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Monday, August 27, 2007

The Untold Story Of Mrs Weru And The Karatina Tourist Lodge

What was Mumbi Ngaru, a well-known ODM activist really up to at the now famous Karatina Tourist Lodge when she led the Raila Odinga entourage there? What was she seeking to achieve. Should presidential hopeful Raila Odinga trust people like her in future?

Those are the questions that analysts who know the facts behind the ugly incident are asking.

Investigations by Kumekucha have unearthed a set-up that was engineered by Mumbi Ngaru at the now famous hotel. Or was it just political naivety at work?




The now famous hotel

The whole idea was to get a newspaper headline reading; "Kibaki In-Law Welcomes Raila And ODM To Nyeri." Instead Mrs Lucy Weru, who was alerted of what was going on by somebody in the ODM party (no doubt a traitor or mole) decided that she much preferred the headline; "Raila And ODM Evicted From Nyeri Hotel." Wouldn't you?

Imagine the damage that would have been done to Mrs Weru and her relationship to her powerful in-laws if it had come out that she had welcomed Raila and ODM to Nyeri? The president's own in-law supporting his main rival?

Kenyans have conveniently short memories because it was in Nyeri that Raila was welcomed as Njamba, not too long ago, shorty after the 2002 elections where he had been instrumental in defeating Moi's Kanu after almost 40 years in power. But alas, times change.




The table from whence Raila was given his matching orders

Behind this much-talked about incident is the bigger issue of Luo/Kikuyu relations and what brought them to the level of mistrust where they are today. Incidentally it will be interesting to see what kind of welcome will be accorded to Narc Kenya activists and what sort of heavy security detail they will have with them this week when they are expected in Kisumu over the weekend.

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Where Do Musalia Mudavadi's Loyalties Lie?

In 2002, Musalia Mudavadi made a very painful decision which he knew would lose him the elections. He decided to stick with Moi during an hour of need for Kanu and the old man. For that decision he was hurriedly appointed Vice President and went into the record books as the shortest-serving VP in the history of Kenya.

Now Mr Mudavadi is very upset at the rumours doing the rounds that as soon as he loses his bid to be the presidential candidate in ODM, he will head straight back to mama na baba Moi. A visibly angry Mudavadi told the Mombasa people that those rumours were nothing short of ridiculous. But are they?

Would Mudavadi really refuse to give Baba Gidi a helping hand? He did as he was told 5 short years ago, what should stop him doing the same this time round? You see the Mudavadis and the Mois go a long way back. Musalia's dad, Moses Sabstone Mudamba Mudavadi once promoted Daniel Moi to a P3 teacher and Moi never forgot. In fact Misalia and former president Moi are related through marriage.

It is very possible that the so called "leaked story" of Moi's strategy for Rift Valley involving the Luhya community could be pressure on Raila Odinga to say Musalia Tosha. I say this because Moi's strategy has never "leaked" before. Why now? Folks, chances are quite high that the leak was deliberate. Moi knows that Raila is a strategist who hates to lose and the idea was to pressurize him to give up the presidential nomination to Musalia by making that now famous "Tosha" declaration which the son of Kalonzo called Musyoka had waited for and dreamed about for so long.

The truth is that neither of the ODM parties are popular in Western province and if Musalia does not get the ODM nomination, even the parliamentary seat he seeks will be in doubt. More so if Cyrus Jirongo's Kaddu fields a candidate, which they must.

We already know that Kaddu is a sister party to Moi's Kanu, so chances are still pretty high that Musalia will end up on the Kanu side. I am told that Cyrus Jirongo and Mr Mudavadi do not like each other.

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Can The Kenyan With An American Mother End Up In The White House?

Other African countries really envy Kenyans. You see in African customs the father determines the nationality of a person and many Africans see Democratic American presidential hopeful Barrack Obama as a Kenyan.

Ironical really when most blacks in American see him as more of a white candidate than one who can address the issues of the African Americans.

Anyhow I was a little sick of reading so many self-righteous uninformed opinions of Obama's chances in Kenyan blogs declaring early that he stands absolutely no chance,
that I decided to ask a native American friend who has been following elections in
America for close to a half a century now. Her reply astounded me and gave me a rare
glimpse into the political situation in the United States in relation to the next president.

I asked a straight question; does Obama have a fighting chance to win the democratic nomination and the election after that?


Her answer;

Unfortunately, I can't call this one. I personally don't like Hillary, and hope that Obama has a chance. And I'm not the only one who sees Hillary as being an
ambitious opportunist in search of power, rather than someone with deeply-held
ideals of her own.

But she is a real pro and works hard at her job even if she's oddly unlikable, while Obama is still new enough so he sometimes puts his foot in his mouth. (Which I
personally find oddly refreshing, particularly when contrasted to Hillary's skill at emphasizing what's going to sell her to a particular audience).

I fear that in the end Obama's lack of experience in international arenas may make
his candidacy judged to be premature by many, no matter how exciting his positive qualities. (Although I'd be happy to vote for him myself just as he is today, and
would HATE supporting Hillary. I bet he'd be a fast learner.)

Meanwhile, there are no obviously satisfactory candidates on the Republican side at the moment, and I think if Obama does manage to get the nomination he might win. I can actually see more chance of an unexpected post-primary groundswell of support for a young and interesting candidate with vision than for a pro who knows how to play her cards.

Those of us who dislike Hillary are most unlikely to be swept up in any wave of enthusiasm for her.

But actually, it's a horse race. Anything could happen between now and the primaries to tip the balance one way or the other. If the Republicans miraculously find a candidate that appeals to enough people, such a candidate might prevail against EITHER Hillary or Obama.

All that is truly clear is that most Americans are by this time quite glad Bush can't run again!


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Sunday, August 26, 2007

The Site Respectable Kenyans Don’t Want To Be Associated With, But My Oh My, Do They Read it!

Regular readers of this blog must have found today’s Sunday Nation rather interesting and one would be excused for thinking that we are working together.

Nothing of the sort is happening. In fact many respectable Kenyans including those in the media don’t think much of this popular blog and yet stealing an idea or two is no big deal (Tom Alwaka of Citizen, at least you make an attempt to recycle the headlines although the recent one on Raila was a wee-bit too close to the info we produced here).

Kumekucha is a team effort and our commentators here supply a lot of information and plenty of ideas too. Newcomers should ignore the jeers which I’ve learnt to ignore. For instance as recently as a few months ago when I insisted that retired President Moi was going to be a major factor in the upcoming elections, many of the comments were abusive jeers. Now the mainstream press do not want to discuss anything else, because it is true that you cannot be a dictatorial president for 24 years and have no influence.

