The question on everybody’s mind is when will the current crisis end?
My answer: Not quickly enough. As you read this my firm belief is that the peace of Kenya is now out of the hands of the two major protagonists, namely the MP for Othaya Hon Mwai Kibaki and the MP for Langata Hon Raila Odinga. PNU are nervously cheering on Mungiki and ODM are nervously cheering on the Kalenjin, Luo and Luhya militia. Both parties hope that these violent groups will help them achieve their objectives. What they don’t seem to realize is that even if they sign an agreement today, ending the current violence will be very difficult. You see the problem with violence is that it begets more violence and it becomes an endless spiral or bottomless pit of violence and more violence. The truth is that negotiations should involve representatives of ordinary Kenyans. Back to answering the question. The violence will drag on for a number of weeks at the very least and for a couple of months at the most. It all depends on how quickly those involved in the negotiations move to address the core underlying issues that are the cause of the violence and were only triggered by what many saw as a stolen election.
To understand the three classes of Kenyans and what they wish for, please read my previous post.
What will happen to the economy?
Finance minister Amos “the stock exchange is not a fish market” Kimunya said with a straight face the other day that the Kenyan economy will hardly feel the effects of the violence if a quick agreement is reached in the ongoing negotiations. He even said that rebuilding and repairing the mess will spur growth.
One does not need to be an economist to realize that this cock and bull story is rubbish. The truth is that the Central bank has been making every effort to shore up the shilling by flooding the market with dollars in a vain attempt to ensure that their well laid plan do not change. But even the Central bank has so many dollars and no more.
Any day now we will see the shilling in a free fall against major foreign currencies like the dollar. I am told that a packet of maize flour is over Kshs 100/- in Malindi. This is just a sign of things to come. But what is even more worrying is the threat of serious hunger. Remember that the houses in the Rift Valley were not the only things that were being set on fire. Acres of maize and other foods were also being set on fire. If it is true that the Rift Valley is the bread basket of the nation, then we know what to expect, don’t we? Remember that even if the peace talks yield fruit quickly, this will help but it will not bring back the burnt food. Brace yourself for a weaker shilling and also to pay very high prices for food.
Read what experts say about the food situation in Kenya
What will happen politically?
Kenyans will end up with the many reforms that they have yearned for including a new constitution. However the sad question that keeps on nagging at me is that how much blood of Kenyans will pay for this? Actually only one man can begin to have any idea when it comes to answering this question. And that’s the MP for Othaya who currently wields the immense powers of the presidency of Kenya.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
The Amazing Kumekucha Predictions
Regulars of Kumekucha have noted that nine out of ten times, I tend to correctly predict exactly what is going to happen next. My analysis which most readers start by disagreeing with, always end up being spot on. I am not one to brag; rather I wanted to give our numerous new readers a little background before I dive into today’s rather detailed post.
Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.
- When everybody else was calling political analyst Muahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in th event that he was defeated.
- Kumekucha kept on calling the coming elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right.
- In probably the most ominous post ever in this blog, on the even of the election Kumekucha I openly shared my fears on the elections and the big danger that lay ahead for Kenyans. Youi can read the post for yourself here.
There is really no big deal here. I believe 1,000 per cent that we are all prepared for certain times and to accomplish certain tasks during our lives. The trick is to listen to your inner voice and don’t ask too many questions.
It amazes me how from the launch of this blog, I have always found myself discussing the issue of the injustices committed against the Luo community in this country and the fact that many of their sons have been murdered. We have repeatedly said here that unless this injustices were addressed, they were a time bomb waiting to explode. I am greatly distressed over what has happened in our country but I dare say that somebody who has been reading Kumekucha over the last two years understands the issues much better that many other Kenyans. And I DON’T say that with a single iota of pride in me. Anybody else would have been prepared.
It is with this in mind that I will attempt to answer my reader’s question about what we should expect in Kenya over the next year or so.
We have suffered so much bad news in recent times so let me start with the good news.
Kenya will emerge from this crisis, a united nation and stronger that it has ever been. Certain “proud” tribes with a strong superiority complex will have a much deeper respect for others and we shall greatly thrive in our diversity. Kenya shall; have a new constitution which will give much more power to the common man and the horrors of the Kroll report and grand corruption where a handful of people own the nation will be a thing of the past. What will follow will be such immense economic growth and development that other countries in Africa and beyond will envy Kenya and wonder what it is about this country called Kenya.
But what scares me is the bridge that we have to cross to reach that Canaan.
Currently the divide between the rich and the desperate is very pronounced. In fact we have three different groups of people in Kenya with very different aspirations at the moment.
Firstly, the rich wonder why the peasant savages are slaughtering each other ) even if they have been paid to do so). They are desperate that things should go back to normal as soon as possible so that they can go back to their previous life and continue to make their money and do their deals. Some good folks in this group believe that if only Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga can sit down and agree to share power, everything will go back to normal and they will be able to have their old life back. Many of the people in this group have made arrangements of where in the world they are going to live if the situation continues the way it is currently.
Then we have Kenya’s know-it-all middle class folks. They are eager for this crisis to end as soon as possible so that they can go back to their old comfortable life. Some people in this group have been laid off and are very angry at either Raila or Kibaki depending on which side of the political divide they fall. Many of the people in this group are regular readers of this blog and are the owners of the very opinionated, biased and sometimes uninformed comments that they leave in this blog. Some of the wealthier middle class Kenyans view this whole business as a game of sorts, that they have to win.
The third group which has the vast majority is the group I will call the desperados. These are the ordinary Kenyans or ordinary Mwananchi, if you like. The problem is that most Kenyans in the other two classes do not understand these folks and neither are they interested in understanding the. This is one of the reasons why we are in the mess we are in today. Fascinatingly despite the hardships, deaths etc. there guys do not want the current crisis to be resolved too quickly. Many of those involved in violence have never been gainfully employed and would love for the violence to drag on for months and will in fact do anything for this to happen. Others are being fed in refugee camps and for the first time in a long time do not have to worry themselves sick about where their next meal is going to come from. I dare say that some of them are feeding much better now than they have ever fed in their entire lives. Very sad but also very true. This the cheap labor from which the filthy rich in Kenya have been able to make their fortunes from. This group dreams of genuine change in Kenya and a new political dispensation that will give them a fighting chance.
