A Slip of the Tongue

In the shoes of a teacher whose tongue did a jumble, in front of the whole school and parents on closing day, when he was reading the marks of the pupils for all present to hear.

'Twas on closing day,
When my tongue did a jumble,
Not my liking, I suppose,
But it did all the same.

'Stood up to read the marks,
And I called parents pupils,
Tried again, stammering,
But it didn't help a thing.

Okay, I was corrected,
And called parents parents,
I could see them smiling,
Smiling at my slip.

'Asked them to forgive me,
For I would read in Kiswahili,
There again my tongue somersaulted,
This time my face felt hot.

I don't know what they thought of me,
A tall, good-for-nothing teacher, maybe,
But one thing I know, surely,
All of us 've had a slip one time or the other.

(Drop Ritch a line here: undaunted at yahoo dot com)

Please Forgive Me

These are the words of a man asking for forgiveness from a woman. It takes loads and loads of guts for a man to ask for forgiveness from a woman. Most men believe asking for forgiveness, especially from a woman, is stooping too low and that it is a sign of subservience. However, I say, men of honour admit when they are wrong and, unabashedly, ask for forgiveness (even from women!)

I am lost for words,
Because of how I played my cards,
It's a real shame,
To even imagine.

'can't imagine,
That I did it,
To no one but you,
I simply can't imagine:

To you,
Whom yours is mine,
And mine yours,
I did such a damn thing.

How could I break your heart?
I know it hurt,
Right betwixt and between,
The wound and the flesh.

Oh, please do for...

'can't bring myself,
To say what I must,
(Though, I really mean it),
Please honour my request.

Don't shame me this once,
Lend me a listening ear,
Right, are you set?
Let me spill the beans.

I verily entreat you,
And earnestly ask,
Do forgive me,
Please forgive me:

Oh please do...

(Drop Ritch a line here: undaunted at yahoo dot com)

Is ODM Secretly Preparing For Fresh General Elections?

As the comedy of errors over naming a simple cabinet, being played out at Harambee house in Nairobi drags on, seemingly endlessly, one thing is becoming increasingly clear by the day. And that is the fact that the sooner the country can go back to the polls the better.

In fact there are those who believe (including this writer) that only free and fair polls as soon as is practicable can save our beloved motherland from more blood letting. As usual the political class has completely failed to see the increasing clamor by ordinary Kenyans for fresh new leadership under a new constitution. Needless to say, it is abundantly clear that if the will of the people is continuously ignored and frustrated, we are headed for an ugly class war in Kenya.

But it appears that not everybody is oblivious of the inevitable. Recent actions by ODM leader Raila Odinga and indeed the unfolding of events behind the scenes at the party seem to suggest that ODM could already be preparing for fresh general elections. Probably the most significant change around Raila Odinga that seems to suggest this is the rise and rise of one Dalmas Otieno. It is instructive that in the names handed over to the President by ODM Dalmas Otieno has been earmarked for one of the most significant portfolios on the ODM side, namely the Ministry of Roads.

More telling is the insistence of analysts that the sudden sharp rise of Asian businessmen lining up to see the Prime Minister designate can directly be traced back to this Dalmas Otieno character. This writer is currently preparing a detailed dossier on the man that Kenyans need to know a little better. My report will appear here soon.

Incidentally the rise of Hon Mr Otieno has coincided with the rapid decline of Prof Anyang Nyong’o as a major force and figure on Raila’s side in ODM.

Clearly all signs point to ODM being keen on cutting the kind of deals that raise money for a political campaign, more specifically a general election and a presidential campaign.

But is Kenya really headed to another general election?

The answer to that question should be pretty obvious by now and I reckon that Kenya could well be back at the polls within a year at the most.

To start with the circus that has been played over the cabinet appointments makes it quite clear that there is no way that the two sides can work together. One does not need to be a rocket scientist to see that what will follow soon, even after the naming of the grand coalition cabinet will be endless squabbles within the crowded cabinet room. In fact it has become abundantly clear that even the reform agenda being touted may just end up still-born. Instead we will be treated to eternal drama as Kenyans continue to suffer in unprecedented levels. Interestingly President Kibaki honest view is that reforms are Upumbavu. Raila on the other hand will be hard pressed to push through any reforms when he will be so busy trying to contain the PNU onslaught and put out the constant fires they will surely light all over the place. In any case the ODM leader does not even bother to pretend to be a reformer any more.

Then there is nobody talking about accountability any more. What has actually happened is that we have opened the doors of the “jewelry shop” that is Kenya, wide open to mostly known jewelry thieves. The consequences of this are not too difficult to predict.

Of course President Kibaki and PNU will do everything in their power to resist a general election which would obviously put them at great disadvantage. However going by the mood in the country at the moment, they will soon find that they cannot stop the tide which will be powered by the masses of Kenya. In other words Kibaki and his cronies who are now confidently at the helm believing that controlling the military and security forces is enough will be hit by something they will not see until it is too late.

In fact the biggest threat to PNU and its’ affiliate parties which they are yet to see is in the numerous IDP camps in Rift Valley where people who mostly voted Kibaki are living in deplorable and inhuman conditions. These persons are extremely upset and will soon act in a way that will surprise the political class who are all busy sharing out the national cake without giving more than lip service to the plight of the displaced.

Actually on a positive note that anger is about to turn the Kenyans in those IDP camps from people who mostly voted along tribal lines into people keenly aware of the fact that there are only two genuine tribes that matter in the country. Namely the haves and the have nots.

It really is sad that this coalition government was a foreign idea imposed on Kenyans that will end up NOT working. Former UN general secretary Kofi Annan who fled soon after the deal was signed knows it and will not return for anything, which in itself is very telling.

P.S. President Kibaki was due to leave the country tomorrow for a State trip to India. It has now emerged that the president has cancelled the trip due to the ongoing keen negotiations with ODM over the cabinet crisis. Foreign affairs cabinet Minister, Moses Wetangula will represent him as head of the Kenyan delegation.

Who Is President Kibaki’s Boss?

Grand Coalition Government Will NOT Be Announced On Sunday After All

Will The Real Duly Elected President Of Kenya Please Stand Up

It is unacceptable that as we enter the second quarter of 2008, I am writing this post.

The latest news is that even the bloated 40 member-cabinet will not be named tomorrow after all. Signs that all was not well emerged on Friday when the government spokesman Dr Alfred Mutua released a list of the proposed cabinet and the way they were going to be shared out between ODM and PNU.

It immediately became clear that President Kibaki had changed his mind after his breakthrough meeting with Raila Odinga, just the previous day. In fact my mind immediately went back to the widely circulated version of what had transpired at the Kibaki/Raila meeting. It is said that President Kibaki had reduced his earlier demand of cabinet poirtfolios from 44 to 40 expecting Raila to still protest but to his surprise, the ODM leader quickly conceded (for the sake of moving the process forward) and that caught the president unwares. He mumbled something about consultation and Raila is said to have asked him if he had other bosses above him. The two men then quickly concluded all details concerning the grand coalition cabinet including how they were going to share out ministries. In my view this list still greatly favoured PNU. (see ODM version of the agreed upon portfolio balance).

