The “Sina Makosa” Grand Coalition And The Mouth-Watering Safaricom IPO

We are going to discuss some very serious business in this post. The problem is that it is bound to upset many of you see-no-evil-hear-no-evil-on-the-coalition faithful dear readers of Kumekucha. Kindly bear with me, my brothers and sisters. It is all nothing but the truth. I have checked and cross-checked my facts and I have confirmed all the sensitive information.

But fortunately, I am not some heartless brute, so to make “the medicine” a little less bitter and unpleasant to take, I have tied this article to African music. I am sure most of you folks out there in the Diaspora love African/Kenyan music and many folks back home too. So do I. My all-time favourite is a Les Wanyika song called Nimaru.

I have a fascinating tale to tell you today about how a hit song destroyed a soul and I was there to witness some of the destruction as it was happening, so I can tell this story first hand.

In my view the late Omar Shaban, of Les Wanyika better known as Prof Omari is the best rhythm guitarist to have ever walked the shores of Eastern Africa and beyond. But many people do not know the story behind the smash hit Les Wanyika song, Sina Makosa.

Actually Prof Omari and bassist Tom Malanga (both Tanzanians playing their music in Kenya then) left Simba Wanyika to form the legendary Les Wanyika together. They were joined by two other fellow Tanzanians namely, John Ngereza and Issa Juma.

To launch the group, they needed to head straight to the recording studios and release a hit. And the song had to be a hit if the new group was to survive. There was hardly time to come up with something new, so Prof Omari dug out an old song that he had composed together with George Kinyonga of Simba Wanyika before he left. The reason why they did not record the song was because it was too similar to another Simba Wanyika song that had been recorded called Diana. That song was Sina Makosa.

Sina Makosa released in 1979, became the smash hit that Les Wanyika and Prof Omari are best remembered for. I watched as the flood of money that poured in from the song completely destroyed Prof Omari. He womanized excessively and he took to drinking more and more potent whisky. Eventually it slowed down his fingers on the guitar. Then followed a power struggle for leadership of the band with the more level headed and equally gifted John Ngereza, which the latter won. Prof Omari left the group briefly but came back shortly after and I watched the latter years of a great rhythm guitarist, a mere shadow of his old self but still a joy to watch and listen to in live performances at the then Bombax Club opposite Kenya Science Teacher’s college.

George Kinyonga could only wring his fingers in agony as he watched the song he had refused to record smashing all records in sales.

Prof Omari passed away in 1997 and John Ngereza followed in 2002.

The words of that hit song that made Prof Omari so much money so suddenly that it destroyed him are very appropriate for the grand coalition government that is now in the process of being formed.

You can listen to Sina makosa HERE.

The main words in the song are;

Wewe unawake nyumbani na mimi ni na wangu nyumbani, chuki ya nini kati ya mimi na wewe. (You have your lover at home and I have mine at home, why is there hatred between us.)

I have impeccable information to the effect that the grand coalition which many Kenyans have placed all their hopes on is all about wacha ni kule hapa na wewe ukule huko, hakuna aja ya chuki kati ya mimi na wewe. (Why don’t you eat there and I eat here, there is no need for hatred between us.)

The first deal is the Safaricom IPO. The owners of the mysterious Mobitelea Ventures (who own 12.5% of Safaricom) are about to make a cool 10 billion shillings from the IPO and my sources assure me that the money will be shared with the principals of PNU and ODM respectively. Indeed many Kenyans were taken by surprise when the ODM leader and Prime Minister designate, Raila Odinga suddenly made a 180 degree turn and said that he had no problem with the Safaricom IPO.

Anybody who cares about Kenya, as a matter of principal should not go anywhere near the Safricom IPO. But alas I am aware that I am shouting myself hoarse for nothing. The same principled Kenyans who are always making noise here and elsewhere about corruption are already rubbing their hands in glee waiting for the mother of all IPOs.

I sincerely believe from the bottom of my heart that the time for us Kenyans to put our money where our mouths are has come.

My humble advice is that before purchasing the Safricom shares, which many of you must buy, come what may, Get a good clean mirror and look at yourself in it. If you do so without blinking, just go out and apply for your shares, but you should never waste our time and yours ever complaining again about our leaders robbing us.

P.S. Here is a question that every keen analyst of Kenyan politics should be asking themselves. The country has recently purchased a lot of police equipment and then there has been an urgency to recruit 10,000 policemen and to get them working as soon as possible by even cutting short their usual 6 month training period. What is all this urgency for? Why should there be any urgency at all and there is a poecae agreement that has been signed?

Think hard my brothers, and without emotion… and then keep you eyes trained on this space. Or get hold of Kumekucha’s raw notes.

Famous Man Died From Taking In Enough Calories To Keep An Elephant Alive

The most important weight loss tip has to do with your food intake. Many times the mistake we make is to try and complicate the whole controversial weight issue when it would be more prudent to start with the very basics.

To date the simplest and most valuable weight loss tip is simple watching your calorie intake.

It may be useful to remember this real life story about this famous man who would comfortably take enough calories in a day to keep an elephant alive. And yet the most exercise he would ever get round to doing would be getting up from his couch to get the next high calorie snack to gorge himself with.

Actually food addiction sound harmless enough but experts now insist that this very famous man, well known across the States and indeed all over the world was killed prematurely by his love for food.

We all need a minimum of 1,500 to 1,800 calories every day to stay alive. People doing heavy work and therefore burning lots of calories need even more calories and may require up to about 10,000 calories per day.

Now it is documented that this man I am referring to was consuming over 85,000 calories per day and was sitting around doing nothing more strenuous than reaching forward to flip the channels on his TV set.

The truth is that 85,000 calories is more than enough to keep a full grown elephant alive. And it goes without saying that stuffing one’s body with that kind of calorie intake is bound to cause serious problems as they did fro this individual.

Read the story of the rich man who ate himself to death

Why Is Biwott Transferring Assets Now?

When we were all busy worrying about the post election tensions and turmoil, nobody remembered to analyze exactly what happened in the last elections and especially how the giants fell. Actually one of the major shocks of last december’s general elections was the felling of political giant, Nicholas Kipyator Biwott by a nobody in his Keiyo South constituency. Jackson Kiptanui Kiplagat of ODM garnered 30,380 votes to Biwott’s paltry 9,483.

So for the first time since the late seventies, Biwott is not an MP.

But what should worry Kenyans even more is what Biwott is up to now that he is away from the political limelight and can spend much more time on his colossal business empire. The reason why Kenyans must forever be interested in Biwott is really simple but let me spell it out here. We know how Bill Gates made his money and we also know how the Rockefeller family (descendants of JOHN D. Rockefeller) made their money. Closer to home we have a pretty good idea of how Manu Chandaria came to own so many prosperous companies. Now my question is simple, How did Nicholas Biwott make his money? If I may put it bluntly he made his seed money from stealing public money and taking hefty bribes for major government projects. The Turkwell Gorge Hydroelectric project made Biwott, to name one colossal project.

Sources inform this writer that in recent times the former Keiyo South legislator has been very busy transferring huge funds to the most unlikely of destinations. And that is Canada. The leaked Kroll report told us that the Moi’s for example have been getting pretty nervous and have transferred a lot of their funds to an African country called Namibia. We also know that if push comes to shove accounts in Switzerland and elsewhere can be frozen. So behind this backdrop why would Nicholas Biwott transfer vast sums of his ill-gotten wealth to Canada of all places?

To make things even more fascinating, Biwott is on Visa bans to the West. Meaning that his travel is very limited. He cannot go to most of Europe and the United States. This is the reason why the recent movements of one of his several wives, Eldoret east legislator Prof, Margaret Kamar has raised eyebrows. Prof Kamar has been on an extended visit to most of Europe and other undisclosed stop overs.

Some have even speculating that she is being used to move around Biwott’s cash and to even transact on behalf of him. Hon Prof Kamar was conspicuously absent from parliament on Tuesday when the legislators were passing the landmark bills that emerged from the Annan peace deal.

But experts in these matters point in a different direction in relation to the movement of funds to Canada by Biwott. One of the prominent names to belinked to Biwott in the Krol report was that of his sin-in-law, a Mr Charles Field Marsham. Guess what nationality Mr Marsham is? Surprise, surprise. He is Canadian.

In fact there is now a very easy way to trace Biwott’s involvement in many prominent Kenyan companies. Just look for Mr Marsham’s name in the board of directors.

So could Mr Biwott be handing over most of the colossal family assets to his trusted sin-in-law? What are the legal implications? Can the assets be touched by future investigations and asset freezes? Thos are the questions that this writer is still searching answers for.

You may be reading this and getting a little confused. Maybe you are aksing yourself the question, how many wives does Biwott have? Actually to be honest with you, I have no idea. And I believe few people on the planet do. But theer is also his Israeli wife, maybe the most prominent amongst his wives and the mother of the Biwott daughter who is married to Mr Marsham.

Concerning the transfer of funds, Mr Biwott is capable of anything. Many Kenyans have forgotten or are not aware of the fact that Biwott cut his teeth carrying the late Bruce McKenzie’s briefcase. Mr Mckenzie was the first White face to appear in an independent Kenya cabinet and was appointed agriculture minister by Kenyan’s first president Jomo Kenyatta. But more fascinating is the fact that most people seem to have been aware that the burly, always jovial mzungu was an operative for major foreign spy agencies. It is instructive that Mckenzie died on a flight back to Kenya from Uganda in the 70s. It is believed that Ugandan dictator whom he had come from seeing, planted a bomb on the plane in the form of a “gift” he gave to Mckenzie.