In my next post I make my predictions of what Kenyans can expect.
Actually a reader has asked me what I think will happen in Kenya over the next few months. Before I dive into that question, here are 3 examples out of many where my posts have ended up being spot on.
- When everybody else was calling political analyst Muahi Ngunyi a mad man, Kumekucha agreed with him that it was doubtful that Kibaki would hand over power in th event that he was defeated.
- Kumekucha kept on calling the coming elections the mother of all general elections. Some readers mocked him unbelievingly. You decide if I was right.
- In probably the most ominous post ever in this blog, on the even of the election Kumekucha I openly shared my fears on the elections and the big danger that lay ahead for Kenyans. Youi can read the post for yourself here.
There is really no big deal here. I believe 1,000 per cent that we are all prepared for certain times and to accomplish certain tasks during our lives. The trick is to listen to your inner voice and don’t ask too many questions.
It amazes me how from the launch of this blog, I have always found myself discussing the issue of the injustices committed against the Luo community in this country and the fact that many of their sons have been murdered. We have repeatedly said here that unless this injustices were addressed, they were a time bomb waiting to explode. I am greatly distressed over what has happened in our country but I dare say that somebody who has been reading Kumekucha over the last two years understands the issues much better that many other Kenyans. And I DON’T say that with a single iota of pride in me. Anybody else would have been prepared.
It is with this in mind that I will attempt to answer my reader’s question about what we should expect in Kenya over the next year or so.
We have suffered so much bad news in recent times so let me start with the good news.
Kenya will emerge from this crisis, a united nation and stronger that it has ever been. Certain “proud” tribes with a strong superiority complex will have a much deeper respect for others and we shall greatly thrive in our diversity. Kenya shall; have a new constitution which will give much more power to the common man and the horrors of the Kroll report and grand corruption where a handful of people own the nation will be a thing of the past. What will follow will be such immense economic growth and development that other countries in Africa and beyond will envy Kenya and wonder what it is about this country called Kenya.
But what scares me is the bridge that we have to cross to reach that Canaan.
Currently the divide between the rich and the desperate is very pronounced. In fact we have three different groups of people in Kenya with very different aspirations at the moment.
Firstly, the rich wonder why the peasant savages are slaughtering each other ) even if they have been paid to do so). They are desperate that things should go back to normal as soon as possible so that they can go back to their previous life and continue to make their money and do their deals. Some good folks in this group believe that if only Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga can sit down and agree to share power, everything will go back to normal and they will be able to have their old life back. Many of the people in this group have made arrangements of where in the world they are going to live if the situation continues the way it is currently.
Then we have Kenya’s know-it-all middle class folks. They are eager for this crisis to end as soon as possible so that they can go back to their old comfortable life. Some people in this group have been laid off and are very angry at either Raila or Kibaki depending on which side of the political divide they fall. Many of the people in this group are regular readers of this blog and are the owners of the very opinionated, biased and sometimes uninformed comments that they leave in this blog. Some of the wealthier middle class Kenyans view this whole business as a game of sorts, that they have to win.
The third group which has the vast majority is the group I will call the desperados. These are the ordinary Kenyans or ordinary Mwananchi, if you like. The problem is that most Kenyans in the other two classes do not understand these folks and neither are they interested in understanding the. This is one of the reasons why we are in the mess we are in today. Fascinatingly despite the hardships, deaths etc. there guys do not want the current crisis to be resolved too quickly. Many of those involved in violence have never been gainfully employed and would love for the violence to drag on for months and will in fact do anything for this to happen. Others are being fed in refugee camps and for the first time in a long time do not have to worry themselves sick about where their next meal is going to come from. I dare say that some of them are feeding much better now than they have ever fed in their entire lives. Very sad but also very true. This the cheap labor from which the filthy rich in Kenya have been able to make their fortunes from. This group dreams of genuine change in Kenya and a new political dispensation that will give them a fighting chance.
In my next post I make my predictions of what Kenyans can expect.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Strong Case For A New Republic Of Mount Kenya
Proof of America’s role in fanning current chaos and their solid support for Kibaki
Proof that the civil war may have already started as security forces from different tribes defy orders from their superiors
I can’t remember when it first started but recently it has become clear that it is difficult to have a discussion on the situation in Kenya with my Kikuyu beauty without one of us getting emotional and even losing their temper. (For those who are new to this blog, this blogger is the product of a mixed marriage between a Kamba father and a Bukusu mother and has been happily married to a Kikuyu beauty for over 22 years now)
This state of affairs in my house has really surprised me because going into the elections Mrs Kumekucha was a staunch Raila supporter. This is even stranger because she has no relatives in the Rift Valley and has therefore NOT been affected by any of the killings. In fact she was as puzzled as I was at the wild celebrations my in-laws were involved in after Mwai Kibaki was announced winner (despite the tension in the country and the fact that even a young child could see that the elections were stolen).
My 17 year old son has been a great help in sorting out that problem. All he has had to do is ask which side of the divide he should support and that ends the heated argument right on its’ tracks.
But I have been thinking deeply about this shift in emotions and have done my own research and I have realized that Kenya is in much bigger trouble than most people realize.
Ever since this blog was launched in May 2005, our main theme has been the tribal tensions in Kenya which started during the Jomo Kenyatta administration. We have also talked at length about the widening gap between the rich and the poor and how it has always been a time bomb waiting to explode. Few Kenyans have taken us seriously until December 30th.
The strong feeling amongst supporters of President Kibaki is that the crisis in the country has been actively promoted and sponsored by Raila Odinga and ODM and the biggest culprit is the Luo tribe (although in reality the biggest problem is clearly in the Rift Valley). They also feel that the strong anti-Kikuyu sentiments from the rest of the country are borne out of jealousy from the rest of the Kenyan tribes who are mostly lazy and do not possess the same business acumen and enterprising nature of the Kikuyu. They wonder why the Luo cannot wait until 2012, when the Kikuyu waited 10 years as former president Moi rigged 2 presidential elections (1992 and 1997). Members of this community are mostly eager to get back to work and to put the elections behind them but are greatly angered by the calls for mass action which makes this impossible.