Over a year ago I carried this post that I have re-pasted below. I re-read it today and enjoyed it immensely and I trust that you will feel the same as you as you read through it.

I have a hot exclusive I am working on for tomorrow, so kindly bear with me, will you?

THURSDAY, JUNE 29, 2006

Why The Next President Of Kenya Needs To Be A Young Person

Management style of Two Most Recent Presidents Of Kenya And Why The Next President Must Be Young, Healthy And An Early Riser

Attention Managers; There's Plenty To Be Learnt From Comparing Moi And Kibaki Management Styles

The management styles of former President Moi and that of President Kibaki as analyzed here are as different as night and day. But what is more important are the lessons they teach which clearly points us to the kind of CEO we need to take over the reins of running Kenya Inc. after the next general elections.

Former President Moi
Former President Moi must thank the Almighty for blessing him with such good health, which allowed him to keep a very punishing schedule, considering his age (84).

The former president would usually be up by 4 am every morning and would start the day just the way he often ended it, with a glass of milk (Moi has always been a teetotaler who doesn't touch alcohol). He would usually start the day by carefully going through the newspapers. The former president is reputed to have been a ferocious and avid reader of newspapers.

Depending on his program for the day, he would usually then start seeing people as early as 6 am. During Moi's administration two sets of diaries were kept. One was with the comptroller and he personally kept the other that was often packed with the many appointments that he gave to many, including ordinary Kenyans as he criss-crossed the country during his long days.

As the city started to wake up he would usually get a security briefing from the intelligence service which allowed him to face the day with the confidence that privileged information always gives to any person. This blogger knows a person that was very close to the former president and it is believed that Moi used the early hours of the day to reflect and make or postpone important decisions. This is usually the best time to make decisions, free of fatigue or the influences or hassles of the day.

By the time early office workers were arriving in their offices AT 8 am, the former president had already been at his workstation for four hours (about a half of a working day for most people).

What would usually follow was a long day of meetings, meeting people, roadside chats and so on. Mercifully the former President would tend to go to bed early. His night cap more often than not would be the legendary glass of warm milk.




The reason as to why such a brilliant man and the most successful finance minister Kenya ever had, has made such a blundering, shaky President, despite under-studying leaders like Jomo Kenyatta is really not a mystery. It rests with the decision making process. This is a very critical aspect of successful management anywhere.


President Kibaki
Due to recent health problems that have dogged the President, many of them triggered by a near fatal road accident in the run up to the last general elections in 2002, The President usually starts his day late morning, sometimes as late as 11 am. Another reason for the late start is that unlike his predecessor, the current president does not go to bed early. He tends to enjoy his night cap, which for him, like for most of his age mates is a nice beer at the right temperature. He usually continues working even as he prepares to end his day. There are unconfirmed reports that sometimes the President's working day ends late into the night.

Early in the Kibaki administration The Economist did a story that claimed that there was often heavy alcohol drinking going on at State House around the President in the evenings. The Narc government was at the time still very popular and the story died as quickly and quietly as it had emerged and is now long forgotten.

One of the advantages the current president has is that unlike Moi, he lives in State House. President Moi would usually retire to his Kabarnet Gardens home, off Ngong Road and just adjacent to the sprawling Kibera suburb, mostly in the evenings between 6 pm and 7pm.

President Kibaki's work day is very different because he does not shuttle all over the country meeting and addressing the people like Moi did. Neither does he spend several days every month receiving delegations from different parts of the country coming in to pledge their loyalty like Moi did. He is mainly an office person apart from the few public functions he attends from time to time. This caused a former Sunday Nation columnist Mutahi Ngunyi (now a close political advisor to the president) to pose an interesting question. What does the president spend most of his day doing considering his preferred laid back administrative approach that relies heavily on delegating a lot of power to his cabinet, he asked? Ngunyi even insinuated in his then well read column that the President actually sits around relaxing most of the time, literally doing nothing more than enjoying his trappings of power.

Even if this were true, recent political developments and the rapidly approaching general elections would not allow for such a lifestyle. In fact the first lady herself, Lucy Kibaki has said in public more than once that there are some politicians who have literally been causing the President sleepless nights. Meaning that the poor man does not get much sleep any more. This rings very true to anybody who has been closely following recent political developments in the country.

It would seem that many of the President's now painful decisions (that is another management truism, the more you delay decisions the more painful they become when you finally have to make them) are made during the agonizing of the night. Or maybe in the middle of the day, in the heat of things. My Dad whose thinking is very similar to that of the President (and he's also from the same generation) makes most of his decisions over his evening Tusker as he reminisces, sometimes with his close buddies. Whatever the case, we can be sure that crucial presidential decisions these days are hardly made at 4 am in the morning.

A Fascinating Comparison
Comparing the two most recent Kenyan presidents is a fascinating study in management styles and techniques and how they are influenced by personalities and character traits rather than educational backgrounds.

Former President Moi never saw the inside of a high school. This is in sharp contrast to Kibaki who was the first African to score a maximum six points (six top distinctions in six subjects) in his O-levels as a student at Mangu High School. He was also one of the first Africans to attend the London School of Economics where he excelled. By the time Kanu was getting him into politics, Tom Mboya had to personally fetch him all the way from the world famous Makerere University in Uganda where he was a lecturer in Economics.

Yet most people grudgingly agree that Moi was clearly the better manager. Moi's street-smart instincts seem to have given him an uncanny ability to make the right decisions at the exact right moment. One example stands out. After fighting multi-partyism vigorously for years, Moi sensed danger and suddenly changed tact announcing his decision in a memorable Kanu meeting in 1991. Hilariously, party pointman Shariff Nassir, stood up twice in the space of a few minutes to strongly support two very divergent views. First he stood up to suggest that multi-partyism would be implemented over his dead body. Then when Moi announced that he had changed his mind, Nassir was the first on his feet again to say that he too had changed his mind and that multipartyism must be re-introduced at all costs. Kanu delegates rubber stamped Moi's decision to scrap the notorious section 2 (a) of the constitution and bring back multi-partyism to Kenya.

Other one-party despots of the time who did not read the winds of change to make the right decision quickly found themselves out of power and dead shortly after. President Mobutu Sese Seko of Congo is one such example. As is Kamuzu Banda, the former strongman of Malawi.