So what I am trying to say is that covert operations are not new to Biwott and one cannot rule out the possibility of his sneaking in and out of countries where he has been barred from visiting.

Theer are indications that a number of major local businessmen are at the moment desperately trying to sell off their local assets. It seems that the recent troubles and the increasing clamour for proper democracy and justice could be scaring them off since most of them have done deals that they may not want to be scrutinized too closely by an unfriendly government of the future.

It will be interesting to observe what happens to Biwott’s assets in Kenya in the next two years or so. Probably his most lucrative operation is the Kenil/Kobil operation which together with Biwott’s personal important of fuel accounts for 17 per cent of the Kenyan oil industry. This is fairly significant in an industry mainly controlled by foreign owned conglomerates.

Sneak preview of Kumekucha's raw notes (latest)

* Why a large chunk of the evidence PNU have against Ruto cannot be used. Impeccable sources deep inside PNU make shocking revelations to Kumekucha that he cannot dare print in the public domain.

A legal expert confirms the legal position concerning this type of evidence to Kumekucha.

* Charity Ngilu is the best health minister Kenya ever produced and many Kenyans would not be interested in her love life...

Like the steamy affair she had with somebody who is very close to president Kibaki at the moment.

* Plus numerous other heart-stopping stories every week.

How To Get Kumekucha's raw notes every week

I have increasingly found that a lot of the raw information I have I am NOT able to use in the public domain and especially here in Kumekucha for various reasons. I have therefore decided to launch a private facility called Kumekucha’s raw notes where I openly share the very latest hot information I have in my notes weekly, and especially what I am NOT able to use directly in Kumekucha. I will charge a mere $15 (or Kshs 990) for one full years' subscription to this information. If you are interested in subscribing to this hot info drop me an email NOW at umissedthis at yahoo dot com and I will give you further details of what you need to do.

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Is William Ruto In Danger Of Being Arrested?

No other politician in Kenya today elicits such strong emotion either of strong hate or extreme fondness. Even Agwambo himself has not been able to keep up with this younger man where extreme emotions from the public are concerned. More so as the latter has tried to mellow down his radical image in preparation for the highest office in the land.

I am of course referring to William Ruto.

Although ODM insiders vehemently deny it, there is a lot of tension within ODM at the moment. In fact the anxiety is much higher than it ever was in the ODM-K days when there was heightened rivalry between Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga over who would be the party’s presidential nominee.

William Ruto is right at the centre of that heightened tension within ODM today.

This is the man who rubbished the decades of experience of retired former President Moi right across the Rift Valley and delivered virtually the entire Kalenjin community to Arap Mibei (as Raila is fondly referred to by the Kalenjins.)

PNU hardliners have always secretly sworn to deal with Ruto whom they accuse of being the chief orchestrator of the unprecedented violence in the Rift Valley. Interestingly this tough talk against Ruto has not ended with the signing of the peace deal, if anything it has increased considerably and impeccable sources tell this writer that evidence that links Ruto to the killings is being gathered even as you read this. Of course it is possible that this evidence is being put together for blackmail purposes. However this possibility is highly unlikely.

Apart from this evidence being gathered against their man, there are other factors responsible for the heightened tension amongst the Kalenjin community within ODM. The Kalenjin strongly feel that whatever has been achieved in partly reversing the blatant stealing of the presidential elections last year, their community has played the biggest role. It is therefore only fair that they get the majority of cabinet posts allocated to ODM in the grand coalition government. They will therefore settle for nothing less than at least 50 per cent or half the posts.

In fact what is making observers like Kumekucha increasingly nervous is the prospect of anybody going after Ruto, more so at this time when the peace is precarious to say the least. Sadly the truth of the matter is that incidences like the burning of women and children inside a church in Eldoret at the height of the violence, which received considerable International media coverage have pushed this whole issue into the realm of International politics and countries like the United States and others are now insisting that perpetrators of that extremely inhuman crime must be punished.

It is said that the Kalenjin militia who surrounded the church and made sure that the doors were bolted, stood and watched as the mostly Kikuyu women and children inside screamed and begged in vain for their lives. In fact it is said that the onlookers appeared to dance in glee at the horrible, horrible sounds coming from inside the church. Not to mention the distinct and unforgettable smell of human flesh burning.

There is no doubting that it was a hideous and ghastly crime. In fact if I were the judge, the first thing I would do would be to send the suspects for intensive psychiatric assessment.

Still there is a rather strong argument being raised by the Kalenjin community and other ODmers. They ask a simple question. Who was the bigger, inhuman murderer, the militia at that church in Eldoret (who killed a dozen or so people) or those behind the outright rigging of the presidential polls last December? This would include President Kibaki, his advisors and even Samuel Kivuitu and his ECK cronies who insist on hanging on to office to enjoy their big salaries and perks as many Kenyans displaced by their actions struggle to find something to eat.

This is an interesting question because those behind the rigging of the elections, assisted by the government of the United States, caused the death of over 5,000 Kenyans and then to add insult to injury falsified the death toll which to this day is reported everywhere as being a mere 1,000. This is laughable if it wasn’t such a serious issue because there are parts of the Rift Valley where one would count hundreds of bodies rotting on the ground and still unburied. Not to mention the packed mortuary in Kisumu which had hundreds of bodies. Add to that the City Mortuary in Nairobi where we have published photographic evidence in this blog that proves that the death toll could not have been 1,000. So who is the worse murderer and shouldn’t that murderer be brought to book before the Eldoret heartless militia? After all justice is supposed to be impartial. Right?

Actually, you can go tell that to the birds. In Kenya it has been known for a long time that “justice” is only meted out against the weak powerless and poor. For example the jails are full of poor people whose only crime is being poor. As you read this some of them are facing murder charges. The true criminals are not only roaming the streets free as a bird, after bribing their way out, but a good number of them are also sitting in high office in government.

Muta-do?

Some PNU insiders have repeatedly claimed that there is irrefutable evidence that links William Ruto to the violence in the Rift Valley. The only problem is that most of it cannot be used because it would compromise State security. But other evidence experts inform me that it is fairly easy to collect other evidence the minute you are sure you have the right man.

Those close to Ruto argue that their man is innocent and that it is other prominent Kalenjin leaders, some of them mere elders, who were behind the murderous violence in the Rift Valley.

William Ruto himself insists that he is innocent and that he has great love and respect for the Kikuyu community pointing out that his own sister is happily married to a Kikuyu.

Assuming that the government with the prodding of the Americans does not carry out their Kamikaze mission against Ruto, what is the political future of this darling of the Kalenjin community?

The bitter truth is that William Ruto for all his gallant political efforts may end up being the ultimate sacrifice of the ODM political party. This is because where the country’s politics is headed clearly does not favor Ruto politically. For starters after what happened in the Rift Valley recently, it matters little whether Ruto was guilty or not because the vast majority of the Kikuyu community would react even more violently than they ever did against Raila if Ruto were to seek the presidency in 2010, 2012 or whatever year it is we will go back to the polls. It is rather obvious that the next 2 presidents at least will have to be widely accepted across both the ODM strongholds and the PNU ones. This is assuming that Kenyans want their nation to be healed from the nightmare that was launched by the actions of a few Kenyans on the 29^th and 30^th of last December. If on the other hand, the idea is secession then Ruto would have a very bright political future. It is as simple as that.

And even as ODM struggle to keep their ship intact, a major determining factor in the immediate future of that party is William Ruto. The Kalenjin community too, will be a major force to reckon with in the next 3 or so presidential elections, even though their blue-eyed boy will most likely not be a participant.

P.S. I have increasingly found that a lot of the raw information I have I am NOT able to use in the public domain and especially here in Kumekucha. I have therefore decided to launch a private facility called Kumekucha’s raw notes where I openly share the very latest hot information I have weekly, and especially what I am NOT able to use directly in Kumekucha. I will charge a mere $15 (or Kshs 990) for one full years subscription to this information. If you are interested in subscribing to this hot info drop me an email NOW at umissedthis at yahoo dot com and I will give you further details of what you need to do.

By subscribing to Kumekucha’s raw notes, you will also be helping to finance the continued existence and enhanced quality of Kumekucha.

Safaricom Introduces 20 Bob Scratch Card As Government Continues To Ignore The Masses

Although it has not officially been announced impeccable sources on the ground inform me that Safaricom agents started selling Kshs 20 (approx US 30 cents) scratch cards today.

Is it any wonder that Michael Joseph’s company is the most profitable outfit in East and Central Africa and probably beyond? And if you want to know their secret, it is really very simple. They listen to the common man and they don’t just listen, they act.

This is in sharp contrast to the political class who have no interest in the common man at all. In fact it is ion their best interests if the ordinary folk remain as poor as possible so that they can bribe them to vote them back into power when the elections come round again.

Ironically on the same day that 20 bob scratch cards were introduced there were running battles along Jogoo road where matatu touts and drivers went on strike over the inadequate facilities at the new matatu terminus in Muthurwa which was created when the government banned matatus from entering the CBD. One protestor interviewed by a local TV station put everything into perspective rather neatly. He said that there were many homes where there were at least 3 private cars. One for the husband, another for the wife and a third one to take children to school. So what was the logic of banning matatus from the CBD? It was better to ban private vehicles. He added that the government should realize that matatus served the majority whom they should take care of.

That simple logic awed me.