However it appears that when Kibaki consulted his bosses at PNU, they quickly rubbished the agreement he had had made with Raila necessitating the statement by Dr Alfred Mutua, this time presenting a brand new list approved by Kibaki’s bosses.

This latest antics from the handful of people who have held the country at ransom since last December provoked great anger in the ODM camp and Raila’s spokesman Salim Lone speaking on behalf of the ODM leader quite rightly pointed out that ODM had conceded a lot to get the country to where it was currently and there was NO way he was going to concede any more.

A government statement a short while ago now says that Raila Odinga and President Kibaki are due to have a meeting tomorrow (Sunday) morning at 10:00. Which makes the President’s remarks at a passing out parade at GSU headquarters on Friday take on a whole new meaning. The president said that the cabinet would be announced on Sunday afternoon. He emphasized Sunday afternoon. Could it be that after the meeting in the morning, the new cabinet will be announced tomorrow afternoon?

I posed this question to some knowledgeable insiders and they insist that it is doubtful. The point to the fact that the bridge to be crossed between the cabinet list prepared by Kibaki’s bosses and ODM’s position is very wide indeed. Besides whatever Raila and Kibaki discuss tomorrow morning will still have to be ratified by President Kibaki’s bosses later in the day.

Which leads us to the million shilling question; who is President Kibaki’s boss(es)?

There was a time when it was widely believed to be one Lucy “slap everybody in site” Muthoni Kibaki. But then the first lady has not made any public appearances since the disputed general elections of last December. Could it be that the new bosses have been in office since the election crisis? And if this is the case, who are they? Who are these people who did not present themselves for elections and did not even steal votes to qualify themselves as the final authorities over Kenya?

But even as Kenyans debate long and hard on that question, the civil society campaign against the bloated proposed cabinet has picked up with a vengeance. They have threatened to make sure that the swearing in ceremony scheduled for Uhuru park next weekend does not happen. Their argument and that of the vast majority of Kenyans is clear. Why should starving Kenyans support the big fat bloated cabinet? They are demanding a cabinet of not more than 24 portfolios.

If you want to know how serious Kenyans are, you should note the fact that nobody is laughing at some of the ministries. My eyes tell me that there is a ministry of cabinet affairs!! Can you believe that!! And then the ministry of Nairobi affairs has persisted!! We now demand one for Mombasa and another for Kisumu and why not add every major town in Kenya (while we are at it), after all the smaller towns need a ministry much more than Nairobi where all the big fat ministers sit and action is always quickly taken pretty quickly when there is a problem affecting them (and not the wananchi). For example, shortly after some of them spend 4 hours in a traffic jam, all matatus are quickly banned from the CBD.

P.S. It seems that Raila Odinga’s handlers are keen to portray their leader as an emotionless statesman (which is just not like Raila). Speaking at the funeral of William Ruto’s dad in Eldoret earlier today. Raila spoke about a new constitution for Kenya which will be the number one priority for the coming grand coalition government. Emotional issues like the numerous concessions he has made to PNU and how he will now NOT make any more concessions were left to his foot soldiers like Salim Lone.

P.S. 2 No PNU minister turned up at the burial of William Ruto’s dad. However Nichloas Kipyator Biwott was there. Surprise, surprise.

Who is listening in to your cell phone conversations?

How you can protect yourself

After decades of Nyayo house torture chambers and government clamp downs on political activity, many Kenyans are still extremely nervous about who may be listening in to their cell phone conversations.

In the latest issue of my raw notes, I publish some extremely sensitive information detailing exactly how the system has been set up by security agents in Kenya to listen in to cell phone conversations and also to access sms messages sent.

Few Kenyans know it but there are quite a number of still-baffled Kenyans waiting for their cases to be heard where they have been charged with spreading alarming reports using their cell phones. What most of these people did was to simply forward messages that they received on their phones, some of which were true, according to my sources.

Get my raw notes today and get all this fascinating information and also learn how you can protect yourself and why sms messages are much more riskier than ordinary calls.

Plus the little known secret behind the real reason the Kalenjin love and trust Ruto so much.

* And numerous other heart-stopping stories every week.

How To Get Kumekucha's raw notes every week

I have increasingly found that a lot of the raw information I have I am NOT able to use in the public domain and especially here in Kumekucha for various reasons. I have therefore decided to launch a private facility called Kumekucha’s raw notes where I openly share the very latest hot information I have in my notes weekly, and especially what I am NOT able to use directly in Kumekucha. I will charge a mere $15 (or Kshs 990) for one full years' subscription to this information. If you are interested in subscribing to this hot info drop me an email NOW at umissedthis at yahoo dot com and I will give you further details of what you need to do.

By subscribing to Kumekucha’s raw notes, you will also be helping to finance the continued existence and enhanced quality of Kumekucha.

What Language Is Used?

One commentator here today posed an interesting question that I would like to take up and ask Kenyans because it is important that we all know the answer to this question.

When the Safaricom IPO was being discussed in the corridors of power, what language was being used?

When John Michuki and now George Saitoti are being issued with instructions on how to shoot to kill and torture ordinary Kenyans (evidence is now rapidly emerging of military atrocities in the Mount Elgon region with killings and the kind of torture that makes the CIA look like kindergarten kids), what language is used?

When critical issues are being discussed amongst the most powerful in the Nairobi Stock exchange, what language is used?

When the most inner of the inner cabinet meet to discuss how to deal with “Raira” and those stone-throwing “Mjaruos”, what language pray you tell me is used?

When the issue of vetting ODM cabinet choices (and not PNU because they are all pure and holier than thou) first came up, what language was used? And as the reaction to this well timed demand is being monitored, what language is it being monitored in?

Are you in Nairobi… or Mombasa? Go now to the CBD and hang around listening to Kenyans talk. What is the most common tongue you will hear?

When Martha Karua misses her appointment at Serena Hotel and instead goes to State House instead to receive fresh instructions, what language does she communicate in and what language does she receive the most emotional parts of her instructions in?

What language does the President discuss the most sensitive issues arising from his regular NSIS briefings in?

When the inner cabinet is discussing strategy on how best to play for time and generally frustrate the ordinary folks and indeed the law concerning a grand coalition government, what language is used? When they discuss how the Safaricom IPO is more important than the IDPs, most of whom voted for them blindly in the last general elections (and most of whom speak the same language as they do) what language do they use?

What was the language of choice in the first Kenyan cabinet as ministers discussed amongst themselves waiting for the president Kenyatta to come in? This is what forced Daniel arap Moi, then the VP to take a crash course in this beautiful and well loved language. Luckily the late Tom Mboya who was in the same cabinet, had already learnt it and could even speak it fluently. And that’s because most of his constituents spoke the language.

What is the language of choice of the hardliners within the Kibaki administration?

My dear brothers I do not need people to hurl insults at me or throw stones. I just need a simple answer. If you do not know, just say, I do not know and keep your venom to yourself. Please.