President Kibaki on the other hand unlike Moi, hates to make decisions and more so, the direct confrontation it brings about. So quite often he waits until it is too late to make any decision. By keeping the LDP rebels in government for too long, he created a serious crisis for himself when he finally sacked the entire cabinet (another move that avoided direct confrontation. It would have been more prudent to sack only the culprits). Keeping them gave them time to gain more public sympathy and support for their cause, which in my opinion was simply not practical. The simple question here is, can a memorandum of understanding over-rule a constitution, which the president has taken an oath to protect? In the end because a decision was delayed and no action was taken in good time, it didn't matter who was right and who was wrong and the president emerged as the culprit in the eyes of the people. He has the results of the referendum on the new constitution as proof of this fact.

Ages before President Kibaki ascended to power, political columnist Kwendo Opanga described him as the politician who "never saw any fence he did not want to sit on". Former DP deputy leader Agnes Ndetei said on her return to the country this year, that the main reason she fell out with her then party boss, Mwai Kibaki was because the man would not make decisions ven when they urgently needed to be made. Incidentally it was this very trait that landed Kibaki the presidency because when you avoid confrontation and making decisions, you end up making less enemies. Out of all the front runners for the presidency in 2002, Kibaki is the man who had made the least enemies despite his long political career and was therefore the most acceptable candidate amongst his peers, long before Raila uttered the now famous words, "Kibaki tosha."

The Next President
There are many reasons why it is important that a younger person of the so-called dot com generation should now rule Kenya. To start with none of the immediate former presidents have strong IT or Internet skills. Which puts them and the country at great disadvantage in our very wired world.

One of the reasons behind Bill Clinton's successful presidency was the efficient use of information technology, email in particular was very heavily relied on. There is little doubt that despite the Monica Lewisky sex-scandal, no other president in American history has gotten so much done in such a short space of time.

The time has come in Kenya where we need to move away from that situation where every communication requires a secretary to sit down and type out a letter or even email. We need to graduate to quick emails personally from the head of state and even his key people, which will suffice and get things done a lot quicker. It is a sad fact that there are too many old people in the current administration whose generation are the sort that get intimidated at the mere site of a computer. This is one of the reasons why this administration has been far from efficient and have often been very sloppy and slow in getting anything done.

Kenya has been put many years behind by recent decisions and policies of the previous president and the current one as well. What this means is that the new president will hardly have the time to sleep. He will need to be both an early riser Like Moi and he will also need to work late into the night like President Kibaki, for him to have a fighting chance of making a reasonable impact.

He will also need to find a middle ground of sorts between shuttling around to every corner of the republic like Moi and efficient management both in the office and on the move with the use of laptops and mobile Internet connectivity.

Just another very good reason to prove that it is time the generation of our fathers and grandfathers, now still clinging to power, packed their bags and went home to rest. It is time to pass on the baton of leadership to a new generation whose age is closer to that of the nation.


See Other Features:

* You Too Can Launch A Part Time Business. But Here Is The Big Problem You Need To Overcome

* Kumekucha declares his interest in the Presidency

* Surgeon Catches Limuru Chief In Bed With His Wife

Will This Young Grassroots Campaigner Prove A Giant Killer?

Focus On Cherangany Constituency Parliamentary Seat 2007 General Elections




Interview with young aspirant Jesse Masai

In keeping with the vision and mission statement of the Kumekucha blogs, I continue to profile some of the younger aspirants in the forthcoming mother of all general elections in Kenya. If you're running and are interested in being featured please get in touch using the email address above. Be warned I'll have to check you out first.

Kumekucha: You are facing a political giant in Cherangany, what's your strategy?

Jesse Masai: My way has been to talk to the people on a one-on-one basis and through targeted communication with segmented focus groups. However, I'm yet to hold a single public rally, for tactical reasons. There's much else I'm doing in terms of approach to the campaigns, but obviously won't go into that here.

Kumekucha: Kenyan voters prefer to elect somebody with "a big car and big pot belly who dishes out cash and sugar" which disqualifies many younger candidates. Please comment.


Jesse Masai: Campaigns for this seat were devoid of money issues for well close to a year (I began working on it early last year). Towards the end of last year, however, some politicians in the area monetarized it. Where previously one would address audiences without them asking to be paid, grave issues were now overlooked and comparisons made over who had what. We had a sad situation developing in the process, where discussions on the issues that mattered were becoming rather muted. In the main, however, my campaign has been encouraged by the increasingly informed and decisive Cherangany voter who comes up to me to say kula ni kwa nani, lakini kura ni kwako. In a sense, therefore, we are glad others are burning their cash on our behalf - one of them is spending an estimated Kshs. 200,000 on hand-outs and fund-raisers on a rather regular basis. We want to hope the voters will have it in their heart to keep their heads at the end of the day.

Kumekucha: Is election violence an issue in your constituency and if so, how do you propose to deal with it?


Jesse Masai: There has been nothing serious thus far to write home about in that respect, though my sense of things is that some aspirants have that as a possible tool for political mobilization and demobilization. My approach has been to be mindful about my own security (a serious concern by the day), be informed on the security situation in the constituency and the country as well and preach peace in my public and private communications. I am a warrior for non-violence. I will not kill to ascend to power. And I will not kill to maintain power. Deep within me is the belief that we are all made in the image of God - the Imago Dei - and that nothing, not even politics, should motivate me to acquiesce to violence as a tool for political mobilization. If that happens, our road to Rwanda will be very short indeed. I have lived in several conflict areas in this nation to have had a very intimate knowledge of the ramifications of violence on a people. I won't allow it in Cherangany.

Kumekucha: Give us a brief summary of your background including professional qualifications.

Jesse Masai: I was born on February 27th, 1980 to a clergyman and a housewife. I attended Sinyereri Primary School, Cherangany High School, Messiah College (USA) and Daystar University (Kenya). My first degree had me studying public relations, media culture, print and electronic journalism. I'm currently pursuing an MA in Media and Development at Daystar University. I have had stints as a journalist in the mainstream media as well as in the NGO world. I have also, as a volunteer, taught languages, history and government in some parts of this country. I should also mention that my background is peasant and was rather difficult much of the time, - I have come this far purely by God's grace and mercies each bit of the way. I have God to thank for what I am today.

Kumekucha: Which presidential candidate do you support currently and why?

Ha! Ha! Ha! Why not wait for polling day?


What do you plan to do if you lose the elections?

I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. You can be sure, though, that I have some things in the oven.

What in your view is the single biggest problem facing your constituents?

It's tempting to list the usual suspects, but my sense of things - and indeed the inspiration for my candidacy - is that there exists a need for leadership on issues that matter in Cherangany. Leadership with a vision, a vision to lead people with passion, creativity and imagination.


How do you plan to deal with this problem?

I am seeking the people's mandate to serve them in the next life of our country's Parliament. I desire to exert a redeeming influence on people, ideas and structures in Cherangany and our country.