The Luo, Kalenjin and most of the tribes in the 6 provinces that Raila Odinga won, feel that they have had more than enough of the Kikuyu who they feel are domineering and completely insensitive to the fact that there are 41 other tribes in the country. The last straw that broke the camel’s back is the disputed presidential elections of last year where to them the Kikuyu now want to rub their dominance in the face of other Kenyans by wanting to rule them by force, even after their candidate President Kibaki clearly lost the presidential election.
What has made this whole issue even more complex is the fact that blood has now been spilt on both sides. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that healing the differences now will take decades at best and there is a good chance that the healing will never take place. That is the reality.
As drastic as secession looks, it is increasingly looking like the only solution that can work long term. Why not give the Kibaki supporters their own country, mainly surrounding the Mount Kenya region (The Republic of Mount Kenya?) and then the rest of the 6 provinces of Kenya (The Republic of Kenya) can also have their own country. The immediate effect of this will be to dramatically cool tensions between the two sides and there are even those analysts who believe that there will be closer co-operation between the communities when they are independent.
There is little doubt that the Kikuyu will continue to dominate business in both republics because of their exceptional enterprising nature, but the difference this time is that the tensions will have been eliminated by the fact that both sides will have their own republics.
The most important result of this bold move will be that it will save thousands of lives and avert the looming civil war that now seems inevitable. Indeed there are those who believe that a low key civil war has already started in Kenya (see this article).
The biggest stumbling block to any solution remains the Americans. Recently there has been a well publicized apparent spat between the Kenyan government and the Americans. No doubt it has fooled many naïve Kenyans (as it was meant to in the wake of increased awareness of what the Americans are doing quietly as part of their foreign policy strategy for the region). Read this article that tables overwhelming proof of American mischief in Kenya and how it has contributed to the current crisis. The Americans don’t give a hoot how much Kenyan blood is spilt and indeed analysts at the American embassy are already keenly aware that the country is on the verge of a very bloody civil conflict. The Kenyan public will make a giant step forward the minute they see the Americans for who they really are.
Email I received yesterday;
Dear Chris,
First of all let me thank you for the good work that you're doing and keeping it real. I have been reading your blog for the past two years and have to admit,it's conscious about the common Kenyan Mwananchi, may God be with you always. I don't have much to say about what's happening in our country now,it's rather evident. I would like to bring something to your attention though. Yester evening on KTN Jioni, there was a very interesting piece of news that showed there's light at the end of the tunnel. There was this couple that just wedded in Mwea, the husband was luo and the wife kikuyu, you should have seen the joy in both their faces, families and friends. Chris, i was moved. This proved wrong very many people who saw it given the history between these two tribes.
One of the root problems to our current situation is tribalism which is deeply rooted amongst most of our folks. Am in such a relationship and it has not been easy. Al in all, we must shun tribalism and see each other as people. I pray for peace and Justice and that people learn from the couple in Mwea. God bless Kenya...
Proof that the civil war may have already started as security forces from different tribes defy orders from their superiors
I can’t remember when it first started but recently it has become clear that it is difficult to have a discussion on the situation in Kenya with my Kikuyu beauty without one of us getting emotional and even losing their temper. (For those who are new to this blog, this blogger is the product of a mixed marriage between a Kamba father and a Bukusu mother and has been happily married to a Kikuyu beauty for over 22 years now)
This state of affairs in my house has really surprised me because going into the elections Mrs Kumekucha was a staunch Raila supporter. This is even stranger because she has no relatives in the Rift Valley and has therefore NOT been affected by any of the killings. In fact she was as puzzled as I was at the wild celebrations my in-laws were involved in after Mwai Kibaki was announced winner (despite the tension in the country and the fact that even a young child could see that the elections were stolen).
My 17 year old son has been a great help in sorting out that problem. All he has had to do is ask which side of the divide he should support and that ends the heated argument right on its’ tracks.
But I have been thinking deeply about this shift in emotions and have done my own research and I have realized that Kenya is in much bigger trouble than most people realize.
Ever since this blog was launched in May 2005, our main theme has been the tribal tensions in Kenya which started during the Jomo Kenyatta administration. We have also talked at length about the widening gap between the rich and the poor and how it has always been a time bomb waiting to explode. Few Kenyans have taken us seriously until December 30th.
The strong feeling amongst supporters of President Kibaki is that the crisis in the country has been actively promoted and sponsored by Raila Odinga and ODM and the biggest culprit is the Luo tribe (although in reality the biggest problem is clearly in the Rift Valley). They also feel that the strong anti-Kikuyu sentiments from the rest of the country are borne out of jealousy from the rest of the Kenyan tribes who are mostly lazy and do not possess the same business acumen and enterprising nature of the Kikuyu. They wonder why the Luo cannot wait until 2012, when the Kikuyu waited 10 years as former president Moi rigged 2 presidential elections (1992 and 1997). Members of this community are mostly eager to get back to work and to put the elections behind them but are greatly angered by the calls for mass action which makes this impossible.
The Luo, Kalenjin and most of the tribes in the 6 provinces that Raila Odinga won, feel that they have had more than enough of the Kikuyu who they feel are domineering and completely insensitive to the fact that there are 41 other tribes in the country. The last straw that broke the camel’s back is the disputed presidential elections of last year where to them the Kikuyu now want to rub their dominance in the face of other Kenyans by wanting to rule them by force, even after their candidate President Kibaki clearly lost the presidential election.
What has made this whole issue even more complex is the fact that blood has now been spilt on both sides. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that healing the differences now will take decades at best and there is a good chance that the healing will never take place. That is the reality.
As drastic as secession looks, it is increasingly looking like the only solution that can work long term. Why not give the Kibaki supporters their own country, mainly surrounding the Mount Kenya region (The Republic of Mount Kenya?) and then the rest of the 6 provinces of Kenya (The Republic of Kenya) can also have their own country. The immediate effect of this will be to dramatically cool tensions between the two sides and there are even those analysts who believe that there will be closer co-operation between the communities when they are independent.
There is little doubt that the Kikuyu will continue to dominate business in both republics because of their exceptional enterprising nature, but the difference this time is that the tensions will have been eliminated by the fact that both sides will have their own republics.
