be in the opposition. Virtually all PNU affiliate parties are saying that they are included in the grand coalition and are therefore in government. The same with ODM affiliate parties. And what complicates matters further is that both PNU and ODM are working very hard behind scenes to ensure that they have a parliamentary majority in the house (just in case).
What that means is that contrary to what we are being told, there will hardly be any opposition in the 10th parliament unless something changes drastically. The “opposition” task it seems will be left to the press and the rising power of blogs like Kumekucha but that is hardly the same thing as having a strong opposition in the house.
Forget about the back bench because when all the numbers are in government a back bencher in say ODM or even PNU is of no consequence.
Those who understand Kenyan politics well are fully aware of the reason why there is this mad scramble for government as if there were no political tomorrow. It is simply because most MPs need to recover the cash they spent in the last elections and make a huge profit while thye are at it. The opposition or the back benches is hardly the place to do this. Secondly in the past MPs have been able to make good money in a situation where there is an opposition that threatens to be stronger than government in terms of numbers in the house. This is exactly what the situation was during the hotly contested election for the speaker. However the situation has now been dramatically altered because of the grand coalition between ODM and PNU which means that opportunities to receive hefty bribes to vote one way or the other have been wiped out. What all this does it to leave one prize and one prize alone—being in government.
However what most of the politicians in the 10th parliament have forgotten is that the same “razor” that shaved most of their opponents who missed to return to parliament will be waiting again to shave them barely 2 years from now. The Kenyan public is getting very impatient with their politicians and it seems that most legislators have failed to read the writing on the wall.
Then there is the likelihood that the new constitution which will be passed by parliament will sideline many politicians from “eating” positions. For instance there is a high likelihood that if the Bomas draft is adopted, there will no longer be ministerial or cabinet appointments for MPs. In short the noose is slowly tightening on the unsuspecting and terribly short-sighted legislators in the 10th parliament.
Another interesting development is the gathering storm within ODM over one of the two soon-to-be-created Deputy Prime Minister’s seats. Interestingly the PNU side (which is expected to produce one of the two Deputy Prime Ministers) is also deeply embroiled in a serious struggle for the seat amongst its’ ranks and the names of Uhuru Kenyatta, Martha Karua and George Saitoti have been voiced within the PNU camp as possibles. Even more interesting is a report in a local daily that there was a meeting yesterday at a city hotel attended by Amos Kimunya, Martha Karua and Uhuru Kenyatta to strategize on how one of them can secure the Deputy PM post. But the storm in ODM is huge in comparison to whatever may be brewing in the PNU camp and if it is not handled skillfully could prove to be divisive at a critical time. Rift Valley supporters of the party are of the view that they made the largest sacrifice in fighting for the new political dispensation. The feeling is that they therefore deserve the deputy Prime Minister’s seat much more than Western province where votes were almost split and ODM supporters allowed too much encroachment by PNU. However Ruto’s appointment to the Deputy premiership will deeply disappoint the Luhya community who are holding on to their belief that their man Musalia Mudavadi will be Raila’s anointed heir. It’s a tough call but all factor’s considered, if I were Raila I would appoint William Ruto (don’t want to mess around with the unpredictable Kalenjin at this time) and then retain Mudavadi as “deputy captain” of the party.
There is of course the remote possibility that the problem will be solved for Raila if the 50/50 agreement is enforced which means that the Vice president has to come from ODM and that post would go to Musalia Mudavadi. Incidentally Mudavadi is one character that PNU would be happy to work with.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Thursday, March 06, 2008
What Does Jeff Koinange's K24 Stand For?
Towards the end of last year, a brand new 24 hour news channel was quietly launched into the Kenyan market. Apart from a full page advertisement in the Standard newspaper, there was very little else in terms of promotion.
Today barely 4 months later, this new TV station clearly modeled along the lines of Atlanta based CNN continues to quietly exist.
To be fair, K24 has had its’ moments. Many of these have emerged from their eyewitness news segment that brings breaking news. The idea is to evolve this into some sort of citizen journalism thing where virtually anybody can report from where it is happening. During the troubled times that our country has recently passed through there are many potentially award winning features that have been aired in this segment. One sticks out very clearly on my mind where host jeff Koinange interviewed a German woman in the ruins and ashes of a burnt down children’s orphanage in Eldoret. Apparently what angered locals was the fact that children hailing from different tribes were happily interacting with each other.
It was also on K24 that I saw an intimate interview with ODM’s William Ruto, expertly conducted by Jeff Koinange on the lawns of what is clearly the famous journalists’ favorite hotel, namely the Norfolk Hotel. Koinange used his wide array of skills to ask the controversial legislator every question even his enemies would have loved to ask, and did it with such finesse that there was never a hint of offence on his guests face at any single moment.
There are a lot of other creative news and human interest segments being aired at K24. In brief there are a lot of good things going for this new TV channel owned by Kameme FM owner Rose Kimotho. Clearly its’ strength is Jeff Koinange. Years of experience with CNN and at the very top in International journalism are clearly showing in everything that our very own Jeff Koinange does.
Sadly the big weakness of the new TV station is the fact that Jeff Koinange hardly has any backing to speak of. Indeed the shoddy design graphics and presentation as well as the kind of editing that would cause plenty of laughter in Atlanta, has put off a lot of first time viewers from what is in my view excellent content. Sadly if you look around for views from most Kenyans, the word that keeps on coming up is “amateurish.” Clearly our world today is such that it doesn’t matter what the guy walking into the job interview says, as long as he is not dressed properly. First impressions seem to be everything in our media crowded world. The fact that the great and experienced Jeff Koinange is a presenter alongside other well known names like Eric Latif (formerly of KTN Prime Time) seems to have been neutralized.
The folks at K24 are clearly oblivious of the basic structural issues that they must take care of to really soar.
Currently only Kenyans in Nairobi and it’s close environs are able to receive K24 signals.
There is one other thing that I have noticed. The same thing that happens in numerous enterprises owned by Kikuyus seems to be happening at K24, which is a great pity. In a country that is very ethnic sensitive at the moment, there are too many Kikuyu presenters on K24. It seems that they were not able to find qualified presenters from other communities. Just the kind of thing that would cause people to brand it the Kikuyu 24 news channel.
See also; The Changing Face of Kenyan Television
Today barely 4 months later, this new TV station clearly modeled along the lines of Atlanta based CNN continues to quietly exist.
To be fair, K24 has had its’ moments. Many of these have emerged from their eyewitness news segment that brings breaking news. The idea is to evolve this into some sort of citizen journalism thing where virtually anybody can report from where it is happening. During the troubled times that our country has recently passed through there are many potentially award winning features that have been aired in this segment. One sticks out very clearly on my mind where host jeff Koinange interviewed a German woman in the ruins and ashes of a burnt down children’s orphanage in Eldoret. Apparently what angered locals was the fact that children hailing from different tribes were happily interacting with each other.
It was also on K24 that I saw an intimate interview with ODM’s William Ruto, expertly conducted by Jeff Koinange on the lawns of what is clearly the famous journalists’ favorite hotel, namely the Norfolk Hotel. Koinange used his wide array of skills to ask the controversial legislator every question even his enemies would have loved to ask, and did it with such finesse that there was never a hint of offence on his guests face at any single moment.
There are a lot of other creative news and human interest segments being aired at K24. In brief there are a lot of good things going for this new TV channel owned by Kameme FM owner Rose Kimotho. Clearly its’ strength is Jeff Koinange. Years of experience with CNN and at the very top in International journalism are clearly showing in everything that our very own Jeff Koinange does.
Sadly the big weakness of the new TV station is the fact that Jeff Koinange hardly has any backing to speak of. Indeed the shoddy design graphics and presentation as well as the kind of editing that would cause plenty of laughter in Atlanta, has put off a lot of first time viewers from what is in my view excellent content. Sadly if you look around for views from most Kenyans, the word that keeps on coming up is “amateurish.” Clearly our world today is such that it doesn’t matter what the guy walking into the job interview says, as long as he is not dressed properly. First impressions seem to be everything in our media crowded world. The fact that the great and experienced Jeff Koinange is a presenter alongside other well known names like Eric Latif (formerly of KTN Prime Time) seems to have been neutralized.
The folks at K24 are clearly oblivious of the basic structural issues that they must take care of to really soar.
Currently only Kenyans in Nairobi and it’s close environs are able to receive K24 signals.
There is one other thing that I have noticed. The same thing that happens in numerous enterprises owned by Kikuyus seems to be happening at K24, which is a great pity. In a country that is very ethnic sensitive at the moment, there are too many Kikuyu presenters on K24. It seems that they were not able to find qualified presenters from other communities. Just the kind of thing that would cause people to brand it the Kikuyu 24 news channel.
See also; The Changing Face of Kenyan Television
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Everybody Can NOT Be In Government
Kalonzo And Mungatana Squirm At The Writing On The Wall
Kalonzo Musyoka and one Danston Mungatana are putting up a brave face but the writing is already on the wall, both gentleman are about to be shoved into political oblivion and when the new republic emerges, there will no longer be room for their brand of old style heckler politics.
Apparently the 50/50 sharing between PNU and ODM extends to parastatals and ambassadorial appointments and that must have a lot of people very worried and lacking in sleep at night.
It is already apparent that the slots have suddenly shrunk for PNU supporters so much so that there is talk now of having a colossal cabinet of at least 36, so as to squeeze in at least 18 ministers apiece (rather than just 16). Do the math and put some faces next to the names and you’ll suddenly realize that 18 cabinet positions are extremely few. There is no way they can go round PNU, Narc-Kenya and ODM-Kenya. It is safe to assume that most of the posts will remain within PNU and other affiliate parties will be extremely lucky to get even one. Based on this assumption it will be difficult for Kalonzo “sent hecklers to the funeral of a female colleague’s mother” Musyoka to retain the vice presidency.
But the LSK (Law Society of Kenya) chairman Kong’o Omogeni and the EALS (East African Law Society) President Tom Ojienda had a very clear message for Hon Musyoka yesterday. They told him that the current PNU and ODM agreement over rides any prior covenants that may have been made and Musyoka should take up the leadership of the opposition as the official leader of the opposition.
The lawyers, in a telephone interview with one of the dailies emphasized that a structured opposition was needed and the idea of having everybody in government should be discouraged. The lawyers further advised that those amending the constitution should put a clause allowing parties with less than 30 MPs to form the official opposition and should also be at liberty to form a coalition with other smaller political parties.
Their suggestion will fall in deaf ears because Kalonzo Musyoka’s brand of politics has no manual for operation in a minority weak back bench. Already the minister is squirming and doing everything possible behind the scenes to ensure that he retains the vice presidency. Actually most Kenyans do not realize how desperate the situation is for Mr Musyoka. You see there are a number of people who financed his presidential campaign and usually people with that kind of money do not “invest” where they can reap no returns. What this means is that without the vice presidency, it will not be possible to recover the investment. You see the vice presidency is where certain contracts and other “deals” can be influenced to bring in this return. So if Musyoka is dropped, then these rich gentlemen will be very upset indeed and chances are that they could ask Mr Musyoka himself to take up the burden of paying them back their cash. That is how serious things are.
But what poor Kalonzo Musyoka does not realize is that there are other stake holders who want to see him out of the vice presidency as soon as possible. These stakeholders are the vast majority of voters who voted ODM and consider Mr Musyoka a traitor. The VP has always brushed aside the criticism saying that this was just noise from the Luo supporters of Raila Odinga. However it is now clearly event that Mr Musyoka does not have support from virtually all provinces save half of his own Kamba community. Central supported him only for as long as he could help prop up the PNU government.
Mr Musyoka is known to be a very proud man, and therefore he should just save face early be resigning his position from the vice presidency and save himself the embarrassing situation of being dropped when President Kibaki announces his grand coalition government.
Things are not any better for Mungatana and his Narc-Kenya colleagues. Today they held a meeting to “re-position” themselves as a party and to remind the president that “Narc-Kenya is a very big party and the only party apart from KANU that has grassroots support countrywide.” Those are Mungatana’s words and not mine.
This is really just putting more pressure on President Kibaki for nothing because no matter what he does, there are only so many cabinet seats available.
Come to think of it, a Kalonzo/Mungatana team in the opposition would do just fine.
P.S.
Hundreds of youths held a strange demonstration in Nairobi CBD this morning demanding for the immediate release of suspected Mungiki leader John Maina Njenga who is serving a 5 year jail term for being caught in possession with illegal firearms. They were later dispersed by police and melted into downtown Nairobi where they fought running battles with police along Kirinyaga road and Globe Cinema roundabout.
This is a very worrying development and raises a number of questions. Was this demonstration to announce the resurgence of the group with the imminent ascension to power of Raila Odinga as the Prime Minister? It is difficult to imagine that there are no political interests supporting the Mungiki activities of this morning. While I already know that hardliners in President Kibaki’s inner cabinet are extremely annoyed at recent developments, I have been asking myself the question; what will the hardliners and radicals within PNU do next? It seems that even as I was preparing my piece posing that million shilling question, I have already received my answer. A rather chilling answer I must say.
Kalonzo Musyoka and one Danston Mungatana are putting up a brave face but the writing is already on the wall, both gentleman are about to be shoved into political oblivion and when the new republic emerges, there will no longer be room for their brand of old style heckler politics.
Apparently the 50/50 sharing between PNU and ODM extends to parastatals and ambassadorial appointments and that must have a lot of people very worried and lacking in sleep at night.
It is already apparent that the slots have suddenly shrunk for PNU supporters so much so that there is talk now of having a colossal cabinet of at least 36, so as to squeeze in at least 18 ministers apiece (rather than just 16). Do the math and put some faces next to the names and you’ll suddenly realize that 18 cabinet positions are extremely few. There is no way they can go round PNU, Narc-Kenya and ODM-Kenya. It is safe to assume that most of the posts will remain within PNU and other affiliate parties will be extremely lucky to get even one. Based on this assumption it will be difficult for Kalonzo “sent hecklers to the funeral of a female colleague’s mother” Musyoka to retain the vice presidency.
But the LSK (Law Society of Kenya) chairman Kong’o Omogeni and the EALS (East African Law Society) President Tom Ojienda had a very clear message for Hon Musyoka yesterday. They told him that the current PNU and ODM agreement over rides any prior covenants that may have been made and Musyoka should take up the leadership of the opposition as the official leader of the opposition.
The lawyers, in a telephone interview with one of the dailies emphasized that a structured opposition was needed and the idea of having everybody in government should be discouraged. The lawyers further advised that those amending the constitution should put a clause allowing parties with less than 30 MPs to form the official opposition and should also be at liberty to form a coalition with other smaller political parties.
Their suggestion will fall in deaf ears because Kalonzo Musyoka’s brand of politics has no manual for operation in a minority weak back bench. Already the minister is squirming and doing everything possible behind the scenes to ensure that he retains the vice presidency. Actually most Kenyans do not realize how desperate the situation is for Mr Musyoka. You see there are a number of people who financed his presidential campaign and usually people with that kind of money do not “invest” where they can reap no returns. What this means is that without the vice presidency, it will not be possible to recover the investment. You see the vice presidency is where certain contracts and other “deals” can be influenced to bring in this return. So if Musyoka is dropped, then these rich gentlemen will be very upset indeed and chances are that they could ask Mr Musyoka himself to take up the burden of paying them back their cash. That is how serious things are.
But what poor Kalonzo Musyoka does not realize is that there are other stake holders who want to see him out of the vice presidency as soon as possible. These stakeholders are the vast majority of voters who voted ODM and consider Mr Musyoka a traitor. The VP has always brushed aside the criticism saying that this was just noise from the Luo supporters of Raila Odinga. However it is now clearly event that Mr Musyoka does not have support from virtually all provinces save half of his own Kamba community. Central supported him only for as long as he could help prop up the PNU government.
Mr Musyoka is known to be a very proud man, and therefore he should just save face early be resigning his position from the vice presidency and save himself the embarrassing situation of being dropped when President Kibaki announces his grand coalition government.
Things are not any better for Mungatana and his Narc-Kenya colleagues. Today they held a meeting to “re-position” themselves as a party and to remind the president that “Narc-Kenya is a very big party and the only party apart from KANU that has grassroots support countrywide.” Those are Mungatana’s words and not mine.
This is really just putting more pressure on President Kibaki for nothing because no matter what he does, there are only so many cabinet seats available.
Come to think of it, a Kalonzo/Mungatana team in the opposition would do just fine.
P.S.
Hundreds of youths held a strange demonstration in Nairobi CBD this morning demanding for the immediate release of suspected Mungiki leader John Maina Njenga who is serving a 5 year jail term for being caught in possession with illegal firearms. They were later dispersed by police and melted into downtown Nairobi where they fought running battles with police along Kirinyaga road and Globe Cinema roundabout.
This is a very worrying development and raises a number of questions. Was this demonstration to announce the resurgence of the group with the imminent ascension to power of Raila Odinga as the Prime Minister? It is difficult to imagine that there are no political interests supporting the Mungiki activities of this morning. While I already know that hardliners in President Kibaki’s inner cabinet are extremely annoyed at recent developments, I have been asking myself the question; what will the hardliners and radicals within PNU do next? It seems that even as I was preparing my piece posing that million shilling question, I have already received my answer. A rather chilling answer I must say.
Monday, March 03, 2008
ODM’s Deadly International Media Spin Machine
Go to Google or any search engine and do any search you wish to on the disputed general elections of last year. You will quickly note that the International media seems to be very ODM-friendly. I can assure you that that is no accident. Somebody worked very hard to make that happen.
Now let us not be naïve to start jumping to conclusions here. It is true that the December 2007 general elections were stolen. Ask most 3 or 4 year old Kenyan children and they will tell you so. We all saw it happening live on Television. However the International community didn’t, not really. Many of them were not really paying attention and at least one super power that has since done a 180 degree turn, assisted in that rigging exercise that horribly went wrong. Actually most of the world’s attention at that time was focused on Pakistan where former Prime Minister Mrs Bhutto had just been assassinated.