Let me finish this post with two short stories of what happened to me on two different ocassions. I used to work for this monthly business and finance magazine as the editor. The owners of the publication spoke this language and one day I felt pity for a graduate who walked into our offices who had been jobless for many years. I recommended that he be given a chance in the sales and marketing department, the only place where a vacancy existed. Before I knew it, this guy (who spoke the same language as the owners of the magazine) was in the accounts department, and voila before I could say “what is happening?” discussions were being held between the owners of the publication and this accountant whom I picked off the streets, about my conduct. It was of course being conducted in that language. It did not matter that I rescued the publication from the jaws of bankruptcy and made it extremely profitable within a period of less than 3 months.

Actually in all my time at the helm of the business monthly, no article I wrote personally or published in the magazine had a single comma changed. But one day I did a cover story about the controversial language we are discussing here and the community involved in general. The owners demanded that I change the cover and leave out the story.

I was mad as hell, but ninge-do?

Then when my son was born and I went to the maternity hospital to see my wife, I had barely spent two minutes in the place when my in-laws came. They greeted me in Kiswahili and then switched to that language. One of them snatched the baby from my hands and the language filled that entire bed-side as they chattered away excitedly completely ignoring me without whom what had just happened would never have happened.

I was mad as hell, but ninge-do?

Actually I did do something. I walked out of that hospital and was never seen again until several days later when my wife called my office (there were no mobile phones in those days) asking me to come and clear the bill at the hospital and bring her home. I obliged.

I love my in-laws but nita-do?

Statement by ODM on obstacles to forming a legitimate coalition government

Read by Hon Najib Balala, MP, Parliament building, 2 April 2008;

On 28 February, our nation breathed a huge sigh of relief and celebrated with joy as the tension and terror that gripped the entire country was brought to an end through a painfully negotiated Accord signed by President Kibaki and Hon Raila under Kofi Annan’s guidance. It seemed then that the terrible crisis we lived through had, at the same time, opened up the possibility of addressing the festering wounds that have troubled the nation for four decades.

Five weeks on, we are still in the same place we were on 28 February. Not a single concrete step forward has been recorded in the negotiations. There have been endless meetings without any agreements. PNU is repeatedly raising issues and making claims about presidential powers and government structures that were rendered irrelevant by the constitutional amendment and the National Accord and Reconciliation Act.

The heart of the Accord is “real power sharing” and “portfolio balance.” PNU continues to try to circumvent these cardinal principles in order to either have its own way or delay the creation of a new government for reasons best known to itself.

Kenyans are getting anxious and even alarmed by the stalemate. Yesterday’s tear gassing of a group of human rights defenders led by our Nobel laureate Wangari Maathai, who wanted only to deliver a letter addressed to the President and the Prime Minister designate on the need to limit the size of the csbinet, has further eroded the enormous goodwill among all Kenyans and raised fears that the old discredited methods of suppression are back in play.

In the meantime, numerous national priorities that need to be addressed urgently are being unattended to. Chief among these is the intense suffering of the very vulnerable IDPs in their scanty shelters in this rainy season, which will lead to increased illness and death among children in particular. PNU insists that they care deeply for the IDPs, and yet their words are belied by their actions.

Nearly 30 billion shillings needed to address the IDP and related issues were sought from donors two weeks ago. Donor ambassadors told the government then that funds for this exercise would only be released once a credible coalition government was in place. This applies to other donor funding for reviving the economy, tourism, agriculture, etc, which is also being held up as PNU delays the formation of this government by putting one hurdle after another in the negotiations.

So even as it delays the formation of a legitimate government which will allow IDPs and other suffering masses some relief, PNU was in a huge rush to ensure that the Safaricom went on sale without the built-in measures to ensure that privatizations are conducted in al lawful manner which benefits Kenyans, who as taxpayers helped build such profitable companies. It is hard to believe that ordinary Kenyans will only be able top purchase about 40 percent of the shares. A huge 35% of them are going to overseas investors, who will of course be primarily well-connected Kenyans with access to already vast fortunes abroad. More than a quarter of the shares are reserved for institutional investors.

The latest hurdle to the formation of the new government is the supposed drive by PNU to form what they term a “clean” cabinet, through which they are now aiming at one of us, Hon. William Ruto, as being disqualified. This is nothing less than laughable! The architects of the most ignominious mega corruption scandals, such as Goldenberg and Anglo Leasing, are serving in the PNU cabinet, as are others connected to organizing funding for Mungiki. And they are talking about vetting ministers to be proposed by Hon Raila for the cabinet? The Accord makes clear that PNU has no such power to challenge the names proposed by the head of the party.

This latest PNU ruse to raise side issues has a very simple purpose. By aiming at one of the pillars of the ODM team, and his region, these folk think they will be able to divide the party that decisively defeated PNU. Let me tell them that ODM unity is rock solid and cannot be undermined by cheap tactics of those who should be in the dock for their own crimes. If there is any evidence against Hon Ruto, why has this government which sees him as a key opposition figure, not prosecuted the case against him these last 4 years?

In any event, Kenyans know that it is ODM which stands for a cabinet which is both lean AND clean, That is why they elected us in overwhelming numbers. And that is why we believe that 25 is the ideal size of a cabinet, as we stated in our manifesto. We believe that even in the current circumstances, the best size is 28, and certainly no more than 30.

The fact is that we are back to the same situation as we were in 2002. Then Mr. Kibaki blithely reneged on an MoU that won him the presidency, claiming that the MoU was a private arrangement that did not need to be honoured. But this new Accord has the full force of the constitution and our laws behind it, and still the president is refusing to implement the power sharing arrangements. Kenyans would be forgiven for believing that the group in power has no intention of sharing or ceding, now or at any other time, the power it assumed on 30 December.

Let me conclude by saying that the currently stalled negotiations are not merely about the cabinet but about the formation of a legitimate government that will respected by all Kenyans. Government includes Permanent Secretaries, ambassadors, heads of parastatals, directors of state corporations and so forth. The cabinet is only the first step.

Kenyans will not tolerate any further delays in the formation of the new government.

Battle Lines Drawn... Again

What do you expect if you go to your local police station and start throwing stones inside? Do you perhaps expect the police officers to invite you inside for a cup of tea while they calm you down and find out what the problem is? Figure it out for yourself my friend.

Yesterday, in what I am very sure was a carefully timed move, PNU MPs known to be mouthpieces of the party’s most rabid hardliners came out with guns blazing and insisted that William Ruto should be left out of the cabinet because of his alleged role in post election violence. Actually this particular utterance came out hot in the heels of another statement from the illegal cabinet to the effect that President Kibaki should scrutinize ODM nominees for cabinet posts.

Clearly there is a very deliberate effort to isolate William Ruto by PNU hardliners. It will be interesting to see what their next move will be.

In a quick rejoinder ODM came out and asked PNU to concentrate on their half of the cabinet and leave that of ODM alone.

Something else significant happened yesterday. The Anan peace talks collapsed. The reason was a lack of interest from the PNU side. Only one representative turned up, namely Mutula Kilonzo. Meaning that the illegal cabinet is pretty busy at the moment. The big question is… doing what?