The most important result of this bold move will be that it will save thousands of lives and avert the looming civil war that now seems inevitable. Indeed there are those who believe that a low key civil war has already started in Kenya (see this article).
The biggest stumbling block to any solution remains the Americans. Recently there has been a well publicized apparent spat between the Kenyan government and the Americans. No doubt it has fooled many naïve Kenyans (as it was meant to in the wake of increased awareness of what the Americans are doing quietly as part of their foreign policy strategy for the region). Read this article that tables overwhelming proof of American mischief in Kenya and how it has contributed to the current crisis. The Americans don’t give a hoot how much Kenyan blood is spilt and indeed analysts at the American embassy are already keenly aware that the country is on the verge of a very bloody civil conflict. The Kenyan public will make a giant step forward the minute they see the Americans for who they really are.
Email I received yesterday;
Dear Chris,
First of all let me thank you for the good work that you're doing and keeping it real. I have been reading your blog for the past two years and have to admit,it's conscious about the common Kenyan Mwananchi, may God be with you always. I don't have much to say about what's happening in our country now,it's rather evident. I would like to bring something to your attention though. Yester evening on KTN Jioni, there was a very interesting piece of news that showed there's light at the end of the tunnel. There was this couple that just wedded in Mwea, the husband was luo and the wife kikuyu, you should have seen the joy in both their faces, families and friends. Chris, i was moved. This proved wrong very many people who saw it given the history between these two tribes.
One of the root problems to our current situation is tribalism which is deeply rooted amongst most of our folks. Am in such a relationship and it has not been easy. Al in all, we must shun tribalism and see each other as people. I pray for peace and Justice and that people learn from the couple in Mwea. God bless Kenya...
Monday, January 21, 2008
Kenya Polls Crisis: What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
Kenyans Should Prepare Themselves For A Nightmare Where Their Worst Fears Become Reality
Since Mwai Kibaki and a few handlers fiddled with presidential election votes and stole the election thus plunging the country into chaos, many Kenyans have come out calling for peace.
Even the media has been convinced to censor itself in many instances (to avoid incitement) for the sake of peace. So far nothing has worked and peace in Kenya has continued to be elusive.
Few have really bothered to ask themselves why Kenya has stubbornly refused to return to the peace and tranquility we had all taken for granted, and the media has continued to play games. Let the world know today that when the police chase rioters into the slum area of Kibera and spray bullets into houses with rather “porous” walls, according to the Kenyan media, this is not news. Only the Standard newspaper under considerable pressure occasionally dares to include such occurrences in a major article somewhere in the newspaper.
Naturally everybody is eager that things should go back to normal as soon as possible. After all our children need to go to school and we need to earn a living and therefore anybody who does not promote peace is the enemy (like Kumekucha. Only that most people do not know that Kumekucha wants peace more badly than most, that is why I have been warning about tribal tensions in this blog for over 2 years now).
It is yet to dawn on the minds of most peace-seeking Kenyans that there is no way that peace will come unless we address the root cause of the problem. I challenge you to tell me how else peace can come. I hear somebody saying; by telling the Luos and Kelenjins to shut up. (That is the “ingenious suggestion” of some commentators in this blog).
It is also yet to dawn on most Kenyans that the biggest hindrance to the restoration of peace are not violent Luos or angry Kalenjins. It is not the mass action called for by Raila Odinga and his gang.
It is the gentleman whom most of you saw seated taking notes as he listened to a carefully selected delegation of private sector personalities (most of whom helped fund his campaign) the pother day in State House. That man calls himself the president of the republic of Kenya. If this was not such serious business, that is laughable. This is the same man whose wife slapped a civil servant in public in front of the poor man’s family. Rumours have persisted that the same woman (who obviously needs medical help) slapped Gitobu Imanyara in State House who is said to have responded with a punch that floored the first lady. Security personnel then descended on Imanyara and caused him serious harm, so the rumours say. The most serious issue here is not whether those persistent rumours are true or not. It is the fact that they can be linked to the so-called president of the republic of Kenya here.
This is the same man who during a campaign meeting last year exchanged words with a member of the public over their rowdy behaviour. I [petrsonally thought that the nexyt thing he was gpoing to do was to personally remove the man from the meeting. PLEASE!!!
This is the one man in Kenya and the entire world who has all the powers to end the crisis and deaths right away. The truth is that at this hour when Kenya needs leadership most, this man does not have the courage to rise to the occasion. But olet me ask a question even after saying all this; Who started the fire in the first place?
Here are 3 options this man has at his disposal to return the situation in Kenya to normal.
1) Resign like a gentleman on the grounds that people doubt his win and spearhead the formation of an interim government whose sole purpose will be to prepare the country for a fresh general elections. I guarantee you this will put an immediate stop to the violence and life will go back to normal for Kenyans.
2) To humble himself for the sake of Kenya the country (he loves?) and invite the opposition for serious negotiations, preferably at a neutral place. This business of inviting them at State House is playing power games when Kenyans are dying. He will not need to step down from the precious presidency for this one and if there is sincerity on his side he will be surprised at the kind of concessions he can get from the folks he robbed in broad daylight last December.
3) Alternatively, since the country is already a police state, to stop pretending that it is NOT and to arrest all opposition politicians declare emergency law and use the military to cow everybody back into line. And while he is at it declare Kenya an African socialist country, dictatorship and a monarchy at that and stop this pretence of trying to fool the world that we had presidential elections in Kenya last December. This can also work like a dream. You will be amazed at what can happen when somebody comes out with the truth. It is true that the truth always sets even evil politicians and entire countries free. This oretence and hypocracy is killing us!!!
Now instead of exercising his powers (albeit obtained dishonestly) the occupant of State House just sits there as his wife slaps people around and his policemen shoot innocent people dead in cold blood (after which the police spokesman says that TV news footage is the work of some creative mind on a computer). Meanwhile he is busy using the one single weapon that has mostly worked for politicians, appealing to the tribal sentiments of his tribes-mates, which by the way is incitement and is one of the major causes of the violence in Kenya. The fascinating thing is that he is dealing with intelligent people and some of his tribes-mates have already seen him for what he is and have come out and spoken boldly. (Thank you Maina Kiai.) There are of course many others, some of whom saw him for what he really is very early on like John Githongo. Githongo fled the country and warned us all, only that we did not take him seriously. Now we have only ourselves to blame because we received enough warnings and in good time too. Or did we think that Githongo wanted an excuse to get residency in the UK?