So when trouble broke out in Kenya, they wanted to know what really happened. The reality in this harsh media dominated world we live in today is that reality is not as important as perception (although the two are related as we shall see later in this post). So it is terribly important that your story is told. And that is the work of spin experts. I personally prefer to call them spin artistes.
The difference between reputable spin artists like ODM’s Salim Lone and a spin quack like Dr Alfred Mutua is one very simple thing. There are those who believe that they can spin anything and there are those who know that to be successful in the long term, it is important that you spin only the truth. You remember the famous president John F. Kennedy quote that ends with; you can’t fool all the people all the time? In fact fake spin doctors like Dr Mutua have always ended up being a liability to their employers.
The other difference is that reputable PR experts (if you prefer to call them that) are noble and will not hesitate to make personal sacrifices. Salim Lone’s life was threatened by somebody a few weeks ago and he would have given the world his story and attracted all the limelight and media attention to hismelf. But at what price? The attention would have effectively been shifted away from his client. So, because he was able to deal with the problem of his personal security, he was determined that the attention of the media remains focused on ODM at a very crucial time leading up to the signing of the historic peace deal last Thursday. It is this kind of character trait that wins the trust of journalists who are crucial allies in any spin effort. In sharp contrast police commissioner Maj Gen Hussein Ali is of the view that the best way to handle the “annoying” media is to talk down at journalists and lecture them while ridiculing as many of their questions as you possible.
You may want to be quick to downplay the achievements of Lone and the ODM spin machine. But there are numerous examples of how things can go dreadfully wrong even for somebody who is justified in what they are trying to do. As you read this, the mention of the name Robert Mugabe brings immediate images of some dictator that has hung onto power for too long. Yet if you do some serious research on the Zimbabwe situation and what led to Mr Mugabe’s controversial land policies you will be shocked. Actually it was all triggered by the UK going back on their word to Mugabe. Or shall we say their failure to honor an MOU they had with Mugabe concerning the land issue. So while Mugabe over-reacted, his side of the story will probably never be told and anyway at this juncture nobody is interested in listening to it. That is the harsh and sad reality of perception.
In other words in the case of Lone, Kenyans owe this man a deep debt for keeping the Kenyan crisis in the right perspective in the eyes of the very influential international media. If that had not happened, the International community would have helped PNU clamp down on dissent and history would have taken a totally different turn.
Fascinatingly the official word from ODM last week was that Salim Lone had left (a Nation article pouring cold water on my exclusive here about Lone’s personal security issues referred to Lone as the former ODM media director). But his replacement, Tony Gacoka has not issued a single press release to the media to date and yesterday Lone was spotted at Orange House doing his old job.
Actually whispers that I had heard last week were to the effect that Lone still retained his client, ODM but was carrying out his duties from New York where he was said to be busy working on the next crucial phase of the ODM spin. Just observe the international support that will pour into Kenya channeled through the office of the Prime minister.
As for Dr Mutua, he’s really just wasting tax payers funds being retained as government spokesman because he is a laughing stock among the media and most Kenyans. I am afraid that usually that means that his clients/employers draw the same sentiments from the public.
Now let us not be naïve to start jumping to conclusions here. It is true that the December 2007 general elections were stolen. Ask most 3 or 4 year old Kenyan children and they will tell you so. We all saw it happening live on Television. However the International community didn’t, not really. Many of them were not really paying attention and at least one super power that has since done a 180 degree turn, assisted in that rigging exercise that horribly went wrong. Actually most of the world’s attention at that time was focused on Pakistan where former Prime Minister Mrs Bhutto had just been assassinated.
So when trouble broke out in Kenya, they wanted to know what really happened. The reality in this harsh media dominated world we live in today is that reality is not as important as perception (although the two are related as we shall see later in this post). So it is terribly important that your story is told. And that is the work of spin experts. I personally prefer to call them spin artistes.
The difference between reputable spin artists like ODM’s Salim Lone and a spin quack like Dr Alfred Mutua is one very simple thing. There are those who believe that they can spin anything and there are those who know that to be successful in the long term, it is important that you spin only the truth. You remember the famous president John F. Kennedy quote that ends with; you can’t fool all the people all the time? In fact fake spin doctors like Dr Mutua have always ended up being a liability to their employers.
The other difference is that reputable PR experts (if you prefer to call them that) are noble and will not hesitate to make personal sacrifices. Salim Lone’s life was threatened by somebody a few weeks ago and he would have given the world his story and attracted all the limelight and media attention to hismelf. But at what price? The attention would have effectively been shifted away from his client. So, because he was able to deal with the problem of his personal security, he was determined that the attention of the media remains focused on ODM at a very crucial time leading up to the signing of the historic peace deal last Thursday. It is this kind of character trait that wins the trust of journalists who are crucial allies in any spin effort. In sharp contrast police commissioner Maj Gen Hussein Ali is of the view that the best way to handle the “annoying” media is to talk down at journalists and lecture them while ridiculing as many of their questions as you possible.
You may want to be quick to downplay the achievements of Lone and the ODM spin machine. But there are numerous examples of how things can go dreadfully wrong even for somebody who is justified in what they are trying to do. As you read this, the mention of the name Robert Mugabe brings immediate images of some dictator that has hung onto power for too long. Yet if you do some serious research on the Zimbabwe situation and what led to Mr Mugabe’s controversial land policies you will be shocked. Actually it was all triggered by the UK going back on their word to Mugabe. Or shall we say their failure to honor an MOU they had with Mugabe concerning the land issue. So while Mugabe over-reacted, his side of the story will probably never be told and anyway at this juncture nobody is interested in listening to it. That is the harsh and sad reality of perception.
In other words in the case of Lone, Kenyans owe this man a deep debt for keeping the Kenyan crisis in the right perspective in the eyes of the very influential international media. If that had not happened, the International community would have helped PNU clamp down on dissent and history would have taken a totally different turn.
Fascinatingly the official word from ODM last week was that Salim Lone had left (a Nation article pouring cold water on my exclusive here about Lone’s personal security issues referred to Lone as the former ODM media director). But his replacement, Tony Gacoka has not issued a single press release to the media to date and yesterday Lone was spotted at Orange House doing his old job.
Actually whispers that I had heard last week were to the effect that Lone still retained his client, ODM but was carrying out his duties from New York where he was said to be busy working on the next crucial phase of the ODM spin. Just observe the international support that will pour into Kenya channeled through the office of the Prime minister.
As for Dr Mutua, he’s really just wasting tax payers funds being retained as government spokesman because he is a laughing stock among the media and most Kenyans. I am afraid that usually that means that his clients/employers draw the same sentiments from the public.
Vicious Power Struggle Begins In Kenya
Is Kalonzo about to lose the vice presidency?
The leadership qualities of one Kalonzo Musyoka were clearly visible for all to see this last Saturday in Ukambani. If you are still of the old school and believe that a strong leader is one who hires people to jeer and intimidate an opponent and perceived threat to yourself at the funeral of her mother, then Kalonzo is quite a brilliant leader.
Actually what we are now seeing are just the initial signs of a vicious power struggle that is beginning to unfold in Kenya between the old school politicians and the new emerging generation of political leaders.
But let me start at the beginning.
On Saturday the political action in Ukambani was at the funeral of the late mother of the MP for Kathiani, Wavinya Ndeti. Before I go any further, let me tell; you a little about this gallant woman (who also happens to be a drop dead beauty “supu” at the age of 39.) I will post an appropriate photograph the moment I get it).
Wavinya managed to beat a very strong field of men to make history as the first woman to win a parliamentary seat in the history of Machakos district. That field of opponents was led by the immediate former MP Kyalo Kaindi who poured money like there was no tomorrow. Just to illustrate to you how things are changing in Kenya; money usually works miracles in Kathiani constituency. But this time, the people took the money and voted differently. All signs are that in Wavinya we are witnessing the emergence of another Charity Ngilu (just remember that you read it first in Kumekucha long before it came to pass). Incidentally Wavinya is a Kamba word that means “the one of power” or “the strong one.”
So back to my story. Hon Wavinya Ndeti was in mourning for her dear beloved late mother and deserved a quiet funeral to bury the woman who brought her to this world. But there was no way that VP Kalonzo Musyoka would allow that to happen. Busloads of people were hired mainly from the Kibwezi area and they arrived at the funeral having been carefully briefed on what to do. Before the graveside service was even done, the onslaught began. It was all kicked off by one of the main financiers of Kalonzo’s presidential campaign, Johnstone Muthama who invited the councilors who were present to “greet” the people. What happened next was that speaker after speaker castigated the likes of poor Wavinya for daring to criticize “the king of Ukambani” and the alleged president in waiting who will easily be elected in 2012 (some pipe dream). Meanwhile the hired jeering mob started making a lot of noise in support of what was being said against Wavinya. Imagine gown men all coming to attack a defenseless woman in mourning.
The whole idea was to scare the rebel MPs back into line. Kalonzo probably figured that he would be able to successfully scare “this young girl.” The very opposite seems to have happened. Wavinya emerged from her baptism of fire to hit back at the Kalonzo supporters and appeared to have gotten substantial support from the neutral mourners.
But the real drama followed later when Kalembe Ndile spoke to the mourners and appealed for calm (after the hired hands had mostly left).
Kalembe told a section of the crowd something that probably explains the unbecoming behavior of the “duly appointed” Vice President of the republic of Kenya. He told a very attentive audience that James Orengo (one of the two men together with AG Amos Wako who drafted last Thursday’s historic agreement) had explained to him the implications of the 50/50 agreement. Kalembe says that he was told that it means that everything has to be shared 50/50. Meaning that if the president is from PNU, then the VP has to be from ODM apparently the agreement even stretches to the appointments of ambassadors and High commissioners. Meaning that if the Ambassador to the US is PNU then the High commissioner to the UK will have to be ODM and so forth.
What this means is that VP Kalonzo (or Kaloozer as some readers here love to call him) is set to join the ranks of Kenya’s short-serving VPs. In other words the man who hires goons to disrupt funerals is about to lose the Vice Presidency. His strategy seems to be to ensure that the whole of Ukambani is firmly behind him so as to make it more difficult for him to be dropped. I leave it to you to judge the wisdom of such a move. But I can tell you that these are old ancient tactics learned from the late Mulu Mutisya a man who never saw the inside of a classroom in his life and yet Kalonzo was a devoted student to the man. I can also authoritatively tell you that Kalonzo does NOT have the support of the whole of Ukambani. Actually the community has been split right down the middle and those against him are probably more than those who are for him.
Fellow Kenyans, what we are seeing is the beginning of a power struggle that will be vicious. Not between the big boys Raila and Kibaki (theirs will pale in comparison) but between politicians from the old school and the impatient new rookies who have come in with clear instructions from the people who elected them. And that is they want change and are sick and extremely tired of the old ways.
The leadership qualities of one Kalonzo Musyoka were clearly visible for all to see this last Saturday in Ukambani. If you are still of the old school and believe that a strong leader is one who hires people to jeer and intimidate an opponent and perceived threat to yourself at the funeral of her mother, then Kalonzo is quite a brilliant leader.
Actually what we are now seeing are just the initial signs of a vicious power struggle that is beginning to unfold in Kenya between the old school politicians and the new emerging generation of political leaders.
But let me start at the beginning.
On Saturday the political action in Ukambani was at the funeral of the late mother of the MP for Kathiani, Wavinya Ndeti. Before I go any further, let me tell; you a little about this gallant woman (who also happens to be a drop dead beauty “supu” at the age of 39.) I will post an appropriate photograph the moment I get it).
Wavinya managed to beat a very strong field of men to make history as the first woman to win a parliamentary seat in the history of Machakos district. That field of opponents was led by the immediate former MP Kyalo Kaindi who poured money like there was no tomorrow. Just to illustrate to you how things are changing in Kenya; money usually works miracles in Kathiani constituency. But this time, the people took the money and voted differently. All signs are that in Wavinya we are witnessing the emergence of another Charity Ngilu (just remember that you read it first in Kumekucha long before it came to pass). Incidentally Wavinya is a Kamba word that means “the one of power” or “the strong one.”
So back to my story. Hon Wavinya Ndeti was in mourning for her dear beloved late mother and deserved a quiet funeral to bury the woman who brought her to this world. But there was no way that VP Kalonzo Musyoka would allow that to happen. Busloads of people were hired mainly from the Kibwezi area and they arrived at the funeral having been carefully briefed on what to do. Before the graveside service was even done, the onslaught began. It was all kicked off by one of the main financiers of Kalonzo’s presidential campaign, Johnstone Muthama who invited the councilors who were present to “greet” the people. What happened next was that speaker after speaker castigated the likes of poor Wavinya for daring to criticize “the king of Ukambani” and the alleged president in waiting who will easily be elected in 2012 (some pipe dream). Meanwhile the hired jeering mob started making a lot of noise in support of what was being said against Wavinya. Imagine gown men all coming to attack a defenseless woman in mourning.
The whole idea was to scare the rebel MPs back into line. Kalonzo probably figured that he would be able to successfully scare “this young girl.” The very opposite seems to have happened. Wavinya emerged from her baptism of fire to hit back at the Kalonzo supporters and appeared to have gotten substantial support from the neutral mourners.
But the real drama followed later when Kalembe Ndile spoke to the mourners and appealed for calm (after the hired hands had mostly left).
Kalembe told a section of the crowd something that probably explains the unbecoming behavior of the “duly appointed” Vice President of the republic of Kenya. He told a very attentive audience that James Orengo (one of the two men together with AG Amos Wako who drafted last Thursday’s historic agreement) had explained to him the implications of the 50/50 agreement. Kalembe says that he was told that it means that everything has to be shared 50/50. Meaning that if the president is from PNU, then the VP has to be from ODM apparently the agreement even stretches to the appointments of ambassadors and High commissioners. Meaning that if the Ambassador to the US is PNU then the High commissioner to the UK will have to be ODM and so forth.
What this means is that VP Kalonzo (or Kaloozer as some readers here love to call him) is set to join the ranks of Kenya’s short-serving VPs. In other words the man who hires goons to disrupt funerals is about to lose the Vice Presidency. His strategy seems to be to ensure that the whole of Ukambani is firmly behind him so as to make it more difficult for him to be dropped. I leave it to you to judge the wisdom of such a move. But I can tell you that these are old ancient tactics learned from the late Mulu Mutisya a man who never saw the inside of a classroom in his life and yet Kalonzo was a devoted student to the man. I can also authoritatively tell you that Kalonzo does NOT have the support of the whole of Ukambani. Actually the community has been split right down the middle and those against him are probably more than those who are for him.
Fellow Kenyans, what we are seeing is the beginning of a power struggle that will be vicious. Not between the big boys Raila and Kibaki (theirs will pale in comparison) but between politicians from the old school and the impatient new rookies who have come in with clear instructions from the people who elected them. And that is they want change and are sick and extremely tired of the old ways.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Kibaki’s Game Plan: Is A Major Purge Imminent?
Most folks believe that history is pretty boring. And yet history never disappoints the researcher looking for answers to current problems. I am a researcher always looking for answers to current questions from history and I recently came across the following gem.
The Special Branch was formally created in 1952 mainly to help deal with the Mau Mau uprising. It acted as a secret intelligence unit for the colonial government. And guess what? What finished Mau mau was not the superior fire power. It was good intelligence from the Special Branch.
The reason why this information was a gem to me is because when the current mess is finally sorted out one of the things that will need to be looked at is the role played by the NSIS (National Security Intelligence Service) and especially the role of its’ Director General, one Major Gen, Michael Gichangi.
Historians will not fail to note that it was during Gichangi’s watch as “principal advisor to the president and the government of the Republic of Kenya on matters related to national security and intelligence” that the biggest political crisis in the history of East Africa unfolded in the country.
Fascinating tit bits about what the 49 year old did and more importantly what he did not do are beginning to emerge. Some unconfirmed reports indicate that President Kibaki is very upset and disappointed at the performance of the Director General during this period of crisis. The reason is that ODM leaders seem to have outwitted him at every corner. For instance it was widely expected that ODM would go to court after losing the presidential elections. However anybody who knew just a little about Raila Odinga would have known that there was no way he was going to go to Kenyan courts to seek legal redress. Especially after some suspicious appointments of judges just before the polls (interestingly everybody seems to have missed the significance of that). And as if that was not enough, the DG again wrongly predicted that the violence and unrest would easily fizzle out after all “the Luos will not throw stones for more than a day or two.” But what actually happened seems to have caught the intelligence community in Kenya by surprise. The Kalenjin community caused unprecedented chaos and deaths and are still a very serious threat.
Now the latest information this blogger is privy to indicates that the DG is about to make yet another huge mistake that will cost Kenyan lives and push the country over the cliff so to speak. It has been recognized that for the current government to survive, they will have to crack the whip. That will mean clamping down on dissenters. There are some people who believe that the purge on the media has already begun with the so-called ministry task force to analyze the media’s role before and after the 2007 general elections. Hardliners have been talking about that purge for months now and would like to include even the ODM top brass. One of Gichangi’s tasks will be to analyze the effects of such a move and its’ repercussions on national security. The verdict that Gichangi’s bosses will be pushing for is that of “it is manageable.” Indeed the arrest of the veteran Rift Valley MP Kibuor has yet to result in any violence in the Rift Valley and this should be an encouragement and apparent “proof” that the potential fall out can indeed be managed.
However information on the ground indicates that this would be yet another major miscalculation on the government side. The current relative calm being witnessed in most parts of the country can deceive. There are many who dread it and believe that what we are seeing is the usual calm before a major storm.