Now my question is simple. Will ODM’s enmtry into government change the way government does things? Will ODM succeed where ODM-K failed because I do not hear Kalonzo Musyoka talking about a 24 hour economy and the creation of jobs for ordinary Kenyans. If he fears getting fired, why doesn’t he just voice his ideas and incase he is fired he will be extremely popular with Kenyans.

My apologies for publishing such a naïve thought in this respectable blog. The truth is that the political class would care less if there are no jobs created this year. Their main concern is themselves and their plans.

Yet the success of Safaricom sends forth a very loud and clear loud message. The message is that Kenya has a huge active hardworking population that can be exploited for the benefit of the country. If we can change our economic think for one minute and emulate the good things in countries like China, a double digit growth of the Kenyan economy is very feasible and not the 7 per cent growth on paper that has shed hundreds of thousands of jobs and caused so much misery that it was no surprise that economic growth fell flat on it’s face as a campaign tool in the December 2007 elections. Just as we predicted in this blog.

Sadly the extremely old and ancient thinking in our government will never see the huge well-educated labour force that is unequalled in Africa as an asset. Even when the huge sum of remittances from Kenyans abroad remains the number one foreign exchange earner. They still can’t see. By the way with tourism dead now, forex from Kenyans in the diasporas is the undisputed number one forex earner without a single close competitor.

P.S. Introducing a 20 bob scratch card may look like a simple thing to do but Safaricom have had to make many modifications to their high security scratch cards for a number of years to reach that place where 20 bob cards would be viable. And that is no mean feat. Secondly without the huge and wide distribution network Safaricom currently has and enough numbers such a small denomination card can easily turn out to be more of a headache than an innovation for higher profits.

Who Is Being Backed By The Americans Now?

You Will Never Guess… But They’ve Got It Wrong Yet Again…

There is great anxiety amongst many quarters in Kenya at the moment as to whom the Americans may be backing for the presidency after their Mwai Kibaki honeymoon ended rather unceremoniously with unprecedented blood-letting in Kenya.

If truth be told the Americans contributed a great deal in provoking the post election violence in Kenya by failing to read the mood on the ground and blindly assisting Mwai Kibaki to steal an election in such an obvious manner. It is on record that the World Bank continued to do business with the corrupt Kibaki government days before the elections and their point man, World Bank country director Colin Bruce not only boasted that he knew who would win the presidency, but he even put his sentiments in writing (remember the leaked memos?). This is behind a backdrop where polls showed a close race and one that favoured ODM’s Raila Odinga. The truth on the ground was that at no time was the presidential race in Kenya last December, close. Actually Raila had a very convincing win, bordering on a landslide as even the flawed results showed because he won 6 out of the 8 provinces very decisively indeed. But all that is now water under the bridge.

Any keen observer in International politics will quickly tell you that American foreign policy has really never succeeded anywhere. From Iraq to the mess they have created in neighboring Somalia by orchestrating the removal of a stable Islamic courts government when they had nothing feasible to replace it with. Power abhors a vacuum as any high school history student will tell you.

And the list of American failures in Africa goes on and on.

But nowhere is the consistent and spectacular failure of the Americans’ foreign policy more fascinating than it has been in Kenya.

They started off backing a brilliant young politician called Tom Mboya. Mboya had such influence at one point that it is said that he was easily able to access President John F. Kennedy any time he wanted. The shrewd Mboya on his part milked his relationship with the Yankies to the limit. For instance the famous airlifts to the US enabled hundreds of Kenyans to study in American universities. One of the famous beneficiaries of this is current Internal security minister Prof. George Saitoti.

To date theAmericans have never gotten a better bet than what they had in Mboya. All they had to do was to be just a little careful and lie low and wait and voila, they would have seen their man safely inside State House.

But alas, they still managed to botch the whole thing and made numerous mistakes and many analysts including Kumekucha believe that had TJ gotten his backing from the Brits instead, he would still be alive today and Kenya would be a totally different country.

The mistakes Uncle Sam made with Mboya are the very same mistakes he’s still making to date. The American’s arrogance and superiority complex does not give them the patience to study the situation on the ground more closely and think things through. Or better still, to seek opinions from those who may know. They also seem to have this belief that anybody who can’t string together a few good sentences in English is not intelligent and that persons who can speak the damn language with an American accent are extremely intelligent. This unintelligent approach led to one Daniel arap Moi running circles around the Americans for 24 long years. But I will come to that in a moment.

The Americans failed to correctly analyze the political developments in Kenya where despite Mboya’s immense intelligence, he was making enemies too fast as the young Kenyan nation hurtled towards independence. They totally ignored the less than fluent Jaramogi Oginga Odinga (father to Raila) who proceeded to casually lock Mboya out of the presidency by insisting that Jomo Kenyata be released before independence. The Colonial government at first flatly refused, but later reluctantly accepted. That was the end of Mboya because he could not dare oppose Kenyatta’s release or his ascension to the presidency because it would have meant him losing his Nairobi constituency for good. Most of those who enthusiastically voted for him every time were Kikuyu (Kenyatta’s tribe). Later the Americans failed to see that Mboya’s assassination was bound to happen. Even after a failed first attempt on the Economic Development Minister and Kanu Secretary general where a policeman fired into his empty Mercedes Benz, they failed to take the necessary precautions.

When President Kenyatta died rather suddenly and unexpectedly in August 1978, the Americans like everybody else were taken by surprise. Still they could not hide their delight. They were sure that this time they would get their man in the seat of power because the two front runners to succeed Kenyatta, according to them were both “friends of America.” Mbiyu Koinange was the front runner according to the American state department and second in line was the late president’s nephew, a Stanford educated medical doctor turned politician called Njoroge Mungai. Indeed the influential Time magazine published an article where they echoed these sentiments. The Americans completely ignored the Kenyan constitution and the man who had been running the government of Kenya for years, one Chrales Mugane Njonjo. Meanwhile the Brits had already done their homework and moved in quickly to reassure a frightened and overwhelmed Moi that with their backing he would not need to fear the Kikuyu so much.

What followed was a 24 year Tom and Jerry (I love that classic cartoon) battle between the mighty Americans (Tom the cat in this case) and the humble former herds boy who never saw the inside if a high school, called Daniel arap Moi (Jerry). At the height of the battle, millions were poured into the campaign of one Charity Ngilu with the American hoping to replicate what they had helped happen in the Philippines with Mrs Corazon Aquino, where she swept into the presidency. It failed badly and Ngilu could onmlyu manage a distant fifth position behind the winner Moi, Kibaki, Raila, and Wamalwa Kijana. Moi outsmarted the Americans every inch of the way.

In exhaustion and completely sure that Moi was invincible, the Americans threw in their lot with Moi’s project, Uhuru Kenyatta in 2002. This time they must have been double sure that ythings would go their way. Yet again they failed to read the mood of the Kenyan voters and their determination for change in Kenya.

Now after their failed honeymoon with Kibaki the Americans are said to be supporting Raila Odinga to succeed President Kibaki. Surprise, surprise, yet again they are ignoring the very fluid political situation in the country at the moment. Acvtually klenyan politics has never been as slippery and unpredictable as it is currently. NEVER.

The truth is that even as you read this there is a possible storm brewing within ODM which could easily come to the surface after the announcement of the grand coalition cabinet within the next 10 days or so. There are those ODM supporters who while supporting the grand coalition are not happy about Raila warming up to President Kibaki too much. Some are nervous that it may be a PNU plot to isolate and then divide ODM pentagon members in preparation for moves in future that would be aimed at completely scuttling the unity of the most popular political party in the country.

Then there is the fact that Kenyans seem be increasingly gravitating to a new generation of leadership that is more sensitive and in touch with the needs and aspirations of the people. Indeed the odd silence of the British in this matter should be a clear signal that the Americans may be yet again backing the wrong horse.

Other quarters would put it thus; whatever horse the Americans back, no matter how good their chances of winning, suddenly end up being jinxed out of the race. So based on this past record, the same might just happened to Raila. Only time will tell but if Raila does succeed President Kibaki, it will be the Yankies first success ever in Kenya.

P.S. Just as I was posting this article I received news that a group of Kalenjin MPs within ODM came out today to demand the equal sharing out of the ODM cabinet posts between the Kalenjin on one side and the rest of the communities on the other.

P.S. 2: Kumekucha is in total support of reducing the term of office for the President, Parliament and civic seats to 4 years and a maximum of two terms ONLY in office. So even if somebody rigs themselves in as is the habit, they can only impose themselves on us for a maximum of 8 years. Some MPs have been in parliament so long that they believe the seat is their birthright. Just ask Americans what they would have done if President George W. Bush had been in office for two terms of 5 years each…

Using Security To Play Deadly Political Games

On the day that Francis Muthaura, the head of the civil service made his controversial government clarification statement, Prime Minister designate Raila Odinga’s security was withdrawn for a few hours. Mere coincidence?

On Sunday, the same day that President Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga were seen on the golf course together, the Kenyan military were assembling for the biggest operation in the history of our military since the failed 1982 coup attempt. Mere coincidence?

Two days later (Tuesday) reports started trickling in of fresh skirmishes in Laikipia and Molo. For obvious reasons, this news is being downplayed. Mere coincidence?

Official sources have admitted that the military operation in the Mt Elgon area is likely to move to other areas in the Rift Valley where we have seen violence, like Kuresoi, the border between Sotik and Borabu and Laikipia where fresh skirmishes have already broken out. Mere coincidence?