The answer is… something more important than the “grand coalition nonsense.” Yep. That’s the thinking within PNU at the moment as the hardliners have taken complete control.

Of course they have totally failed to read the writing on the wall even as President Robert Mugabe seems to be on his way out in Zimbabwe. Most Kenyans are hardly interested in foreign news but spare a minute to consider something that directly relates to Kenya. If Mugabe is indeed ousted then this will be extremely significant. Mugabe is NOT KIbaki. Remember that this is the man who won independence for Zimbabwe and has distributed land to peasants and the landless all over the country. For this reason he was extremely popular in the grassroots. Probably the quote that best illustrates the resolve of the angry Zimbabwean voters is the following one which the International press captured in an interview with a voter somewhere in that landlocked country;

“We have never though of not voting for Zanu PF (Mugabe’s party) but this time, hunger opened our eyes.”

There is a wind of change blowing across Africa once again and the problem with these kind of winds is that they sweep everything from their paths. Especially stubborn and selfish persons with self interest as their only agenda.

It would seem from the recent happenings in the country that we are sliding back to exactly the same position where we were previously. A small gathering of activists graced by Nobel peace prize laureate Wangari Mathai which had gathered at Freedom Corner in Uhuru Park demanding that Preisdent Kibaki should not constitute a cabinet of more than 24, was dispersed by police using tear gas. This is interesting because this was not your usual group of hooligans from the slum mingling with thugs looking for an excuse to loot. This was a peaceful gathering of mostly the NGO fraternity.

Then 3 Ukambani MPs including Charity Ngilu echoed William Ruto’s call for fresh elections. PNU MPs promptly replied that the IDPs were a bigger priority than fresh elections. This would have been rather amusing if the situation of the IDPs was not so desperate and tragic. The truth is that PNU hardliners don’t care about the IDPs, at least not as much as they care about the Safaricom IPO and retaining plum ministerial dockets.

So the question now is; what next?

It is clear that PNU hardliners who are now in total control of the country, are spoiling for a fight judging from their utterances and behaviour over the last few days. And on the other side it is abundantly clear that ODM are pushing for fresh elections but do not want to look like they are the ones who have messed up the grand coalition even before it starts.

And as politicians play their games while waiting for their close to a million Kenya shillings salary at the end of the month, children are dieing from the cold and rain in IDP camps and ordinary folks are suffering the highest inflation rates since 1990. The price for Unga (maize flour) has climbed steeply in the last few weeks and there are clear signs that the country is headed in the direction of the kind of famine that has never been seen in these shores before.

Then there are numerous Kenyans who have lost their jobs and livelihoods as a direct result of the post election skirmishes.

Amid all these clear signs that all is not well in the country, a significant number of smart alec Kenyan investors (or shall I call them wishful gamblers?) are lining up to purchase Safaricom shares.

It is easy to predict the following quote coming out of the country in the near future;

“We have never thought of participating in demonstrations against the political class. But hunger opened our eyes.”

In my raw notes this week I will reveal what some high ranking ODM insiders believe will happen next. Find out how to get your copy of my notes.

Hearty Laughs All Round As Ordinary Kenyans Bleed

The story of Kenya is really sad. Even as hundreds of ordinary folks lined up to start purchasing Safaricom shares yesterday, hoping to make a quick killing, details emerged that may not be such good news for them.

The privileged in Kenyan society are also not aware or have chosen to completely ignore the great suffering going on amongst many ordinary Kenyans that has been directly caused by insensitivity from the government. I have in mind the IDP camps where since the long rains started pounding down last week, life is rapidly becoming unbearable. It is obvious that we will soon hear of deaths in these camps as a result of young children being exposed to the cold and rain. But alas the government’s energies are at the moment fully concentrated on IPOs and ensuring that the Safaricom one is a huge success at all costs, ordinary mwananchi kitu gani?.

Secondly the campaign by Local government minister Uhuru Kenyatta (who has never used public transport in his life) to keep Matatus out of the CBD has caused a lot of suffering amongst ordinary Kenyans, more so as the city is experiencing a lot of rain these days. A clear illustration of the fact that the government has no idea what it is doing, is the introduction of special shuttle buses to get passengers into the CBD from Muthurwa and other far off pints where they are dropped by matatus from the residential estates. These shuttles are charging Kshs 20/- while the old fares from the estates remain the same. Forcing ordinary folks to pay more at a time when they are desperately trying to recover from the effects of the post-election skirmishes. So if somebody was paying Kshs 40/- to get to town, they now need to pay Kshs 60/-. All in all the return trip now costs Kshs 120/- up from Kshs 80/-.

This past week there was a case of a man’s leg being cut off when he fell from a moving train in Nairobi. The man also sustained injuries to the neck and was lucky to be alive. It is said that the man jumped on the train as it passed through the city’s Dandora estate in a desperate attempt to get to work on time. However eyewitnesses say that the man slipped and his leg was caught between the rail and the wheels of the train. He was taken to Kenyatta National Hospital by the police who arrived at the scene more than an hour after the 7:30 am incident. If he was conscious, you can imagine the agony the man went through all that time.

The bottom line is that the government does not care for ordinary Kenyans. Period. And this lack of caring includes ODM which is yet to release a single statement about the IDPs or the suffering Nairobi commuters.

But let us go back to the Safricom IPO, shall we.

You know how the rich and powerful laugh?

It is usually a hearty, forced laughter that has a lot of throat activity in it. Usually it will be accompanied by a sneer and a patting of the huge pot belly. It is the kind of laughter that is unmistakable and tells you that somebody has enough zeroes next to their bank balance to make you dizzy.

There was a lot of this hearty laughter from the rich and powerful at the Safaricom IPO launch yesterday, from characters like Jimnah Mbaru who has made an absolute fortune from the NSE so much so that if he was still having children he should name the next one “Stocks” Mbaru. Meanwhile it is becoming increasingly clear to this blogger that serious threats loom close in the horizon for Safaricom profitability.

For starters many analysts agree that the climb in profitability has peaked off and can now head in only one direction; south. Up to this point Safaricom has had no serious competition to speak of. Kencell entered the market first but the truth is that their management was a joke and they failed to read the clear signs on the wall in the famous per second versus per minute billing war. Safaricom were charging more but cleverly passed the message to consumers that they do need to pay for seconds they did not use. Kencell completely out of touch with the common man in Kenya were charging less per minute but resisted introducing oer second billing until it was too late. In fact they started talking about it being cheaper to order a bottle of wine rather than a glass of wine at a restaurant. Wine ni pombe? many Kenyans wondered. The Kencell European managers, were never able to explain why Kenyans went for the higher tariffs.

But Kencell and their out of touch European management is no more. The recent take over by Celtel has already shown clear signs that the future is definitely going to be a lot more red (Celtel colours) than green. Safaricom are for the first time experiencing real competition.