So while the “sensible” Kenyans continue to appeal for peace and calm, both sides of the divide have a number of nasty surprises up their sleeves for us all.
What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
1) Nobody seems to have noticed that Mwai Kibaki is NOT interested in any negotiations. He is the president and if you don’t want to wait until 2012, meza wembe (swallow a razor blade). He has the total support of the Americans. Mta-do?. This evil super power which most Kenyans believe is angelic and can do no wrong has been making very hypocritical statements in public and doing the very opposite in secret. I put it to you that the illegitimate government of Mwai Kibaki would not last one day without the support of Uncle Sam.
But alas, Uncle Sam does not really care how many Kenyan “monkeys” die as long as their precious plans for East Africa remain in place, especially their policy on dealing with terrorists. The Americans WILL NEVER allow Raila Odinga to be president of Kenya simply because he has said openly that he would fight for justice. The Americans are NOT interested in justice, they are interested in RESULTS and it does not really matter what bloodbath happens in Kenya as long as Americans are safe. What makes matters worse is that George W. Bush is on his last term and so “political considerations” are really not that critical.
Mwai Kibai knows this and as a result will not budge from State House, no matter how many Kenyans die. As long as his immediate family is safe, (including his serial-slapper wife) Kibaki would care less of 1 million people die. The sad thing here is that Raila Odinga and company think that Kibaki will eventually be moved by the deaths of Kenyans. So guess what is inevitably going to happen?
2) Kibaki insiders have been arguing back and forth for weeks now over the pros and cons of arresting the Pentagon top brass and charging them in court. Had they taken this decision early, it may have worked, but now as they dither; it is no longer a viable option. But guess what? The fact that they are still discussing it means that there is a huge possibility that they will carry it out. I leave it to you to imagine what will happen if Raila Odinga and William Ruto are arrested. I have only two words to describe the consequences. SHUT DOWN.
3) The game Mwai Kibaki is playing now is what I call the “vulture game”. The vulture circles at a distance as an able bodied man struggles across the desert without food or water. The Vulture is a very patient bird. It will never attack. It just waits patiently circling all the time to ensure that no other vulture lays claim to it’s prey. When the man finally collapses in exhaustion, the vulture will still not move. It will wait for death. Always circling lower and lower until finally it lands on its’ prey.
The powers of the office of president of Kenya are such that virtually all the holders of the office have often confused themselves for the Almighty himself. With those powers and in the comfort of State House Mwai Kibaki can afford to wait until the peasants have tired of killing each other. Until the so-called brave Kenyans are starving and have to get back to work to feed their families.
So what we should expect of Kenya is another Zimbabwe. Hyper inflation where you will need a car-boot-full of Kenya shillings to buy a few drinks at your local. Mwai Kibaki and his cronies do not believe it will reach there. So far they have successfully propped up the Kenya shilling. In fact the shilling appreciated sharply one day recently when there was terrible violence, tension and uncertainty in the country, some investors Kenya has!
The shilling remains bravely strong above the psychological Kshs 70 mark. Kumekucha’s humble opinion is that the Kenya shilling will hold out for some time, maybe even a month, but when it starts falling, it will fall like a heavy stone.
4) If you are not yet scared then what the ODM side has in store for Kenyans should freak you out. Remember that these guys worked hard and won the general elections, which was then “stolen” from them in broad daylight right in front of the eyes of the world. In case you are not a Kenyan and have no idea what Kenyans do to thieves then let me tell you they execute mob justice and kick, stone and club thieves to death. They love to do that and think nothing of the bloody mess. ODM can not dare do this to the rather powerful thief this time, but I am trying to illustrate the anger they feel.
Especially one man called Raila Amollo Odinga. Let me tell you that the man has not even started doing what he knows how to do so well. Many readers of this blog have laughed off the economic boycott plan. Soon the tears in their eyes will not be from laughter but from crying. Watch what happens in the next few days.
This is what I call holding a man by his balls (pardon my expression). What has driven Kenyan politics since 1963 has been one thing and one thing alone. MONEY. Touch or threaten a politician’s money and you have him by the balls. What does a man do when somebody holds him there, they cry for mercy and submit or they fight back with “murder” at the top of their mind. Watch what happens in the next few weeks as the economic boycott is implemented fully.
Remember that there is a huge middle class in Kenya that voted ODM. In fact just half of it is capable of shutting down a number of corporates in just a few days. The really scary thing is how far these ODM guys will go in economic boycotts and sabotage.
I have been wrong before and I have also been right before, this time I pray that I am wrong but I fear that I am too close to what will actually unfold before our very eyes.
Believe me when I say that only divine intervention can save Kenya now.
Oh, there is one thing Kenyans can do, but it is a virtual impossibility. Our Kikuyu brothers and sisters can all rise up and say “NO” to the dictatorship of Mwai Kibaki. To be fair quite a number of them have already done this, but not nearly enough to make an impact.
Since Mwai Kibaki and a few handlers fiddled with presidential election votes and stole the election thus plunging the country into chaos, many Kenyans have come out calling for peace.
Even the media has been convinced to censor itself in many instances (to avoid incitement) for the sake of peace. So far nothing has worked and peace in Kenya has continued to be elusive.
Few have really bothered to ask themselves why Kenya has stubbornly refused to return to the peace and tranquility we had all taken for granted, and the media has continued to play games. Let the world know today that when the police chase rioters into the slum area of Kibera and spray bullets into houses with rather “porous” walls, according to the Kenyan media, this is not news. Only the Standard newspaper under considerable pressure occasionally dares to include such occurrences in a major article somewhere in the newspaper.
Naturally everybody is eager that things should go back to normal as soon as possible. After all our children need to go to school and we need to earn a living and therefore anybody who does not promote peace is the enemy (like Kumekucha. Only that most people do not know that Kumekucha wants peace more badly than most, that is why I have been warning about tribal tensions in this blog for over 2 years now).