What are the land issues that have caused so many problems in the neighboring Mount Elgon area and who is funding the violence?

I suspect those who wield power, authority and influence in today's Kenya (both in government and the opposition) could give you a better answer to that.

What do you think of the possible candidature for the presidency of John Githongo, former ethics PS?

Interesting.


Any other comments.

I invite us all to take courage as a nation to make the necessary, right decisions come polling day. Our best days are ahead of us. I also invite us all to seek to make our lives a daily, responsible answer to the question of God's call on our lives in our generation. This will mean seeking God, finding of whom will be finding ourselves. Our souls will remain restless till we find our rest in Him. Finally, at a personal level, I covet your prayers and material support for the task I have applied myself to, - I still need cars and finances for that final push. If you are a voter in Cherangany, I need your vote, - as indeed those of your friends and relatives. More information about me and how you may be involved in the campaign can be found at my official campaign website.


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Saturday, August 25, 2007

Most Complex Presidential Elections Ever, Coming Up

I have learnt in life that the best policy is to keep things as simple. This is true in everything you handle in this life.

The way things stand, this year's presidential election is going to be the most complex ever.

For instance the current MP for Marakwet East, Mrs Linah Chebii Kilimo in her defection announcement this week only announced a defection in the presidential candidate she is going to support. She did not indicate which party she would use to seek re-election. However she ruled out Narc Kenya.

There is a very high possibility that Narc Kenya will probably not even bother to market itself in most of the Rift Valley and will instead leave its' allies like Kanu to sort out things in the expansive province.

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But my main point is that the old semi illiterate voter stuck in that booth in Marakwey East on that late December day will have to vote for instance the councilor from a party like ODM using one ballot paper, then of he wishes to re-elect Mrs Kilimo will have to find her and the party she will be running under possibly Kaddu or Kanu in yet another very crowded piece of paper. And then for president, they will have to find Mwai Kibaki and whatever coalition he will be running under. And all this is a maze of at least 50 or so political parties listed in the ballot paper. This is the kind of exercise that would be an intellectual challenge even for some voters in the United States, let alone that semi illiterate farm laborer somewhere Marakwet East.

It is really no accident that since the re-introduction of multiparty democracy in 1992, the vast majority of Kenyans have tended to vote what is wide referred to as the 3-piece-suit. That means the same party for councilor (most voters are hardly interested in that one), MP and president. This is the simplest of things to do quickly.

The electoral commission may just have to explore the possibility of having the local authority and parliamentary elections on one day and then the presidential on the following day or a day or two later. Or alternatively start with the presidential and move on to the lesser ones. And they might just have to liaise with the president on this one because I can see the confusion and long delays that may result at polling stations as voters try and find their preferred candidates in the maze of numerous candidates.

It would have been much easier if we had gone into these elections in the same way we went into the 2002 polls where there were just two major parties, Kanu and the opposition. But alas, it is already clear that this time around, that will never definitely not be the case.

Then there is the question of whether this was the best strategy for President Kibaki's handlers to opt for. That is seeking alliances with parties to support only the president. That is a very complex question and there are some that would just brush it aside pointing to the fact that it is the best way to get the president re-elected. In my book it is a very risky strategy because MPs could easily change their minds on the ground when the wind changes. This is usually much more difficult to do when one is in the same party as the president.

However it is definitely not the best thing for Kenya and this insistence by politicians to deliberately pursue a balkanization policy and approach for Kenya with tribal grouping and tribal chiefs and headmen ruling the day is something that is in fact very harmful to democracy and the future of the country. It may just end up backfiring very badly with a record number of spoilt votes and long delays at the polling stations as voters try and figure out the complex quiz that will be the ballot papers his time.

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Kumekucha's Impossible Job

In the stories I carried yesterday analyzing what motivation Moi may have in fighting tooth and nail to make sure that Raila does not see the inside of State House, I mentioned that the former president's aides believe that they are averting bloodshed because some radical but influential presidential advisors have sworn that they will hand over power to anybody else but Raila.

Many of my dear readers including a very close friend interpreted the story as evidence that I am supporting Raila and the revelation was probably supposed to draw sympathy for the ODM presidential hopeful. It is no secret that members of the house of Mumbi are extremely sensitive to any criticism on one of their own (I have noted the trend since I launched this blog), but what I want us all to investigate is why most of them tend to feel this way.

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Please, I do not want condemnation, which will get us nowhere; instead I want to understand this feeling and exactly where it came from. I am sure many of you would like the same.

By the way that particular fact about what Moi and his aides are saying is accurate because I have two impeccable but different sources confirming it. Of course there is the possibility that Moi and his men are lying to Kenyans or to themselves.

Incidentally the other day I was informed that there are rumours that this blog is financed by President Kibaki. Wow!!

Folks, that is how challenging my job here is.

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Kamukunji Is No Man's land For Norman

Rowdy Kamukunji constituents do not want to hear a single word from their current MP Norman Nyagah. They loudly jeered and shouted him down during the Narc celebration rally at the historic Kamukunji grounds last weekend. Several times, he tried in vain to speak and even bravely attempted to shout above the din, however it proved impossible and he had no alternative but to sit down dejected.

It is now very clear that Kamukunji constituency is no man's land for Norman. One wonders how the poor guy will campaign against a very crowded field of eager candidates that is still growing by the day. One option would be for him to relocate elsewhere in Nairobi (but where?) or alternatively head back to Gacoka (where the situation will be much worse because apart from his big brother seeking re-election, inside information has confirmed to this blogger that long-serving and respected former NCCK chair, Mutava Musyimi is also eyeing that parliamentary seat and what's more, he has the full blessings and backing of State House. That will surely make the little matter of a Narc nomination extremely complex for Norman.

Poor Norman Nyagah, it seems that there is nowhere to hide. But don't worry, mheshimiwa, many of your colleagues will face exactly the same predicament. Your advantage over them is that you have known early and can therefore plan accordingly. Like you can work hard to make sure that the bill through which MPs could endorse their controversial golden handshake has already sailed through the second reading and now goes to committee stage. The necessary amendments are going to be sneaked in, in the committee stage. MPs have sworn tupende, tusipende, they will get the money most of which they have withdrawn already and spent.


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Daily Newspapers In Big Trouble As Circulation Falls Like A Stone

My recent investigations indicate that executives at the leading daily newspapers in the country are extremely worried over the recent behavior of newspaper circulation.

Let me give you a little background. Usually in election years, newspapers tend to report huge windfall profits as election fever grips the country. This has not happened this time round. If anything both the two leading daily newspapers have been struggling to sell a respectable number of newspapers daily.