But perhaps the largest threat yet has to do with the changes taking place at Telkom Kenya. France Telecom has purchased a significant stake and the CDMA wireless system has taken off like a rocket. The huge advantage is the cheap rate calls to landlines. Then there is also the fact that this system is favored by businesses who ordinarily make a lot more calls than individuals. A price war of sorts is inevitable and that is bound to reduce profits dramatically for Safaricom. The fat cats behind the Safaricom IPO have this information and more. Which convinces me that their strategy on Safaricom is rather short term. The shares are not 5 bob for nothing, I can assure you. It is all dependent on the masses buying the shares in large numbers and so many people missing out on the IPO that they will be lining up at the NSE when trading starts in June ready to buy at a slight markup. This will shoot the price up quickly, the fat cats will then clean out and make a strategic retreat and the Kenyan public will have paid them handsomely for their trouble. You know what will happen when the fat cats dump the shares. In fact some of the same fat cats have invested heavily in Telkom Kenya through the foreign investor (details of that can be found in my raw notes. Sorry that information is still too hot to publish here.)

P.S. Here are some fascinating tidbits about mobile telephony in Kenya.

Kenyans are only second to the Phillipines in the world in terms of using SMS text messages.

Nairobi density of cell phones during the day is higher than that of New York, a city many times larger.

It is still a puzzle to Safaricom management why phone traffic between 8:00 pm and 8:40pm on week nights is four times higher than normal.

Most of the government statistics on income expenditure and population are all wrong and are still wrong. One just needs to look at the huge number of cell phone users in the country to prove this. The government’s figures on Internet use are also hugely understated (Kumekucha can authoritatively tell you).

What Kroll Report Says About Mobitelea Ownership and That Of Other Companies

CAUTION: According to my information the ownership of Mobitelea as suggested in the Kroll report is not accurate. The true owners are named in my raw notes. Msamaha alleges that the following companies are owned by those detailed and NOT Kulei.. Name of Company	Ownership Structure
Stoney Athi River	George Saitoti
Heritage All Insurance Company	CFC Bank
NIC Bank	Ndegwa Family
Trans-National Bank	Moi, Biwott, Nyachae, Kangwana, Gideon and five others
A Laikipia ranch	Moi 100%
An Eldoret farm	Moi 100%
A Rift Valley dairy farm	Moi 100%
The Kabarak farm	given by Moi to University of Kabarak
The Mau farm	given to the AIC (Church) by Moi
The Cherengani farm	now owned by Government
The Kilgoris farm	leased by Moi
American Life Insurance Company	Trans-National Bank, Moi, Biwott, Kulei
Kobil and Kenol Petroleum	Moi 50%, Biwott 50%
Nairobi Airport Services	owned by Moi, Mungai and Ndegwa
Rai Plywood of Eldoret	Moi 6%, 94% Rai family I
Safaricom Kenya	Biwott, Charles Field Marsham and Gideon 40%, the Post Office 60%
African Cargo Handling	Since sold to Kenya Airways
Kenchic Ltd	Moi, Charles Njonjo, P.K.Jani, J. Kiereini
Morris and Company	Kulei used to be a director but left in 1992
Capital Project Transport	Boinett 50%, Philip Murgor 50%
MDI Consultancy	Miles Donnelly
Anhalt Road Apartment	Miles Donnelly
A Dairy farm in the UK	Msamaha refutes ownership
Hotels in the UK	Msamaha refutes ownership
Firestone Africa	No Comment
Kenya Commercial Bank	No Comment
Kamsons Ltd	No Comment"
DT Dobie Car Distributors	Not Comment"
The Paper House Ltd	Kulei became nominee a! AGr,1
Rift Valley Agencies Ltd	No Information
Gambit Holdings Ltd	No Information
Great Rift Transporters Ltd	No Information
Sovereign Group (owned by Sovereign Holdings)	Kulei, William Sambu, N.R Pavitt, Secretary: Grace J. Kipyator

Naomi Campbell and Mass Action Over Safaricom IPO

Kenyan politics is getting rather tiresome and exhausting, especially for yours truly. So let’s start this political post on the fringes.

World super model Naomi Campbell loves the Kenyan Coast and that is where she spent the recent Easter holidays. Kumekuchans will remember that one of the most desirable women on earth had a case in 2006 where she was accused of throwing a cell phone at her maid or something. The supermodel has quite a temper.

This was hardly the first time the volatile Campbell, 35, has been accused of assault. Yet another employee said Campbell threw a phone at her during a tantrum in 2001. Then in 2004, Campbell’s maid claimed that her employer slapped her. Campbell pleaded guilty to an assault charge for beating yet another assistant in 1998. As the Americans say, Phew, some broad!!

But even more fascinating was the fact that during her recent stay in Kenya, Ms Campbell released a statement from her Malindi hideout praising Kenya as a holiday resort and declaring it very safe for tourists. That was excellent PR for Kenyan tourism, especially after what has happened in the last two months or so. But wait a minute! Who organized that publicity?

You will begin to understand what I am driving at when you realize where Ms Campbell was staying and who owns it. She was at the Lion In The Sun Resort in Malindi. A mere weeks stay at this private resort costs 36,000 Euros (don’t bother converting it into Kenya shillings, just know that it is a lot of money, actually close to Kshs4 million).

It is owned by world renowned playboy Flavio Briatore. This man has been linked to the underworld. Need I say more, you all know the kind of Italian crowd that runs Malindi don’t you. My point is that you can be sure that Mr Briatore did not do this kind f favour to the Kenyan government for free. Of course the favor will be returned in some way and I leave that to your imagination. Hint: Mr Briatore is NOT an ice cream magnate.

There have been rumours that Briatore and Campbell are lovers, which has been denied by both parties but the paparazzi say they have evidence contrary to the denials.

Those are the kind of powerful persons who deal with the Kenyan government. I must emphasize, the duly elected Kenyan government.

Oh and I almost forgot to add something very important. Despite the hefty prices charged at this resort, in 2002 the angry employees threatened to burn the place down because they were sick of their low salaries which they said were much lower than the generally very low salaries in the Italian neighborhood in Malindi.

* * *

ODM has called for mass action tomorrow (Friday) to protest the launch of the Safaricom IPO after the PNU government completely ignored appeals to delay the IPO so that the issue can be discussed at great length in the yet-to-be-named grand coalition cabinet. Actually the IPO raises too many questions.

However if only you knew the owners of Mobitelea and who is really the power behind the Safaricom offer you would understand a lot of things. Keep your eyes on this space to find out, or alternatively subscribe to my raw notes which has all the shocking details.