It is yet to dawn on the minds of most peace-seeking Kenyans that there is no way that peace will come unless we address the root cause of the problem. I challenge you to tell me how else peace can come. I hear somebody saying; by telling the Luos and Kelenjins to shut up. (That is the “ingenious suggestion” of some commentators in this blog).
It is also yet to dawn on most Kenyans that the biggest hindrance to the restoration of peace are not violent Luos or angry Kalenjins. It is not the mass action called for by Raila Odinga and his gang.
It is the gentleman whom most of you saw seated taking notes as he listened to a carefully selected delegation of private sector personalities (most of whom helped fund his campaign) the pother day in State House. That man calls himself the president of the republic of Kenya. If this was not such serious business, that is laughable. This is the same man whose wife slapped a civil servant in public in front of the poor man’s family. Rumours have persisted that the same woman (who obviously needs medical help) slapped Gitobu Imanyara in State House who is said to have responded with a punch that floored the first lady. Security personnel then descended on Imanyara and caused him serious harm, so the rumours say. The most serious issue here is not whether those persistent rumours are true or not. It is the fact that they can be linked to the so-called president of the republic of Kenya here.
This is the same man who during a campaign meeting last year exchanged words with a member of the public over their rowdy behaviour. I [petrsonally thought that the nexyt thing he was gpoing to do was to personally remove the man from the meeting. PLEASE!!!
This is the one man in Kenya and the entire world who has all the powers to end the crisis and deaths right away. The truth is that at this hour when Kenya needs leadership most, this man does not have the courage to rise to the occasion. But olet me ask a question even after saying all this; Who started the fire in the first place?
Here are 3 options this man has at his disposal to return the situation in Kenya to normal.
1) Resign like a gentleman on the grounds that people doubt his win and spearhead the formation of an interim government whose sole purpose will be to prepare the country for a fresh general elections. I guarantee you this will put an immediate stop to the violence and life will go back to normal for Kenyans.
2) To humble himself for the sake of Kenya the country (he loves?) and invite the opposition for serious negotiations, preferably at a neutral place. This business of inviting them at State House is playing power games when Kenyans are dying. He will not need to step down from the precious presidency for this one and if there is sincerity on his side he will be surprised at the kind of concessions he can get from the folks he robbed in broad daylight last December.
3) Alternatively, since the country is already a police state, to stop pretending that it is NOT and to arrest all opposition politicians declare emergency law and use the military to cow everybody back into line. And while he is at it declare Kenya an African socialist country, dictatorship and a monarchy at that and stop this pretence of trying to fool the world that we had presidential elections in Kenya last December. This can also work like a dream. You will be amazed at what can happen when somebody comes out with the truth. It is true that the truth always sets even evil politicians and entire countries free. This oretence and hypocracy is killing us!!!
Now instead of exercising his powers (albeit obtained dishonestly) the occupant of State House just sits there as his wife slaps people around and his policemen shoot innocent people dead in cold blood (after which the police spokesman says that TV news footage is the work of some creative mind on a computer). Meanwhile he is busy using the one single weapon that has mostly worked for politicians, appealing to the tribal sentiments of his tribes-mates, which by the way is incitement and is one of the major causes of the violence in Kenya. The fascinating thing is that he is dealing with intelligent people and some of his tribes-mates have already seen him for what he is and have come out and spoken boldly. (Thank you Maina Kiai.) There are of course many others, some of whom saw him for what he really is very early on like John Githongo. Githongo fled the country and warned us all, only that we did not take him seriously. Now we have only ourselves to blame because we received enough warnings and in good time too. Or did we think that Githongo wanted an excuse to get residency in the UK?
So while the “sensible” Kenyans continue to appeal for peace and calm, both sides of the divide have a number of nasty surprises up their sleeves for us all.
What PNU And ODM Are Secretly Planning
1) Nobody seems to have noticed that Mwai Kibaki is NOT interested in any negotiations. He is the president and if you don’t want to wait until 2012, meza wembe (swallow a razor blade). He has the total support of the Americans. Mta-do?. This evil super power which most Kenyans believe is angelic and can do no wrong has been making very hypocritical statements in public and doing the very opposite in secret. I put it to you that the illegitimate government of Mwai Kibaki would not last one day without the support of Uncle Sam.
But alas, Uncle Sam does not really care how many Kenyan “monkeys” die as long as their precious plans for East Africa remain in place, especially their policy on dealing with terrorists. The Americans WILL NEVER allow Raila Odinga to be president of Kenya simply because he has said openly that he would fight for justice. The Americans are NOT interested in justice, they are interested in RESULTS and it does not really matter what bloodbath happens in Kenya as long as Americans are safe. What makes matters worse is that George W. Bush is on his last term and so “political considerations” are really not that critical.
Mwai Kibai knows this and as a result will not budge from State House, no matter how many Kenyans die. As long as his immediate family is safe, (including his serial-slapper wife) Kibaki would care less of 1 million people die. The sad thing here is that Raila Odinga and company think that Kibaki will eventually be moved by the deaths of Kenyans. So guess what is inevitably going to happen?
2) Kibaki insiders have been arguing back and forth for weeks now over the pros and cons of arresting the Pentagon top brass and charging them in court. Had they taken this decision early, it may have worked, but now as they dither; it is no longer a viable option. But guess what? The fact that they are still discussing it means that there is a huge possibility that they will carry it out. I leave it to you to imagine what will happen if Raila Odinga and William Ruto are arrested. I have only two words to describe the consequences. SHUT DOWN.
3) The game Mwai Kibaki is playing now is what I call the “vulture game”. The vulture circles at a distance as an able bodied man struggles across the desert without food or water. The Vulture is a very patient bird. It will never attack. It just waits patiently circling all the time to ensure that no other vulture lays claim to it’s prey. When the man finally collapses in exhaustion, the vulture will still not move. It will wait for death. Always circling lower and lower until finally it lands on its’ prey.
The powers of the office of president of Kenya are such that virtually all the holders of the office have often confused themselves for the Almighty himself. With those powers and in the comfort of State House Mwai Kibaki can afford to wait until the peasants have tired of killing each other. Until the so-called brave Kenyans are starving and have to get back to work to feed their families.