Concerning Raila Odinga’s security detail and motorcade, the police after hours of stone silence (probably waiting to “hear from above”) issued a detailed statement to the press about the PM’s security detail having a permanent station at Rongai Police Station. So which police station is the president’s security detail permanently based in? The whole idea was to give the impression that the Prime Minister designate Raila’s security has been “beefed up” (whatever that means). No explanation was given for the constant change of Raila’s security personnel. The police only said that “the confusion” would stop when Raila’s security detail had a permanent base. Aii! You mean the police are admitting that there was confusion in Raila’s security arrangements? That’s a bombshell because confusion in Kibaki’s security detail would be a very serious matter and since the Prime Minister is supposed to share power with the president, the same can be said about Raila’s security.

But what is of much bigger concern are the security operations involving the military in Rift Valley.

The whole operation started innocently enough in the Mt Elgon region where many innocent Kenyans have lost their lives to the dreaded Saboat Land Defense Force. But what most Kenyans do not know is that there has been a slow but gradual military build up in the Rift Valley for weeks now (as reported in the blog). And while it is a good idea to rid the Mount Elgon area of the militia, one can’t help but question the wisdom of the tactics being employed. Essentially the rag tag Saboat militia have been using Guerilla tactics. They strike at night and then during the day their members merge with ordinary folk in the area. The military operation in the area has involved air strikes and bombing from the air in an attempt to allegedly flush out the militia from the forest. In other words we are using a hammer to try and swat a fly. Indeed the whole sordid business of skirmishes in the Rift Valley has involved guerilla tactics. So what we are doing is turning our military against our own people. In this kind of scenario, the people who suffer most are ordinary wananchi.

Then there is another really disturbing question. Why dispatch the military to the Rift Valley when a peace deal has been signed with ODM? Why not pursue dialogue in ending all clashes countrywide? Why should Francis Muthaura (he who insists on being called an ambassador) give such a provocative statement on national TV about the powers of the Prime Minister when wounds are still raw and the peace precarious to say the least? Incidentally reports of renewed clashes in areas like Laikipia and Molo broke out shortly after the Muthaura statement. Even more worrying, is the burning question; why clarify details of an agreement that is yet to be finalized? What the press is calling grey areas in the Anan peace accord are details that are to be ironed out in the act through debate in parliament. So why clarify a bill when even debate on it has not began?

By the way Francis Muthaura did not act alone and neither did he receive instructions from the kitchen cabinet or Martha Karua. Those who know the man will laugh really loud at such suggestions.

Understandably, many Kenyans do not know Muthaura or how he operates. The man issues instructions to cabinet ministers (forget the so called protocol he was at pains to emphasize at that human-life-costing press conference of Monday). The man is very powerful and he only takes instructions from one man and one man alone. And that’s the guy who usually seats holed up in State House Nairobi. A fascinating aside here is the fact that President Kibaki is the first president in the history of Kenya to actually live in State House. The last ruler of the land who did that was colonial governor Malcolm Mcdonald.

Not surprisingly, because of the irresponsible manner in which this “duly elected” government has been behaving, there is a lot of tension that has returned to the country. In fact many Kenyans are feeling really sick about the political situation in the country just now. Their hearts have been treated to some kind of sadistic see-saw or yo-yo game. From anxiety during the Anan negotiations to joy when the peace accord was signed recently, to great uncertainty now as parliament begins to debate the bills.

The good news is that parliament seems to have “cleared the ground’ to speedily debate and pass the bills that have emerged from the Anan peace accord. Let us wait and see what happens next.

ODM, PNU Boys Alone In A Room With 10 Ravishing Virgins

…but some naïve Kenyans are still screaming; “we trust you guys”

I’m really sorry guys to spring up a post like this one you are about to read on you on a Sunday of all days, but I really can’t help it. I am one of those guys who hate bad news on a Sunday. Let it wait with everything else until Monday, I always say.

But duty calls and so here goes.

For days now many analysts have been worried sick about the political situation in Kenya. I am talking about analysts who are realists and understand human nature and the fact that hardliners don’t just disappear into thin air. In fact when they become suddenly so quiet, trust me that is the time to really get worried, sick.

Actually on the outside, everything looks quite okay. In fact almost too good to be true.

The mystery was solved for me by one of our writers in Kumekucha called Phil. I have cross checked the earth-shaking information he posted in a comment here on Saturday with some of my most impeccable sources and I can now confidently confirm to Kumekucha readers that what he says is true. And that is, Hon Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki have struck a “secret” deal. The kind of deal that will make the pair stick closer to each other than super glue. That deal was good for peace in Kenya and we are all very grateful that it happened when it did.

The deal is that Mwai Kibaki will name Raila Odinga his heir when he exits from the presidency in the next 2 years or so. Unfortunately that deal is NOT good for the future of Kenya. For starters it means that Raila Odinga will have to look the other way at the evil that Mwai Kibaki and his cronies have done. Yep. A deal is a deal. In return Raila will now smoothly ascend to the presidency.

That my friends, is the worst news you can ever get on a Sunday.

Both PNU and ODM are in government and just about every small political party you can think of apart from two or three with single MPs have all claimed their stake in the grand coalition government as affiliate parties.

Let me explain further the full consequences of the information that I have just given you, with a simple crude example that will however drive the point home beautifully.

Let us assume that you and I are parents of some 10 drop-dead stunningly beautiful “hot” virgins. So far we have managed to keep them safe and pure because the two groups of boys who are always hovering around the gate are bitter rivals. They hate each other so much that the moment one group somehow slips into the house to be alone with the virgins. The other group blows the whistle. Recently it got so bad that the two groups fought physically. It was bad. Some boys broke their legs and there was a lot of blood spilt all over the place. Some good Samaritan came along and held peace talks with the two groups and now the boys are suddenly friends. We are naturally very happy about this because the fight, apart from causing a serious racket in our neighborhood was not good.

But now there are whispers that there was a secret pact between the two groups of red blooded boys that brought about the peace. That secret pact is in the best interests of the boys but not you and I, or the virgins.

To make matters worse you and I as parents are about to take a long trip abroad and leave the 10 virgins all alone in the house and at the mercy of the hovering boys who are for the first time united in their purpose. It doesn’t take a genius to see plenty of trouble ahead. For the virgins and us, that is.

It matters little that we trust some of the boys because they seem to be so well behaved and have pledged that they would never do anything “bad” to the virgins. But hey, this is real life and although the mind may be willing, the flesh is terribly weak. You and I know that those 10 ravishing virgins will be just too much temptation for the boys to resist.

A woman friend of mine used to put it this way; You can’t leave a rat in the paws of a cat overnight and expect that nothing will happen. No matter how disciplined and principled the cat is, he will kill and eat the rat.

Ladies… gentlemen… that is our exact position in Kenyan politics now.

We have two hungry “cats” and we are locking them up in a room with our rat. What do you expect will happen? Some of us think that at least one of the cats can be trusted. Huh! You can’t get more naïve than that.

Many Kenyans are admirers of ODM and Raila Odinga and they are sure that ODM will not “eat” when they are in government. They are also sure that Raila Odinga will not “eat” when he is Prime Minister. That is good. Let time be our judge.

But let us remember that Raila Odinga and ODM have made a deal with the devil. So what can we realistically expect?

The 10 ravishing virgins or the “rat” in this case is all that is stored up at the treasury and the simple Anglo-leasing-like deals that can so easily be pulled off that will put real money in some secret Swiss account. The kind of money that will make any sane mind spin.

Do not get me wrong. I am not saying the peace deal was wrong. Hell NO. Thousands of precious and innocent Kenyan lives have been saved. I am so very grateful for that like so many Kenyans. But now is the time to look ahead beyond these two years of the grand coalition government.

To be very honest with you folks, I don’t see any light in the future. Kenyans are just too relaxed and happy with the current political situation. Even when nobody wants to be in the opposition, it is still “cool” for most of us.

But is it?

10th Parliament: Why Nobody Wants To Be In The Opposition

One would have thought that the best strategy for any politician in the 10th parliament who does not get a cabinet position, would be to position themselves in the opposition in readiness for the next general elections which many people believe will be held in 2 years time.

After all going by what has happened in the past, the government always manages to get unpopular sooner or later presenting a “through pass” to any carefully positioned opposition candidate to easily get re-elected into the august house.

But alas, Kenyan politics always has its’ bizarre twists. It is now becoming clearly evident that hardly anybody in the 10th parliament wants to be in the opposition. Virtually all PNU affiliate parties are saying that they are included in the grand coalition and are therefore in government. The same with ODM affiliate parties. And what complicates matters further is that both PNU and ODM are working very hard behind scenes to ensure that they have a parliamentary majority in the house (just in case).

What that means is that contrary to what we are being told, there will hardly be any opposition in the 10th parliament unless something changes drastically. The “opposition” task it seems will be left to the press and the rising power of blogs like Kumekucha but that is hardly the same thing as having a strong opposition in the house.

Forget about the back bench because when all the numbers are in government a back bencher in say ODM or even PNU is of no consequence.

Those who understand Kenyan politics well are fully aware of the reason why there is this mad scramble for government as if there were no political tomorrow. It is simply because most MPs need to recover the cash they spent in the last elections and make a huge profit while thye are at it. The opposition or the back benches is hardly the place to do this. Secondly in the past MPs have been able to make good money in a situation where there is an opposition that threatens to be stronger than government in terms of numbers in the house. This is exactly what the situation was during the hotly contested election for the speaker. However the situation has now been dramatically altered because of the grand coalition between ODM and PNU which means that opportunities to receive hefty bribes to vote one way or the other have been wiped out. What all this does it to leave one prize and one prize alone—being in government.