* * *

Meanwhile TNK a regular commentator of Kumekucha has the following fascnating observation and suggestion to make;

Having read this article

and the very many contributions by many over the composition of cabinet i must say am still totally in the dark

what exactly is the message being given by these leaders? am going to try below in a simplistic near naive approach

a) that the ministries are not equal and therefore the ministers also are not equal as such some ministers will be considered to be more senior in position on account of holding a more strategic or otherwise more senior ministry or portfolio i.e there will be mheshmiwa senior and mheshmiwa mdogo. supposing that that is true, then why not turn those junior ministries into departments and thereby also solve the problem of bloated cabinet.

b) members of parliament unlike councilors are elected to not only represent the interests of their constituencies in a national forum but to also debate the interests of other constituencies in order to foster harmony and promote the well being of the nation. further, when any of these MPs is appointed to a cabinet assignment then national interest should supersede or be very close to constituency interest and priority. so theoretically it should not really be a problem which MP is appointed to what ministry but that the ministries are well defined and a specific non-partisan and national code of ethics govern the conduct of performance with appropriate checks and balances. kibaki said in his campaign trips that the electorate should give him a clean set of MPs, and as he claims to be duly elected so then are the duly elected MPs who have been chosen to represent their constituents, so why is it a problem to give any MP a portfolio. Is kibaki and pnu saying that only PNU mps are worthy of certain ministries adn why? Is the problem ODM, PNU or is the problem the MPs. Lets suppose an MP say were to somehow cross over, say Anyang Nyongo defects to PNU will he suddenly be a better Minister of Planning than when he is Anyang Nyongo of ODM or will he be rewarded for stoking kibakis ego and therefore performance is inconsequential? if Michuki defected to ODM, will he still be a worthwhile minister fro roads or somehow his credibility will change in an Orange shirt? What exactly is the message? What madness is being preached? if these 220+ mps are unworthy of posts when in opposing parties why pretend to sit in debate with them in parliament?

c) assuming that kibaki finds his distribution of posts very balanced in the PNU proposal, aside from President and PM posts would he give the posts he suggests for ODM to PNU and affiliates, and those he has suggested as for PNU can he give these as is to ODM, remember balance means each team can be awarded either side and it still remains fair.

I hope Annan comes and uses the PNU proposal but awards the PNU side the ODM slots and vice versa and suggests that in all fairness that to be done for the first year and then reverse in the next year. Stupid, yes but these people are also playing stupid games with Kenyans.

ODM Statement On The Privatisation Of Safaricom

Few public events in the financial realm have been as eagerly awaited in the history of our country as the forthcoming Safaricom public offering. The company is one of the most successful in our country’s history, thanks to the investments made by Kenyans’ hard-earned tax contributions.

For ODM, the most important dimension of this and all other privatizations of public corporations is to ensure that the ordinary Kenyan is able to compete in the purchase of shares on a level playing field with all other Kenyans and institutions. These public offerings offer Kenyans not only an opportunity to benefit from their small investments the way the well-to-do have always been able to do, their purchase of such shares also gives them a stake in the future of this country’s peace and stability.

ODM last year opposed the sale of Safaricom because it did not meet this cardinal test of providing a level playing field for all Kenyans who wished to participate in the Safaricom share offering, rather than organized business enterprises which stood to reap most of the benefits. To ensure that this level playing field obtains for ordinary Kenyans, ODM believes that exceptional arrangements must be made for a sale as eagerly sought by millions of Kenyans as this one. For example, the requirement that shares need to be purchased only through banks and brokerage houses which are difficult for most Kenyans to access need to be reviewed.

We also believe that the entire offering, and not just a portion as currently envisaged, must be made available for Kenyans.

There are, of course, a host of other important reasons which forced us to oppose the sale. We moved to the High Court of Kenya to seek orders compelling the Government to bring into operation the Privatization Act and to conduct the intended privatization of Safaricom within the provisions of the Act. ODM had the following major concerns with the Safaricom privatization:

· The ownership of shares worth in excess of five billion shillings in Safaricom by MOBITELEA under circumstances that have never been made public and which appear to have been made otherwise than as a “true investment” by the owners of MOBITELEA poses the danger that these “ghost owners” will now be unjustly enriched. The identity of MOBITELEA and its shareholders is still a secret; having been kept hidden by the Government;

· The Privatization Act was enacted in 2005 to regulate all future privatizations. By the time that ODM moved to Court, the Minister for Finance had not published a notice in the Gazette bringing the Act into full force and effect, a period in excess of two years, thereby rendering the legislative authority of Parliament nugatory.

· The Privatization Act requires Parliamentary approval of all privatizations and sets up a Privatization Commission, imposing standards of transparency to protect the public interest which were not being followed in respect of the Safaricom privatization.

· Issues of equity with regard to the distribution of Safaricom shares amongst various income groups, gender and regions of Kenya had not been addressed.

· There was a deliberate attempt by the Government to fast-track the privatization of Safaricom before the General Elections in December 2007 even though the fundamentals, such as the capacity of the Nairobi Stock Exchange to handle the transaction, remained doubtful. The timing just before the Election and the Christmas gift buying period meant there would be a less than robust appetite for the stock among ordinary Kenyans. There was strong suspicion that the speeding up of the process was being caused by considerations other than the public interest.

The court case by ODM was therefore initiated in the public interest: to protect the legislative authority of Parliament, to bring transparency to the privatization of Safaricom, to stop unjust enrichment by a few individuals who appear to have acquired interest in Safaricom vide MOBITELEA, and to demand equity in the distribution of the shares of Safaricom to all segments of Kenyan society.

The High Court declined to grant the orders sought by ODM. ODM then proceeded to the Court of Appeal but its appeal was further denied. ODM’s only interest in pursuing the case was the public interest.

In the meantime, the Minister for Finance, Amos Kimunya, published a Gazette Notice bringing the Privatization Act into full force and effect from January 1, 2008. He then proceeded to appoint a Privatization Commission. All these actions are a direct result of the pressure generated by ODM’s court case.

ODM is keen to ensure that the privatization of Safaricom proceeds as smoothly and as quickly as possible. However, certain fundamental questions in addition to those stated above need to be addressed.

1. The privatization of Safaricom must be in conformity with the provisions of the Privatization Act. The process should therefore be transferred from the docket of the Investment Secretary at the Treasury to the remit of the Privatization Commission, as the law requires.

2. The preparation and submission of a Privatization Strategy to Parliament for public debate is required under the Privatization Act.

3. The issues of equity raised above need to be formally and systematically addressed. Given the recent problems at the Nairobi Stock Exchange, is this the right time to undertake such a major privatization at the Exchange? In any event, concrete measures have to be taken to address the regulatory and structural inefficiencies of the bourse.

4. How was the value of Safaricom shares established?

Theses and numerous other questions that remain unanswered must now be addressed in the interest of transparency on a subject that it is of such immense interest and concern for countless Kenyans. The only prudent approach therefore is to subject the entire privatization process of Safaricom to the requirements of the Privatization Act, as now in force.

Our aim as a party is to encourage and support economic growth with equity and social justice in our country. As such, the sale of Safaricom through the Stock Exchange is a very positive step forward which Kenyans applaud, but we must ensure that the sale is conducted in a way that will benefit the greatest number of them. We should therefore proceed with the offering within the requirements of the Privatization Act, which will of course mean that the share offering needs to be delayed.

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Is PNU Rather Desperate For The Safaricom IPO?

The reaction of government hardliners to the dust ODM has kicked up concerning the Safaricom IPO is really fascinating. As I write this, I am still gaping in wonder.