So what we should expect of Kenya is another Zimbabwe. Hyper inflation where you will need a car-boot-full of Kenya shillings to buy a few drinks at your local. Mwai Kibaki and his cronies do not believe it will reach there. So far they have successfully propped up the Kenya shilling. In fact the shilling appreciated sharply one day recently when there was terrible violence, tension and uncertainty in the country, some investors Kenya has!
The shilling remains bravely strong above the psychological Kshs 70 mark. Kumekucha’s humble opinion is that the Kenya shilling will hold out for some time, maybe even a month, but when it starts falling, it will fall like a heavy stone.
4) If you are not yet scared then what the ODM side has in store for Kenyans should freak you out. Remember that these guys worked hard and won the general elections, which was then “stolen” from them in broad daylight right in front of the eyes of the world. In case you are not a Kenyan and have no idea what Kenyans do to thieves then let me tell you they execute mob justice and kick, stone and club thieves to death. They love to do that and think nothing of the bloody mess. ODM can not dare do this to the rather powerful thief this time, but I am trying to illustrate the anger they feel.
Especially one man called Raila Amollo Odinga. Let me tell you that the man has not even started doing what he knows how to do so well. Many readers of this blog have laughed off the economic boycott plan. Soon the tears in their eyes will not be from laughter but from crying. Watch what happens in the next few days.
This is what I call holding a man by his balls (pardon my expression). What has driven Kenyan politics since 1963 has been one thing and one thing alone. MONEY. Touch or threaten a politician’s money and you have him by the balls. What does a man do when somebody holds him there, they cry for mercy and submit or they fight back with “murder” at the top of their mind. Watch what happens in the next few weeks as the economic boycott is implemented fully.
Remember that there is a huge middle class in Kenya that voted ODM. In fact just half of it is capable of shutting down a number of corporates in just a few days. The really scary thing is how far these ODM guys will go in economic boycotts and sabotage.
I have been wrong before and I have also been right before, this time I pray that I am wrong but I fear that I am too close to what will actually unfold before our very eyes.
Believe me when I say that only divine intervention can save Kenya now.
Oh, there is one thing Kenyans can do, but it is a virtual impossibility. Our Kikuyu brothers and sisters can all rise up and say “NO” to the dictatorship of Mwai Kibaki. To be fair quite a number of them have already done this, but not nearly enough to make an impact.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
How Long Can Mwai Kibaki Survive?
The angry reaction from a section of suspect readers of this blog illustrates the current mood in State House perfectly.
Why do I call the readers of a blog suspect? For the simple reason that their behaviour is bizarre to say the least. Their comments clearly suggest that they abhor and strongly disagree with the content in this blog. Ordinarily when you do not like something that you see on the web, you move on. Time is precious. And yet this group of readers have stayed on, saying everything they know how to discredit every story published here. They have refused to leave. Make your own conclusions as to who they really are and what their real objective is.
When I re-introduced comment moderation yesterday, this group was extremely angry. Threats poured in as I moderated and I deleted most of them. It was easy to sense the frustration at the fact that things did not go their way. The carefully and well thought out damage they had planned for the most popular Kenyan blog had been thwarted.
The mood is the same inside Mwai Kibaki’s State house as handlers scramble to find a way to keep the Kibaki administration going for another couple of months. Their plan to enforce the daylight vote theft has met with much stronger resistance than they had imagined. Despite the largest deployment of security forces countrywide in the history of the country, the situation is much worse than it was on 30th December, the ill-fated day when a few individuals inside State House decided to bite the bullet and execute a broad day light robbery of the presidential elections.
Still Kibaki hopes against all hope that the whole crisis will somehow blow over and Kenyans and the international community will come to that place where they accept him as their president for the next 5 years. But the Kibaki think tank is up against enormous odds and it is probably dawning on them just how expensive stealing an election can be.
On the political front there is a problem that scares Mwai Kibaki, the economics professor, more than anything else. In fact much more than Raila Odinga and 6 months of mass action. That thing is members of the Kikuyu tribe driven out of their land. Many of our readers here have no interest of history but the colonial government did many things to Africans which they got away with. Things went badly wrong for them when they drove Kikuyus out of their land. You just don’t do that.
This time around the Kikuyu have been driven from their land by members of the Kalenjin tribe. Information reaching this blogger is to the effect that already the reverberations of this land issue are starting to be felt amongst Members of parliament from Kikuyu areas. Chances are high that they will soon start to break ranks with the rest of the community. Kenyans are about to find out just how close and devoted to the land those from the house of Mumbi are. The minute the Kikuyu unity fails, the Kibaki administration will hardly survive a few weeks.
But even if the Kikuyu unity somehow holds, the entire world community has rejected the presidential results. In other words nobody who matters in the world believes that Mwai Kibaki won the presidential vote. What everybody does not seem to agree on is the way forward from this truth. Some say the country is not ready for a re-run. Others say that nothing else can solve this crisis short of another presidential election. Despite the tensions I tend to believe that only this second alternative will work to get the nation out of its’ current crisis.
Meanwhile Raila Odinga and ODM have announced that they have now halted their mass action protest and will now seek other means. Apparently those other means have been leaked out and now most people know that it is going to be some form of economic boycott where ODM will ask its’ supporters to boycott certain products and companies who support the illegal government of Mwai Kibaki. Will this new strategy work? Actually everything depends on execution, but if this plan is carried out well, then it could end up being much more effective than the street protests.
But even as the government has to deal with all these immediate emergencies there is parliament looming ever closer and there is no guarantee that the huge “cash incentives” currently being thrown around will work as was proved by the election of the speaker which the government side lost narrowly despite heavy investment.
Incidentally parliament requires a simple majority to pass a vote of no confidence against the Kibaki government and send the country back to the polls`. Some analysts think that this is unlikely because the sitting MPs would not like to face another expensive campaign where they are not sure of winning. This time, this is not quite true because every member who votes for such a motion will be a hero of the people and will have no problem retaining their seats in the ODM strongholds in such a snap election.
The truth of the matter is that President Kibaki and PNU have lost quite a bit of support after the events of December 30th and ODM and Raila have just been gaining support by the day.