However what most of the politicians in the 10th parliament have forgotten is that the same “razor” that shaved most of their opponents who missed to return to parliament will be waiting again to shave them barely 2 years from now. The Kenyan public is getting very impatient with their politicians and it seems that most legislators have failed to read the writing on the wall.

Then there is the likelihood that the new constitution which will be passed by parliament will sideline many politicians from “eating” positions. For instance there is a high likelihood that if the Bomas draft is adopted, there will no longer be ministerial or cabinet appointments for MPs. In short the noose is slowly tightening on the unsuspecting and terribly short-sighted legislators in the 10th parliament.

Another interesting development is the gathering storm within ODM over one of the two soon-to-be-created Deputy Prime Minister’s seats. Interestingly the PNU side (which is expected to produce one of the two Deputy Prime Ministers) is also deeply embroiled in a serious struggle for the seat amongst its’ ranks and the names of Uhuru Kenyatta, Martha Karua and George Saitoti have been voiced within the PNU camp as possibles. Even more interesting is a report in a local daily that there was a meeting yesterday at a city hotel attended by Amos Kimunya, Martha Karua and Uhuru Kenyatta to strategize on how one of them can secure the Deputy PM post. But the storm in ODM is huge in comparison to whatever may be brewing in the PNU camp and if it is not handled skillfully could prove to be divisive at a critical time. Rift Valley supporters of the party are of the view that they made the largest sacrifice in fighting for the new political dispensation. The feeling is that they therefore deserve the deputy Prime Minister’s seat much more than Western province where votes were almost split and ODM supporters allowed too much encroachment by PNU. However Ruto’s appointment to the Deputy premiership will deeply disappoint the Luhya community who are holding on to their belief that their man Musalia Mudavadi will be Raila’s anointed heir. It’s a tough call but all factor’s considered, if I were Raila I would appoint William Ruto (don’t want to mess around with the unpredictable Kalenjin at this time) and then retain Mudavadi as “deputy captain” of the party.

There is of course the remote possibility that the problem will be solved for Raila if the 50/50 agreement is enforced which means that the Vice president has to come from ODM and that post would go to Musalia Mudavadi. Incidentally Mudavadi is one character that PNU would be happy to work with.

What Does Jeff Koinange's K24 Stand For?

Towards the end of last year, a brand new 24 hour news channel was quietly launched into the Kenyan market. Apart from a full page advertisement in the Standard newspaper, there was very little else in terms of promotion.

Today barely 4 months later, this new TV station clearly modeled along the lines of Atlanta based CNN continues to quietly exist.

To be fair, K24 has had its’ moments. Many of these have emerged from their eyewitness news segment that brings breaking news. The idea is to evolve this into some sort of citizen journalism thing where virtually anybody can report from where it is happening. During the troubled times that our country has recently passed through there are many potentially award winning features that have been aired in this segment. One sticks out very clearly on my mind where host jeff Koinange interviewed a German woman in the ruins and ashes of a burnt down children’s orphanage in Eldoret. Apparently what angered locals was the fact that children hailing from different tribes were happily interacting with each other.

It was also on K24 that I saw an intimate interview with ODM’s William Ruto, expertly conducted by Jeff Koinange on the lawns of what is clearly the famous journalists’ favorite hotel, namely the Norfolk Hotel. Koinange used his wide array of skills to ask the controversial legislator every question even his enemies would have loved to ask, and did it with such finesse that there was never a hint of offence on his guests face at any single moment.

There are a lot of other creative news and human interest segments being aired at K24. In brief there are a lot of good things going for this new TV channel owned by Kameme FM owner Rose Kimotho. Clearly its’ strength is Jeff Koinange. Years of experience with CNN and at the very top in International journalism are clearly showing in everything that our very own Jeff Koinange does.

Sadly the big weakness of the new TV station is the fact that Jeff Koinange hardly has any backing to speak of. Indeed the shoddy design graphics and presentation as well as the kind of editing that would cause plenty of laughter in Atlanta, has put off a lot of first time viewers from what is in my view excellent content. Sadly if you look around for views from most Kenyans, the word that keeps on coming up is “amateurish.” Clearly our world today is such that it doesn’t matter what the guy walking into the job interview says, as long as he is not dressed properly. First impressions seem to be everything in our media crowded world. The fact that the great and experienced Jeff Koinange is a presenter alongside other well known names like Eric Latif (formerly of KTN Prime Time) seems to have been neutralized.

The folks at K24 are clearly oblivious of the basic structural issues that they must take care of to really soar.

Currently only Kenyans in Nairobi and it’s close environs are able to receive K24 signals.

There is one other thing that I have noticed. The same thing that happens in numerous enterprises owned by Kikuyus seems to be happening at K24, which is a great pity. In a country that is very ethnic sensitive at the moment, there are too many Kikuyu presenters on K24. It seems that they were not able to find qualified presenters from other communities. Just the kind of thing that would cause people to brand it the Kikuyu 24 news channel.

See also; The Changing Face of Kenyan Television

Everybody Can NOT Be In Government

Kalonzo And Mungatana Squirm At The Writing On The Wall

Kalonzo Musyoka and one Danston Mungatana are putting up a brave face but the writing is already on the wall, both gentleman are about to be shoved into political oblivion and when the new republic emerges, there will no longer be room for their brand of old style heckler politics.

Apparently the 50/50 sharing between PNU and ODM extends to parastatals and ambassadorial appointments and that must have a lot of people very worried and lacking in sleep at night.

It is already apparent that the slots have suddenly shrunk for PNU supporters so much so that there is talk now of having a colossal cabinet of at least 36, so as to squeeze in at least 18 ministers apiece (rather than just 16). Do the math and put some faces next to the names and you’ll suddenly realize that 18 cabinet positions are extremely few. There is no way they can go round PNU, Narc-Kenya and ODM-Kenya. It is safe to assume that most of the posts will remain within PNU and other affiliate parties will be extremely lucky to get even one. Based on this assumption it will be difficult for Kalonzo “sent hecklers to the funeral of a female colleague’s mother” Musyoka to retain the vice presidency.

But the LSK (Law Society of Kenya) chairman Kong’o Omogeni and the EALS (East African Law Society) President Tom Ojienda had a very clear message for Hon Musyoka yesterday. They told him that the current PNU and ODM agreement over rides any prior covenants that may have been made and Musyoka should take up the leadership of the opposition as the official leader of the opposition.

The lawyers, in a telephone interview with one of the dailies emphasized that a structured opposition was needed and the idea of having everybody in government should be discouraged. The lawyers further advised that those amending the constitution should put a clause allowing parties with less than 30 MPs to form the official opposition and should also be at liberty to form a coalition with other smaller political parties.

Their suggestion will fall in deaf ears because Kalonzo Musyoka’s brand of politics has no manual for operation in a minority weak back bench. Already the minister is squirming and doing everything possible behind the scenes to ensure that he retains the vice presidency. Actually most Kenyans do not realize how desperate the situation is for Mr Musyoka. You see there are a number of people who financed his presidential campaign and usually people with that kind of money do not “invest” where they can reap no returns. What this means is that without the vice presidency, it will not be possible to recover the investment. You see the vice presidency is where certain contracts and other “deals” can be influenced to bring in this return. So if Musyoka is dropped, then these rich gentlemen will be very upset indeed and chances are that they could ask Mr Musyoka himself to take up the burden of paying them back their cash. That is how serious things are.

But what poor Kalonzo Musyoka does not realize is that there are other stake holders who want to see him out of the vice presidency as soon as possible. These stakeholders are the vast majority of voters who voted ODM and consider Mr Musyoka a traitor. The VP has always brushed aside the criticism saying that this was just noise from the Luo supporters of Raila Odinga. However it is now clearly event that Mr Musyoka does not have support from virtually all provinces save half of his own Kamba community. Central supported him only for as long as he could help prop up the PNU government.

Mr Musyoka is known to be a very proud man, and therefore he should just save face early be resigning his position from the vice presidency and save himself the embarrassing situation of being dropped when President Kibaki announces his grand coalition government.

Things are not any better for Mungatana and his Narc-Kenya colleagues. Today they held a meeting to “re-position” themselves as a party and to remind the president that “Narc-Kenya is a very big party and the only party apart from KANU that has grassroots support countrywide.” Those are Mungatana’s words and not mine.

This is really just putting more pressure on President Kibaki for nothing because no matter what he does, there are only so many cabinet seats available.

Come to think of it, a Kalonzo/Mungatana team in the opposition would do just fine.

P.S.

Hundreds of youths held a strange demonstration in Nairobi CBD this morning demanding for the immediate release of suspected Mungiki leader John Maina Njenga who is serving a 5 year jail term for being caught in possession with illegal firearms. They were later dispersed by police and melted into downtown Nairobi where they fought running battles with police along Kirinyaga road and Globe Cinema roundabout.

This is a very worrying development and raises a number of questions. Was this demonstration to announce the resurgence of the group with the imminent ascension to power of Raila Odinga as the Prime Minister? It is difficult to imagine that there are no political interests supporting the Mungiki activities of this morning. While I already know that hardliners in President Kibaki’s inner cabinet are extremely annoyed at recent developments, I have been asking myself the question; what will the hardliners and radicals within PNU do next? It seems that even as I was preparing my piece posing that million shilling question, I have already received my answer. A rather chilling answer I must say.