I had braced myself to see the entire PNU force coming out with both guns blazing. Woi! Nothing of the sort has happened as I write this. Instead what we have seen is a very polite and humble Amos Kimunya speaking with great restraint and respect to the PM emphasizing to the press that he did speak to Raila Odinga about the IPO and Raila Odinga indeed supported it, just last week. The truth is that neither Raila Odinga nor the ODM are on record has having denied Amos Kimunya’s well publicized statement at the time to the effect that they had met and discussed the IPO with the ODM leader. In fact Kimunya added a rider, to the effect that Hon Raila wanted to purchase the shares on the spot, if it were possible. That silence to Kimunya’s significant utterances must now be interpreted as accent on the side of Raila Odinga and ODM. Let us be serious here, folks. Please.

Interestingly in reply to one question today Kimunya said that ODM should be considered separately to the Prime Minister designate. Implying that Raila Odinhga still supports the controversial Safaricom IPO.

The other government bureaucrats quickly fell on this administrations favorite “whipping boy.” They say, the law gives them no power to halt an IPO in progress. That one really made me laugh. I wondered why the same law does not stop the same government from banning matatus from the Central Business district and causing so much chaos as well as suffering to ordinary Kenyans as they blunder around for a solution. Can you imagine Uhuru Kenyatta saying; “The law does not allow me to stop any vehicle from coming into the CBD”? Interestingly, the latest drama in this CBD circus is the fact that although buses are supposed to ferry people from Muthurwa to town it takes ages because Nairobi still has a serious congestion problem in the mornings even without the Matatus. Could it be those multi-vehicle families including that of the Minsiter of local governments? But I digress. Oh I forgot, all his kids go to school abroad (what happened to the Visa ban?)

PNU are saying that they have no way of stopping the IPO from happening even if they wanted to and whose fault is it? Why, the law of course!!

So why is it that that I sense desperation here? Why is it that I even sense fear? Fear that the lucrative (for a few) IPO may actually be halted. Nay I sense panic. And why, I pray to ask, has this Safaricom IPO been speeded up at such breakneck speed? Approvals and hurdles have been cleared in record time and it is scheduled to launch this Friday.

This thing reminds me of my days as an employee when people in the office used to stop everything to help speed up the accounts department and the endless procedures so that the salary cheques could be send out early. This is further evidence even for those who have a terrible cold and have lost their sence of smell, that there is a terrible odor coming out of this Safaricom IPO. All Kenyans of goodwill should stay clear of the thing. Anybody who cares about Kenya and fighting corruption and the fat cats must have nothing to do with that demonic, devilish IPO. And those who end up handling the prospectus on Friday should make sure they wash their hands thoroughly after that. With soap. This thing which has caused ODM to tell lies in broad daylight… na bado. Remember Goldenberg and how it destroyed so many reputations? Just watch what happens with this Safaricom IPO.

Poor Prof Anyang Nyong’o. This unsung brave hero of the struggle was forced to keep quiet all those days as the Safaricom IPO was rushed forward. Now suddenly when PNU and ODM cannot agree on the cabinet, ODM changes its’ mind about the Safaricom IPO. The same IPO Kimunya tells us they were enthusiastic about and nobody challenged his statement then. Please, let us deal with the truth here. It will always set you free.

This is a good time to introduce Prof Nyong’o to all you young Kenyans out there who were toddlers or not even born in the 1980s. That was the time the good professor was a guest of the State at the dreaded Nyayo house dungeons and torture chambers. The man himself admitted once in parliament how his private parts were squeezed using a pair of pliers (ouch), in a vain attempt to make him sing like a bird to the Special Branch about his involvement with the clandestine Mwakenya anti-government movement at the time.

No wonder the good professor causes fear in PNU quarters whenever he calls a press conference. At the time when Nyong’o’s “valuables” were being given “mechanic treatment” at Nyayo House, the then MP for Othaya Mwai Kibaki was busy singing mama na baba songs and saying that the government was a Mugumo tree and those who were opposing it were like some silly man trying to cut a Mugumo tree with a razor blade. Kenyan politics is very funny because as you read this it is not Nyong’o or the other brave Kenyans who suffered untold torture to fight for freedom in this country who are seated in State House. It is in fact the Mugomo tree chap who is there. Wonders of all wonders.

Let me say it again fellow brothers and sisters; stay very far away from the Safaricom IPO folks. Trust me, I beseech you to do that for the love of the motherland. There will be other bigger and better IPOs after we have sorted out this mess, I assure you, even if I have to float Kumekucha shares.

P.S. President Kibaki had to wake up very early yesterday to make it for his meeting at Harambee house with Raila Odinga. The duly elected president usually wakes up at 11am or a little after that. Now many people, me included are usually in a bad mood when we have to wake up earlier than usual. Could this be why these guys who have proved to be great buddies in recent times could not agree?

But what is even more interesting was the body language and close consultation that went on with Prof George Saitoti yesterday. Here’s a tip to ODM if you are planning to ask for Internal security docket, forget it. Too much work has been done there in readiness for what is about to happen. Trust me Saitoti can not be moved from that ministry. Curious as to what work the mathematics professor has been so busy with? Keep your eyes on this space. Or even better get a copy of the Kumekucha Raw Notes

P.S. 2 Joke of the day (I have never laughed so hard in my life). One of the new Ministries being proposed by PNU; Ministry of Implementation of Vision 2030. While they are at it we also need Ministry To Investigate Election Theft, Ministry to investigate the government spokesman.

Meanwhile some civil society folks have recommended a cabinet of 24. NO Way! That’s too large. Germany who currently have a coalition of 3 political parties have a cabinet of 15! I change my position. Let the new grand coalition government have no more than 18 ministers (max) and then one assistant minister in each ministry. No need for assistant ministers in the Prime Ministers and President’s offices. And by the way the 18 should include the PM and his deputies as well as the Vice President.

Shocker: PNU Proposing 44 Ministries Including Hilarious New Portfolios

High Drama: ODM Now Changes Its’ Mind About Safaricom IPO

Raila And Kibaki No Longer Smiling As Coalition Cabinet Remains In Limbo

Even before the celebrations of peace are over trouble is looming large in the horizon. Insiders had informed me that the grand coalition government would be announced as early as this last Easter weekend Saturday and catch everybody by surprise.

Those spreading this story had assumed that the principals President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister designate Raila Odinga would quickly agree. It was not to be.

Today After what reliable sources say was a stormy meeting that lasted from 11 am to about 2 pm Raila Odinga and Preasident Mwai Kibaki for the first time did not emerge together and neither were they smiling. It was clear that all was not well.

A further indicator of trouble was that some ODM people leaked some details of what had gone on inside Harambee house today. A clear sign that this coalition marriage is in trouble even before it has been consummated.

It is now dawning on Kenyans that the powers that be do not have a reform agenda government in mind. PNU wants no less than 44 cabinet ministers; 23 from PNU and 21 from ODM. ODM are suggesting 34 ministries which is not any better. Actually the grand coalition government should not have more than 20 cabinet portfolios.

One of the new ministries being suggested by PNU for ODMers is a ministry of Nairobi affairs. Amongst other extremely hilarious portfolios that will have the rest of the world laughing at Kenyans for weeks on end.

Actually what has happened is that PNU are insisting on keeping ALL the ministries that they already have.