Those who make decisions in the Kibaki administration should remember that the same strategy of creating fear to nip dissent in the bud has recently been tried with disastrous results. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that when the violence started, the police were order to shoot to kill. The idea was to spread fear in the rioting mobs since it is widely believed that everybody fears death. Even animals fear death. That was a terrible, terrible miscalculation because it only fanned emotions and escalated the violence to new heights. Where else in the world have you heard of women and children being locked up in a church which is then set on fire as the perpetrators watch in glee, almost dancing to the terrible screams of agony?
Those who know Gichangi well say that he is a perfect fit into the Kibaki inner circle. Well educated and intelligent but too sure of himself and cocky so that big miscalculations are inevitable. Indeed one puzzle most Kenyans are yet to answer is how a man who never saw the inside of a High School (retired President Moi) ended up being a better manager and much more political savy operator than an economic professor who was the first African to score the maximum 6 points in the O-levels exams. The answer I believe is in the fact that there is a certain humbleness and streetwise nature in self-educated men who start out their careers in a less distinguished manner.
It is said that Kibaki does not think much of anybody who did NOT go to Makerere University let alone somebody who has never seen the inside of a University lecture hall. Little wonder that he is surrounded by intellectual types, very intelligent but political fools who have driven the country to disaster.
Incidentally one of the most influential advisors to President Kibaki at the moment is one Joe Wanjui. The man is as arrogant as they come and a lot more at that. He hails from the old school and “Luo” is to him a dirty word. Wanjui is extremely wealthy but the right question to ask here is why the multinational, Unilever edged him out of the company’s top management, prematurely.
Whatever Major Gen. Gichangi tells Kibaki this time, one thing is very clear, Mwai Kibaki’s game plan can only end up with one result and one result alone. CHAOS.
The Special Branch was formally created in 1952 mainly to help deal with the Mau Mau uprising. It acted as a secret intelligence unit for the colonial government. And guess what? What finished Mau mau was not the superior fire power. It was good intelligence from the Special Branch.
The reason why this information was a gem to me is because when the current mess is finally sorted out one of the things that will need to be looked at is the role played by the NSIS (National Security Intelligence Service) and especially the role of its’ Director General, one Major Gen, Michael Gichangi.
Historians will not fail to note that it was during Gichangi’s watch as “principal advisor to the president and the government of the Republic of Kenya on matters related to national security and intelligence” that the biggest political crisis in the history of East Africa unfolded in the country.
Fascinating tit bits about what the 49 year old did and more importantly what he did not do are beginning to emerge. Some unconfirmed reports indicate that President Kibaki is very upset and disappointed at the performance of the Director General during this period of crisis. The reason is that ODM leaders seem to have outwitted him at every corner. For instance it was widely expected that ODM would go to court after losing the presidential elections. However anybody who knew just a little about Raila Odinga would have known that there was no way he was going to go to Kenyan courts to seek legal redress. Especially after some suspicious appointments of judges just before the polls (interestingly everybody seems to have missed the significance of that). And as if that was not enough, the DG again wrongly predicted that the violence and unrest would easily fizzle out after all “the Luos will not throw stones for more than a day or two.” But what actually happened seems to have caught the intelligence community in Kenya by surprise. The Kalenjin community caused unprecedented chaos and deaths and are still a very serious threat.
Now the latest information this blogger is privy to indicates that the DG is about to make yet another huge mistake that will cost Kenyan lives and push the country over the cliff so to speak. It has been recognized that for the current government to survive, they will have to crack the whip. That will mean clamping down on dissenters. There are some people who believe that the purge on the media has already begun with the so-called ministry task force to analyze the media’s role before and after the 2007 general elections. Hardliners have been talking about that purge for months now and would like to include even the ODM top brass. One of Gichangi’s tasks will be to analyze the effects of such a move and its’ repercussions on national security. The verdict that Gichangi’s bosses will be pushing for is that of “it is manageable.” Indeed the arrest of the veteran Rift Valley MP Kibuor has yet to result in any violence in the Rift Valley and this should be an encouragement and apparent “proof” that the potential fall out can indeed be managed.
However information on the ground indicates that this would be yet another major miscalculation on the government side. The current relative calm being witnessed in most parts of the country can deceive. There are many who dread it and believe that what we are seeing is the usual calm before a major storm.
Those who make decisions in the Kibaki administration should remember that the same strategy of creating fear to nip dissent in the bud has recently been tried with disastrous results. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that when the violence started, the police were order to shoot to kill. The idea was to spread fear in the rioting mobs since it is widely believed that everybody fears death. Even animals fear death. That was a terrible, terrible miscalculation because it only fanned emotions and escalated the violence to new heights. Where else in the world have you heard of women and children being locked up in a church which is then set on fire as the perpetrators watch in glee, almost dancing to the terrible screams of agony?
Those who know Gichangi well say that he is a perfect fit into the Kibaki inner circle. Well educated and intelligent but too sure of himself and cocky so that big miscalculations are inevitable. Indeed one puzzle most Kenyans are yet to answer is how a man who never saw the inside of a High School (retired President Moi) ended up being a better manager and much more political savy operator than an economic professor who was the first African to score the maximum 6 points in the O-levels exams. The answer I believe is in the fact that there is a certain humbleness and streetwise nature in self-educated men who start out their careers in a less distinguished manner.
It is said that Kibaki does not think much of anybody who did NOT go to Makerere University let alone somebody who has never seen the inside of a University lecture hall. Little wonder that he is surrounded by intellectual types, very intelligent but political fools who have driven the country to disaster.
Incidentally one of the most influential advisors to President Kibaki at the moment is one Joe Wanjui. The man is as arrogant as they come and a lot more at that. He hails from the old school and “Luo” is to him a dirty word. Wanjui is extremely wealthy but the right question to ask here is why the multinational, Unilever edged him out of the company’s top management, prematurely.
Whatever Major Gen. Gichangi tells Kibaki this time, one thing is very clear, Mwai Kibaki’s game plan can only end up with one result and one result alone. CHAOS.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Just How Broke Is The Kenyan Government?
When this crisis was just beginning and long before Kenyans and the international community knew who Mwai Kibaki really was, we tried to predict the outcome of this mess with a friend and we both agreed that the deadlock would not be broken by war or anything else.
It would all hinge on money.
If the Kibaki administration managed to keep the money flowing in and the bills paid, then it was going to be a long, long fight.
What we did not agree on with my friend (who is a financial expert and understands Kenya well) was just how vulnerable the Kenyan economy was. In his view it was going to take a lot to bring the folks at the Treasury down to their knees. He emphasized to me that the Kenyan economy was NOT the Zimbabwean economy. If truth be told, he has mostly been right. However a number of extraordinary factors have quickly combined to completely change the scenario.
Despite Finance Minister Amos Kimunya’s brave face and cocky statements to the effect that the economy would hardly be scathed even after the devastating post-election violence that has swept across the country, the reality is different.
We are not all financial experts so let’s keep this simple.
Imagine that Kenya is an individual who receives money but has numerous bills to pay. Survival hinges on receiving enough money to be able to pay their bills on time. Before we start looking at where the money is coming from it is important to note that this chap called Kenya hardly saves any money and in recent times has been a huge spender. That combination can be deadly.
This guy Kenya has been receiving most of his cash from tourism. In recent years tourists have been flooding the country in unprecedented numbers. We all know that that source of income has been wiped out. Probably the most telling sign that things are really bad was the cancellation of all Paris flights by Kenya Airways two days ago. While it is true that France does not give Kenya many tourists, one needs to understand how airlines like Kenya Airways work. Usually the idea is to juggle routes in such a way as to keep the income stream that is flowing in, as high as possible. Cancellation of one destination does not affect just that country. It will have a trickle down effect on virtually the entire European network and beyond because of issues like flight connections. If truth be told the managers at KQ must already be in a cold sweat.
The other major source that puts cash in Kenya’s pocket is the collection of taxes. Not only have numerous businesses not transacted much since December last year, but there are certain lucrative areas of tax collection that have been shut down. As you read this the Rift Valley, Kenya’s rich bread basket has virtually shut down. Again the effect of this cannot be limited to the Rift Valley alone. The businesses there had suppliers from all over the country some of whom will now have to close shop.
Spending on the other hand has gone through the roof since December 30th or thereabouts. Keeping some semblance of law and order has required the largest deployment of policemen and the military in the history of Kenya. The bill is a top secret but I can tell you that it is colossally HUGE.
The picture is pretty grim, but what this guy called Kenya is trying to do is put on a brave face and pretend that all is well. This is critical because as long as the Mboga woman whom you owe a big debt sees you driving in every day, then her confidence will still be in place because all people who keep cars on the road have a lot of money, or so she thinks. You don’t want her to see you catch the matatu as your car remains parked outside your compound. That would cause her to lose confidence and demand immediate payment and that would mean no more vegetables on your dinner table.
This is precisely the reason why Kenya has been at pains to paint an image of business as usual.
However as you read this, the government has ruthlessly cut down on all spending except that of very essential items. The idea is to keep wage and salary bills paid for as long as possible. But already all the signs are there that it is only a matter of time before some department of government has their salary delayed.
The reason why all this should worry Kenyans a lot is because the hard-line stance and the way PNU folks are talking does NOT make sense at all when you consider the cash situation. The facts suggest that Mwai Kibaki should have greatly softened in his stand by now. So what does he know that we DO NOT know?
How will the country survive the next few weeks and months?
It is frightening evidence that Mwai Kibaki may just be playing the most dangerous card of all. What I call the Samson option. You all know the Samson story in the bible. When surrounded by enemies on all sides and with his eyes gorged out, Samson felt his strength returning and asking God for the anointing one last time, he was guided to the pillars of the building and sued his strength to bring it all down, destroying himself and all his enemies with him.
God forbid that the slogan amongst insiders in State house is NOT; No Kibaki, No Kenya.
It would all hinge on money.
If the Kibaki administration managed to keep the money flowing in and the bills paid, then it was going to be a long, long fight.
What we did not agree on with my friend (who is a financial expert and understands Kenya well) was just how vulnerable the Kenyan economy was. In his view it was going to take a lot to bring the folks at the Treasury down to their knees. He emphasized to me that the Kenyan economy was NOT the Zimbabwean economy. If truth be told, he has mostly been right. However a number of extraordinary factors have quickly combined to completely change the scenario.
Despite Finance Minister Amos Kimunya’s brave face and cocky statements to the effect that the economy would hardly be scathed even after the devastating post-election violence that has swept across the country, the reality is different.
We are not all financial experts so let’s keep this simple.
Imagine that Kenya is an individual who receives money but has numerous bills to pay. Survival hinges on receiving enough money to be able to pay their bills on time. Before we start looking at where the money is coming from it is important to note that this chap called Kenya hardly saves any money and in recent times has been a huge spender. That combination can be deadly.
This guy Kenya has been receiving most of his cash from tourism. In recent years tourists have been flooding the country in unprecedented numbers. We all know that that source of income has been wiped out. Probably the most telling sign that things are really bad was the cancellation of all Paris flights by Kenya Airways two days ago. While it is true that France does not give Kenya many tourists, one needs to understand how airlines like Kenya Airways work. Usually the idea is to juggle routes in such a way as to keep the income stream that is flowing in, as high as possible. Cancellation of one destination does not affect just that country. It will have a trickle down effect on virtually the entire European network and beyond because of issues like flight connections. If truth be told the managers at KQ must already be in a cold sweat.
The other major source that puts cash in Kenya’s pocket is the collection of taxes. Not only have numerous businesses not transacted much since December last year, but there are certain lucrative areas of tax collection that have been shut down. As you read this the Rift Valley, Kenya’s rich bread basket has virtually shut down. Again the effect of this cannot be limited to the Rift Valley alone. The businesses there had suppliers from all over the country some of whom will now have to close shop.
Spending on the other hand has gone through the roof since December 30th or thereabouts. Keeping some semblance of law and order has required the largest deployment of policemen and the military in the history of Kenya. The bill is a top secret but I can tell you that it is colossally HUGE.
The picture is pretty grim, but what this guy called Kenya is trying to do is put on a brave face and pretend that all is well. This is critical because as long as the Mboga woman whom you owe a big debt sees you driving in every day, then her confidence will still be in place because all people who keep cars on the road have a lot of money, or so she thinks. You don’t want her to see you catch the matatu as your car remains parked outside your compound. That would cause her to lose confidence and demand immediate payment and that would mean no more vegetables on your dinner table.
This is precisely the reason why Kenya has been at pains to paint an image of business as usual.
However as you read this, the government has ruthlessly cut down on all spending except that of very essential items. The idea is to keep wage and salary bills paid for as long as possible. But already all the signs are there that it is only a matter of time before some department of government has their salary delayed.
The reason why all this should worry Kenyans a lot is because the hard-line stance and the way PNU folks are talking does NOT make sense at all when you consider the cash situation. The facts suggest that Mwai Kibaki should have greatly softened in his stand by now. So what does he know that we DO NOT know?
How will the country survive the next few weeks and months?
It is frightening evidence that Mwai Kibaki may just be playing the most dangerous card of all. What I call the Samson option. You all know the Samson story in the bible. When surrounded by enemies on all sides and with his eyes gorged out, Samson felt his strength returning and asking God for the anointing one last time, he was guided to the pillars of the building and sued his strength to bring it all down, destroying himself and all his enemies with him.
God forbid that the slogan amongst insiders in State house is NOT; No Kibaki, No Kenya.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
The Big News Everybody Missed
Some very strange events took place yesterday in Nairobi.
Kofi Anan went into a meeting with Mwai Kibaki at the president’s office at Harambee house. When they emerged from the meeting it was announced that President Kibaki had completely rejected the power sharing idea floated by the International community to end the political crisis in Kenya.
Everybody seems to have missed that very significant development. Except the razor sharp alert KTN and Standard group folks. Daily Nation which has been carrying some disturbingly bizarre headlines, packaged the news differently and the headline is about Kibaki’s proposals to end the polls crisis. More on why the Nation are behaving the way they are, later in this post.
The significance of this news is that Mwai Kibaki has trashed what the entire International community is saying. The Americans are rich guys but one wonders what was the point of Condi Rice, burning jet fuel all the way to Nairobi to deliver a message that has been totally rejected without any serious consideration.
But even stranger was the reaction of ODM. The silence of the party was deafening. In fact over the last few days ODM has said very little. Why?
One theory is that the party does not want to accused of incitement or to be associated in any way to the violence that is bound to break out when news of Kibaki’s latest stand finally trickles down to the Rift Valley. Another is that they have realized that the best strategy is to led blundering Mwai Kibaki produce the rope himself and proceed to hang himself, which is precisely what is happening currently. It is increasingly clear, as Mutahi Ngunyi so aptly puts it, that this crisis is NOT about 2 people. It is not about Raila and Kibaki. Actually it is about one man. That man is Mwai Kibaki who wields all the power to end the crisis yesterday or last week.
Clearly the writing is on the wall. The talks will not work. In fact listening to Kibaki’s foot soldiers who are all saying the same thing, it is clear that PNU’s strategy is to use delaying tactics and just hold out until everybody tires and the next elections are around the corner. It remains to be seen whether this plan will work. Interestingly Danston Mungatana (who is also a lawyer by profession) says that any agreement arrived at by the peace negotiations, like power sharing, will need to get the approval of the people of Kenya through a referendum.
So what is going to happen next?
To start with I have no reason to doubt reports reaching me that there is heavy presence of the Kenya army in the Rift Valley. That means that the Kalenjin militia who the foreign press are telling us are preparing for war, will be dealt with. Only that the army is hardly trained to deal with civilian unrest. And besides it could easily degenerate into a guerrilla war which will be terrible news. Whatever the case the casualties are bound to be high.
It seems that the international community are also ready. Sample George W. Bush’s words in Rwanda yesterday;
What George Bush said;
“One of the lessons I take from the Rwanda genocide is to take some early warning signs seriously…
“Pay attention to the warning signs and prevent crises like this from happening. We are obviously trying to prevent such a crisis from happening in Kenya. Condi Rice briefed the president in her meeting yesterday (Monday), and we strongly support Kofi Annan’s efforts.
“I am not suggesting that anything close (to what happened in Rwanda) is happening in Kenya or is gonna happen, but I am suggesting that there are some warning signs that the international community needs to pay attention to. And we are paying attention to it and I know the AU will as well.”
P.S. It is said that the Nation editorial staff are under firm instructions from Paris (where the majority share holder the Aga Khan is based) to take a very low profile and to support Mwai Kibaki’s government as much as possible. That is why the headlines you see in Nation are bizarre these days.
My favourite so far is the one that talked about Anan signing a half way deal with PNU and ODM. Does anybody have any idea what that may mean? A half way deal?
Actually senior staff at the Nation group are all very jittery at the moment because the word on the street is that the Aga Khan is about to announce major changes at Nation Center. Nobody knows how major and nobody knows who is leaving and who is being promoted.
That fax could come through at any moment and on any day. Quite a terrible waiting situation to be in.
Kofi Anan went into a meeting with Mwai Kibaki at the president’s office at Harambee house. When they emerged from the meeting it was announced that President Kibaki had completely rejected the power sharing idea floated by the International community to end the political crisis in Kenya.
Everybody seems to have missed that very significant development. Except the razor sharp alert KTN and Standard group folks. Daily Nation which has been carrying some disturbingly bizarre headlines, packaged the news differently and the headline is about Kibaki’s proposals to end the polls crisis. More on why the Nation are behaving the way they are, later in this post.
The significance of this news is that Mwai Kibaki has trashed what the entire International community is saying. The Americans are rich guys but one wonders what was the point of Condi Rice, burning jet fuel all the way to Nairobi to deliver a message that has been totally rejected without any serious consideration.
But even stranger was the reaction of ODM. The silence of the party was deafening. In fact over the last few days ODM has said very little. Why?
