On the surface of things it appears that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua had a tiff with fellow leaders from the Mount Kenya region and is looking to mend fences as he solidifies his position as the regions kingpin being the most senior in government from the house of Mumbi. But actually it is much deeper than that.
Gachagua and Uhuru: The inside story is much deeper
Twists and turns in Kenyan politics are very normal and are to be expected. However there is this recent one that is off the charts and suggests looming major political realignments in the country that could be a serious threat to the Ruto presidency.
On the surface of things it appears that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua had a tiff with fellow leaders from the Mount Kenya region and is looking to mend fences as he solidifies his position as the regions kingpin being the most senior in government from the house of Mumbi. But actually it is much deeper than that.
And let us start this story with what Gachagua himself is saying.
On Friday, October 6, whilst discussing the rift with Uhuru Kenyatta on Inooro TV, Gachagua made it known that he was looking to have a conversation with Uhuru in an effort to bring Mount Kenya together as the 2027 General Election draws near.
Now that sounds like some neat narrative that is easy to see through because 2027 is not exactly around the corner. And in politics even one week can be eternity.
Actually Gachagua's most serious political problems stem from deep inside the UDA high command. And these problems were brought to the fore rather dramatically by the recent cabinet reshuffle that saw more power being handed over to the very man Gachagua has been very wary of in recent months. And that is Chief cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi.
In the world of politics, power struggles and betrayals are not uncommon occurrences. It now seems that history is repeating itself as President William Ruto finds himself in a situation similar to what he experienced in the past albeit as a victim with Uhuru as President. Ruto is finding it necessary to sideline his second in command and dilute his powers by making somebody else more powerful by the day. Precisely what Uhuru did with Cabinet secretary Fred Matiangi.
The Genesis of the Rift
Ruto insiders have been heard to complain right from the beginning that the problem with Gachagua is that he over-rates the role his Mt Kenya region played in making Ruto President. And that sounds like something Azimio supporters would quickly jump on as yet more evidence that the 2022 presidential elections were stolen from Raila and there were no real votes from Central Kenya.
The troubles that Gachagua has suffered with the pecking order in government and where he is supposed to fit in, stems from Ruto insiders' retaliation to emphasize to him and others that Ruto does not really need the Mt Kenya region. The stern message is simple; shape up or leave.
Admittedly this warning is being implied with the belief amongst Ruto aides that Gachagua has nowhere to go, more so because he lacks any real political clout inside and outside the Mount Kenya region. What makes Ruto insiders even more confident is the fact that Gachagua's Kikuyu community has no political party to fall back to in the event that Gachagua would think of leading a mass walk out of UDA for the community. Thanks to the clinical way in which Ruto dismantled the Jubilee party.
And that is why Gachagua now seems to have pulled out all stops to prove them wrong.
Gachagua's Retaliation
Whispers in political circles claim that Gachagua's plan is deep and is anchored in uniting the Kikuyu community from both sides of the political divide. The idea is to prop up such an outfit as a powerful entity that will negotiate with the UDA party from a position of strength on behalf of the most populous community in the country.
It is expected that those within Azimio will not have to leave the coalition to join the new Mt Kenya grouping and neither will Gachagua have to leave the Deputy Presidency. Meaning that Gachagua can deal with his enemies while still in UDA and in office.
Now isn't that exactly what Ruto did to Uhuru, albeit with the Kalenjin and Kikuyu communities, in 2008 after the handshake between Uhuru and Raila?
It is not lost on keen political observers that such a move would greatly weaken UDA and even possibly bring it down, leaving it as a mere shell with remnants of Ruto's own Kalenjin community.
Consequences of Gachagua's Move
The UDA party, under Ruto's leadership, has been gaining traction as a formidable political force. However, Gachagua's retaliation poses a significant challenge. If the party fails to address the internal divisions and regain unity, it may struggle to maintain its upward trajectory. The reputation of the UDA party could be tarnished, ultimately affecting its chances in any upcoming political contest, electoral or otherwise.
Ruto's Response
While Gachagua's actions may cause temporary setbacks for Ruto, it is important to remember his resilience and ability to navigate through political storms. Ruto has faced political betrayals before and emerged stronger. He will likely employ the crafty strategic measures he is known for to regain control and ensure the UDA party remains on track towards its goals and his big personal ambitions.
However this time round Ruto has many other urgent problems placing considerable pressure on him just now. Making the current looming crisis very untimely.
Ruto's Mounting Political Problems Threaten His Presidency
President Ruto's presidency has been marred by a series of mounting political problems, including serious legitimacy issues. As he navigates through these challenges, the question arises: can Ruto weather the storm and protect his position of power?
President Ruto's path to the presidency has been contentious, with allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities. This has led to serious questions about the legitimacy of his presidency. Critics argue that these issues undermine his authority and the trust that the public places in him as the leader of the nation.
Weathering the Storm of Corruption Allegations
One of the main challenges facing President Ruto is the widespread perception of corruption within his administration. A number of high-profile corruption scandals have already plagued his infant presidency, leading to a further loss of public trust and a tarnished reputation.
Balancing Coalition Politics and Personal Ambitions
President Ruto's political future is closely intertwined with his role within the ruling coalition. However, his own personal ambitions and aspirations make it challenging to strike a balance between maintaining the support of his coalition partners and pursuing his own political agenda. Can President Ruto successfully navigate these very perilous shark-infested political waters?
Public Dissatisfaction over Economic Challenges And Rising Cost of Living
Economic challenges, including high cost of living, sky-rocketing unemployment rates and a struggling economy, have further eroded public confidence in President Ruto's ability to govern effectively. As a result, there is growing dissatisfaction among the general population, which poses a significant threat to his presidency.
Tribal and Ethnic Divisions
Kenya is a country with deep-rooted tribal and ethnic divisions. President Ruto's presidency has further exacerbated these divisions, with some accusing him of favoring his own Kalenjin ethnic group. Such perceptions weaken his position and create discord within the nation. Can President Ruto bridge these divides and foster national unity?
The Influence of Political Rivals
President Ruto faces formidable opposition most notably from Raila Odinga and Azimio, political rivals who are eager to undermine his presidency. These rivals actively seek to exploit his weaknesses to gain political advantage and remove him from power. Can President Ruto effectively counter these attacks and maintain his grasp on power more so now when he faces the Gachagua threat?