Now concerning money, what many analysts have failed to realize is the huge expenditure that has been used to retain law and order since December 30th. And yet the traditional cash cow of tourism is no more with tourist hotels in Mombasa virtually empty. Tax collection has been at a very low ebb because there are numerous businesses which have not earned any income since before the ill-fated elections. The expenses related to maintaining the peace remain very high.
Experts believe that the government will soon launch instruments of borrowing from the public to get the cash to keep the country going. But one wonders how investors will view a government T-Bill issue in Kenya shillings when it looks like Kenya may end up being another Zimbabwe with hyper inflation in just a few months.
Don’t even mention the expensive exercise of propping up the Kenya shilling that the Central Bank has been busy with in recent times. Predictably when they run out of their forex reserves, the Kenya shilling could well fall like a stone.
So as the pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether this government will make it to 2012, it is simply this; how much longer can Mwai Kibaki survive?
Why do I call the readers of a blog suspect? For the simple reason that their behaviour is bizarre to say the least. Their comments clearly suggest that they abhor and strongly disagree with the content in this blog. Ordinarily when you do not like something that you see on the web, you move on. Time is precious. And yet this group of readers have stayed on, saying everything they know how to discredit every story published here. They have refused to leave. Make your own conclusions as to who they really are and what their real objective is.
When I re-introduced comment moderation yesterday, this group was extremely angry. Threats poured in as I moderated and I deleted most of them. It was easy to sense the frustration at the fact that things did not go their way. The carefully and well thought out damage they had planned for the most popular Kenyan blog had been thwarted.
The mood is the same inside Mwai Kibaki’s State house as handlers scramble to find a way to keep the Kibaki administration going for another couple of months. Their plan to enforce the daylight vote theft has met with much stronger resistance than they had imagined. Despite the largest deployment of security forces countrywide in the history of the country, the situation is much worse than it was on 30th December, the ill-fated day when a few individuals inside State House decided to bite the bullet and execute a broad day light robbery of the presidential elections.
Still Kibaki hopes against all hope that the whole crisis will somehow blow over and Kenyans and the international community will come to that place where they accept him as their president for the next 5 years. But the Kibaki think tank is up against enormous odds and it is probably dawning on them just how expensive stealing an election can be.
On the political front there is a problem that scares Mwai Kibaki, the economics professor, more than anything else. In fact much more than Raila Odinga and 6 months of mass action. That thing is members of the Kikuyu tribe driven out of their land. Many of our readers here have no interest of history but the colonial government did many things to Africans which they got away with. Things went badly wrong for them when they drove Kikuyus out of their land. You just don’t do that.
This time around the Kikuyu have been driven from their land by members of the Kalenjin tribe. Information reaching this blogger is to the effect that already the reverberations of this land issue are starting to be felt amongst Members of parliament from Kikuyu areas. Chances are high that they will soon start to break ranks with the rest of the community. Kenyans are about to find out just how close and devoted to the land those from the house of Mumbi are. The minute the Kikuyu unity fails, the Kibaki administration will hardly survive a few weeks.
But even if the Kikuyu unity somehow holds, the entire world community has rejected the presidential results. In other words nobody who matters in the world believes that Mwai Kibaki won the presidential vote. What everybody does not seem to agree on is the way forward from this truth. Some say the country is not ready for a re-run. Others say that nothing else can solve this crisis short of another presidential election. Despite the tensions I tend to believe that only this second alternative will work to get the nation out of its’ current crisis.
Meanwhile Raila Odinga and ODM have announced that they have now halted their mass action protest and will now seek other means. Apparently those other means have been leaked out and now most people know that it is going to be some form of economic boycott where ODM will ask its’ supporters to boycott certain products and companies who support the illegal government of Mwai Kibaki. Will this new strategy work? Actually everything depends on execution, but if this plan is carried out well, then it could end up being much more effective than the street protests.
But even as the government has to deal with all these immediate emergencies there is parliament looming ever closer and there is no guarantee that the huge “cash incentives” currently being thrown around will work as was proved by the election of the speaker which the government side lost narrowly despite heavy investment.
Incidentally parliament requires a simple majority to pass a vote of no confidence against the Kibaki government and send the country back to the polls`. Some analysts think that this is unlikely because the sitting MPs would not like to face another expensive campaign where they are not sure of winning. This time, this is not quite true because every member who votes for such a motion will be a hero of the people and will have no problem retaining their seats in the ODM strongholds in such a snap election.
The truth of the matter is that President Kibaki and PNU have lost quite a bit of support after the events of December 30th and ODM and Raila have just been gaining support by the day.
Now concerning money, what many analysts have failed to realize is the huge expenditure that has been used to retain law and order since December 30th. And yet the traditional cash cow of tourism is no more with tourist hotels in Mombasa virtually empty. Tax collection has been at a very low ebb because there are numerous businesses which have not earned any income since before the ill-fated elections. The expenses related to maintaining the peace remain very high.
Experts believe that the government will soon launch instruments of borrowing from the public to get the cash to keep the country going. But one wonders how investors will view a government T-Bill issue in Kenya shillings when it looks like Kenya may end up being another Zimbabwe with hyper inflation in just a few months.
Don’t even mention the expensive exercise of propping up the Kenya shilling that the Central Bank has been busy with in recent times. Predictably when they run out of their forex reserves, the Kenya shilling could well fall like a stone.
So as the pressure mounts, the question is no longer whether this government will make it to 2012, it is simply this; how much longer can Mwai Kibaki survive?
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Money Tips For Blog Readers
Why would one seek a reliable company where they can purchase silver, gold or other precious metals and coins or bullion? Why would this task be so important?
Firstly there are not many reliable and experienced companies that specialize in investment of precious metals. And yet this is one investment vehicle that is critical for anybody who wants to ensure that the vale of their assets are maintained and not eroded.
This is precisely why knowing a company like Monex Deposit Company (MDC) is so useful. For those who are not aware, Monex has been America’s gold silver and precious metals investments leader for over 30 years now.
Firstly there are not many reliable and experienced companies that specialize in investment of precious metals. And yet this is one investment vehicle that is critical for anybody who wants to ensure that the vale of their assets are maintained and not eroded.
This is precisely why knowing a company like Monex Deposit Company (MDC) is so useful. For those who are not aware, Monex has been America’s gold silver and precious metals investments leader for over 30 years now.
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