One theory is that the party does not want to accused of incitement or to be associated in any way to the violence that is bound to break out when news of Kibaki’s latest stand finally trickles down to the Rift Valley. Another is that they have realized that the best strategy is to led blundering Mwai Kibaki produce the rope himself and proceed to hang himself, which is precisely what is happening currently. It is increasingly clear, as Mutahi Ngunyi so aptly puts it, that this crisis is NOT about 2 people. It is not about Raila and Kibaki. Actually it is about one man. That man is Mwai Kibaki who wields all the power to end the crisis yesterday or last week.
Clearly the writing is on the wall. The talks will not work. In fact listening to Kibaki’s foot soldiers who are all saying the same thing, it is clear that PNU’s strategy is to use delaying tactics and just hold out until everybody tires and the next elections are around the corner. It remains to be seen whether this plan will work. Interestingly Danston Mungatana (who is also a lawyer by profession) says that any agreement arrived at by the peace negotiations, like power sharing, will need to get the approval of the people of Kenya through a referendum.
So what is going to happen next?
To start with I have no reason to doubt reports reaching me that there is heavy presence of the Kenya army in the Rift Valley. That means that the Kalenjin militia who the foreign press are telling us are preparing for war, will be dealt with. Only that the army is hardly trained to deal with civilian unrest. And besides it could easily degenerate into a guerrilla war which will be terrible news. Whatever the case the casualties are bound to be high.
It seems that the international community are also ready. Sample George W. Bush’s words in Rwanda yesterday;
What George Bush said;
“One of the lessons I take from the Rwanda genocide is to take some early warning signs seriously…
“Pay attention to the warning signs and prevent crises like this from happening. We are obviously trying to prevent such a crisis from happening in Kenya. Condi Rice briefed the president in her meeting yesterday (Monday), and we strongly support Kofi Annan’s efforts.
“I am not suggesting that anything close (to what happened in Rwanda) is happening in Kenya or is gonna happen, but I am suggesting that there are some warning signs that the international community needs to pay attention to. And we are paying attention to it and I know the AU will as well.”
P.S. It is said that the Nation editorial staff are under firm instructions from Paris (where the majority share holder the Aga Khan is based) to take a very low profile and to support Mwai Kibaki’s government as much as possible. That is why the headlines you see in Nation are bizarre these days.
My favourite so far is the one that talked about Anan signing a half way deal with PNU and ODM. Does anybody have any idea what that may mean? A half way deal?
Actually senior staff at the Nation group are all very jittery at the moment because the word on the street is that the Aga Khan is about to announce major changes at Nation Center. Nobody knows how major and nobody knows who is leaving and who is being promoted.
That fax could come through at any moment and on any day. Quite a terrible waiting situation to be in.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Why Has Salim Lone Fled From Kenya?
Famous Veteran Kenyan Journalist, ODM Communications Chief And Former United Nations Media Director Tells Friends That He Feared For His Life…
Sometime today (Monday Feb 18th 2008) some top ODM officials will get a little surprised when the party communications chief Salim Lone fails to return from what was supposed to be a brief trip to New York hurriedly taken last week.
The truth is that Salim Lone has been telling close friends abroad that he fled for his life from Kenya after threats from PNU. However a few things do not add up. Why keep everything secret from the ODM top brass? And if it is true that he was threatened, why has he still not gone public with the story that he has told many close friends?
Actually Lone’s action has caused lots of anxiety amongst close analysts and observers of the Kenyan situation but before I tell you why, a brief introduction of Lone to those who may not know him is in order.
Salim Lone is a Kenyan by nationality, a veteran journalist, and former Director of the News and Media Division, Department of Public Information, of the United Nations. He has also been a rather prolific columnist for the Daily Nation and also writes regularly for The Guardian in the UK.
Salim Lone was director of the news and media division (1998-2003) during his twenty one year career at United Nations headquarters. His last assignment was as spokesman for the UN mission in Iraq immediately after the US-led 2003 war and occupation.
Lone was the founding editor of the pioneer woman’s monthly in Kenya, Viva in the 70s and was in fact forced to flee the country during the early Moi years fearing arrest for some of his political pieces in Viva a magazine. That was what led to his arrival in New York and a 21 year career at the UN. Still he is no stranger to harassment from Kenyan security agents in those terrible years of limited press freedom where numerous activists disappeared and brave writers disappeared without trace.
So the truth is that Lone does not scare easily. That is why analysts are ev en more worried and are wondering what exactly caused the ODM communications director to suddenly hop onto a plane and flee.
Admittedly, it seems clear that Lone no longer felt safe in Kenya. But what is this threat which ODM and Raila Odinga could NOT adequately protect him from? And why keep his intentions secret by telling ODM colleagues that he was away briefly and would be back by Monday (today)?
Clearly Lone knows something that many of us do not know yet. One theory is that he was made aware that President Kibaki is about to arrest and detain without trial, all top pentagon members and their close associates. (Yes, the constitution still empowers him to d just that). The information that Kumekucha has from impeccable sources is that the Kamikaze-like Kibaki administration has been agonizing for weeks now over this decision. Hardliners within the Kibaki camp favor such a move and have been pushing for it. Those who know the president are well aware of his weakness of avoiding to make decisions until it is too late. He delayed his exit from Kanu until the very last minute and even waited until Christmas day December 1991 to announce his defection from Kanu to form his own political party, DP (Democratic Party).
Again, during his first term as president, Kibaki delayed making a decision about the LDP rebels within the Narc coalition and as a result allowed the rebellion to spread and the popularity of the rebels to rise to the detriment of his own. And when he finally got rid of them, he did it by dissolving the entire government. He however got a rude shock when for the first time in Kenya’s history a number of politicians rejected their appointments to the cabinet. Only a last minute desperate deal with Ford Kenya ad Musikari Kombo as well as Charity Ngilu, saved his government.
True to form, those who know the president well are predicting that he is about to make a drastic belated step in restoring order and stamping his authority as the “duly elected president.” Never mind about the Anan talks.
Another theory to explain Salim Lone’s decision to flee Kenya so suddenly is the much-talked about second wave of violence, which the Kalenjin community has called the “coming war,” which is widely expected to beak out if and when the Anan talks fail to reach an agreeable conclusion. It is possible that Lone felt that it would be difficult to leave the country then and therefore opted to flee early before the human waste hits the fun, as some people say.
This is the kind f speculation that has kept most analysts on their toes, even as Lone sticks to his story that he was threatened by some sympathizers of PNU. Whatever anybody wants to believe, it is clear that something very major is about to happen in Kenya.
Read a recent article on Salim Lone, complete with pictures.
P.S. This is a rather humbling time for Kenya. About two years ago a brief discussion about Kenya in Washington between Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete and President Bush sparked off a diplomatic row with complaints coming from the Kenya foreign office. Yesterday a similar discussion took place in Dar-es-salaam between Bush and Kikwete and this time there wasn’t even a whimper from Kenya.
Read the full account of this meeting that ended with Bush leaving a grant of almost one billion US dollars to President Kikwete and Tanzania.
Sometime today (Monday Feb 18th 2008) some top ODM officials will get a little surprised when the party communications chief Salim Lone fails to return from what was supposed to be a brief trip to New York hurriedly taken last week.
The truth is that Salim Lone has been telling close friends abroad that he fled for his life from Kenya after threats from PNU. However a few things do not add up. Why keep everything secret from the ODM top brass? And if it is true that he was threatened, why has he still not gone public with the story that he has told many close friends?
Actually Lone’s action has caused lots of anxiety amongst close analysts and observers of the Kenyan situation but before I tell you why, a brief introduction of Lone to those who may not know him is in order.
Salim Lone is a Kenyan by nationality, a veteran journalist, and former Director of the News and Media Division, Department of Public Information, of the United Nations. He has also been a rather prolific columnist for the Daily Nation and also writes regularly for The Guardian in the UK.
Salim Lone was director of the news and media division (1998-2003) during his twenty one year career at United Nations headquarters. His last assignment was as spokesman for the UN mission in Iraq immediately after the US-led 2003 war and occupation.
Lone was the founding editor of the pioneer woman’s monthly in Kenya, Viva in the 70s and was in fact forced to flee the country during the early Moi years fearing arrest for some of his political pieces in Viva a magazine. That was what led to his arrival in New York and a 21 year career at the UN. Still he is no stranger to harassment from Kenyan security agents in those terrible years of limited press freedom where numerous activists disappeared and brave writers disappeared without trace.
So the truth is that Lone does not scare easily. That is why analysts are ev en more worried and are wondering what exactly caused the ODM communications director to suddenly hop onto a plane and flee.
Admittedly, it seems clear that Lone no longer felt safe in Kenya. But what is this threat which ODM and Raila Odinga could NOT adequately protect him from? And why keep his intentions secret by telling ODM colleagues that he was away briefly and would be back by Monday (today)?
Clearly Lone knows something that many of us do not know yet. One theory is that he was made aware that President Kibaki is about to arrest and detain without trial, all top pentagon members and their close associates. (Yes, the constitution still empowers him to d just that). The information that Kumekucha has from impeccable sources is that the Kamikaze-like Kibaki administration has been agonizing for weeks now over this decision. Hardliners within the Kibaki camp favor such a move and have been pushing for it. Those who know the president are well aware of his weakness of avoiding to make decisions until it is too late. He delayed his exit from Kanu until the very last minute and even waited until Christmas day December 1991 to announce his defection from Kanu to form his own political party, DP (Democratic Party).
Again, during his first term as president, Kibaki delayed making a decision about the LDP rebels within the Narc coalition and as a result allowed the rebellion to spread and the popularity of the rebels to rise to the detriment of his own. And when he finally got rid of them, he did it by dissolving the entire government. He however got a rude shock when for the first time in Kenya’s history a number of politicians rejected their appointments to the cabinet. Only a last minute desperate deal with Ford Kenya ad Musikari Kombo as well as Charity Ngilu, saved his government.
True to form, those who know the president well are predicting that he is about to make a drastic belated step in restoring order and stamping his authority as the “duly elected president.” Never mind about the Anan talks.
Another theory to explain Salim Lone’s decision to flee Kenya so suddenly is the much-talked about second wave of violence, which the Kalenjin community has called the “coming war,” which is widely expected to beak out if and when the Anan talks fail to reach an agreeable conclusion. It is possible that Lone felt that it would be difficult to leave the country then and therefore opted to flee early before the human waste hits the fun, as some people say.
This is the kind f speculation that has kept most analysts on their toes, even as Lone sticks to his story that he was threatened by some sympathizers of PNU. Whatever anybody wants to believe, it is clear that something very major is about to happen in Kenya.
Read a recent article on Salim Lone, complete with pictures.
P.S. This is a rather humbling time for Kenya. About two years ago a brief discussion about Kenya in Washington between Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete and President Bush sparked off a diplomatic row with complaints coming from the Kenya foreign office. Yesterday a similar discussion took place in Dar-es-salaam between Bush and Kikwete and this time there wasn’t even a whimper from Kenya.
Read the full account of this meeting that ended with Bush leaving a grant of almost one billion US dollars to President Kikwete and Tanzania.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
James Kanyotu Is Dead
Kenya’s longest serving spy chief James Kanyotu is dead. He died last night at Nairobi Hospital where he had been rushed for treatment. It has still not been revealed to the press what he was suffering from. He was 76.
Kanyotu led the infamously cruel Special Branch from 1965 to 1991. Interestingly circumstances surrounding his dismissal by Moi in 1991 are worth noting here. It is said that shortly after then Health Minister in the Moi government, Mwai Kibaki announced his resignation from government in Mombasa on Christmas day 1991, then president Moi called Kanyotu and angrily asked him why he had not been made aware that Kibaki was resigning from his cabinet to form a political party. Kanyotu replied politely that he was not aware. Moi asked him angrily what he would do if he fired him. Kanyotu politely replied that that was the prerogative of the president. And that’s how Kanyotu left.
It is widely believed that Moi thought at the time that Kanyotu had held back the information from him deliberately because he came from the same tribe as Kibaki. Those who know Kanyotu say that he was too professional for that and are still very surprised that the man ever got involved in Goldenberg.
Moi seems to have had a phobia concerning Kibaki’s perceived political clout and during the first multi party elections that followed shortly in 1992, efforts were made to dig up all the dirt that could be found about Kibaki. That is when the infamous Mugumo tree quote first emerged. Moi’s think tank spent a fortune carrying ads giving negative “facts” about Kibaki. However it was soon clear that Moi had nothing to fear because Kenneth Matiba who ended up second, trounced Kibaki in those first elections and for a time Muranga Kikuyus were angry at Kibaki because he had denied their man the presidency by splitting the Kikuyu vote. Combining Matiba’s votes that year with those of Kibaki would have given Matiba a clear win.
Back to Kanyotu. The man made a remarkable recovery in terms of favor from Moi and the establishment and ended up being one of the main suspects of the Goldenberg scandal. He was in fact a director of the Kamlesh (Paul) Pattni’s Goldenberg International. This was hardly surprising because a man with the volume of information and secrets on the country that Kanyotu had was naturally a very dangerous man outside government.
In fact Kanyotu has taken with him to the grave many secrets that may have helped Kenyans understand the country better and prepare for the healing process that must follow soon if this nation is to be saved.
P.S. The Special Branch metamorphosed into today’s NSIS (National Security Intelligence Services) that was built up almost single handedly by President Moi’s former aide de camp, Maj Boinett. He moved quickly to get rid of most of the torture experts who had been used on proponents of democracy and who had been involved in some very nasty business getting rid of President Kenyatta and President Moi’s perceived political threats.
Interestingly the current NSIS is again at a cross roads after being misused by President Kibaki and the hardliners in his government to supply intelligence information that was obviously used to rig the December 29th polls. It is clear that NSIS needs to be reformed once again to stop future president’s using the important national institution for their own personal and selfish political interests.
Kanyotu led the infamously cruel Special Branch from 1965 to 1991. Interestingly circumstances surrounding his dismissal by Moi in 1991 are worth noting here. It is said that shortly after then Health Minister in the Moi government, Mwai Kibaki announced his resignation from government in Mombasa on Christmas day 1991, then president Moi called Kanyotu and angrily asked him why he had not been made aware that Kibaki was resigning from his cabinet to form a political party. Kanyotu replied politely that he was not aware. Moi asked him angrily what he would do if he fired him. Kanyotu politely replied that that was the prerogative of the president. And that’s how Kanyotu left.
It is widely believed that Moi thought at the time that Kanyotu had held back the information from him deliberately because he came from the same tribe as Kibaki. Those who know Kanyotu say that he was too professional for that and are still very surprised that the man ever got involved in Goldenberg.
Moi seems to have had a phobia concerning Kibaki’s perceived political clout and during the first multi party elections that followed shortly in 1992, efforts were made to dig up all the dirt that could be found about Kibaki. That is when the infamous Mugumo tree quote first emerged. Moi’s think tank spent a fortune carrying ads giving negative “facts” about Kibaki. However it was soon clear that Moi had nothing to fear because Kenneth Matiba who ended up second, trounced Kibaki in those first elections and for a time Muranga Kikuyus were angry at Kibaki because he had denied their man the presidency by splitting the Kikuyu vote. Combining Matiba’s votes that year with those of Kibaki would have given Matiba a clear win.
Back to Kanyotu. The man made a remarkable recovery in terms of favor from Moi and the establishment and ended up being one of the main suspects of the Goldenberg scandal. He was in fact a director of the Kamlesh (Paul) Pattni’s Goldenberg International. This was hardly surprising because a man with the volume of information and secrets on the country that Kanyotu had was naturally a very dangerous man outside government.
In fact Kanyotu has taken with him to the grave many secrets that may have helped Kenyans understand the country better and prepare for the healing process that must follow soon if this nation is to be saved.
P.S. The Special Branch metamorphosed into today’s NSIS (National Security Intelligence Services) that was built up almost single handedly by President Moi’s former aide de camp, Maj Boinett. He moved quickly to get rid of most of the torture experts who had been used on proponents of democracy and who had been involved in some very nasty business getting rid of President Kenyatta and President Moi’s perceived political threats.
Interestingly the current NSIS is again at a cross roads after being misused by President Kibaki and the hardliners in his government to supply intelligence information that was obviously used to rig the December 29th polls. It is clear that NSIS needs to be reformed once again to stop future president’s using the important national institution for their own personal and selfish political interests.
The Crazy Things Kenyans Are Discussing In Domo
In a recent very heated chat session in Kumekucha Domo, our recently launched chat site, this photograph of Martha Karua, the Justice minister provoked very heated debate.
The subject was how the Minister could seat so carelessly. Many ladies made various unprintable comments about her thighs. (If You click on the image, you will be able to see an enlarged version of the picture and the said thighs in greater detail).
Somebody tried to defend the minister by pointing out that the thighs are scarred because of the very serious air crash accident she was involved in in Busia in 2003. But many of the participants could hear nothing of it.
To be honest a lot of what they said cannot be said here (sorry) but you can catch similar discussions at our chat site. Just go back to our main site and then scroll down on the side to the end of the ads and other details on the side bar and look out for “Userplane webchat”. If you don't see it there, scroll down right to the bottom (some browsers place it right at the bottom). Please be patient and wait for the site to load completely, only then will you be able to see see the small "userplane Webchat" window. You don’t even need to register to enter, just key in any screen name you would like to use and login to discover the crazy things Kenyans are discussing out there at the moment.
Kumekucha himself makes frequent appearances and reveals information that he cannot dare publish here. Stop missing all the action. Go to the Kumekcuha chat site now.
P.S. Others are making special friends at the chat site. Kumekucha recently found a very special lady friend there. Don’t envy him please. And not a word to Mrs Kumekucha (just kidding folks, she knows about it).
Monday, February 11, 2008
The Terrible Truth Kenyans Don’t Want To Hear
Listening to Mwai Kibaki yesterday, any alert Kenyan would have concluded that we are in very serious trouble. The “duly elected president” was at his vintage best (for those who know him well).
