Is ODM Secretly Preparing For Fresh General Elections?

As the comedy of errors over naming a simple cabinet, being played out at Harambee house in Nairobi drags on, seemingly endlessly, one thing is becoming increasingly clear by the day. And that is the fact that the sooner the country can go back to the polls the better.

In fact there are those who believe (including this writer) that only free and fair polls as soon as is practicable can save our beloved motherland from more blood letting. As usual the political class has completely failed to see the increasing clamor by ordinary Kenyans for fresh new leadership under a new constitution. Needless to say, it is abundantly clear that if the will of the people is continuously ignored and frustrated, we are headed for an ugly class war in Kenya.

But it appears that not everybody is oblivious of the inevitable. Recent actions by ODM leader Raila Odinga and indeed the unfolding of events behind the scenes at the party seem to suggest that ODM could already be preparing for fresh general elections. Probably the most significant change around Raila Odinga that seems to suggest this is the rise and rise of one Dalmas Otieno. It is instructive that in the names handed over to the President by ODM Dalmas Otieno has been earmarked for one of the most significant portfolios on the ODM side, namely the Ministry of Roads.

More telling is the insistence of analysts that the sudden sharp rise of Asian businessmen lining up to see the Prime Minister designate can directly be traced back to this Dalmas Otieno character. This writer is currently preparing a detailed dossier on the man that Kenyans need to know a little better. My report will appear here soon.

Incidentally the rise of Hon Mr Otieno has coincided with the rapid decline of Prof Anyang Nyong’o as a major force and figure on Raila’s side in ODM.

Clearly all signs point to ODM being keen on cutting the kind of deals that raise money for a political campaign, more specifically a general election and a presidential campaign.

But is Kenya really headed to another general election?

The answer to that question should be pretty obvious by now and I reckon that Kenya could well be back at the polls within a year at the most.

To start with the circus that has been played over the cabinet appointments makes it quite clear that there is no way that the two sides can work together. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that what will follow soon, even after the naming of the grand coalition cabinet will be endless squabbles within the crowded cabinet room. In fact it has become abundantly clear that even the reform agenda being touted may just end up still-born. Instead we will be treated to eternal drama as Kenyans continue to suffer in unprecedented levels. Interestingly President Kibaki honest view is that reforms are Upumbavu. Raila on the other hand will be hard pressed to push through any reforms when he will be so busy trying to contain the PNU onslaught and put out the constant fires they will surely light all over the place. In any case the ODM leader does not even bother to pretend to be a reformer any more.

Then there is nobody talking about accountability any more. What has actually happened is that we have opened the doors of the “jewelry shop” that is Kenya, wide open to mostly known jewelry thieves. The consequences of this are not too difficult to predict.

Of course President Kibaki and PNU will do everything in their power to resist a general election which would obviously put them at great disadvantage. However going by the mood in the country at the moment, they will soon find that they cannot stop the tide which will be powered by the masses of Kenya. In other words Kibaki and his cronies who are now confidently at the helm believing that controlling the military and security forces is enough will be hit by something they will not see until it is too late.

In fact the biggest threat to PNU and its’ affiliate parties which they are yet to see is in the numerous IDP camps in Rift Valley where people who mostly voted Kibaki are living in deplorable and inhuman conditions. These persons are extremely upset and will soon act in a way that will surprise the political class who are all busy sharing out the national cake without giving more than lip service to the plight of the displaced.

Actually on a positive note that anger is about to turn the Kenyans in those IDP camps from people who mostly voted along tribal lines into people keenly aware of the fact that there are only two genuine tribes that matter in the country. Namely the haves and the have nots.

It really is sad that this coalition government was a foreign idea imposed on Kenyans that will end up NOT working. Former UN general secretary Kofi Annan who fled soon after the deal was signed knows it and will not return for anything, which in itself is very telling.

P.S. President Kibaki was due to leave the country tomorrow for a State trip to India. It has now emerged that the president has cancelled the trip due to the ongoing keen negotiations with ODM over the cabinet crisis. Foreign affairs cabinet Minister, Moses Wetangula will represent him as head of the Kenyan delegation.