What is really worrying is that the editorial costs of covering the elections usually run into millions and the newspapers have never had any problems covering it because of the usual windfall circulation profits that start pouring in early in the year.

And falling circulation is not entirely their fault. The dwindling purchasing power of ordinary Kenyans that has now made a newspaper a luxury that most cannot afford, is the main culprit. Then technology has wrecked havoc. Lifestyles have actually been turned upside down by technology. For example in the 80s the first thing I would do when I got up in the morning was to turn on the radio. Why? To make sure that everything was OK and loved ones are OK. If I was not buying a newspaper on my way to work that day, I would at least stop at the vendors and scrutinize the headlines. Now technology has wiped out that need. When most people get up in the morning these days, the first thing they do is pick up their cell phones and switch them on if they were off. Once my dad was sick and I received an SMS within minutes although I was thousands of miles away. Apparently all my brothers switch off their phones at night and I was the only one whose phone was on at 4:30 am.

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So the culture of purchasing newspapers even for election news is rapidly fading.

The newspapers themselves cannot be absolved from blame entirely. The truth is that our Kenyan newspapers have never really adapted to a more analytical role which is necessary with all the TV news from a handful of TV stations available for free the evening before. You do not want to read the same thing you heard in the TV news the next morning, but you surely want your questions answered in some deep analysis explaining the news you saw. Only half-hearted attempts have been made in that direction.

Part of the problem is that the editorial decision makers still polluting our newspapers have been there a long time and naturally making changes is too hard for them.

The falling circulation explains the reason why ODM must feature in the headline daily for newspapers to sell. It also explains the mergence of the design department that now plays a much more prominent role in the design of the front page.


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How The Nairobi Star Lost Its' Soul In A Crisis

So what happens to the smaller newspapers when the big boys are "bleeding?" Answer; things are worse for them.

My informed calculations indicate that the recently launched Nairobi Star is "bleeding" and "bleeding very badly."


It was assumed when this baby was on the drawing boards that the huge popularity of KissFM would lift the newspaper above the horrifying daily expenses of doing a full color newspaper without your own printing press. It is very clear that certain structural mistakes which were made when the paper was launched have come back to haunt them.

For instance full color may be desirable in all the pages, but it does not sell newspapers on its' own. Content does and the Nairobi Star does not have very much of it.

It I also clear that when hit by the angry reaction of its' readers in releasing the first issue, those making key decisions at the newspaper must have panicked and listened too closely t reader comments and suggestions, so much so that the newspaper lost it's very soul. The result is there for all to see. I find it extremely difficult to define the Nairobi Star. It has ended up being a newspaper without character. It is not the sexy tabloid the founders envisaged on the drawing boards and neither is it a better Standard newspaper (don't even mention Nation). It is a poor imitation of the Kenya Times with much less content but aiming to sell at the same price as the Nation. OUCH. Sorry if I sound too harsh, but that is the reality on the ground and the way many readers view it. Had it gone ahead and positioned itself as something different, we would now be talking a different story.

Talking of positioning, the Star was launched as "the daily magazine that looks like a newspaper" and yet has missed the opportunity to be Kenya's first authoritatively analytical newspaper. The truth is that this newspaper is very thin on features but has lots of news told too briefly.

I have worked in a newspaper and can empathize with what must be going on in the bowels of the Nairobi Star.

In trying to desperately stem the bleeding, nobody is pursuing story ideas that would have made this newspaper different. For example a story on why Kamangu so popular with the ladies these days would have worked quite well and raised circulation. Or an investigative piece on big names in big cars caught on Koinange Street after 9 pm.

What has happened instead is that the newspaper has listened to readers who are not newspaper experts and they have cut drastically cut down on sex content without realizing that one of the things about sex is that everybody thinks it is dirty but guess who keeps the huge prostitution industry in Kenya going. Sex sells without fail and so does scandal.

I suspect that the Nairobi Star proprietor, judging by the circles he moves in, has found himself faced with that classic dilemmas many serious publishers have to face. This is whether to publish a newspaper that will not make him feel embarrassed when he is with his friends at the club or whether to publish a newspaper that sells. The most successful newspaper publisher in the world Rupert Murdoch has faced the same dilemma because most of his profits come from newspapers that his friends prefer to call rags and so at great expense he has acquired Newspapers like The Times and created others like The Australian which hardly makes him any money and more often than not lose him a lot of money, just to keep his sanity amongst peers. KissFM may be explicit but radio has a way of neatly segmenting it's audience so that everybody gets to listen to exactly what they want to listen to at a time that is convenient to them. With newspapers everybody sees everything and is and it is all "in writing."

In my view the crux of the problem at the Nairobi Star is the fact that proprietor Patrick Quracoo does not understand newspapers and it is not the same thing as radio, which he understand extremely well. Unless something different and drastic happens soon, I don't envisage the Star celebrating it's first birthday.

Other stories on the Nairobi Star In This blog;

Email analysis of the Nairobi Star

Leaked early info about the Nairobi Star before it was launched

Why married women cheat


What I Would Do If I Was Given The Chance To Turn Around The Nairobi Star

I have devoted most of my adult life to understanding newspapers and why they make or lose money. In that time I have launched no less than seven newspapers either for myself or others. They say the best captain to sail with is the one who has been shipwrecked because he knows where all the rocks are. I am that captain but I have also been involved in the sensational turnaround of a monthly business magazine that was losing a lot of money.

Little wonder that I was able to easily transfer my talents online to run successful moneymaking blogs, such as this one you are reading.

Here's what I would do if I were given a chance to turn around the Nairobi Star. My hope is that those involved with the newspaper will pick up an idea or two that they can use.

I would neatly divide all the content into 2. Firstly long detailed articles, either exclusive features or thoughtful political and news analysis as well as human-interest tales. The second group would consist of numerous very brief stories. I would never attempt to carry a current news story that goes beyond two short paragraphs. This blog can offer numerous ideas for exclusives that would help them sell at least 50,000 copies daily.

I would then change the advertising strategy and target the hundreds of thousands of smaller advertisers whom the bigger newspapers are currently ignoring. Interestingly every publication in Kenya is targeting the same up-market advertisers. As a huge market of untargeted advertisers is completely ignored. There are many ways to do this but one of the easiest is to make it easy to book advertisements in The Nairobi Star. For isntance making it possible to book a classified ad worth Kshs 200 where cash can be sent in either using Safaricom's M-Pesa or airtime (this is easy to cash). I would also run competitions to encourage people to get into the habit of advertising, as well as start a lonely hearts column where people pay for the ads.