And in reaction it seems that ODM have moved extremely fast. The dormant-for-weeks Prof Anyang Nyongo immediately called a press conference and announced that ODM are now NOT supporting the Safaricom IPO due to be launched in two days. They have recommended that it be put on hold, until it can be fully discussed. Quite an about turn from just a week ago when Finance Minister Amos Kimunya assured the public that ODM leader Raila Odinga was in full support of the IPO.

So it now seems we are almost back to the familiar situation of a deadlock between PNU and ODM once again.

One thing that has not yet sunk into the heads of the political class and wil cost them dearly in the weeks and months to come, is the fact that the country has changed fundamentally since last year’s general elections. For starters the public are scrutinizing their leaders and what they are doing much more closely than they ever have. A case in point is the Safaricom IPO which is being pushed forward at breakneck high speed even as various quarters rub their hands in glee and lick their lips waiting to reap a huge sum of cash from this historical IPO.

They seem completely oblivious of the fact that 132,000 shareholders who brought their shares in NSE listed companies through the collapsed Nyagah Stock brokers are distressed and asking lots of questions about the NSE operations. It has emerged that Nyagah Stock brokers were already technically insolvent at the end of 2006. So the question is why did the NSE allow them to continue operating and why did the Capital market Authority look the other way?

But there’s more. Some reliable sources indicate that auditors have found the firm to be indebted to the tune of over Kshs 800 million. Yep, approaching Kshs 1 billion.

It is increasingly clear that there is a very foul smell emanating from the NSE and more so from the proposed Safaricom IPO. The NSE is a closed club where a few rich people use the general public to make huge profits using their special privileged position that allows them access to insider information not to mention the manipulation of shares.

Can you imagine a soccer league where the owners of clubs manage the league and are also referees in matches involving their own teams? That is exactly what the NSE is.

If you cast your mind to last year when the Finance minister Amos Kimunya was telling Raila that the stock exchange is not a fish market, you will quickly realize that the problem was that Raila had touched what is almost considered to be a private members club. And even before that NSE chairman Jimnah Mbaru who also owns a stock brokerage firm of his own had told some amused lunch guests at a city hotel that ODM’s popularity would impact negatively on the NSE.

The truth my fellow Kenyans is that there are some games being played at the NSE and one of the reasons why the elections had to be stolen had everything to do with the Safaricom IPO.

It seems that ODM leader Raila Odinga was not quite the push over some people within PNU thought and the next few days should be very interesting. It will be fascinating to see what happens in this high drama. The only sad thing is that the tension is creeping back.

The “Sina Makosa” Grand Coalition And The Mouth-Watering Safaricom IPO

We are going to discuss some very serious business in this post. The problem is that it is bound to upset many of you see-no-evil-hear-no-evil-on-the-coalition faithful dear readers of Kumekucha. Kindly bear with me, my brothers and sisters. It is all nothing but the truth. I have checked and cross-checked my facts and I have confirmed all the sensitive information.

But fortunately, I am not some heartless brute, so to make “the medicine” a little less bitter and unpleasant to take, I have tied this article to African music. I am sure most of you folks out there in the Diaspora love African/Kenyan music and many folks back home too. So do I. My all-time favourite is a Les Wanyika song called Nimaru.

I have a fascinating tale to tell you today about how a hit song destroyed a soul and I was there to witness some of the destruction as it was happening, so I can tell this story first hand.

In my view the late Omar Shaban, of Les Wanyika better known as Prof Omari is the best rhythm guitarist to have ever walked the shores of Eastern Africa and beyond. But many people do not know the story behind the smash hit Les Wanyika song, Sina Makosa.

Actually Prof Omari and bassist Tom Malanga (both Tanzanians playing their music in Kenya then) left Simba Wanyika to form the legendary Les Wanyika together. They were joined by two other fellow Tanzanians namely, John Ngereza and Issa Juma.

To launch the group, they needed to head straight to the recording studios and release a hit. And the song had to be a hit if the new group was to survive. There was hardly time to come up with something new, so Prof Omari dug out an old song that he had composed together with George Kinyonga of Simba Wanyika before he left. The reason why they did not record the song was because it was too similar to another Simba Wanyika song that had been recorded called Diana. That song was Sina Makosa.

Sina Makosa released in 1979, became the smash hit that Les Wanyika and Prof Omari are best remembered for. I watched as the flood of money that poured in from the song completely destroyed Prof Omari. He womanized excessively and he took to drinking more and more potent whisky. Eventually it slowed down his fingers on the guitar. Then followed a power struggle for leadership of the band with the more level headed and equally gifted John Ngereza, which the latter won. Prof Omari left the group briefly but came back shortly after and I watched the latter years of a great rhythm guitarist, a mere shadow of his old self but still a joy to watch and listen to in live performances at the then Bombax Club opposite Kenya Science Teacher’s college.

George Kinyonga could only wring his fingers in agony as he watched the song he had refused to record smashing all records in sales.

Prof Omari passed away in 1997 and John Ngereza followed in 2002.

The words of that hit song that made Prof Omari so much money so suddenly that it destroyed him are very appropriate for the grand coalition government that is now in the process of being formed.

You can listen to Sina makosa HERE.

The main words in the song are;

Wewe unawake nyumbani na mimi ni na wangu nyumbani, chuki ya nini kati ya mimi na wewe. (You have your lover at home and I have mine at home, why is there hatred between us.)

I have impeccable information to the effect that the grand coalition which many Kenyans have placed all their hopes on is all about wacha ni kule hapa na wewe ukule huko, hakuna aja ya chuki kati ya mimi na wewe. (Why don’t you eat there and I eat here, there is no need for hatred between us.)

The first deal is the Safaricom IPO. The owners of the mysterious Mobitelea Ventures (who own 12.5% of Safaricom) are about to make a cool 10 billion shillings from the IPO and my sources assure me that the money will be shared with the principals of PNU and ODM respectively. Indeed many Kenyans were taken by surprise when the ODM leader and Prime Minister designate, Raila Odinga suddenly made a 180 degree turn and said that he had no problem with the Safaricom IPO.

Anybody who cares about Kenya, as a matter of principal should not go anywhere near the Safricom IPO. But alas I am aware that I am shouting myself hoarse for nothing. The same principled Kenyans who are always making noise here and elsewhere about corruption are already rubbing their hands in glee waiting for the mother of all IPOs.

I sincerely believe from the bottom of my heart that the time for us Kenyans to put our money where our mouths are has come.

My humble advice is that before purchasing the Safricom shares, which many of you must buy, come what may, Get a good clean mirror and look at yourself in it. If you do so without blinking, just go out and apply for your shares, but you should never waste our time and yours ever complaining again about our leaders robbing us.

P.S. Here is a question that every keen analyst of Kenyan politics should be asking themselves. The country has recently purchased a lot of police equipment and then there has been an urgency to recruit 10,000 policemen and to get them working as soon as possible by even cutting short their usual 6 month training period. What is all this urgency for? Why should there be any urgency at all and there is a poecae agreement that has been signed?

Think hard my brothers, and without emotion… and then keep you eyes trained on this space. Or get hold of Kumekucha’s raw notes.