What you are about to read will shock you to your very bones, the moment you "see" what has really happened in Kenyan politics to effectively block the most popular politician in Kenyan history from the presidency.
- Abraham Lincoln -
More than just political analysts and activists, these two have masterminded schemes and strategies (most of them very dirty) that have had far-reaching implications on the political landscape, particularly with regards to one man - Raila Odinga.
The Strategic Team and its Mission
From the onset, Ngunyi and Itumbi were handpicked to execute a mission. Their goal was to ensure one thing and one thing alone - that Raila Odinga did not ascend to the presidency. As Uhuru Kenyatta prepared his bid for the presidency in 2013, his team were acutely aware that the biggest hurdle to overcome was Raila, a seasoned politician who had already won the 2007 presidential elections (the real figures seen by this writer show by a significant landslide) but had yet to occupy State House.
Data Analysis and the 'Tyranny of Numbers'
Among the strategies they employed was the use of advanced political data analysis, primarily sourced from British specialists. The data confirmed that Raila was an imposing figure in the media, dominating the airwaves like a colossus. The team realised that to beat him, they would have to dethrone him from this position of influence. This gave birth to an ahead-of-its-time social media strategy, with Ngunyi providing the core ideas and Itumbi executing them aggressively across various platforms.
The strategy's most potent weapon was the propagation of a narrative known as the 'tyranny of numbers'. This narrative was used to pave the way for manipulating the 2013 polls in favour of Uhuru. The Kenyan populace was led to believe in this 'tyranny', and as a result, were far more accepting of the election results that handed Uhuru the presidency, despite claims of rigging.
You may remember it, a narrative that swept across Kenya during the 2013 elections, a seemingly harmless theory that turned out to be a cunning plot. It was the 'Tyranny of Numbers' theory, strategically proposed by Mutahi Ngunyi and spread far and wide and solidified on social media by Dennis Itumbi.
The Tyranny of Numbers
It was a simple hypothesis, yet stunning in its audacity. According to Ngunyi's false theory, the presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, stood no chance of winning without the Kikuyu vote. Now, this was where the craftiness came in. The incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, already had the backing of both the Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes, thanks to his running mate, William Ruto. The subtext was clear: Raila was destined to lose.
On the surface, it was just a theory, but the implications were profound. It was a clever manipulation that aimed to sway public opinion, and it worked wonders. The narrative was so convincing that it became accepted as fact, tilting the scales in favour of Uhuru.
Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other.
- Oscar Ameringer
How the Theory Played Out
In the grand scheme of politics, this was an ingenious play. With the 'Tyranny of Numbers' theory, Ngunyi and Itumbi built a psychological fortress around the Uhuru camp. They created an impression that defeat was inevitable for Raila, thereby encouraging voters to side with the 'winning team'. This psychological manipulation undoubtedly swayed millions of voters to Uhuru's side. In Tyranny of False Narratives Chris Kumekucha lays bare all the backroom "movie" scenes and describes them in great detail. Starting from The Chancery office that was full of mzungus staring into computer screens to the dirty tricks that unraveled deep inside State house. Even as Kenyans on both sides of the political divide were completely unaware of what was really happening which was going to impact us all in a very major irreversible way. And then there was that unforgettable scene of Itumbi disconnecting Uhuru Kenyatta's calls several times, when he called the first time, not believing that it was indeed Uhuru calling.
The Fallout
However, such crafty political manoeuvres often have a sting in the tail. The 'Tyranny of Numbers' theory is today more or less debunked as a myth, bringing into question the integrity of its proponents. Yet, it served its purpose, and the elections were won.
Although it may seem like a distant memory now, the 'Tyranny of Numbers' saga serves as a stark reminder of the power of perception in politics, and how easily it can be manipulated by crafty players like Ngunyi and Itumbi. So the next time you encounter a seemingly harmless theory, remember to scrutinise it carefully; you never know how it could shape the political landscape.
Can the same political trickery be used to save the Ruto presidency?
Politics, the crafty game of strategy and manipulation, is nothing if not unpredictable. The strategies that worked in yesterday's match may not work in today's. But who's to say they won't, especially if we're talking about the masterminds behind the scenes - Ngunyi and Itumbi being back on the same team (after the recent dramatic announcement by Ngunyi that he was now back in the Ruto camp. Can the same political trickery be used again, this time to secure the Ruto presidency?
In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.
- Napoleon Bonaparte
Understanding the Art of Political Fixing
"The key was always to make Raila seem like the problem and not the solution. The narrative that was spun was that he was a man of the past, a relic from an era that Kenya had moved on from," says a political insider.
This narrative was then reinforced through a series of tactical manoeuvres, from strategic alliances to media manipulation.
Can The Same Strategy Work for Ruto?
Deconstructing the fixing of Raila provides some intriguing insights into how the same strategies might be used to secure a Ruto presidency. Could the same political trickery be used again? That is the nightmare of a vast majority of Kenyans.
The answer to that difficult question will shine through when you read Chris Kumekucha's latest book, Tyranny of false narratives.
What those who have read the book so far say;
Hi Chris,