In brief I would seek to recover the soul of the Nairobi Star while exploring new revenue generating profit centres while at the same time making it a fun newspaper for the target market. I would endeavor to create a newspaper that looks as different as possible from the other mainstream dailies. I would also run competitions that cross promote KissFM and Nairobi Star in both media outlets.

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Friday, August 24, 2007

Moi's Secret Plan To Demolish Raila's Presidential Ambitions

I am told that today's Nairobi Star has an interesting albeit very brief story about Moi's secret plan to destroy Raila Odinga's chances of ascending to the presidency. I am a little surprised because that was the exact information I was going to share today and I have a little more information than the Nairobi Star, thanks to my faithful team of informants who are the real power of this blog.

The Rift Valley is one place that no presidential contender can afford to take lightly. Not only are there a very high number of votes in the province but the province also boasts of the highest number of parliamentary seats. Moi and his cronies seem to be pretty sure that they hold sway in Rift Valley and both Baba Gidi and Gidi himself (reputed to be the richest Kenyan and the second richest respectively) are hatching a plot to neutralize Raila Odinga's popularity in the province.

The plan is to position Cyrus Jirongo's Kaddu as the party to vote for in the expansive Rift Valley. Already it is very clear that if Musalia Mudavadi does not emerge as the ODM presidential candidate, the Luhya community will make good their earlier threat to rethink their political position and will therefore mostly vote for Cyrus Jirongo and his Kaddu party.

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Actually many analysts are unaware of the aggressive campaign that the former Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo has been carrying out in many parts of Western province since last year. He has been assisted by the Editor of the alternative press newspaper Citizen Weekly (which sells briskly in the province), Tom Alwaka. Alwaka is himself a candidate in the region and has been campaigning aggressively for sometime now. When Cyrus Jirongo declares his candidature for the presidency, which should be fairly soon, then a sizeable number of Luhya votes should go his way. And if Moi delivers the Rift Valley, then it will mean that Jirongo will be a major force to reckon with in the 10th parliament.

The whole objective is to win as many parliamentary seats as possible and then support President Kibaki, which will guarantee them prominence in the next Kibaki government of national unity (assuming that Emilio emerges the winner for a second term).

Naturally all these things go with timing, which is of utmost importance. Jirongo will make his announcement only after the ODM presidential candidate is named and Musalia Mudavadi will have lost his bid to the party's presidential flag bearer.

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What Is Moi's Real Motivation?

There is an emerging debate as to what former President Moi's real motivation in wanting to do everything to deny Raila the presidency is.

Raila supporters say that the day Raila is sworn in at as the fourth president of Kenya at Uhuru Park, the moment he puts the bible down, Baba Gidi and Gidi will be behind bars. Some people believe that this is what drives the aging Moi to spend all his spare time these days plotting for Raila's downfall.

However those close to Moi disagree. They say that the old man has said several times in recent weeks that he is not frightened of a Raila presidency. He points out that if Kibaki was not able to prosecute him, then who is Raila? It is said that he has told close aides that he and Gideon are well able to take care of themselves.

So why is the former president so much against a Raila presidency, if he feels that he can take care f himself. Moi's aides and supporters claim that their man wants to save the country from blood shed.

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It is said that President Kibaki's supporters will gladly hand over power to all other presidential candidates save Raila Odinga. It is whispered in the corridors of power that they would rather go to war than hand over the presidency to Raila Odinga. So to avert this danger, Moi's aides say, he is doing everything to ensure that Raila does not win the presidency.

Indeed noted political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi (before he crossed the floor to be one of the president's Kibaki's advisors) said in one of his columns in the Daily Nation that he doubts if President Kibaki's to advisors would allow him to hand over power in th event that he is defeated.

I have also expressed my doubts over this. You only need to observe carefully what happened immediately after the referendum to realize that this is no idle threat.

However I can still not see Moi being a saver and his motives are mor selfish than selfless and mainly aimed at securing a viable future for his favorite son, Gideon. That future, it seems looks pretty bleak with a Raila presidency.

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The Powerful Forces That DID NOT Want Raila To Be President in 2007

Analysts including this blogger have long pointed to the powerful anti-Raila forces that seem prepared to do anything to ensure that Raila never sees the inside of State House as the main occupant.

Top on that list is Moi, whose tentacles after 24 years as Kenya's presidency spread far and wide, giving him plenty of influence, even when he is no longer president. Then there is the fact that he is rated as the richest Kenyan alive by many people who also place his son Gideon at number two, in terms of wealth. Money usually does miracles in Kenya and magically opens ever doors that have previously been firmly shut for a long time. There is little doubt that a lot of the Moi family fortunes will be put to work against Raila.
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Then there is the Central Kenya billionaires club. This consists mainly of people who made their money during the Kenyatta days. Many of these men are in the twilight years of their life and are extremely anxious that the country avoids a Luo presidency at all costs. These individuals who even Kumekucha is frightened to mention here are prepared to do anything (and I mean anything) to ensure that the son of Jaramogi never carries the title of "your excellency" either in the lifetime or after. The kind of treatement Raila received at the Karatina Tourist Hotel, gives Kenyans just a small glimpse into the thinking of this group. You can be sure if the person involved was either Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi or William Ruto, they WOULD NOT have been ejected out of the hotel like Raila was.

Indeed close Raila supporters acknowledge the fact that their candidate's life has been in a lot of anger for a long time, but they insist that he has some certain "magical powers" he was born with that help him evade danger and see plots against his life even as they are being hatched. Remember what Raila said about the Artur brothers and their real mission to Kenya?

There is yet another more sober group of presidential advisors who are younger and more thoughtful and analytical. This group is also against a Raila presidency because it is deeply worried at what it sees as Raila's vengeful character. They point to several examples to prove their point. The most chilling is the one that involves former Rangwe legislator, Shem Ochudho, who fell out badly with Raila in the run up to the 2002 elections. Reliable sources insist that Mr Odinga went to great lengths to block Ochudho's appointment to the Kenya Pipeline, using his great influence in government at the time, when he was still with President Kibaki. Raila failed but many people carefully and quietly watching were taken aback at how vengefully he had acted against his former ally. This group of advisors mainly from the Mount Kenya region are sure that a Raila presidency at this point in time could spell disaster for Kenya.
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Then there is the group that consists mainly of dark figures who deliberately stay out of public limelight but are very influential. Many of them are involved in corrupt deals with government departments and a few are even in the illegal drug business. This crooks can clearly read the writing on the wall and they do not like it one bit. The direction that the country wuld head under a Raila presidency would be one where the common man would have the sort of say he/she has never had since independence. This would naturally mean an end to their lucrative and mostly illegal business, which they will do anything to protect.

Now the big question is this; Can Raila Odinga defeat all these powerful forces to ascend to the presidency?