ODM’s Deadly International Media Spin Machine

Go to Google or any search engine and do any search you wish to on the disputed general elections of last year. You will quickly note that the International media seems to be very ODM-friendly. I can assure you that that is no accident. Somebody worked very hard to make that happen.

Now let us not be naïve to start jumping to conclusions here. It is true that the December 2007 general elections were stolen. Ask most 3 or 4 year old Kenyan children and they will tell you so. We all saw it happening live on Television. However the International community didn’t, not really. Many of them were not really paying attention and at least one super power that has since done a 180 degree turn, assisted in that rigging exercise that horribly went wrong. Actually most of the world’s attention at that time was focused on Pakistan where former Prime Minister Mrs Bhutto had just been assassinated.

So when trouble broke out in Kenya, they wanted to know what really happened. The reality in this harsh media dominated world we live in today is that reality is not as important as perception (although the two are related as we shall see later in this post). So it is terribly important that your story is told. And that is the work of spin experts. I personally prefer to call them spin artistes.

The difference between reputable spin artists like ODM’s Salim Lone and a spin quack like Dr Alfred Mutua is one very simple thing. There are those who believe that they can spin anything and there are those who know that to be successful in the long term, it is important that you spin only the truth. You remember the famous president John F. Kennedy quote that ends with; you can’t fool all the people all the time? In fact fake spin doctors like Dr Mutua have always ended up being a liability to their employers.

The other difference is that reputable PR experts (if you prefer to call them that) are noble and will not hesitate to make personal sacrifices. Salim Lone’s life was threatened by somebody a few weeks ago and he would have given the world his story and attracted all the limelight and media attention to hismelf. But at what price? The attention would have effectively been shifted away from his client. So, because he was able to deal with the problem of his personal security, he was determined that the attention of the media remains focused on ODM at a very crucial time leading up to the signing of the historic peace deal last Thursday. It is this kind of character trait that wins the trust of journalists who are crucial allies in any spin effort. In sharp contrast police commissioner Maj Gen Hussein Ali is of the view that the best way to handle the “annoying” media is to talk down at journalists and lecture them while ridiculing as many of their questions as you possible.

You may want to be quick to downplay the achievements of Lone and the ODM spin machine. But there are numerous examples of how things can go dreadfully wrong even for somebody who is justified in what they are trying to do. As you read this, the mention of the name Robert Mugabe brings immediate images of some dictator that has hung onto power for too long. Yet if you do some serious research on the Zimbabwe situation and what led to Mr Mugabe’s controversial land policies you will be shocked. Actually it was all triggered by the UK going back on their word to Mugabe. Or shall we say their failure to honor an MOU they had with Mugabe concerning the land issue. So while Mugabe over-reacted, his side of the story will probably never be told and anyway at this juncture nobody is interested in listening to it. That is the harsh and sad reality of perception.

In other words in the case of Lone, Kenyans owe this man a deep debt for keeping the Kenyan crisis in the right perspective in the eyes of the very influential international media. If that had not happened, the International community would have helped PNU clamp down on dissent and history would have taken a totally different turn.

Fascinatingly the official word from ODM last week was that Salim Lone had left (a Nation article pouring cold water on my exclusive here about Lone’s personal security issues referred to Lone as the former ODM media director). But his replacement, Tony Gacoka has not issued a single press release to the media to date and yesterday Lone was spotted at Orange House doing his old job.

Actually whispers that I had heard last week were to the effect that Lone still retained his client, ODM but was carrying out his duties from New York where he was said to be busy working on the next crucial phase of the ODM spin. Just observe the international support that will pour into Kenya channeled through the office of the Prime minister.

As for Dr Mutua, he’s really just wasting tax payers funds being retained as government spokesman because he is a laughing stock among the media and most Kenyans. I am afraid that usually that means that his clients/employers draw the same sentiments from the public.

Vicious Power Struggle Begins In Kenya

Is Kalonzo about to lose the vice presidency?

The leadership qualities of one Kalonzo Musyoka were clearly visible for all to see this last Saturday in Ukambani. If you are still of the old school and believe that a strong leader is one who hires people to jeer and intimidate an opponent and perceived threat to yourself at the funeral of her mother, then Kalonzo is quite a brilliant leader.

Actually what we are now seeing are just the initial signs of a vicious power struggle that is beginning to unfold in Kenya between the old school politicians and the new emerging generation of political leaders.

But let me start at the beginning.

On Saturday the political action in Ukambani was at the funeral of the late mother of the MP for Kathiani, Wavinya Ndeti. Before I go any further, let me tell; you a little about this gallant woman (who also happens to be a drop dead beauty “supu” at the age of 39.) I will post an appropriate photograph the moment I get it).

Wavinya managed to beat a very strong field of men to make history as the first woman to win a parliamentary seat in the history of Machakos district. That field of opponents was led by the immediate former MP Kyalo Kaindi who poured money like there was no tomorrow. Just to illustrate to you how things are changing in Kenya; money usually works miracles in Kathiani constituency. But this time, the people took the money and voted differently. All signs are that in Wavinya we are witnessing the emergence of another Charity Ngilu (just remember that you read it first in Kumekucha long before it came to pass). Incidentally Wavinya is a Kamba word that means “the one of power” or “the strong one.”

So back to my story. Hon Wavinya Ndeti was in mourning for her dear beloved late mother and deserved a quiet funeral to bury the woman who brought her to this world. But there was no way that VP Kalonzo Musyoka would allow that to happen. Busloads of people were hired mainly from the Kibwezi area and they arrived at the funeral having been carefully briefed on what to do. Before the graveside service was even done, the onslaught began. It was all kicked off by one of the main financiers of Kalonzo’s presidential campaign, Johnstone Muthama who invited the councilors who were present to “greet” the people. What happened next was that speaker after speaker castigated the likes of poor Wavinya for daring to criticize “the king of Ukambani” and the alleged president in waiting who will easily be elected in 2012 (some pipe dream). Meanwhile the hired jeering mob started making a lot of noise in support of what was being said against Wavinya. Imagine gown men all coming to attack a defenseless woman in mourning.

The whole idea was to scare the rebel MPs back into line. Kalonzo probably figured that he would be able to successfully scare “this young girl.” The very opposite seems to have happened. Wavinya emerged from her baptism of fire to hit back at the Kalonzo supporters and appeared to have gotten substantial support from the neutral mourners.

But the real drama followed later when Kalembe Ndile spoke to the mourners and appealed for calm (after the hired hands had mostly left).

Kalembe told a section of the crowd something that probably explains the unbecoming behavior of the “duly appointed” Vice President of the republic of Kenya. He told a very attentive audience that James Orengo (one of the two men together with AG Amos Wako who drafted last Thursday’s historic agreement) had explained to him the implications of the 50/50 agreement. Kalembe says that he was told that it means that everything has to be shared 50/50. Meaning that if the president is from PNU, then the VP has to be from ODM apparently the agreement even stretches to the appointments of ambassadors and High commissioners. Meaning that if the Ambassador to the US is PNU then the High commissioner to the UK will have to be ODM and so forth.

What this means is that VP Kalonzo (or Kaloozer as some readers here love to call him) is set to join the ranks of Kenya’s short-serving VPs. In other words the man who hires goons to disrupt funerals is about to lose the Vice Presidency. His strategy seems to be to ensure that the whole of Ukambani is firmly behind him so as to make it more difficult for him to be dropped. I leave it to you to judge the wisdom of such a move. But I can tell you that these are old ancient tactics learned from the late Mulu Mutisya a man who never saw the inside of a classroom in his life and yet Kalonzo was a devoted student to the man. I can also authoritatively tell you that Kalonzo does NOT have the support of the whole of Ukambani. Actually the community has been split right down the middle and those against him are probably more than those who are for him.

Fellow Kenyans, what we are seeing is the beginning of a power struggle that will be vicious. Not between the big boys Raila and Kibaki (theirs will pale in comparison) but between politicians from the old school and the impatient new rookies who have come in with clear instructions from the people who elected them. And that is they want change and are sick and extremely tired of the old ways.

Kibaki’s Game Plan: Is A Major Purge Imminent?

Most folks believe that history is pretty boring. And yet history never disappoints the researcher looking for answers to current problems. I am a researcher always looking for answers to current questions from history and I recently came across the following gem.

The Special Branch was formally created in 1952 mainly to help deal with the Mau Mau uprising. It acted as a secret intelligence unit for the colonial government. And guess what? What finished Mau mau was not the superior fire power. It was good intelligence from the Special Branch.

The reason why this information was a gem to me is because when the current mess is finally sorted out one of the things that will need to be looked at is the role played by the NSIS (National Security Intelligence Service) and especially the role of its’ Director General, one Major Gen, Michael Gichangi.

Historians will not fail to note that it was during Gichangi’s watch as “principal advisor to the president and the government of the Republic of Kenya on matters related to national security and intelligence” that the biggest political crisis in the history of East Africa unfolded in the country.

Fascinating tit bits about what the 49 year old did and more importantly what he did not do are beginning to emerge. Some unconfirmed reports indicate that President Kibaki is very upset and disappointed at the performance of the Director General during this period of crisis. The reason is that ODM leaders seem to have outwitted him at every corner. For instance it was widely expected that ODM would go to court after losing the presidential elections. However anybody who knew just a little about Raila Odinga would have known that there was no way he was going to go to Kenyan courts to seek legal redress. Especially after some suspicious appointments of judges just before the polls (interestingly everybody seems to have missed the significance of that). And as if that was not enough, the DG again wrongly predicted that the violence and unrest would easily fizzle out after all “the Luos will not throw stones for more than a day or two.” But what actually happened seems to have caught the intelligence community in Kenya by surprise. The Kalenjin community caused unprecedented chaos and deaths and are still a very serious threat.