Firstly he pulled away Prof Sam Ongeri from the Anan talks a clear indication that launching the free secondary school education program was more important than those talks which so many Kenyans are hanging all their hopes on (pole sana). The whole idea is to prop up his government and emphasize business as usual (which is what every middle class and wealthy Kenyan is desperate for, for mostly selfish reasons).
Secondly Mwai Kibaki also talked at length about resettling displaced persons and the government helping them to rebuild their houses. I do not for one minute support the gruesome murder and chaos that has been going on, but what do you think the other side felt? Those with land issues high on their agenda. The president was behaving as if all that has happened means nothing.
Then there was another even clearer sign that all was not well. Annan came out of the talks yesterday looking a very tired and frustrated man. He asked the press to leave him alone and then took a long walk along Kenyatta Avenue with his bodyguards in tow. Later in the evening, he issued a statement announcing a news blackout on the talks and a last dash 48 to 72 hours to reach an agreement of sorts. It seems everybody has forgotten the strange events of last Friday when a breakthrough was announced and then when everybody went to Harambee house nothing happened.
Previous posts here by Taabu and Kalamari are pretty accurate about the state of affairs and it is clear from the comments that followed them that many Kenyans have a lot of hope riding on the Anan talks. Those Kenyans are not very different from Mwai Kibaki asking victims of post election violence to go back to the Rift Valley and promising that the government (which is rapidly running out of cash and resources) will build houses for them. In fact he made this announcement shortly after launching free secondary school education. Mr Kibaki must know something that we don’t, it seems that Kenya has discovered gold and oil at the same time, so money is no longer a problem despite the huge tourism earnings being wiped out.
If I were to tell you all about the real situation on the ground, it would be incitement. But let me censor things a little and give you an idea.
The Kalenjin community are far from being tired from all the violence. I actually grew up with kalenjins when I was very young and I was pretty sure that I know the community well. The events since December 30th have shown me that I know nothing. Many Kenyans are not aware f the fact that at one point the Kalenjin militia exchanged fire with the Kenya army. In the environs of Nakuru. The professional soldiers easily won ove the amateur ones, but my point is; can you imagine the cheek of attempting something so reckless?
You would need to visit the Rift Valley to understand the reality of the damage that has been done there. Heavily edited TV footage does not do justice to the situation on the ground.
But what makes it difficult for me to sleep at night is the attitude on the ground of this community. For starters they are NOT interested in a coalition government. Not even one with Raila as the president. All they want is the government they voted for in power.
One of my informants on the ground put it thus;
“I was amazed when a Kenyan from this community who hardly seems to have spent too long a period in a classroom told me that the idea is to cripple all transport to neighboring Uganda, Rwanda etc and get those people to join their side in the war. I almost asked him what War, but quickly checked myself. You don’t ask such questions in the Rift Valley.”
The Kikuyu have re-grouped very quickly and it seems that funds are flowing to he Mungiki so much so that unlike the Kalenjin militia, these guys don’t need to set up road blocks or get “taxes”. Where is the cash coming from? This makes these guys very focused in the things that they do. As you read this, Naivasha town has changed into some medieval town overnight where you will not find a single woman wearing trousers.
I cannot say more, but take it from me, things are not good.
To avert disaster what Kenyans badly need now is a peacekeeping force from the AU or UN to come into the country and stop the killings (which are on the increase by the way). The second agenda would be to find a way to come up with brand new constitution without involving the current crop of politicians who have brought the country to its’ knees. Then we need a new election where everybody who has ever been to parliament will be barred from standing for office. I am convinced that this will give us true leaders from he fresh crop (leaders are incidentally created at a time of great crisis such as his one). Anybody who claims that we have leaders in Kenya at the moment should have their heads examined.
P.S. I am also desperate for life to return to normal in Kenya. Most of my family including very close relatives is still in Kenya. But I have to be realistic based on the facts that I have. There is no point coming here and cheating my readers that all is well and that something will come out of the Anan talks. Still I would love to be wrong on this one folks, I really worry a lot.
Firstly he pulled away Prof Sam Ongeri from the Anan talks a clear indication that launching the free secondary school education program was more important than those talks which so many Kenyans are hanging all their hopes on (pole sana). The whole idea is to prop up his government and emphasize business as usual (which is what every middle class and wealthy Kenyan is desperate for, for mostly selfish reasons).
Secondly Mwai Kibaki also talked at length about resettling displaced persons and the government helping them to rebuild their houses. I do not for one minute support the gruesome murder and chaos that has been going on, but what do you think the other side felt? Those with land issues high on their agenda. The president was behaving as if all that has happened means nothing.
Then there was another even clearer sign that all was not well. Annan came out of the talks yesterday looking a very tired and frustrated man. He asked the press to leave him alone and then took a long walk along Kenyatta Avenue with his bodyguards in tow. Later in the evening, he issued a statement announcing a news blackout on the talks and a last dash 48 to 72 hours to reach an agreement of sorts. It seems everybody has forgotten the strange events of last Friday when a breakthrough was announced and then when everybody went to Harambee house nothing happened.
Previous posts here by Taabu and Kalamari are pretty accurate about the state of affairs and it is clear from the comments that followed them that many Kenyans have a lot of hope riding on the Anan talks. Those Kenyans are not very different from Mwai Kibaki asking victims of post election violence to go back to the Rift Valley and promising that the government (which is rapidly running out of cash and resources) will build houses for them. In fact he made this announcement shortly after launching free secondary school education. Mr Kibaki must know something that we don’t, it seems that Kenya has discovered gold and oil at the same time, so money is no longer a problem despite the huge tourism earnings being wiped out.
If I were to tell you all about the real situation on the ground, it would be incitement. But let me censor things a little and give you an idea.
The Kalenjin community are far from being tired from all the violence. I actually grew up with kalenjins when I was very young and I was pretty sure that I know the community well. The events since December 30th have shown me that I know nothing. Many Kenyans are not aware f the fact that at one point the Kalenjin militia exchanged fire with the Kenya army. In the environs of Nakuru. The professional soldiers easily won ove the amateur ones, but my point is; can you imagine the cheek of attempting something so reckless?
You would need to visit the Rift Valley to understand the reality of the damage that has been done there. Heavily edited TV footage does not do justice to the situation on the ground.
But what makes it difficult for me to sleep at night is the attitude on the ground of this community. For starters they are NOT interested in a coalition government. Not even one with Raila as the president. All they want is the government they voted for in power.
One of my informants on the ground put it thus;
“I was amazed when a Kenyan from this community who hardly seems to have spent too long a period in a classroom told me that the idea is to cripple all transport to neighboring Uganda, Rwanda etc and get those people to join their side in the war. I almost asked him what War, but quickly checked myself. You don’t ask such questions in the Rift Valley.”
The Kikuyu have re-grouped very quickly and it seems that funds are flowing to he Mungiki so much so that unlike the Kalenjin militia, these guys don’t need to set up road blocks or get “taxes”. Where is the cash coming from? This makes these guys very focused in the things that they do. As you read this, Naivasha town has changed into some medieval town overnight where you will not find a single woman wearing trousers.
I cannot say more, but take it from me, things are not good.
To avert disaster what Kenyans badly need now is a peacekeeping force from the AU or UN to come into the country and stop the killings (which are on the increase by the way). The second agenda would be to find a way to come up with brand new constitution without involving the current crop of politicians who have brought the country to its’ knees. Then we need a new election where everybody who has ever been to parliament will be barred from standing for office. I am convinced that this will give us true leaders from he fresh crop (leaders are incidentally created at a time of great crisis such as his one). Anybody who claims that we have leaders in Kenya at the moment should have their heads examined.
P.S. I am also desperate for life to return to normal in Kenya. Most of my family including very close relatives is still in Kenya. But I have to be realistic based on the facts that I have. There is no point coming here and cheating my readers that all is well and that something will come out of the Anan talks. Still I would love to be wrong on this one folks, I really worry a lot.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Dr Mutua’s Inclusion In Visa Ban being Discussed?
As Hardliners In Kibaki Government Reign Supreme
It was here in Kumekucha, early last month that we informed you that the International community was discussing possible Visa bans against prominent Kenyans who have contributed to the crisis in the country.
As you read this 10 Kenyans from both sides of the political divide are already on a list that should be made public soon. This initial list has no surprises and includes mainly individuals who should have had this Visa ban slapped on them years ago. Most of them featured prominently in the infamous Kroll report. As it is some analysts feel that it is too little late. However there is no denying the fact that it will hurt the individuals and their immediate families a great deal. Students will be deported from universities and wives who enjoyed frequent London or Dubai shopping trips will have less to talk and brag about at their next social.
But what should be even more interesting is the next list of 30 that the Americans have revealed that they are working on. Unconfirmed reports reaching Kumekucha indicate that the name of Dr Alfred Mutua the government spokesman may be on that list for issuing inflammatory statements before and after the crisis. Naturally this means that the name of his wife is also on the said list.
If this report turns out to be true numerous Kenyans will be delighted. It is even more hilarious because Mutua has recently released a statement praising the Visa ban and calling for the release of the names of persons on the list.
The so-called government spokesman has behaved in a manner that has put the entire PR profession into disrepute and derision. One friend has described him as “a nasty piece of work.” In fact charges should be preferred against Dr Mutua and his counterpart at the police headquarters, this Kiraithe man for spreading falsehoods. It is ludicrous that Kenyans expect their young ones and future generations to be model citizens incapable of picking up pangas to attack their neighbors when they lack role models and instead have the likes of Mutua and Kiraithe to look up to who repeatedly go on air to spread blatant lies in full view of their own children and even grand children. Remember the widely circulated story from Kiraithe and company to the effect that the clip showing a policeman shooting and killing an unarmed demonstrator in Kisumu was computer generated trickery akin to a Rambo movie? The latest is that the police officer involved, Edward Kirui has been arrested and will be charged with murder. See what I am talking about?
The inclusion of Mutua’s name on the list may just end up saving thousands of Kenyan youths from turning into serial liars and criminals.
Meanwhile the actions of the Kibaki administration clearly indicates that after weeks of uncertainty, the hardliners are firmly back at the helm. The idea of having both an Igad and East African Community meeting in Nairobi was the kind of evil idea that would only have emerged from the Kitchen cabinet. This group of old men seem to have been under the illusion that nobody would think much of the meetings and nobody would guess what their intentions were—namely to legitimize the Kibaki government. Actually this is one of the major causes of the crisis; that is people in the Kibaki government assuming that Kenyans are fools. The EAC meeting was postponed late yesterday and it is clear this happened because of the pressure from the opposition and the civil society.
What should worry Kenyans even more is that the hardliners are fully in charge as the so-called Annan peace talks are going on. It is already quite clear that the Kibaki camp will never change its’ position and they are only at the negotiating table to buy time so that things cool down.
Nothing but divine intervention can save Kenya now.
It was here in Kumekucha, early last month that we informed you that the International community was discussing possible Visa bans against prominent Kenyans who have contributed to the crisis in the country.
As you read this 10 Kenyans from both sides of the political divide are already on a list that should be made public soon. This initial list has no surprises and includes mainly individuals who should have had this Visa ban slapped on them years ago. Most of them featured prominently in the infamous Kroll report. As it is some analysts feel that it is too little late. However there is no denying the fact that it will hurt the individuals and their immediate families a great deal. Students will be deported from universities and wives who enjoyed frequent London or Dubai shopping trips will have less to talk and brag about at their next social.
But what should be even more interesting is the next list of 30 that the Americans have revealed that they are working on. Unconfirmed reports reaching Kumekucha indicate that the name of Dr Alfred Mutua the government spokesman may be on that list for issuing inflammatory statements before and after the crisis. Naturally this means that the name of his wife is also on the said list.
If this report turns out to be true numerous Kenyans will be delighted. It is even more hilarious because Mutua has recently released a statement praising the Visa ban and calling for the release of the names of persons on the list.
The so-called government spokesman has behaved in a manner that has put the entire PR profession into disrepute and derision. One friend has described him as “a nasty piece of work.” In fact charges should be preferred against Dr Mutua and his counterpart at the police headquarters, this Kiraithe man for spreading falsehoods. It is ludicrous that Kenyans expect their young ones and future generations to be model citizens incapable of picking up pangas to attack their neighbors when they lack role models and instead have the likes of Mutua and Kiraithe to look up to who repeatedly go on air to spread blatant lies in full view of their own children and even grand children. Remember the widely circulated story from Kiraithe and company to the effect that the clip showing a policeman shooting and killing an unarmed demonstrator in Kisumu was computer generated trickery akin to a Rambo movie? The latest is that the police officer involved, Edward Kirui has been arrested and will be charged with murder. See what I am talking about?
The inclusion of Mutua’s name on the list may just end up saving thousands of Kenyan youths from turning into serial liars and criminals.
Meanwhile the actions of the Kibaki administration clearly indicates that after weeks of uncertainty, the hardliners are firmly back at the helm. The idea of having both an Igad and East African Community meeting in Nairobi was the kind of evil idea that would only have emerged from the Kitchen cabinet. This group of old men seem to have been under the illusion that nobody would think much of the meetings and nobody would guess what their intentions were—namely to legitimize the Kibaki government. Actually this is one of the major causes of the crisis; that is people in the Kibaki government assuming that Kenyans are fools. The EAC meeting was postponed late yesterday and it is clear this happened because of the pressure from the opposition and the civil society.
What should worry Kenyans even more is that the hardliners are fully in charge as the so-called Annan peace talks are going on. It is already quite clear that the Kibaki camp will never change its’ position and they are only at the negotiating table to buy time so that things cool down.
Nothing but divine intervention can save Kenya now.
Is The Kenyan Economy On The Brink Of Shutting Down?
Plus: What will happen when you meet a Kibaki descendant at some cocktail party 30 years from now.
Business and economics is boring to most people, but I will keep this very simple, so please bear with me. This is very important and is bound to affect every Kenyan.
Over 300 CEOS based in Kenya recently came out in a strong lobby to political leaders to come back to their senses. Led by the brilliant Safaricom CEO Michael Joseph, the most important part of their message was a warning. Some politicians seem to think that if the violence were to stop today, life would immediately go back to normal. It is not quite as simple as that and after you read through this post, you will begin to understand why.
Let’s say you were a chief executive of a company handling consumer products, sitting somewhere in Industrial Area Nairobi. Where would your big markets be? Here I am sure I will surprise you.
Nairobi would naturally be your biggest market, especially the slum areas and low income estates. Have you ever wondered why every consumer product these days has a miniature size of everything? That is the market segment where most companies make their profits. Now we know the Kibera is virtually shut down and Mathare is almost there.
Then there is another problem. The vast majority of residents in those areas survive from hand to mouth. That means the Kshs 150 or 200 that they get paid daily for casual labor is what they will take to the shop to make their purchases for the day. Many of these people have not done any work since December 30th last year. Others make money from the daily sales of “mboga” (vegetables). We are all aware that many folks have not done any business since before the elections.
Back to our CEO seated in Nairobi. With things in a mess in Nairobi, it is only natural that you as CEO will need to look to your other large markets starting with Mombasa. Now don’t even go there because the tourism industry is no more. Interestingly there are many businesses in Nairobi that have been sustaining a large staff based on strong sales in Mombasa.
That would leave you as CEO with only the Mount Kenya region and parts of Eastern province which have also been affected indirectly because there are people there whose business relies on selling to customers in the affected regions of the country.
When you sit down and analyze the effects of the post election crisis, it becomes clear every single area of the economy has been affected and even if peace were to suddenly return now, over 50 per cent of the economy is gone with tourism (mainly at the Coast) and Kenya’s bread basket in the Rift Valley, topping the list of casualties.
The impact all this is having on unemployment is colossal. So colossal that it is a very serious threat to national security.
Interestingly these are boom times for certain service industries. One excellent example is the mobile telephony industry. When there is a crisis, communication increases and whatever little money that is flowing the economy will find its’ way into the pockets of mobile phone service providers like Safaricom and Celtel.
Let me end this post by saying something about the Kenya shilling. I don’t know how long the government will be able to prop up the Kenya shilling for. But there is suspicion that this is being done to allow some certain fat cats to transfer their local assets to some safe havens outside the country. Incidentally Swiss accounts and European cities are no longer considered safe (the Kroll report blew that myth sky high). New destinations include other African countries like Namibia (large amounts of the stolen Moi assets have been transferred there) and a few other African countries. These sources claim that as soon as this exercise is over, the shilling will drop to its’ real value (estimated at around Kshs 80 to the dollar currently and still falling).
P.S. Whatever happens next, history will remember Mwai Kibaki as the one term president and former economics professor who made a terrible miscalculation that cost Kenyans dearly. I don’t envy future generations of the Kibakis. Imagine meeting a young Kibaki somewhere 30 years from now. The conversation would go something like this.
You: Kibaki? Any relations to the former president?
Kibaki: I am the great grandson, but please keep it secret, my life has been miserable because of it and there is nowhere in the world I can hide.
You: You can’t really blame people can you, your great grandfather was responsible for the deaths of thousands of Kenyans and some very serious distraction. I’m sorry but this is too emotional for me, please allow me to mingle with other guests.
(You will then make a quick exit muttering unprintable words under your breath).
Business and economics is boring to most people, but I will keep this very simple, so please bear with me. This is very important and is bound to affect every Kenyan.
Over 300 CEOS based in Kenya recently came out in a strong lobby to political leaders to come back to their senses. Led by the brilliant Safaricom CEO Michael Joseph, the most important part of their message was a warning. Some politicians seem to think that if the violence were to stop today, life would immediately go back to normal. It is not quite as simple as that and after you read through this post, you will begin to understand why.
Let’s say you were a chief executive of a company handling consumer products, sitting somewhere in Industrial Area Nairobi. Where would your big markets be? Here I am sure I will surprise you.