My honest, impartial and thoroughly analyzed verdict is; "NO."  Find out Raila's latest obstacles to the presidency in 2023

What scared Ruto and Raila into talks that both sides don't want?
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Raila's deepest campaign secrets

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Raila was the first to call me watermelon, Kalonzo explains

What Uhuru saw in 2018 that Ruto and Kenyans can still not see

Why only the Gikuyu can save Kenya now





Why Are Kenyans Sending Nyama Choma Home From The US?




Do you want to torture some information out of a Kenyan? That's easy, especially if that Kenyan has not had Nyama choma or specifically mbuzi choma for a long time all you need to do is show them photographs of Nyama choma or even better present a few pieces of well roasted nyam choms and then you can start asking all the questions you want.

"What do you know about XYZ? Tell me everything you know and all this nyama choma is yours."

If it is genuine Kenyan you are dealing with, I can assure you that they will start talking.

So it is not really surprising that some of the gifts being send back home from Kenyans in the US includes Nyama choma, even whole mbuzis.

The service being used to accomplish this is Mama Mikes, that Kenyan web site that has been helping thousands of Kenyans in the diasporas send home the sort of gifts that inspires villagers to sing their praises for days on end.



According to Mama Mikes they have recently received a request from a customer to buy a pizza for someone in Kenya and to deliver it. That is an interesting prospect receiveing a pizza for lunch all the way from the United States of A.

Other popular requests include paying school fees and recently cell phone airtime which costs only $2.49 to send online at Mama Mikes.

But Kenyans are getting even more creative in their gift giving. Somebody is planning to buy their grandmother a Friesian dairy cow. That is the sort of gift that the recipient will never forget about in a hurry because it gives them a daily source of income in a country where cash is increasingly scarce.

Re-posted with permission from Kenya Online Directory.

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Kumekucha adds;

What I want to know is where the gift ideas are coming from. Is it from abroad or from Kenya? These are very interesting ideas and I'm delighted to see a truly Kenyan website doing so well while at the same time helping to bring a smile to the face of Kenyans badly hit by Kibakinomics which has made cash a very scarce thing indeed.

The torture idea is really interesting and the many NSIS agents here should quickly take up this tip and start interrogating Kenyans. I can imagine some of the questions;

Do you know Kumekucha's true identity?

What do you know about the political plans of one John Githongo?

Tuambie kila kitu na hii mbuzi choma ni yako.

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Thursday, August 23, 2007

Predictions About Kalonzo Musyoka And Akamba Beliefs

A Kamba man and one of the staunch supporters of Presidential hopeful Kalonzo Musyoka, told this blogger such a bizarre tale about the candidate the other day, that my ears are still ringing from what I heard.

So bizarre is this tale that I have debated long and hard whether or not to include it in this blog. If I had opted not to share it, I would be denying my readers information and yet the reason I set up this blog in the first place was to pass on information that nobody else would dare pass on.

If on the other hand I shared it, it would leave me wide open to be misinterpreted.

Alas, being who I am, I have decided to share it.

A while ago, so Kalonzo supporters are saying, a famous and powerful medicine man or witchdoctor predicted that Kalonzo Musyoka would be Kenya's next president. But, the medicine man said, his mother would not live to see his presidency. Even the witchdoctor himself would only see him being sworn in and would die a short time after that.

My informant tells me that any doubts Kalonzo may have had about the predictions were destroyed when true to the prediction his mother (whom he was very close to) passed on earlier this year.

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Quip of the week;
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I stared at the man, a staunch Kalonzo supporter who belongs to the Akamba tribe, as he delivered this information with a straight face. He was trying to convince me about the identity of the next president of Kenya. I suspect that the reason why he was telling me all this is that he had heard I was a Kamba and knew that I would "understand." Still, I did not want to believe what he had said and yet it explained a lot of things that had been happening on the local political scene and especially with ODM Kenya. It also explained a lot of the false confidence I had so far seen in Kalonzo Musyoka.

Whether it is true or not, members of the Akamba community are well known for their staunch belief in what is usually referred to as remote control or witchcraft. I learnt this the hard way because although my father hails from the community he has always had a great hatred of witchcraft, but no sooner had I started living on my own, did a long lost uncle turn up warning of dire consequences if we did not go out and seek some "protection". He caught me on the wrong footing and besides I was very young in those days and I allowed myself to be convinced. That was before I became a born again Christian and renounced the whole satanic thing.

Later I understood why people say that even when a Mkamba joins the church and is a staunch Christian, many of them will still carry witch craft protection on them "just in case."

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Where Kalonzo Musyoka Is Today

Today ODM-Kenya are on a 2-day retreat at Lukenya, on the outskirts of Nairobi as you travel towards Machakos. The discussions are centered on getting the most appropriate method of nominating their presidential candidate and also on a strategy for the upcoming general elections. In attendance is everybody from the top brass of the party including Kalonzo Musyoka, lawyer Mutula Kilonzo and Labour Party Of Kenya owner Julia Ojiambo.

As things stand, ODM-Kenya is going to be the party ticket to get anywhere in Ukambani for somebody seeking elective office. But then as Taabu said here yesterday the situation now and leading upto the polls is so fluid that you would be a fool to swear on it or anything else.

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Presidential Candidates And Witchdoctors

The truth which will be very strongly denied by all is that no major presidential candidate will dream of standing for the presidency anywhere in Africa without consulting a witch doctor.

Prior to the 1992 initial multi-party elections, some curious visitors of the then president arrived from Mombasa, brought to the city by Shariff Nassir. Their mission was to prepare the presidential candidate that Mr Nassir was supporting for the presidency. The "visitors" stayed at a well-known Nairobi hotel.

Another leading presidential contender challenging President Kibaki is said to often seek witch craft powers from West Africa. Don't even talk about MPs because a vast majority of them seek out witch doctors and this period leading up to the elections is a very busy time for medicine men countrywide who usually make a windfall.

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Quip of the week;
"Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly." -- Robert Francis Kennedy

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Things are not any better in Tanzania where a curious incident happened last year as President Kikwete was campaigning for the presidency. A middle aged man slipped through Kikwete's security detail and grabbed the presidential candidate placing him on his shoulders to lift him, before frantic security men contained him and then gave him the beating of his life. Many Tanzanians believe that he did not survive the beatings and in fact passed away.

Later some Tanzanians explained the curious incident to me. The man had been treated by a witch doctor to be invisible but Kikwete's witchcraft protection was too strong and that is why the man had been visible. The person who told me the story was at pains to convince me that this was a very normal occurrence in politics at that level.