Now the latest information this blogger is privy to indicates that the DG is about to make yet another huge mistake that will cost Kenyan lives and push the country over the cliff so to speak. It has been recognized that for the current government to survive, they will have to crack the whip. That will mean clamping down on dissenters. There are some people who believe that the purge on the media has already begun with the so-called ministry task force to analyze the media’s role before and after the 2007 general elections. Hardliners have been talking about that purge for months now and would like to include even the ODM top brass. One of Gichangi’s tasks will be to analyze the effects of such a move and its’ repercussions on national security. The verdict that Gichangi’s bosses will be pushing for is that of “it is manageable.” Indeed the arrest of the veteran Rift Valley MP Kibuor has yet to result in any violence in the Rift Valley and this should be an encouragement and apparent “proof” that the potential fall out can indeed be managed.

However information on the ground indicates that this would be yet another major miscalculation on the government side. The current relative calm being witnessed in most parts of the country can deceive. There are many who dread it and believe that what we are seeing is the usual calm before a major storm.

Those who make decisions in the Kibaki administration should remember that the same strategy of creating fear to nip dissent in the bud has recently been tried with disastrous results. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that when the violence started, the police were order to shoot to kill. The idea was to spread fear in the rioting mobs since it is widely believed that everybody fears death. Even animals fear death. That was a terrible, terrible miscalculation because it only fanned emotions and escalated the violence to new heights. Where else in the world have you heard of women and children being locked up in a church which is then set on fire as the perpetrators watch in glee, almost dancing to the terrible screams of agony?

Those who know Gichangi well say that he is a perfect fit into the Kibaki inner circle. Well educated and intelligent but too sure of himself and cocky so that big miscalculations are inevitable. Indeed one puzzle most Kenyans are yet to answer is how a man who never saw the inside of a High School (retired President Moi) ended up being a better manager and much more political savy operator than an economic professor who was the first African to score the maximum 6 points in the O-levels exams. The answer I believe is in the fact that there is a certain humbleness and streetwise nature in self-educated men who start out their careers in a less distinguished manner.

It is said that Kibaki does not think much of anybody who did NOT go to Makerere University let alone somebody who has never seen the inside of a University lecture hall. Little wonder that he is surrounded by intellectual types, very intelligent but political fools who have driven the country to disaster.

Incidentally one of the most influential advisors to President Kibaki at the moment is one Joe Wanjui. The man is as arrogant as they come and a lot more at that. He hails from the old school and “Luo” is to him a dirty word. Wanjui is extremely wealthy but the right question to ask here is why the multinational, Unilever edged him out of the company’s top management, prematurely.

Whatever Major Gen. Gichangi tells Kibaki this time, one thing is very clear, Mwai Kibaki’s game plan can only end up with one result and one result alone. CHAOS.

Just How Broke Is The Kenyan Government?

When this crisis was just beginning and long before Kenyans and the international community knew who Mwai Kibaki really was, we tried to predict the outcome of this mess with a friend and we both agreed that the deadlock would not be broken by war or anything else.

It would all hinge on money.

If the Kibaki administration managed to keep the money flowing in and the bills paid, then it was going to be a long, long fight.




What we did not agree on with my friend (who is a financial expert and understands Kenya well) was just how vulnerable the Kenyan economy was. In his view it was going to take a lot to bring the folks at the Treasury down to their knees. He emphasized to me that the Kenyan economy was NOT the Zimbabwean economy. If truth be told, he has mostly been right. However a number of extraordinary factors have quickly combined to completely change the scenario.

Despite Finance Minister Amos Kimunya’s brave face and cocky statements to the effect that the economy would hardly be scathed even after the devastating post-election violence that has swept across the country, the reality is different.

We are not all financial experts so let’s keep this simple.

Imagine that Kenya is an individual who receives money but has numerous bills to pay. Survival hinges on receiving enough money to be able to pay their bills on time. Before we start looking at where the money is coming from it is important to note that this chap called Kenya hardly saves any money and in recent times has been a huge spender. That combination can be deadly.

This guy Kenya has been receiving most of his cash from tourism. In recent years tourists have been flooding the country in unprecedented numbers. We all know that that source of income has been wiped out. Probably the most telling sign that things are really bad was the cancellation of all Paris flights by Kenya Airways two days ago. While it is true that France does not give Kenya many tourists, one needs to understand how airlines like Kenya Airways work. Usually the idea is to juggle routes in such a way as to keep the income stream that is flowing in, as high as possible. Cancellation of one destination does not affect just that country. It will have a trickle down effect on virtually the entire European network and beyond because of issues like flight connections. If truth be told the managers at KQ must already be in a cold sweat.

The other major source that puts cash in Kenya’s pocket is the collection of taxes. Not only have numerous businesses not transacted much since December last year, but there are certain lucrative areas of tax collection that have been shut down. As you read this the Rift Valley, Kenya’s rich bread basket has virtually shut down. Again the effect of this cannot be limited to the Rift Valley alone. The businesses there had suppliers from all over the country some of whom will now have to close shop.

Spending on the other hand has gone through the roof since December 30th or thereabouts. Keeping some semblance of law and order has required the largest deployment of policemen and the military in the history of Kenya. The bill is a top secret but I can tell you that it is colossally HUGE.

The picture is pretty grim, but what this guy called Kenya is trying to do is put on a brave face and pretend that all is well. This is critical because as long as the Mboga woman whom you owe a big debt sees you driving in every day, then her confidence will still be in place because all people who keep cars on the road have a lot of money, or so she thinks. You don’t want her to see you catch the matatu as your car remains parked outside your compound. That would cause her to lose confidence and demand immediate payment and that would mean no more vegetables on your dinner table.

This is precisely the reason why Kenya has been at pains to paint an image of business as usual.

However as you read this, the government has ruthlessly cut down on all spending except that of very essential items. The idea is to keep wage and salary bills paid for as long as possible. But already all the signs are there that it is only a matter of time before some department of government has their salary delayed.

The reason why all this should worry Kenyans a lot is because the hard-line stance and the way PNU folks are talking does NOT make sense at all when you consider the cash situation. The facts suggest that Mwai Kibaki should have greatly softened in his stand by now. So what does he know that we DO NOT know?

How will the country survive the next few weeks and months?

It is frightening evidence that Mwai Kibaki may just be playing the most dangerous card of all. What I call the Samson option. You all know the Samson story in the bible. When surrounded by enemies on all sides and with his eyes gorged out, Samson felt his strength returning and asking God for the anointing one last time, he was guided to the pillars of the building and sued his strength to bring it all down, destroying himself and all his enemies with him.

God forbid that the slogan amongst insiders in State house is NOT; No Kibaki, No Kenya.

The Big News Everybody Missed

Some very strange events took place yesterday in Nairobi.

Kofi Anan went into a meeting with Mwai Kibaki at the president’s office at Harambee house. When they emerged from the meeting it was announced that President Kibaki had completely rejected the power sharing idea floated by the International community to end the political crisis in Kenya.

Everybody seems to have missed that very significant development. Except the razor sharp alert KTN and Standard group folks. Daily Nation which has been carrying some disturbingly bizarre headlines, packaged the news differently and the headline is about Kibaki’s proposals to end the polls crisis. More on why the Nation are behaving the way they are, later in this post.

The significance of this news is that Mwai Kibaki has trashed what the entire International community is saying. The Americans are rich guys but one wonders what was the point of Condi Rice, burning jet fuel all the way to Nairobi to deliver a message that has been totally rejected without any serious consideration.

But even stranger was the reaction of ODM. The silence of the party was deafening. In fact over the last few days ODM has said very little. Why?

One theory is that the party does not want to accused of incitement or to be associated in any way to the violence that is bound to break out when news of Kibaki’s latest stand finally trickles down to the Rift Valley. Another is that they have realized that the best strategy is to led blundering Mwai Kibaki produce the rope himself and proceed to hang himself, which is precisely what is happening currently. It is increasingly clear, as Mutahi Ngunyi so aptly puts it, that this crisis is NOT about 2 people. It is not about Raila and Kibaki. Actually it is about one man. That man is Mwai Kibaki who wields all the power to end the crisis yesterday or last week.

Clearly the writing is on the wall. The talks will not work. In fact listening to Kibaki’s foot soldiers who are all saying the same thing, it is clear that PNU’s strategy is to use delaying tactics and just hold out until everybody tires and the next elections are around the corner. It remains to be seen whether this plan will work. Interestingly Danston Mungatana (who is also a lawyer by profession) says that any agreement arrived at by the peace negotiations, like power sharing, will need to get the approval of the people of Kenya through a referendum.

So what is going to happen next?

To start with I have no reason to doubt reports reaching me that there is heavy presence of the Kenya army in the Rift Valley. That means that the Kalenjin militia who the foreign press are telling us are preparing for war, will be dealt with. Only that the army is hardly trained to deal with civilian unrest. And besides it could easily degenerate into a guerrilla war which will be terrible news. Whatever the case the casualties are bound to be high.

It seems that the international community are also ready. Sample George W. Bush’s words in Rwanda yesterday;

What George Bush said;

“One of the lessons I take from the Rwanda genocide is to take some early warning signs seriously…

“Pay attention to the warning signs and prevent crises like this from happening. We are obviously trying to prevent such a crisis from happening in Kenya. Condi Rice briefed the president in her meeting yesterday (Monday), and we strongly support Kofi Annan’s efforts.