Nairobi would naturally be your biggest market, especially the slum areas and low income estates. Have you ever wondered why every consumer product these days has a miniature size of everything? That is the market segment where most companies make their profits. Now we know the Kibera is virtually shut down and Mathare is almost there.
Then there is another problem. The vast majority of residents in those areas survive from hand to mouth. That means the Kshs 150 or 200 that they get paid daily for casual labor is what they will take to the shop to make their purchases for the day. Many of these people have not done any work since December 30th last year. Others make money from the daily sales of “mboga” (vegetables). We are all aware that many folks have not done any business since before the elections.
Back to our CEO seated in Nairobi. With things in a mess in Nairobi, it is only natural that you as CEO will need to look to your other large markets starting with Mombasa. Now don’t even go there because the tourism industry is no more. Interestingly there are many businesses in Nairobi that have been sustaining a large staff based on strong sales in Mombasa.
That would leave you as CEO with only the Mount Kenya region and parts of Eastern province which have also been affected indirectly because there are people there whose business relies on selling to customers in the affected regions of the country.
When you sit down and analyze the effects of the post election crisis, it becomes clear every single area of the economy has been affected and even if peace were to suddenly return now, over 50 per cent of the economy is gone with tourism (mainly at the Coast) and Kenya’s bread basket in the Rift Valley, topping the list of casualties.
The impact all this is having on unemployment is colossal. So colossal that it is a very serious threat to national security.
Interestingly these are boom times for certain service industries. One excellent example is the mobile telephony industry. When there is a crisis, communication increases and whatever little money that is flowing the economy will find its’ way into the pockets of mobile phone service providers like Safaricom and Celtel.
Let me end this post by saying something about the Kenya shilling. I don’t know how long the government will be able to prop up the Kenya shilling for. But there is suspicion that this is being done to allow some certain fat cats to transfer their local assets to some safe havens outside the country. Incidentally Swiss accounts and European cities are no longer considered safe (the Kroll report blew that myth sky high). New destinations include other African countries like Namibia (large amounts of the stolen Moi assets have been transferred there) and a few other African countries. These sources claim that as soon as this exercise is over, the shilling will drop to its’ real value (estimated at around Kshs 80 to the dollar currently and still falling).
P.S. Whatever happens next, history will remember Mwai Kibaki as the one term president and former economics professor who made a terrible miscalculation that cost Kenyans dearly. I don’t envy future generations of the Kibakis. Imagine meeting a young Kibaki somewhere 30 years from now. The conversation would go something like this.
You: Kibaki? Any relations to the former president?
Kibaki: I am the great grandson, but please keep it secret, my life has been miserable because of it and there is nowhere in the world I can hide.
You: You can’t really blame people can you, your great grandfather was responsible for the deaths of thousands of Kenyans and some very serious distraction. I’m sorry but this is too emotional for me, please allow me to mingle with other guests.
(You will then make a quick exit muttering unprintable words under your breath).
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Kumekucha Forecasts for 2008
The question on everybody’s mind is when will the current crisis end?
My answer: Not quickly enough. As you read this my firm belief is that the peace of Kenya is now out of the hands of the two major protagonists, namely the MP for Othaya Hon Mwai Kibaki and the MP for Langata Hon Raila Odinga. PNU are nervously cheering on Mungiki and ODM are nervously cheering on the Kalenjin, Luo and Luhya militia. Both parties hope that these violent groups will help them achieve their objectives. What they don’t seem to realize is that even if they sign an agreement today, ending the current violence will be very difficult. You see the problem with violence is that it begets more violence and it becomes an endless spiral or bottomless pit of violence and more violence. The truth is that negotiations should involve representatives of ordinary Kenyans. Back to answering the question. The violence will drag on for a number of weeks at the very least and for a couple of months at the most. It all depends on how quickly those involved in the negotiations move to address the core underlying issues that are the cause of the violence and were only triggered by what many saw as a stolen election.
To understand the three classes of Kenyans and what they wish for, please read my previous post.
What will happen to the economy?
Finance minister Amos “the stock exchange is not a fish market” Kimunya said with a straight face the other day that the Kenyan economy will hardly feel the effects of the violence if a quick agreement is reached in the ongoing negotiations. He even said that rebuilding and repairing the mess will spur growth.
One does not need to be an economist to realize that this cock and bull story is rubbish. The truth is that the Central bank has been making every effort to shore up the shilling by flooding the market with dollars in a vain attempt to ensure that their well laid plan do not change. But even the Central bank has so many dollars and no more.
Any day now we will see the shilling in a free fall against major foreign currencies like the dollar. I am told that a packet of maize flour is over Kshs 100/- in Malindi. This is just a sign of things to come. But what is even more worrying is the threat of serious hunger. Remember that the houses in the Rift Valley were not the only things that were being set on fire. Acres of maize and other foods were also being set on fire. If it is true that the Rift Valley is the bread basket of the nation, then we know what to expect, don’t we? Remember that even if the peace talks yield fruit quickly, this will help but it will not bring back the burnt food. Brace yourself for a weaker shilling and also to pay very high prices for food.
Read what experts say about the food situation in Kenya
What will happen politically?
Kenyans will end up with the many reforms that they have yearned for including a new constitution. However the sad question that keeps on nagging at me is that how much blood of Kenyans will pay for this? Actually only one man can begin to have any idea when it comes to answering this question. And that’s the MP for Othaya who currently wields the immense powers of the presidency of Kenya.
My answer: Not quickly enough. As you read this my firm belief is that the peace of Kenya is now out of the hands of the two major protagonists, namely the MP for Othaya Hon Mwai Kibaki and the MP for Langata Hon Raila Odinga. PNU are nervously cheering on Mungiki and ODM are nervously cheering on the Kalenjin, Luo and Luhya militia. Both parties hope that these violent groups will help them achieve their objectives. What they don’t seem to realize is that even if they sign an agreement today, ending the current violence will be very difficult. You see the problem with violence is that it begets more violence and it becomes an endless spiral or bottomless pit of violence and more violence. The truth is that negotiations should involve representatives of ordinary Kenyans. Back to answering the question. The violence will drag on for a number of weeks at the very least and for a couple of months at the most. It all depends on how quickly those involved in the negotiations move to address the core underlying issues that are the cause of the violence and were only triggered by what many saw as a stolen election.
To understand the three classes of Kenyans and what they wish for, please read my previous post.
What will happen to the economy?
Finance minister Amos “the stock exchange is not a fish market” Kimunya said with a straight face the other day that the Kenyan economy will hardly feel the effects of the violence if a quick agreement is reached in the ongoing negotiations. He even said that rebuilding and repairing the mess will spur growth.
One does not need to be an economist to realize that this cock and bull story is rubbish. The truth is that the Central bank has been making every effort to shore up the shilling by flooding the market with dollars in a vain attempt to ensure that their well laid plan do not change. But even the Central bank has so many dollars and no more.
Any day now we will see the shilling in a free fall against major foreign currencies like the dollar. I am told that a packet of maize flour is over Kshs 100/- in Malindi. This is just a sign of things to come. But what is even more worrying is the threat of serious hunger. Remember that the houses in the Rift Valley were not the only things that were being set on fire. Acres of maize and other foods were also being set on fire. If it is true that the Rift Valley is the bread basket of the nation, then we know what to expect, don’t we? Remember that even if the peace talks yield fruit quickly, this will help but it will not bring back the burnt food. Brace yourself for a weaker shilling and also to pay very high prices for food.
Read what experts say about the food situation in Kenya
What will happen politically?
Kenyans will end up with the many reforms that they have yearned for including a new constitution. However the sad question that keeps on nagging at me is that how much blood of Kenyans will pay for this? Actually only one man can begin to have any idea when it comes to answering this question. And that’s the MP for Othaya who currently wields the immense powers of the presidency of Kenya.
The Amazing Kumekucha Predictions
Regulars of Kumekucha have noted that nine out of ten times, I tend to correctly predict exactly what is going to happen next. My analysis which most readers start by disagreeing with, always end up being spot on. I am not one to brag; rather I wanted to give our numerous new readers a little background before I dive into today’s rather detailed post.
Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.
- When everybody else was calling political analyst Muahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in th event that he was defeated.
- Kumekucha kept on calling the coming elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right.
- In probably the most ominous post ever in this blog, on the even of the election Kumekucha I openly shared my fears on the elections and the big danger that lay ahead for Kenyans. Youi can read the post for yourself here.
There is really no big deal here. I believe 1,000 per cent that we are all prepared for certain times and to accomplish certain tasks during our lives. The trick is to listen to your inner voice and don’t ask too many questions.
It amazes me how from the launch of this blog, I have always found myself discussing the issue of the injustices committed against the Luo community in this country and the fact that many of their sons have been murdered. We have repeatedly said here that unless this injustices were addressed, they were a time bomb waiting to explode. I am greatly distressed over what has happened in our country but I dare say that somebody who has been reading Kumekucha over the last two years understands the issues much better that many other Kenyans. And I DON’T say that with a single iota of pride in me. Anybody else would have been prepared.
It is with this in mind that I will attempt to answer my reader’s question about what we should expect in Kenya over the next year or so.
We have suffered so much bad news in recent times so let me start with the good news.
Kenya will emerge from this crisis, a united nation and stronger that it has ever been. Certain “proud” tribes with a strong superiority complex will have a much deeper respect for others and we shall greatly thrive in our diversity. Kenya shall; have a new constitution which will give much more power to the common man and the horrors of the Kroll report and grand corruption where a handful of people own the nation will be a thing of the past. What will follow will be such immense economic growth and development that other countries in Africa and beyond will envy Kenya and wonder what it is about this country called Kenya.
But what scares me is the bridge that we have to cross to reach that Canaan.
Currently the divide between the rich and the desperate is very pronounced. In fact we have three different groups of people in Kenya with very different aspirations at the moment.
Firstly, the rich wonder why the peasant savages are slaughtering each other ) even if they have been paid to do so). They are desperate that things should go back to normal as soon as possible so that they can go back to their previous life and continue to make their money and do their deals. Some good folks in this group believe that if only Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga can sit down and agree to share power, everything will go back to normal and they will be able to have their old life back. Many of the people in this group have made arrangements of where in the world they are going to live if the situation continues the way it is currently.
Then we have Kenya’s know-it-all middle class folks. They are eager for this crisis to end as soon as possible so that they can go back to their old comfortable life. Some people in this group have been laid off and are very angry at either Raila or Kibaki depending on which side of the political divide they fall. Many of the people in this group are regular readers of this blog and are the owners of the very opinionated, biased and sometimes uninformed comments that they leave in this blog. Some of the wealthier middle class Kenyans view this whole business as a game of sorts, that they have to win.
The third group which has the vast majority is the group I will call the desperados. These are the ordinary Kenyans or ordinary Mwananchi, if you like. The problem is that most Kenyans in the other two classes do not understand these folks and neither are they interested in understanding the. This is one of the reasons why we are in the mess we are in today. Fascinatingly despite the hardships, deaths etc. there guys do not want the current crisis to be resolved too quickly. Many of those involved in violence have never been gainfully employed and would love for the violence to drag on for months and will in fact do anything for this to happen. Others are being fed in refugee camps and for the first time in a long time do not have to worry themselves sick about where their next meal is going to come from. I dare say that some of them are feeding much better now than they have ever fed in their entire lives. Very sad but also very true. This the cheap labor from which the filthy rich in Kenya have been able to make their fortunes from. This group dreams of genuine change in Kenya and a new political dispensation that will give them a fighting chance.
In my next post I make my predictions of what Kenyans can expect.
Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.
- When everybody else was calling political analyst Muahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in th event that he was defeated.
- Kumekucha kept on calling the coming elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right.
- In probably the most ominous post ever in this blog, on the even of the election Kumekucha I openly shared my fears on the elections and the big danger that lay ahead for Kenyans. Youi can read the post for yourself here.
There is really no big deal here. I believe 1,000 per cent that we are all prepared for certain times and to accomplish certain tasks during our lives. The trick is to listen to your inner voice and don’t ask too many questions.
It amazes me how from the launch of this blog, I have always found myself discussing the issue of the injustices committed against the Luo community in this country and the fact that many of their sons have been murdered. We have repeatedly said here that unless this injustices were addressed, they were a time bomb waiting to explode. I am greatly distressed over what has happened in our country but I dare say that somebody who has been reading Kumekucha over the last two years understands the issues much better that many other Kenyans. And I DON’T say that with a single iota of pride in me. Anybody else would have been prepared.
It is with this in mind that I will attempt to answer my reader’s question about what we should expect in Kenya over the next year or so.
We have suffered so much bad news in recent times so let me start with the good news.
Kenya will emerge from this crisis, a united nation and stronger that it has ever been. Certain “proud” tribes with a strong superiority complex will have a much deeper respect for others and we shall greatly thrive in our diversity. Kenya shall; have a new constitution which will give much more power to the common man and the horrors of the Kroll report and grand corruption where a handful of people own the nation will be a thing of the past. What will follow will be such immense economic growth and development that other countries in Africa and beyond will envy Kenya and wonder what it is about this country called Kenya.
But what scares me is the bridge that we have to cross to reach that Canaan.
Currently the divide between the rich and the desperate is very pronounced. In fact we have three different groups of people in Kenya with very different aspirations at the moment.
Firstly, the rich wonder why the peasant savages are slaughtering each other ) even if they have been paid to do so). They are desperate that things should go back to normal as soon as possible so that they can go back to their previous life and continue to make their money and do their deals. Some good folks in this group believe that if only Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga can sit down and agree to share power, everything will go back to normal and they will be able to have their old life back. Many of the people in this group have made arrangements of where in the world they are going to live if the situation continues the way it is currently.
Then we have Kenya’s know-it-all middle class folks. They are eager for this crisis to end as soon as possible so that they can go back to their old comfortable life. Some people in this group have been laid off and are very angry at either Raila or Kibaki depending on which side of the political divide they fall. Many of the people in this group are regular readers of this blog and are the owners of the very opinionated, biased and sometimes uninformed comments that they leave in this blog. Some of the wealthier middle class Kenyans view this whole business as a game of sorts, that they have to win.
The third group which has the vast majority is the group I will call the desperados. These are the ordinary Kenyans or ordinary Mwananchi, if you like. The problem is that most Kenyans in the other two classes do not understand these folks and neither are they interested in understanding the. This is one of the reasons why we are in the mess we are in today. Fascinatingly despite the hardships, deaths etc. there guys do not want the current crisis to be resolved too quickly. Many of those involved in violence have never been gainfully employed and would love for the violence to drag on for months and will in fact do anything for this to happen. Others are being fed in refugee camps and for the first time in a long time do not have to worry themselves sick about where their next meal is going to come from. I dare say that some of them are feeding much better now than they have ever fed in their entire lives. Very sad but also very true. This the cheap labor from which the filthy rich in Kenya have been able to make their fortunes from. This group dreams of genuine change in Kenya and a new political dispensation that will give them a fighting chance.
In my next post I make my predictions of what Kenyans can expect.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Strong Case For A New Republic Of Mount Kenya
Proof of America’s role in fanning current chaos and their solid support for Kibaki
Proof that the civil war may have already started as security forces from different tribes defy orders from their superiors
I can’t remember when it first started but recently it has become clear that it is difficult to have a discussion on the situation in Kenya with my Kikuyu beauty without one of us getting emotional and even losing their temper. (For those who are new to this blog, this blogger is the product of a mixed marriage between a Kamba father and a Bukusu mother and has been happily married to a Kikuyu beauty for over 22 years now)
This state of affairs in my house has really surprised me because going into the elections Mrs Kumekucha was a staunch Raila supporter. This is even stranger because she has no relatives in the Rift Valley and has therefore NOT been affected by any of the killings. In fact she was as puzzled as I was at the wild celebrations my in-laws were involved in after Mwai Kibaki was announced winner (despite the tension in the country and the fact that even a young child could see that the elections were stolen).
My 17 year old son has been a great help in sorting out that problem. All he has had to do is ask which side of the divide he should support and that ends the heated argument right on its’ tracks.
But I have been thinking deeply about this shift in emotions and have done my own research and I have realized that Kenya is in much bigger trouble than most people realize.
Ever since this blog was launched in May 2005, our main theme has been the tribal tensions in Kenya which started during the Jomo Kenyatta administration. We have also talked at length about the widening gap between the rich and the poor and how it has always been a time bomb waiting to explode. Few Kenyans have taken us seriously until December 30th.
The strong feeling amongst supporters of President Kibaki is that the crisis in the country has been actively promoted and sponsored by Raila Odinga and ODM and the biggest culprit is the Luo tribe (although in reality the biggest problem is clearly in the Rift Valley). They also feel that the strong anti-Kikuyu sentiments from the rest of the country are borne out of jealousy from the rest of the Kenyan tribes who are mostly lazy and do not possess the same business acumen and enterprising nature of the Kikuyu. They wonder why the Luo cannot wait until 2012, when the Kikuyu waited 10 years as former president Moi rigged 2 presidential elections (1992 and 1997). Members of this community are mostly eager to get back to work and to put the elections behind them but are greatly angered by the calls for mass action which makes this impossible.
The Luo, Kalenjin and most of the tribes in the 6 provinces that Raila Odinga won, feel that they have had more than enough of the Kikuyu who they feel are domineering and completely insensitive to the fact that there are 41 other tribes in the country. The last straw that broke the camel’s back is the disputed presidential elections of last year where to them the Kikuyu now want to rub their dominance in the face of other Kenyans by wanting to rule them by force, even after their candidate President Kibaki clearly lost the presidential election.
What has made this whole issue even more complex is the fact that blood has now been spilt on both sides. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that healing the differences now will take decades at best and there is a good chance that the healing will never take place. That is the reality.
