Clearly Raila Odinga has decided to go for the jugular of the controversial government to government contract allegedly between the Kenyan government and some governments in the Middle East. Allegedly because it is still not clear and in fact it is becoming more and more suspect that actually there was no government to government deal.
Now I know there are many people who listen to my shows but this time round I couldn't help but get a feeling that Raila handlers have been listening in very closely to my recent shows. Why do I say this?
Ruto government cornered but desperately pretending that all is well
You remember the video I did on political gorilla warfare tactics being employed by Raila? It was immediately after that that the Azimio chief came out and revealed the fishy and dodgy things going on under the alleged government to government deal. And everybody thought that the previous pattern would be repeated where Raila comes out, reveals a bombshell, and then retreats to the background and keeps quiet again for long lengths of time.
Well, this time it was different because Raila has been falling up on this G2G thing very regularly and the latest is that he has has now started putting pressure for the resignation of two Cabinet Secretaries. The CS energy Davis Chirchir and the CS Treasury Njuguna Ndungu. And currently Mr Odinga is relentless and we all know how this is going to end. Those of us who have seen past relentless campaigns by Raila KNOW.
Let nobody cheat himself that things will be the same again or that they'll be able to stop this by using clever propaganda and twisting of the facts.
Chirchir and Ndungu will have to resign or get sacked: It is just a matter of time
For avoidance of doubt, at the end of the day the energy cabinet secretary Davis Chirchir and the treasury CS Njuguna Ndungu will have to go home. And this is not even a prediction, it is just political logic Let me explain.
And this has happened all over the world with very many governments including the American government. Those of us who are older will remember the controversial Iran Contra scandal in the US during the reign of President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. The Reagan administration looked for scapegoats to get off the hook.
You see the more that is exposed about this G2G deal and the more pressure that is put on the administration of President William Ruto the more they will be cornered. What will ultimately happen is that the government will quickly find itself in a position where they will be faced with two very clear choices.
Either to protect the president at all costs and instead find scape goats in the administration to take the fall instead or to stubbornly refuse to fire anybody and the most likely thing that will result is that the whole government will crumble. You see you cannot prosecute a president when they're in office the only thing you can can do is impeach them.
If I was in UDA I would not waste time over this firing issue because really there is no other option. It may sound brutally cold, but that's the reality of politics.
Indeed in the Iran Contra affair somebody even went to jail. Somebody who was following instructions and orders from his bosses. Oliver North was successfully prosecuted and went to jail and that is how serious it is, but the result is that the Ronald Reagan presidency was rescued.
Now from what we have seen so far the Kenya kwanza government has made very basic-level governance and political mistakes that one would not expect from a national government. And it is not that the government does not have thinkers. I believe the problem is there are those in government who believe they can re-invent the wheel. They believe that some rules can be broken or adjusted to the advantage of this government.
A government is NOT allowed to speculate, least of all on the currency market
I will give you the perfect example.
A government can never and should never ever be in the business of speculation and especially financial speculation. And for many reasons including the fact that the risks are too high and if something goes wrong it is capable of bringing that government down.
That is very basic, but the Kenya Kwanza government immediately it came into office decided to speculate on the foreign exchange market and use their power to manipulate things in their favour.
The government of Kenya speculated that the Kenyan Shilling would strengthen against major foreign currencies and of course this is the main reason why the government to government oil deal was born in the first place. Because the idea was to keep pressure off the Kenya Shilling by getting fuel on credit and paying after 6 months of the Kenya shilling strengthening against the dollar.
The Assumption was that the Kenyan Shilling would magically strengthen once the monthly demand preassure for dollars to pay for oil imports was removed. The weakness in this speculative plan was to ignore all the other factors that could affect and impact the Kenyan Shilling. And so today we are in this big crisis and the Ruto government is cornered. Cornered in such a way that it cannot escape which will ultimately force them to sacrifice those two cabinet secretaries. The sooner the better.
Still, my prediction is that they'll hold out for as long as possible because moving against the two will be evidence of wrongdoing on the part of the government, something President Ruto has always wanted to run away from very fast even when it circumstances were such that it was clear that they'll not get away with it.
However this delay in acting will have its very dire consequences because what will happen is that more and more truths will come out of what is really going on behind this G2G deal. The same deal that Raila tells us has Kshs 30 out of every litre of fuel going into individual pockets.
In other words what is being desperately hidden by the government will be exposed and especially. More so because spiritually we're in the season of exposure since judgment always comes with exposure.
But there are many other things previously hidden from the public that are now starting to be exposed.
Recently KTN the Kenyan TV channel did an investigative piece about the ongoing murder case of the former Finance director of the Nairobi Hospital Eric Maigo who on the morning of Friday 15th September 2023 was found in a pool of blood in his house in Woodley with at least 25 stab wounds from a kitchen knife. Police still believe that there was more than one assailant in the house that ended the life of Mr Maigo.