This is just one more reason why we need a new generation of leaders who are free from the shackles of such primitive and backward beliefs that are keeping Africa from progressing.

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Countdown Idea From Luke Was Good

As Paul Melly says; "Equal Acres Of Space Should Be Given To All Political Interests."

The idea from one of regulars here, that we should start a count down to the general elections was excellent. Indeed we are going to start one very soon. Actually I am just putting a few finishing touches in place and we launch. For those interested in knowing the idea was suggested by one Luke alias "Admiring the economic growth".

Talking of preparations, the deputy chairman of the Standard Group Paul Melly had a meeting with senior staff this morning and announced that the editorial policy of the groups' main media outlets going into the general elections, namely The Standard newspaper and KTN was to give "equal acres of space to all political interests."

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Quip of the week;
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=========================================

I stand to be corrected, but firstly this is not humanly possible. It would have to involve editors making measurements of articles carried and time expended on a news item o TV about a certain party and when you consider the fact that we have 250 registered political parties in the country, you will begin to see the nightmare involved.

Then there is the fact that a newspaper is a commercial venture and has to sell and make money to pay staff and bills as well as.

In fact both the Nation and Standard have clearly shown that news items that have anything to do with ODM in the headline seem to outsell every other news item. More killings in Mount Elgon is boring and even a landslide in Kakamega with a high death toll does not interest Kenyans like something… anything about ODM.

These are the brutal facts that have to rule in election coverage by the media.

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Heavy Loss For Government As 2 Media Bills Are Shelved

It was announced late today that President Kibaki has officially declined to sign the media bill and has already written to the speaker of the house giving his reasons for refusing to sign it. He basically repeats what many MPs who voted for the bill already knew and what we have been saying here for weeks—that it contradicts key parts of the constitution.

At the same time Communication Minister Muahi Kagwe told newsmen today that the government has withdrawn the even-more-damaging-to-press-freedom CCK Amendment Act Bill. The minister says that the bill will be re-drafted.

It is unlikely that either bill will make it back to parliament before the elecetions.

That is 3 losses for the government of national unity in a space of about a week. I have included the ill fated bill meant to create new constituencies but sugar-coated with 50 extra seats for women. Going into an election this is very serious. In fact a crisis of sorts.

Just consider the man-hours and resources expended pushing and sponsoring 3 bills that were clearly not a good idea considering the corner the government has worked itself into.

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For those who doubted, this is a clear indicator of just how powerful the media is, and how it is an extremely lousy idea to try and mess up with the fourth estate during an election year. The truth is that the full consequences of this very bad idea are yet to be felt and can only be fully analyzed in January 2008.

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Linah Chebii Kilimo Abandons Kalonzo To Support Kibaki's Re-election Bid

The defection of Marakwet East MP and former Migration cabinet minister Linah Chebii Kilimo from ODM-Kenya to the Mwai Kibaki re-election camp today is significant in that it gives us a peek into the thinking that has been going on in the numerous meetings the Kalenjin community have been having over the last few days.

The meetings are part of the tribal groupings that have been coming together to map out strategy for the forthcoming polls and mainly to position communities to reap maximum. Until now the attractive Mrs Kilimo who "escaped the circumcision knife" by a whisker, has been a staunch supporter of Kalonzo Musyoka's ODM. She was even at the forefront of the demonstration to Sheria House that sent shivers down the spine of government and caused them to release the registration certificate pronto. But alas the sacrifice in the end did not amount to much because that is the registration certificate that Kalonzo Musyoka took off with together with his "Mtu wa mkono" Daniel Maanzo. In fact Mrs Kilimo sacrificed much more than risking police brutality in a demonstration because she sacrificed her plum cabinet post by supporting Raila Odinga and LDP in the bitter struggle over another paper called a memorandum of understanding that President Kibaki is said to have agreed to and signed. So when all the renegade cabinet members were being dismissed, Mrs Kilimo was on the list of those shown the door. But I digress.

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Quip of the day;
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It is now very clear that most of Rift Valley will support President Kibaki's re-election bid. That seems to be their game plan for now. I say for now because experienced analysts will tell you that usually when elections are these close the situation is extremely fluid and can change in a matter of hours. To be honest this Rift Valley proposed move, surprises me a little because the signs were clearly pointing to Kanu (the party that a vast majority of senior Kalenjin politicians belong to) supporting a presidential candidate other than Kibaki. It could suggest that Mrs Kilimo and the Rift Valley politicians have some information that that the rest of us do not have, because the last time I checked, the province was deeply divided between ODM and propping up Kanu to field it's own presidential candidate. The shidt to Kibaki is something very new.

An interesting aside is that Mrs Kilimo does not look too fit for a grueling campaign just now since she seems to have put on a considerable amount of extra weight. She needs to a gym for aerobics sessions pronto.

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Direction Of Luhya Vote Could Decide Elections

The Luhya community have spoken in one voice and have sent a chilling message to Raila Odinga's ODM. Nominate Musalia Mudvadi as the ODM presidential candidate or the community will have to rethink where to pour their support.

Why such cockiness? And why now?

Unknown to most Kenyans, those who do tribal arithmetic regularly are now saying that the current sums minus the Luhya community put president Kibaki and Raila Odinga on a head to head level with no clear winner and it is in fact too close to call.

For all intents and purposes, it seems highly unlikely that ODM-Kenya, Kalonzo Musyoka and his Kamba community (the 5th largest community according to Moi's highly suspect census figures) will team up with the original ODM. In fact Mr Musyoka has really been warming up to Kanu in recent weeks. This is in fact a great loss to ODM, although there are those analysts who insist that it was obvious that Kalonzo was not going to remain in ODM and that it is equally obvious that Raila Odinga will be the ODM candidate for president short of which his own supporters could easily lynch him if he suggests anything less. One can't help wondering what will happen if Raila loses the presidential elections to President Kibaki or another candidate.

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Quip of the day;
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This development has suddenly made it crucial for both leading candidates to ensure that they get the Luhya vote. It is no accident that President Kibaki recently toured Western Kenya—the geographical habitation of the Luhya. Raila's strategists are also said to be burning the midnight oil looking for ways and means to clinch the Luhya vote.

Actually I is also important to note that getting the entire Luhya vote as a block is impossible because even if Musalia were to be declared the presidential candidate today, it is highly unlikely that Musikari Kombo's Bukusu will vote for him. That is how explosive Luhya politics is. And that is why it is easier to understand it all when you realize that there is no such tribe as the Luhya tribe. This was simply the administrative name coined by the colonialists to describe the numerous different tribes that they had grouped together for administrative purposes. True there are many similarities between the tribes, but there are also many irreconcilable differences.

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