As drastic as secession looks, it is increasingly looking like the only solution that can work long term. Why not give the Kibaki supporters their own country, mainly surrounding the Mount Kenya region (The Republic of Mount Kenya?) and then the rest of the 6 provinces of Kenya (The Republic of Kenya) can also have their own country. The immediate effect of this will be to dramatically cool tensions between the two sides and there are even those analysts who believe that there will be closer co-operation between the communities when they are independent.
There is little doubt that the Kikuyu will continue to dominate business in both republics because of their exceptional enterprising nature, but the difference this time is that the tensions will have been eliminated by the fact that both sides will have their own republics.
The most important result of this bold move will be that it will save thousands of lives and avert the looming civil war that now seems inevitable. Indeed there are those who believe that a low key civil war has already started in Kenya (see this article).
The biggest stumbling block to any solution remains the Americans. Recently there has been a well publicized apparent spat between the Kenyan government and the Americans. No doubt it has fooled many naïve Kenyans (as it was meant to in the wake of increased awareness of what the Americans are doing quietly as part of their foreign policy strategy for the region). Read this article that tables overwhelming proof of American mischief in Kenya and how it has contributed to the current crisis. The Americans don’t give a hoot how much Kenyan blood is spilt and indeed analysts at the American embassy are already keenly aware that the country is on the verge of a very bloody civil conflict. The Kenyan public will make a giant step forward the minute they see the Americans for who they really are.
Email I received yesterday;
Dear Chris,
First of all let me thank you for the good work that you're doing and keeping it real. I have been reading your blog for the past two years and have to admit,it's conscious about the common Kenyan Mwananchi, may God be with you always. I don't have much to say about what's happening in our country now,it's rather evident. I would like to bring something to your attention though. Yester evening on KTN Jioni, there was a very interesting piece of news that showed there's light at the end of the tunnel. There was this couple that just wedded in Mwea, the husband was luo and the wife kikuyu, you should have seen the joy in both their faces, families and friends. Chris, i was moved. This proved wrong very many people who saw it given the history between these two tribes.
One of the root problems to our current situation is tribalism which is deeply rooted amongst most of our folks. Am in such a relationship and it has not been easy. Al in all, we must shun tribalism and see each other as people. I pray for peace and Justice and that people learn from the couple in Mwea. God bless Kenya...
Proof that the civil war may have already started as security forces from different tribes defy orders from their superiors
I can’t remember when it first started but recently it has become clear that it is difficult to have a discussion on the situation in Kenya with my Kikuyu beauty without one of us getting emotional and even losing their temper. (For those who are new to this blog, this blogger is the product of a mixed marriage between a Kamba father and a Bukusu mother and has been happily married to a Kikuyu beauty for over 22 years now)
This state of affairs in my house has really surprised me because going into the elections Mrs Kumekucha was a staunch Raila supporter. This is even stranger because she has no relatives in the Rift Valley and has therefore NOT been affected by any of the killings. In fact she was as puzzled as I was at the wild celebrations my in-laws were involved in after Mwai Kibaki was announced winner (despite the tension in the country and the fact that even a young child could see that the elections were stolen).
My 17 year old son has been a great help in sorting out that problem. All he has had to do is ask which side of the divide he should support and that ends the heated argument right on its’ tracks.
But I have been thinking deeply about this shift in emotions and have done my own research and I have realized that Kenya is in much bigger trouble than most people realize.
Ever since this blog was launched in May 2005, our main theme has been the tribal tensions in Kenya which started during the Jomo Kenyatta administration. We have also talked at length about the widening gap between the rich and the poor and how it has always been a time bomb waiting to explode. Few Kenyans have taken us seriously until December 30th.
The strong feeling amongst supporters of President Kibaki is that the crisis in the country has been actively promoted and sponsored by Raila Odinga and ODM and the biggest culprit is the Luo tribe (although in reality the biggest problem is clearly in the Rift Valley). They also feel that the strong anti-Kikuyu sentiments from the rest of the country are borne out of jealousy from the rest of the Kenyan tribes who are mostly lazy and do not possess the same business acumen and enterprising nature of the Kikuyu. They wonder why the Luo cannot wait until 2012, when the Kikuyu waited 10 years as former president Moi rigged 2 presidential elections (1992 and 1997). Members of this community are mostly eager to get back to work and to put the elections behind them but are greatly angered by the calls for mass action which makes this impossible.
The Luo, Kalenjin and most of the tribes in the 6 provinces that Raila Odinga won, feel that they have had more than enough of the Kikuyu who they feel are domineering and completely insensitive to the fact that there are 41 other tribes in the country. The last straw that broke the camel’s back is the disputed presidential elections of last year where to them the Kikuyu now want to rub their dominance in the face of other Kenyans by wanting to rule them by force, even after their candidate President Kibaki clearly lost the presidential election.
What has made this whole issue even more complex is the fact that blood has now been spilt on both sides. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that healing the differences now will take decades at best and there is a good chance that the healing will never take place. That is the reality.
As drastic as secession looks, it is increasingly looking like the only solution that can work long term. Why not give the Kibaki supporters their own country, mainly surrounding the Mount Kenya region (The Republic of Mount Kenya?) and then the rest of the 6 provinces of Kenya (The Republic of Kenya) can also have their own country. The immediate effect of this will be to dramatically cool tensions between the two sides and there are even those analysts who believe that there will be closer co-operation between the communities when they are independent.
There is little doubt that the Kikuyu will continue to dominate business in both republics because of their exceptional enterprising nature, but the difference this time is that the tensions will have been eliminated by the fact that both sides will have their own republics.
The most important result of this bold move will be that it will save thousands of lives and avert the looming civil war that now seems inevitable. Indeed there are those who believe that a low key civil war has already started in Kenya (see this article).
The biggest stumbling block to any solution remains the Americans. Recently there has been a well publicized apparent spat between the Kenyan government and the Americans. No doubt it has fooled many naïve Kenyans (as it was meant to in the wake of increased awareness of what the Americans are doing quietly as part of their foreign policy strategy for the region). Read this article that tables overwhelming proof of American mischief in Kenya and how it has contributed to the current crisis. The Americans don’t give a hoot how much Kenyan blood is spilt and indeed analysts at the American embassy are already keenly aware that the country is on the verge of a very bloody civil conflict. The Kenyan public will make a giant step forward the minute they see the Americans for who they really are.
Email I received yesterday;
Dear Chris,
First of all let me thank you for the good work that you're doing and keeping it real. I have been reading your blog for the past two years and have to admit,it's conscious about the common Kenyan Mwananchi, may God be with you always. I don't have much to say about what's happening in our country now,it's rather evident. I would like to bring something to your attention though. Yester evening on KTN Jioni, there was a very interesting piece of news that showed there's light at the end of the tunnel. There was this couple that just wedded in Mwea, the husband was luo and the wife kikuyu, you should have seen the joy in both their faces, families and friends. Chris, i was moved. This proved wrong very many people who saw it given the history between these two tribes.
One of the root problems to our current situation is tribalism which is deeply rooted amongst most of our folks. Am in such a relationship and it has not been easy. Al in all, we must shun tribalism and see each other as people. I pray for peace and Justice and that people learn from the couple in Mwea. God bless Kenya...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Kenya Polls Crisis: What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
Kenyans Should Prepare Themselves For A Nightmare Where Their Worst Fears Become Reality
Since Mwai Kibaki and a few handlers fiddled with presidential election votes and stole the election thus plunging the country into chaos, many Kenyans have come out calling for peace.
Even the media has been convinced to censor itself in many instances (to avoid incitement) for the sake of peace. So far nothing has worked and peace in Kenya has continued to be elusive.
Few have really bothered to ask themselves why Kenya has stubbornly refused to return to the peace and tranquility we had all taken for granted, and the media has continued to play games. Let the world know today that when the police chase rioters into the slum area of Kibera and spray bullets into houses with rather “porous” walls, according to the Kenyan media, this is not news. Only the Standard newspaper under considerable pressure occasionally dares to include such occurrences in a major article somewhere in the newspaper.
Naturally everybody is eager that things should go back to normal as soon as possible. After all our children need to go to school and we need to earn a living and therefore anybody who does not promote peace is the enemy (like Kumekucha. Only that most people do not know that Kumekucha wants peace more badly than most, that is why I have been warning about tribal tensions in this blog for over 2 years now).
It is yet to dawn on the minds of most peace-seeking Kenyans that there is no way that peace will come unless we address the root cause of the problem. I challenge you to tell me how else peace can come. I hear somebody saying; by telling the Luos and Kelenjins to shut up. (That is the “ingenious suggestion” of some commentators in this blog).
It is also yet to dawn on most Kenyans that the biggest hindrance to the restoration of peace are not violent Luos or angry Kalenjins. It is not the mass action called for by Raila Odinga and his gang.
It is the gentleman whom most of you saw seated taking notes as he listened to a carefully selected delegation of private sector personalities (most of whom helped fund his campaign) the pother day in State House. That man calls himself the president of the republic of Kenya. If this was not such serious business, that is laughable. This is the same man whose wife slapped a civil servant in public in front of the poor man’s family. Rumours have persisted that the same woman (who obviously needs medical help) slapped Gitobu Imanyara in State House who is said to have responded with a punch that floored the first lady. Security personnel then descended on Imanyara and caused him serious harm, so the rumours say. The most serious issue here is not whether those persistent rumours are true or not. It is the fact that they can be linked to the so-called president of the republic of Kenya here.
This is the same man who during a campaign meeting last year exchanged words with a member of the public over their rowdy behaviour. I [petrsonally thought that the nexyt thing he was gpoing to do was to personally remove the man from the meeting. PLEASE!!!
This is the one man in Kenya and the entire world who has all the powers to end the crisis and deaths right away. The truth is that at this hour when Kenya needs leadership most, this man does not have the courage to rise to the occasion. But olet me ask a question even after saying all this; Who started the fire in the first place?
Here are 3 options this man has at his disposal to return the situation in Kenya to normal.
1) Resign like a gentleman on the grounds that people doubt his win and spearhead the formation of an interim government whose sole purpose will be to prepare the country for a fresh general elections. I guarantee you this will put an immediate stop to the violence and life will go back to normal for Kenyans.
2) To humble himself for the sake of Kenya the country (he loves?) and invite the opposition for serious negotiations, preferably at a neutral place. This business of inviting them at State House is playing power games when Kenyans are dying. He will not need to step down from the precious presidency for this one and if there is sincerity on his side he will be surprised at the kind of concessions he can get from the folks he robbed in broad daylight last December.
3) Alternatively, since the country is already a police state, to stop pretending that it is NOT and to arrest all opposition politicians declare emergency law and use the military to cow everybody back into line. And while he is at it declare Kenya an African socialist country, dictatorship and a monarchy at that and stop this pretence of trying to fool the world that we had presidential elections in Kenya last December. This can also work like a dream. You will be amazed at what can happen when somebody comes out with the truth. It is true that the truth always sets even evil politicians and entire countries free. This oretence and hypocracy is killing us!!!
Now instead of exercising his powers (albeit obtained dishonestly) the occupant of State House just sits there as his wife slaps people around and his policemen shoot innocent people dead in cold blood (after which the police spokesman says that TV news footage is the work of some creative mind on a computer). Meanwhile he is busy using the one single weapon that has mostly worked for politicians, appealing to the tribal sentiments of his tribes-mates, which by the way is incitement and is one of the major causes of the violence in Kenya. The fascinating thing is that he is dealing with intelligent people and some of his tribes-mates have already seen him for what he is and have come out and spoken boldly. (Thank you Maina Kiai.) There are of course many others, some of whom saw him for what he really is very early on like John Githongo. Githongo fled the country and warned us all, only that we did not take him seriously. Now we have only ourselves to blame because we received enough warnings and in good time too. Or did we think that Githongo wanted an excuse to get residency in the UK?
So while the “sensible” Kenyans continue to appeal for peace and calm, both sides of the divide have a number of nasty surprises up their sleeves for us all.
What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
1) Nobody seems to have noticed that Mwai Kibaki is NOT interested in any negotiations. He is the president and if you don’t want to wait until 2012, meza wembe (swallow a razor blade). He has the total support of the Americans. Mta-do?. This evil super power which most Kenyans believe is angelic and can do no wrong has been making very hypocritical statements in public and doing the very opposite in secret. I put it to you that the illegitimate government of Mwai Kibaki would not last one day without the support of Uncle Sam.
But alas, Uncle Sam does not really care how many Kenyan “monkeys” die as long as their precious plans for East Africa remain in place, especially their policy on dealing with terrorists. The Americans WILL NEVER allow Raila Odinga to be president of Kenya simply because he has said openly that he would fight for justice. The Americans are NOT interested in justice, they are interested in RESULTS and it does not really matter what bloodbath happens in Kenya as long as Americans are safe. What makes matters worse is that George W. Bush is on his last term and so “political considerations” are really not that critical.
Mwai Kibai knows this and as a result will not budge from State House, no matter how many Kenyans die. As long as his immediate family is safe, (including his serial-slapper wife) Kibaki would care less of 1 million people die. The sad thing here is that Raila Odinga and company think that Kibaki will eventually be moved by the deaths of Kenyans. So guess what is inevitably going to happen?
2) Kibaki insiders have been arguing back and forth for weeks now over the pros and cons of arresting the Pentagon top brass and charging them in court. Had they taken this decision early, it may have worked, but now as they dither; it is no longer a viable option. But guess what? The fact that they are still discussing it means that there is a huge possibility that they will carry it out. I leave it to you to imagine what will happen if Raila Odinga and William Ruto are arrested. I have only two words to describe the consequences. SHUT DOWN.
3) The game Mwai Kibaki is playing now is what I call the “vulture game”. The vulture circles at a distance as an able bodied man struggles across the desert without food or water. The Vulture is a very patient bird. It will never attack. It just waits patiently circling all the time to ensure that no other vulture lays claim to it’s prey. When the man finally collapses in exhaustion, the vulture will still not move. It will wait for death. Always circling lower and lower until finally it lands on its’ prey.
The powers of the office of president of Kenya are such that virtually all the holders of the office have often confused themselves for the Almighty himself. With those powers and in the comfort of State House Mwai Kibaki can afford to wait until the peasants have tired of killing each other. Until the so-called brave Kenyans are starving and have to get back to work to feed their families.
So what we should expect of Kenya is another Zimbabwe. Hyper inflation where you will need a car-boot-full of Kenya shillings to buy a few drinks at your local. Mwai Kibaki and his cronies do not believe it will reach there. So far they have successfully propped up the Kenya shilling. In fact the shilling appreciated sharply one day recently when there was terrible violence, tension and uncertainty in the country, some investors Kenya has!
The shilling remains bravely strong above the psychological Kshs 70 mark. Kumekucha’s humble opinion is that the Kenya shilling will hold out for some time, maybe even a month, but when it starts falling, it will fall like a heavy stone.
4) If you are not yet scared then what the ODM side has in store for Kenyans should freak you out. Remember that these guys worked hard and won the general elections, which was then “stolen” from them in broad daylight right in front of the eyes of the world. In case you are not a Kenyan and have no idea what Kenyans do to thieves then let me tell you they execute mob justice and kick, stone and club thieves to death. They love to do that and think nothing of the bloody mess. ODM can not dare do this to the rather powerful thief this time, but I am trying to illustrate the anger they feel.
Especially one man called Raila Amollo Odinga. Let me tell you that the man has not even started doing what he knows how to do so well. Many readers of this blog have laughed off the economic boycott plan. Soon the tears in their eyes will not be from laughter but from crying. Watch what happens in the next few days.
This is what I call holding a man by his balls (pardon my expression). What has driven Kenyan politics since 1963 has been one thing and one thing alone. MONEY. Touch or threaten a politician’s money and you have him by the balls. What does a man do when somebody holds him there, they cry for mercy and submit or they fight back with “murder” at the top of their mind. Watch what happens in the next few weeks as the economic boycott is implemented fully.
Remember that there is a huge middle class in Kenya that voted ODM. In fact just half of it is capable of shutting down a number of corporates in just a few days. The really scary thing is how far these ODM guys will go in economic boycotts and sabotage.
I have been wrong before and I have also been right before, this time I pray that I am wrong but I fear that I am too close to what will actually unfold before our very eyes.
Believe me when I say that only divine intervention can save Kenya now.
Oh, there is one thing Kenyans can do, but it is a virtual impossibility. Our Kikuyu brothers and sisters can all rise up and say “NO” to the dictatorship of Mwai Kibaki. To be fair quite a number of them have already done this, but not nearly enough to make an impact.
Since Mwai Kibaki and a few handlers fiddled with presidential election votes and stole the election thus plunging the country into chaos, many Kenyans have come out calling for peace.
Even the media has been convinced to censor itself in many instances (to avoid incitement) for the sake of peace. So far nothing has worked and peace in Kenya has continued to be elusive.
Few have really bothered to ask themselves why Kenya has stubbornly refused to return to the peace and tranquility we had all taken for granted, and the media has continued to play games. Let the world know today that when the police chase rioters into the slum area of Kibera and spray bullets into houses with rather “porous” walls, according to the Kenyan media, this is not news. Only the Standard newspaper under considerable pressure occasionally dares to include such occurrences in a major article somewhere in the newspaper.
Naturally everybody is eager that things should go back to normal as soon as possible. After all our children need to go to school and we need to earn a living and therefore anybody who does not promote peace is the enemy (like Kumekucha. Only that most people do not know that Kumekucha wants peace more badly than most, that is why I have been warning about tribal tensions in this blog for over 2 years now).
It is yet to dawn on the minds of most peace-seeking Kenyans that there is no way that peace will come unless we address the root cause of the problem. I challenge you to tell me how else peace can come. I hear somebody saying; by telling the Luos and Kelenjins to shut up. (That is the “ingenious suggestion” of some commentators in this blog).
It is also yet to dawn on most Kenyans that the biggest hindrance to the restoration of peace are not violent Luos or angry Kalenjins. It is not the mass action called for by Raila Odinga and his gang.