“I am not suggesting that anything close (to what happened in Rwanda) is happening in Kenya or is gonna happen, but I am suggesting that there are some warning signs that the international community needs to pay attention to. And we are paying attention to it and I know the AU will as well.”

P.S. It is said that the Nation editorial staff are under firm instructions from Paris (where the majority share holder the Aga Khan is based) to take a very low profile and to support Mwai Kibaki’s government as much as possible. That is why the headlines you see in Nation are bizarre these days.

My favourite so far is the one that talked about Anan signing a half way deal with PNU and ODM. Does anybody have any idea what that may mean? A half way deal?

Actually senior staff at the Nation group are all very jittery at the moment because the word on the street is that the Aga Khan is about to announce major changes at Nation Center. Nobody knows how major and nobody knows who is leaving and who is being promoted.

That fax could come through at any moment and on any day. Quite a terrible waiting situation to be in.

Why Has Salim Lone Fled From Kenya?

Famous Veteran Kenyan Journalist, ODM Communications Chief And Former United Nations Media Director Tells Friends That He Feared For His Life…

Sometime today (Monday Feb 18th 2008) some top ODM officials will get a little surprised when the party communications chief Salim Lone fails to return from what was supposed to be a brief trip to New York hurriedly taken last week.

The truth is that Salim Lone has been telling close friends abroad that he fled for his life from Kenya after threats from PNU. However a few things do not add up. Why keep everything secret from the ODM top brass? And if it is true that he was threatened, why has he still not gone public with the story that he has told many close friends?

Actually Lone’s action has caused lots of anxiety amongst close analysts and observers of the Kenyan situation but before I tell you why, a brief introduction of Lone to those who may not know him is in order.

Salim Lone is a Kenyan by nationality, a veteran journalist, and former Director of the News and Media Division, Department of Public Information, of the United Nations. He has also been a rather prolific columnist for the Daily Nation and also writes regularly for The Guardian in the UK.

Salim Lone was director of the news and media division (1998-2003) during his twenty one year career at United Nations headquarters. His last assignment was as spokesman for the UN mission in Iraq immediately after the US-led 2003 war and occupation.

Lone was the founding editor of the pioneer woman’s monthly in Kenya, Viva in the 70s and was in fact forced to flee the country during the early Moi years fearing arrest for some of his political pieces in Viva a magazine. That was what led to his arrival in New York and a 21 year career at the UN. Still he is no stranger to harassment from Kenyan security agents in those terrible years of limited press freedom where numerous activists disappeared and brave writers disappeared without trace.

So the truth is that Lone does not scare easily. That is why analysts are ev en more worried and are wondering what exactly caused the ODM communications director to suddenly hop onto a plane and flee.

Admittedly, it seems clear that Lone no longer felt safe in Kenya. But what is this threat which ODM and Raila Odinga could NOT adequately protect him from? And why keep his intentions secret by telling ODM colleagues that he was away briefly and would be back by Monday (today)?

Clearly Lone knows something that many of us do not know yet. One theory is that he was made aware that President Kibaki is about to arrest and detain without trial, all top pentagon members and their close associates. (Yes, the constitution still empowers him to d just that). The information that Kumekucha has from impeccable sources is that the Kamikaze-like Kibaki administration has been agonizing for weeks now over this decision. Hardliners within the Kibaki camp favor such a move and have been pushing for it. Those who know the president are well aware of his weakness of avoiding to make decisions until it is too late. He delayed his exit from Kanu until the very last minute and even waited until Christmas day December 1991 to announce his defection from Kanu to form his own political party, DP (Democratic Party).

Again, during his first term as president, Kibaki delayed making a decision about the LDP rebels within the Narc coalition and as a result allowed the rebellion to spread and the popularity of the rebels to rise to the detriment of his own. And when he finally got rid of them, he did it by dissolving the entire government. He however got a rude shock when for the first time in Kenya’s history a number of politicians rejected their appointments to the cabinet. Only a last minute desperate deal with Ford Kenya ad Musikari Kombo as well as Charity Ngilu, saved his government.

True to form, those who know the president well are predicting that he is about to make a drastic belated step in restoring order and stamping his authority as the “duly elected president.” Never mind about the Anan talks.

Another theory to explain Salim Lone’s decision to flee Kenya so suddenly is the much-talked about second wave of violence, which the Kalenjin community has called the “coming war,” which is widely expected to beak out if and when the Anan talks fail to reach an agreeable conclusion. It is possible that Lone felt that it would be difficult to leave the country then and therefore opted to flee early before the human waste hits the fun, as some people say.

This is the kind f speculation that has kept most analysts on their toes, even as Lone sticks to his story that he was threatened by some sympathizers of PNU. Whatever anybody wants to believe, it is clear that something very major is about to happen in Kenya.

Read a recent article on Salim Lone, complete with pictures.

P.S. This is a rather humbling time for Kenya. About two years ago a brief discussion about Kenya in Washington between Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete and President Bush sparked off a diplomatic row with complaints coming from the Kenya foreign office. Yesterday a similar discussion took place in Dar-es-salaam between Bush and Kikwete and this time there wasn’t even a whimper from Kenya.

Read the full account of this meeting that ended with Bush leaving a grant of almost one billion US dollars to President Kikwete and Tanzania.

James Kanyotu Is Dead

Kenya’s longest serving spy chief James Kanyotu is dead. He died last night at Nairobi Hospital where he had been rushed for treatment. It has still not been revealed to the press what he was suffering from. He was 76.

Kanyotu led the infamously cruel Special Branch from 1965 to 1991. Interestingly circumstances surrounding his dismissal by Moi in 1991 are worth noting here. It is said that shortly after then Health Minister in the Moi government, Mwai Kibaki announced his resignation from government in Mombasa on Christmas day 1991, then president Moi called Kanyotu and angrily asked him why he had not been made aware that Kibaki was resigning from his cabinet to form a political party. Kanyotu replied politely that he was not aware. Moi asked him angrily what he would do if he fired him. Kanyotu politely replied that that was the prerogative of the president. And that’s how Kanyotu left.

It is widely believed that Moi thought at the time that Kanyotu had held back the information from him deliberately because he came from the same tribe as Kibaki. Those who know Kanyotu say that he was too professional for that and are still very surprised that the man ever got involved in Goldenberg.

Moi seems to have had a phobia concerning Kibaki’s perceived political clout and during the first multi party elections that followed shortly in 1992, efforts were made to dig up all the dirt that could be found about Kibaki. That is when the infamous Mugumo tree quote first emerged. Moi’s think tank spent a fortune carrying ads giving negative “facts” about Kibaki. However it was soon clear that Moi had nothing to fear because Kenneth Matiba who ended up second, trounced Kibaki in those first elections and for a time Muranga Kikuyus were angry at Kibaki because he had denied their man the presidency by splitting the Kikuyu vote. Combining Matiba’s votes that year with those of Kibaki would have given Matiba a clear win.

Back to Kanyotu. The man made a remarkable recovery in terms of favor from Moi and the establishment and ended up being one of the main suspects of the Goldenberg scandal. He was in fact a director of the Kamlesh (Paul) Pattni’s Goldenberg International. This was hardly surprising because a man with the volume of information and secrets on the country that Kanyotu had was naturally a very dangerous man outside government.

In fact Kanyotu has taken with him to the grave many secrets that may have helped Kenyans understand the country better and prepare for the healing process that must follow soon if this nation is to be saved.

P.S. The Special Branch metamorphosed into today’s NSIS (National Security Intelligence Services) that was built up almost single handedly by President Moi’s former aide de camp, Maj Boinett. He moved quickly to get rid of most of the torture experts who had been used on proponents of democracy and who had been involved in some very nasty business getting rid of President Kenyatta and President Moi’s perceived political threats.

Interestingly the current NSIS is again at a cross roads after being misused by President Kibaki and the hardliners in his government to supply intelligence information that was obviously used to rig the December 29th polls. It is clear that NSIS needs to be reformed once again to stop future president’s using the important national institution for their own personal and selfish political interests.

The Crazy Things Kenyans Are Discussing In Domo

In a recent very heated chat session in Kumekucha Domo, our recently launched chat site, this photograph of Martha Karua, the Justice minister provoked very heated debate.

The subject was how the Minister could seat so carelessly. Many ladies made various unprintable comments about her thighs. (If You click on the image, you will be able to see an enlarged version of the picture and the said thighs in greater detail).
Somebody tried to defend the minister by pointing out that the thighs are scarred because of the very serious air crash accident she was involved in in Busia in 2003. But many of the participants could hear nothing of it.

To be honest a lot of what they said cannot be said here (sorry) but you can catch similar discussions at our chat site. Just go back to our main site and then scroll down on the side to the end of the ads and other details on the side bar and look out for “Userplane webchat”. If you don't see it there, scroll down right to the bottom (some browsers place it right at the bottom). Please be patient and wait for the site to load completely, only then will you be able to see see the small "userplane Webchat" window. You don’t even need to register to enter, just key in any screen name you would like to use and login to discover the crazy things Kenyans are discussing out there at the moment.

Kumekucha himself makes frequent appearances and reveals information that he cannot dare publish here. Stop missing all the action. Go to the Kumekcuha chat site now.

P.S. Others are making special friends at the chat site. Kumekucha recently found a very special lady friend there. Don’t envy him please. And not a word to Mrs Kumekucha (just kidding folks, she knows about it).