It is the gentleman whom most of you saw seated taking notes as he listened to a carefully selected delegation of private sector personalities (most of whom helped fund his campaign) the pother day in State House. That man calls himself the president of the republic of Kenya. If this was not such serious business, that is laughable. This is the same man whose wife slapped a civil servant in public in front of the poor man’s family. Rumours have persisted that the same woman (who obviously needs medical help) slapped Gitobu Imanyara in State House who is said to have responded with a punch that floored the first lady. Security personnel then descended on Imanyara and caused him serious harm, so the rumours say. The most serious issue here is not whether those persistent rumours are true or not. It is the fact that they can be linked to the so-called president of the republic of Kenya here.
This is the same man who during a campaign meeting last year exchanged words with a member of the public over their rowdy behaviour. I [petrsonally thought that the nexyt thing he was gpoing to do was to personally remove the man from the meeting. PLEASE!!!
This is the one man in Kenya and the entire world who has all the powers to end the crisis and deaths right away. The truth is that at this hour when Kenya needs leadership most, this man does not have the courage to rise to the occasion. But olet me ask a question even after saying all this; Who started the fire in the first place?
Here are 3 options this man has at his disposal to return the situation in Kenya to normal.
1) Resign like a gentleman on the grounds that people doubt his win and spearhead the formation of an interim government whose sole purpose will be to prepare the country for a fresh general elections. I guarantee you this will put an immediate stop to the violence and life will go back to normal for Kenyans.
2) To humble himself for the sake of Kenya the country (he loves?) and invite the opposition for serious negotiations, preferably at a neutral place. This business of inviting them at State House is playing power games when Kenyans are dying. He will not need to step down from the precious presidency for this one and if there is sincerity on his side he will be surprised at the kind of concessions he can get from the folks he robbed in broad daylight last December.
3) Alternatively, since the country is already a police state, to stop pretending that it is NOT and to arrest all opposition politicians declare emergency law and use the military to cow everybody back into line. And while he is at it declare Kenya an African socialist country, dictatorship and a monarchy at that and stop this pretence of trying to fool the world that we had presidential elections in Kenya last December. This can also work like a dream. You will be amazed at what can happen when somebody comes out with the truth. It is true that the truth always sets even evil politicians and entire countries free. This oretence and hypocracy is killing us!!!
Now instead of exercising his powers (albeit obtained dishonestly) the occupant of State House just sits there as his wife slaps people around and his policemen shoot innocent people dead in cold blood (after which the police spokesman says that TV news footage is the work of some creative mind on a computer). Meanwhile he is busy using the one single weapon that has mostly worked for politicians, appealing to the tribal sentiments of his tribes-mates, which by the way is incitement and is one of the major causes of the violence in Kenya. The fascinating thing is that he is dealing with intelligent people and some of his tribes-mates have already seen him for what he is and have come out and spoken boldly. (Thank you Maina Kiai.) There are of course many others, some of whom saw him for what he really is very early on like John Githongo. Githongo fled the country and warned us all, only that we did not take him seriously. Now we have only ourselves to blame because we received enough warnings and in good time too. Or did we think that Githongo wanted an excuse to get residency in the UK?
So while the “sensible” Kenyans continue to appeal for peace and calm, both sides of the divide have a number of nasty surprises up their sleeves for us all.
What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
1) Nobody seems to have noticed that Mwai Kibaki is NOT interested in any negotiations. He is the president and if you don’t want to wait until 2012, meza wembe (swallow a razor blade). He has the total support of the Americans. Mta-do?. This evil super power which most Kenyans believe is angelic and can do no wrong has been making very hypocritical statements in public and doing the very opposite in secret. I put it to you that the illegitimate government of Mwai Kibaki would not last one day without the support of Uncle Sam.
But alas, Uncle Sam does not really care how many Kenyan “monkeys” die as long as their precious plans for East Africa remain in place, especially their policy on dealing with terrorists. The Americans WILL NEVER allow Raila Odinga to be president of Kenya simply because he has said openly that he would fight for justice. The Americans are NOT interested in justice, they are interested in RESULTS and it does not really matter what bloodbath happens in Kenya as long as Americans are safe. What makes matters worse is that George W. Bush is on his last term and so “political considerations” are really not that critical.
Mwai Kibai knows this and as a result will not budge from State House, no matter how many Kenyans die. As long as his immediate family is safe, (including his serial-slapper wife) Kibaki would care less of 1 million people die. The sad thing here is that Raila Odinga and company think that Kibaki will eventually be moved by the deaths of Kenyans. So guess what is inevitably going to happen?
2) Kibaki insiders have been arguing back and forth for weeks now over the pros and cons of arresting the Pentagon top brass and charging them in court. Had they taken this decision early, it may have worked, but now as they dither; it is no longer a viable option. But guess what? The fact that they are still discussing it means that there is a huge possibility that they will carry it out. I leave it to you to imagine what will happen if Raila Odinga and William Ruto are arrested. I have only two words to describe the consequences. SHUT DOWN.
3) The game Mwai Kibaki is playing now is what I call the “vulture game”. The vulture circles at a distance as an able bodied man struggles across the desert without food or water. The Vulture is a very patient bird. It will never attack. It just waits patiently circling all the time to ensure that no other vulture lays claim to it’s prey. When the man finally collapses in exhaustion, the vulture will still not move. It will wait for death. Always circling lower and lower until finally it lands on its’ prey.
The powers of the office of president of Kenya are such that virtually all the holders of the office have often confused themselves for the Almighty himself. With those powers and in the comfort of State House Mwai Kibaki can afford to wait until the peasants have tired of killing each other. Until the so-called brave Kenyans are starving and have to get back to work to feed their families.
So what we should expect of Kenya is another Zimbabwe. Hyper inflation where you will need a car-boot-full of Kenya shillings to buy a few drinks at your local. Mwai Kibaki and his cronies do not believe it will reach there. So far they have successfully propped up the Kenya shilling. In fact the shilling appreciated sharply one day recently when there was terrible violence, tension and uncertainty in the country, some investors Kenya has!
The shilling remains bravely strong above the psychological Kshs 70 mark. Kumekucha’s humble opinion is that the Kenya shilling will hold out for some time, maybe even a month, but when it starts falling, it will fall like a heavy stone.
4) If you are not yet scared then what the ODM side has in store for Kenyans should freak you out. Remember that these guys worked hard and won the general elections, which was then “stolen” from them in broad daylight right in front of the eyes of the world. In case you are not a Kenyan and have no idea what Kenyans do to thieves then let me tell you they execute mob justice and kick, stone and club thieves to death. They love to do that and think nothing of the bloody mess. ODM can not dare do this to the rather powerful thief this time, but I am trying to illustrate the anger they feel.
Especially one man called Raila Amollo Odinga. Let me tell you that the man has not even started doing what he knows how to do so well. Many readers of this blog have laughed off the economic boycott plan. Soon the tears in their eyes will not be from laughter but from crying. Watch what happens in the next few days.
This is what I call holding a man by his balls (pardon my expression). What has driven Kenyan politics since 1963 has been one thing and one thing alone. MONEY. Touch or threaten a politician’s money and you have him by the balls. What does a man do when somebody holds him there, they cry for mercy and submit or they fight back with “murder” at the top of their mind. Watch what happens in the next few weeks as the economic boycott is implemented fully.
Remember that there is a huge middle class in Kenya that voted ODM. In fact just half of it is capable of shutting down a number of corporates in just a few days. The really scary thing is how far these ODM guys will go in economic boycotts and sabotage.
I have been wrong before and I have also been right before, this time I pray that I am wrong but I fear that I am too close to what will actually unfold before our very eyes.
Believe me when I say that only divine intervention can save Kenya now.
Oh, there is one thing Kenyans can do, but it is a virtual impossibility. Our Kikuyu brothers and sisters can all rise up and say “NO” to the dictatorship of Mwai Kibaki. To be fair quite a number of them have already done this, but not nearly enough to make an impact.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
How Long Can Mwai Kibaki Survive?
The angry reaction from a section of suspect readers of this blog illustrates the current mood in State House perfectly.
Why do I call the readers of a blog suspect? For the simple reason that their behaviour is bizarre to say the least. Their comments clearly suggest that they abhor and strongly disagree with the content in this blog. Ordinarily when you do not like something that you see on the web, you move on. Time is precious. And yet this group of readers have stayed on, saying everything they know how to discredit every story published here. They have refused to leave. Make your own conclusions as to who they really are and what their real objective is.
When I re-introduced comment moderation yesterday, this group was extremely angry. Threats poured in as I moderated and I deleted most of them. It was easy to sense the frustration at the fact that things did not go their way. The carefully and well thought out damage they had planned for the most popular Kenyan blog had been thwarted.
The mood is the same inside Mwai Kibaki’s State house as handlers scramble to find a way to keep the Kibaki administration going for another couple of months. Their plan to enforce the daylight vote theft has met with much stronger resistance than they had imagined. Despite the largest deployment of security forces countrywide in the history of the country, the situation is much worse than it was on 30th December, the ill-fated day when a few individuals inside State House decided to bite the bullet and execute a broad day light robbery of the presidential elections.
Still Kibaki hopes against all hope that the whole crisis will somehow blow over and Kenyans and the international community will come to that place where they accept him as their president for the next 5 years. But the Kibaki think tank is up against enormous odds and it is probably dawning on them just how expensive stealing an election can be.
On the political front there is a problem that scares Mwai Kibaki, the economics professor, more than anything else. In fact much more than Raila Odinga and 6 months of mass action. That thing is members of the Kikuyu tribe driven out of their land. Many of our readers here have no interest of history but the colonial government did many things to Africans which they got away with. Things went badly wrong for them when they drove Kikuyus out of their land. You just don’t do that.
This time around the Kikuyu have been driven from their land by members of the Kalenjin tribe. Information reaching this blogger is to the effect that already the reverberations of this land issue are starting to be felt amongst Members of parliament from Kikuyu areas. Chances are high that they will soon start to break ranks with the rest of the community. Kenyans are about to find out just how close and devoted to the land those from the house of Mumbi are. The minute the Kikuyu unity fails, the Kibaki administration will hardly survive a few weeks.
But even if the Kikuyu unity somehow holds, the entire world community has rejected the presidential results. In other words nobody who matters in the world believes that Mwai Kibaki won the presidential vote. What everybody does not seem to agree on is the way forward from this truth. Some say the country is not ready for a re-run. Others say that nothing else can solve this crisis short of another presidential election. Despite the tensions I tend to believe that only this second alternative will work to get the nation out of its’ current crisis.
Meanwhile Raila Odinga and ODM have announced that they have now halted their mass action protest and will now seek other means. Apparently those other means have been leaked out and now most people know that it is going to be some form of economic boycott where ODM will ask its’ supporters to boycott certain products and companies who support the illegal government of Mwai Kibaki. Will this new strategy work? Actually everything depends on execution, but if this plan is carried out well, then it could end up being much more effective than the street protests.
But even as the government has to deal with all these immediate emergencies there is parliament looming ever closer and there is no guarantee that the huge “cash incentives” currently being thrown around will work as was proved by the election of the speaker which the government side lost narrowly despite heavy investment.
Incidentally parliament requires a simple majority to pass a vote of no confidence against the Kibaki government and send the country back to the polls`. Some analysts think that this is unlikely because the sitting MPs would not like to face another expensive campaign where they are not sure of winning. This time, this is not quite true because every member who votes for such a motion will be a hero of the people and will have no problem retaining their seats in the ODM strongholds in such a snap election.
The truth of the matter is that President Kibaki and PNU have lost quite a bit of support after the events of December 30th and ODM and Raila have just been gaining support by the day.
Now concerning money, what many analysts have failed to realize is the huge expenditure that has been used to retain law and order since December 30th. And yet the traditional cash cow of tourism is no more with tourist hotels in Mombasa virtually empty. Tax collection has been at a very low ebb because there are numerous businesses which have not earned any income since before the ill-fated elections. The expenses related to maintaining the peace remain very high.
Experts believe that the government will soon launch instruments of borrowing from the public to get the cash to keep the country going. But one wonders how investors will view a government T-Bill issue in Kenya shillings when it looks like Kenya may end up being another Zimbabwe with hyper inflation in just a few months.
Don’t even mention the expensive exercise of propping up the Kenya shilling that the Central Bank has been busy with in recent times. Predictably when they run out of their forex reserves, the Kenya shilling could well fall like a stone.
So as the pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether this government will make it to 2012, it is simply this; how much longer can Mwai Kibaki survive?
Why do I call the readers of a blog suspect? For the simple reason that their behaviour is bizarre to say the least. Their comments clearly suggest that they abhor and strongly disagree with the content in this blog. Ordinarily when you do not like something that you see on the web, you move on. Time is precious. And yet this group of readers have stayed on, saying everything they know how to discredit every story published here. They have refused to leave. Make your own conclusions as to who they really are and what their real objective is.
When I re-introduced comment moderation yesterday, this group was extremely angry. Threats poured in as I moderated and I deleted most of them. It was easy to sense the frustration at the fact that things did not go their way. The carefully and well thought out damage they had planned for the most popular Kenyan blog had been thwarted.
The mood is the same inside Mwai Kibaki’s State house as handlers scramble to find a way to keep the Kibaki administration going for another couple of months. Their plan to enforce the daylight vote theft has met with much stronger resistance than they had imagined. Despite the largest deployment of security forces countrywide in the history of the country, the situation is much worse than it was on 30th December, the ill-fated day when a few individuals inside State House decided to bite the bullet and execute a broad day light robbery of the presidential elections.
Still Kibaki hopes against all hope that the whole crisis will somehow blow over and Kenyans and the international community will come to that place where they accept him as their president for the next 5 years. But the Kibaki think tank is up against enormous odds and it is probably dawning on them just how expensive stealing an election can be.
On the political front there is a problem that scares Mwai Kibaki, the economics professor, more than anything else. In fact much more than Raila Odinga and 6 months of mass action. That thing is members of the Kikuyu tribe driven out of their land. Many of our readers here have no interest of history but the colonial government did many things to Africans which they got away with. Things went badly wrong for them when they drove Kikuyus out of their land. You just don’t do that.
This time around the Kikuyu have been driven from their land by members of the Kalenjin tribe. Information reaching this blogger is to the effect that already the reverberations of this land issue are starting to be felt amongst Members of parliament from Kikuyu areas. Chances are high that they will soon start to break ranks with the rest of the community. Kenyans are about to find out just how close and devoted to the land those from the house of Mumbi are. The minute the Kikuyu unity fails, the Kibaki administration will hardly survive a few weeks.
But even if the Kikuyu unity somehow holds, the entire world community has rejected the presidential results. In other words nobody who matters in the world believes that Mwai Kibaki won the presidential vote. What everybody does not seem to agree on is the way forward from this truth. Some say the country is not ready for a re-run. Others say that nothing else can solve this crisis short of another presidential election. Despite the tensions I tend to believe that only this second alternative will work to get the nation out of its’ current crisis.
Meanwhile Raila Odinga and ODM have announced that they have now halted their mass action protest and will now seek other means. Apparently those other means have been leaked out and now most people know that it is going to be some form of economic boycott where ODM will ask its’ supporters to boycott certain products and companies who support the illegal government of Mwai Kibaki. Will this new strategy work? Actually everything depends on execution, but if this plan is carried out well, then it could end up being much more effective than the street protests.
But even as the government has to deal with all these immediate emergencies there is parliament looming ever closer and there is no guarantee that the huge “cash incentives” currently being thrown around will work as was proved by the election of the speaker which the government side lost narrowly despite heavy investment.
Incidentally parliament requires a simple majority to pass a vote of no confidence against the Kibaki government and send the country back to the polls`. Some analysts think that this is unlikely because the sitting MPs would not like to face another expensive campaign where they are not sure of winning. This time, this is not quite true because every member who votes for such a motion will be a hero of the people and will have no problem retaining their seats in the ODM strongholds in such a snap election.
The truth of the matter is that President Kibaki and PNU have lost quite a bit of support after the events of December 30th and ODM and Raila have just been gaining support by the day.
Now concerning money, what many analysts have failed to realize is the huge expenditure that has been used to retain law and order since December 30th. And yet the traditional cash cow of tourism is no more with tourist hotels in Mombasa virtually empty. Tax collection has been at a very low ebb because there are numerous businesses which have not earned any income since before the ill-fated elections. The expenses related to maintaining the peace remain very high.
Experts believe that the government will soon launch instruments of borrowing from the public to get the cash to keep the country going. But one wonders how investors will view a government T-Bill issue in Kenya shillings when it looks like Kenya may end up being another Zimbabwe with hyper inflation in just a few months.
Don’t even mention the expensive exercise of propping up the Kenya shilling that the Central Bank has been busy with in recent times. Predictably when they run out of their forex reserves, the Kenya shilling could well fall like a stone.
So as the pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether this government will make it to 2012, it is simply this; how much longer can Mwai Kibaki survive?
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Money Tips For Blog Readers
Why would one seek a reliable company where they can purchase silver, gold or other precious metals and coins or bullion? Why would this task be so important?
Firstly there are not many reliable and experienced companies that specialize in investment of precious metals. And yet this is one investment vehicle that is critical for anybody who wants to ensure that the vale of their assets are maintained and not eroded.
This is precisely why knowing a company like Monex Deposit Company (MDC) is so useful. For those who are not aware, Monex has been America’s gold silver and precious metals investments leader for over 30 years now.
Firstly there are not many reliable and experienced companies that specialize in investment of precious metals. And yet this is one investment vehicle that is critical for anybody who wants to ensure that the vale of their assets are maintained and not eroded.
This is precisely why knowing a company like Monex Deposit Company (MDC) is so useful. For those who are not aware, Monex has been America’s gold silver and precious metals investments leader for over 30 years now.
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